Lebanon’s political landscape has undergone a dramatic shift with the election of Joseph Aoun as president. After more than two years of political deadlock, the Lebanese Parliament elected the army commander on Thursday with 99 out of 128 votes. 

Aoun’s election represents a significant achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp, reflecting the weakening influence of the powerful Shia terrorist organization within Lebanon’s political system. Despite this, experts say Hezbollah remains a formidable force in the country, and the challenges Aoun faces in balancing Lebanon’s internal politics and foreign relations remain immense.

For much of the past two years, Hezbollah worked tirelessly to block any movement toward the election of a new president. The group had strongly opposed Aoun’s candidacy. However, as the political situation evolved and the ousting of Assad from Syria unfolded, Hezbollah was ultimately forced to accept Aoun, who secured the presidency. 

“Hezbollah had been opposed to his election for the last two and a half years and had blocked any process toward electing a president for all that time. Now, they’ve voted for him in the second round, which indicates they are in a bind, that they are weaker, and their leverage is not what it was,” Vice President for International Engagement at the Middle East Institute Paul Salem told Fox News Digital.

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Salem points to the broader shift in regional politics, notably the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which has left Hezbollah increasingly isolated. “They are now not only cut off from Iran, but they’re also isolated in the region. They’re the only Shiite community between here and Basra, and it’s a Sunni takeover of Damascus, which used to be dominated by a friendly Alawite, pro-Iranian regime. It’s a huge historic shift that leaves the Shiites and Hezbollah deeply isolated. Hezbollah’s future is worse than its present,” he added.

The U.S. and Israel, along with other Western and Arab powers, have long sought to distance Lebanon from Hezbollah’s influence, and Aoun’s election could be a step in that direction.

Aoun, a Maronite Christian and the commander of the Lebanese army, took office with a strong message focused on Lebanon’s sovereignty. In his inaugural speech, he emphasized the necessity for the state to have a monopoly on the use of force.

David Schenker, former head of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. State Department under the first Trump administration, remarked that Aoun’s speech was both a positive and pragmatic step for Lebanon. “He talked about disarming all groups and ensuring that weapons are under the control of the state,” Schenker said. “This was a good move, as it shows a commitment to sovereignty and the rule of law.”

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An updated graphic detailing the members of Hezbollah’s leadership who have been eliminated by the Israeli Defense Forces. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

However, Schenker, who is currently the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, cautioned that Aoun’s position as president does not grant him absolute power in Lebanon’s political system. “The president is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The key position will be the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Aoun will show the same courage in his new role that he demonstrated as chief of staff,” Schenker noted.

Though Hezbollah has been militarily weakened by recent Israeli campaigns and the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other key leaders, it still retains significant influence, particularly in southern Lebanon. However, Schenker says the organization’s ability to intimidate Lebanon’s population is diminishing. “Hezbollah isn’t the force it was. It can still reactivate its killing machine if needed, but it no longer dominates the way it did before,” he said.

“Hezbollah has calculated that they’ve lost this battle against Israel, and then they lost another battle in Syria. So their interest now is to lay low, have a president and government that’s acceptable to the U.S. and the region, which, at the end of the day, they hope will protect them from any further Israeli incursions and help their people,” Salem explained. “They need a functioning government to secure international aid for the millions displaced by their actions in southern Lebanon. It’s about survival for them, not just politically, but financially.”

Hezbollah terrorists form a human barrier during the funeral procession of slain top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Aug. 1, 2024. (Photo by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Aoun’s election is not only significant for Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon, but also for the country’s relations with external powers like the U.S. and Israel. Lebanon has faced economic collapse, with its currency devalued by over 99%, and nearly 80% of the population now living below the poverty line. Hezbollah’s previous resistance to international pressure now seems less tenable.

The U.S. has long supported Lebanon’s military and is expected to strengthen its ties with Aoun, given his role in the army and his pro-sovereignty stance. Schenker said that Lebanon’s future alignment with the U.S. and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia could provide the country with much-needed international support.

Lebanese cabinet ministers applaud the newly-elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, standing at the top, as he gives his first speech at Parliament after being sworn in as president in Beirut on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

“The U.S. military has been close to the Lebanese military for many years,” Salem told Fox News Digital. “That has been the strongest link between the U.S. and Lebanon. So to have the head of the military come to power, he’s a known figure in Washington. He’s known to the military, and now, he’s known to the diplomats and politicians, and will be known to President Trump and others over time. This realignment could put Lebanon on a much more natural path of cooperation with the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and other regional allies.”

Israel will also be closely monitoring Aoun’s presidency. Schenker said that Aoun’s commitment to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for disarmament in southern Lebanon, could lead to a more cooperative stance from Lebanon toward Israel. “Israel will be invested in Lebanon’s implementation of 1701,” Schenker said. “Aoun’s stance will influence Israel’s position toward Lebanon, as the Trump administration has clearly signaled a desire to end the wars in the region.”

The Polish government has guaranteed that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested if he attends the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp, despite the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant against him.

Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, from the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), this week wrote to the government requesting that Netanyahu not be arrested if he decides to attend the Auschwitz commemoration on 27 January, according to a presidential aide.

The office of Prime Minister Donald Tusk published a resolution on Thursday saying it would ensure the “safe participation of the leaders of Israel in the commemorations”.

“I confirm, whether it is the prime minister, the president or the minister — as it is currently declared — of education of Israel, whoever will come to Oswiecim for the celebrations in Auschwitz will be assured of safety and will not be detained,” Tusk said.

Tusk made clear that the resolution was “precise” and only applied to the Auschwitz commemorations.

“It is also very important for us that Poland is not among those countries that openly and demonstratively want to disregard the decisions of international tribunals,” he added.

The ICC issued arrest warrants in November for Netanyahu and his ex-defence minister, as well as a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the 15-month war in Gaza.

Member countries of the ICC, such as Poland, are required to detain suspects facing a warrant if they set foot on their soil, but the court has no way to enforce that. Israel is not a member of the ICC and disputes its jurisdiction.

The court has more than 120 member states, although some countries, including France and Hungary, have already said that they would not arrest him. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán even said he would defy the warrant by inviting Netanyahu to Budapest.

It is unclear whether Netanyahu plans to attend the commemoration later this month, although he has been present at previous anniversary events at Auschwitz.

Poland’s Foreign Ministry, in response to an email query, said on Thursday that “it has not received any information so far indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going to attend the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz.”

The commemoration will be attended by international officials and elderly survivors. It is to take place in Oswiecim, a town that was under German occupation during World War II where the Nazi German forces operated the most notorious of their death camps.

More than 1.1 million people were murdered at Auschwitz. Historians say that most of them, about a million, were Jewish, but the victims also included Poles, Roma, Soviet prisoners of war, and others.

At least 3 million of Poland’s 3.2 million Jews were murdered by the Nazis, accounting for about half of the Jews killed in the Holocaust.

Additional sources • AP

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