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Russia’s Brutal War Calculus

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Russia’s Brutal War Calculus

Two years of war have remade Russia.

Isolated from the West, it is now more dependent on China. Political repression is reminiscent of the grim days of the Soviet Union.

But Russia is not the economic shambles many in the West predicted when they imposed punishing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are pulling down their highest incomes in years.

Russian society has been refashioned in ways that have devastated some and lifted others. While government critics languish in jail and young men die in trenches at the front, other Russians — especially those willing to spout the official line — are feeling more optimistic than ever.

Here is a look at how Russia at war has changed — suffering enormous costs by some metrics but faring better than expected by others.

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Daily Life

People fled Russia in droves after the invasion and draft, more than 820,000, although some returned.

Alcoholics were diagnosed in higher numbers after more than a decade of steady declines.

Demand for psychologists increased by more than 60% in the first year of the war.

Traffic to Facebook and Instagram dropped after Russia blocked them, and use of Telegram and secure platforms like VPNs surged.

Travel abroad plummeted from pre-pandemic days.

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But people are making higher wages as men deployed to the front reduce the ranks of workers back home.

And Russians are shelling out on new homes, helped by generous government subsidies.

Despite the ways that life has changed, many people say they feel positive about how President Vladimir Putin is doing. His popularity surged as the war began and is now at its highest level in seven years.

Questions remain about how honest people feel they can be in polls, given the risks. And polls have signaled, too, that a substantial number would like the war to end. But Mr. Putin has convinced many that in invading Ukraine, Russia is defending itself against an existential threat from the West.

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The Economy

Mr. Putin went into the war with his financial house in order.

Government debt was low. Funds were stashed away. And a team of agile technocrats were on hand to fend off a crisis.

After an initial shock, the Russian system recovered, thanks in part to emergency financial measures, high oil prices and trade with China and India. Moscow also greatly increased state spending.

Collectively, Russia has created its own wartime economy.

Trade with Europe dropped by about 65% after Western sanctions.

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Toyotas and VWs, once popular, disappeared from car assembly lines.

But trade with China, India and Turkey boomed.

By last year, Chinese cars made up six of the top 10 car brands in Russia.

The G.D.P. overall was driven up last year by an enormous war-related government stimulus.

Unemployment dropped.

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And more than two-thirds of Russians say their economic well-being is the same or better.

But inflation shot up too.

The economy is now in danger of overheating. The mortgage subsidies could be fueling a housing bubble. And the market is still off-kilter in some sectors, with shortages of certain medicines, for example, and dramatic reductions in car production.

If oil prices plunge, Russia will struggle. If the military spending spree ends, all bets are off. Russia can sustain warfare in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, but its long-term economic future is in doubt.

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Support for the War

For the moment, at least, the resilient economy has boosted Mr. Putin. And a campaign of propaganda and repression have allowed him to reign virtually unchallenged.

As nationalist songs top the charts — “I am Russian, out of spite to the whole world,” goes one — less attention is being paid to the news. And the government plans to spend $500 million on “patriotic education” this year, including for a goose-stepping “youth army.”

The percentage of people saying the country is moving in the right direction is the highest in decades, 71% last month.

Support for Russian military actions in Ukraine is even higher, though many Russians have indicated that they aren’t comfortable sharing their opinion about the war.

Repression of those opposing the war is widespread.

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Treason convictions nearly tripled.

The war has accelerated a crackdown on the L.G.B.T.Q. community.

Soviet-style denunciations are back, as Russians report “unpatriotic” behavior by fellow citizens to the authorities.

Freedom of assembly has been obliterated, with nearly 20,000 Russians detained for their antiwar stance.

Independent journalists have been forced to flee, and many have been declared foreign agents.

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Mr. Putin’s best-known critic, Aleksei A. Navalny, died after years of inhumane treatment in prison.

The number of prisoners in Russia has actually decreased dramatically.

But that’s primarily because many were recruited to fight, and often die, in Ukraine.

Blood and Treasure

In the early months of the war, Mr. Putin’s military made grave mistakes, but it has regrouped. Russia fended off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive and has taken the initiative on the front, buoyed by frozen American aid for Ukraine.

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Still, Russia has sustained huge costs to get this far. It is far from controlling the four regions it claims to have annexed, let alone the rest of Ukraine, and Mr. Putin may need to carry out another draft.

He claims he would like to negotiate an end to the war, but skeptics see that as a ploy to undercut Western aid to Ukraine.

Moscow has made increasing gains in recent weeks. It now controls about 18 percent of Ukraine, up from 7 percent before the full-scale invasion.

But its control of Ukraine is down from the 27 percent Russian forces once occupied at their height.

The progress is coming at a higher cost. Military spending has eclipsed social spending at the federal level for the first time in Russia’s 32-year post-Soviet history. It makes up about a third of the national budget.

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Some 60,000 Russians have been killed in the fighting, according to U.S. officials.

That’s two Russian soldiers for every square mile taken from Ukraine since the invasion.

The popularity of the war appears to ebb when it comes to support for the draft. Only 36% of Russians support another mobilization to replenish forces.

To replenish its ranks, Russia has been targeting prisons and poorer regions for recruits.

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Soldiers in Ukraine are earning roughly three times the average Russian salary — and in many cases more. Compensation to families of soldiers who die in Ukraine can be more than $84,000, more than nine times the average annual Russian salary.

But despite their stated support for the war, many Russians would be happy for it to end. Half of Russians say they want to start peace talks.

Sources

People fleeing Russia: Re:Russia

Diagnoses of alcohol dependence in 2022: Rosstat

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Psychologist demand: Psychodemia, Alter, HeadHunter

Facebook, Instagram, Telegram and VPN use: Mediascope, AppMagic

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Foreign travel: Russian Border Service, Association of Tour Operators

Patriotic education: Russian federal budget

Putin’s popularity: Levada Center

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Share of Russians paying attention to the war: Levada Center

Trade with Europe: Eurostat

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Trade with China, India and Turkey: Bruegel

Russia’s well-being: NORC at the University of Chicago

Inflation: Bank of Russia

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People saying the country is moving in the right direction: Levada Center

Treason convictions, 2021 compared with 2023: Pervy Otdel, Supreme Court of Russia

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Number of prisoners: Russian Ministry of Justice

Control of territory in Ukraine: Institute for the Study of War

Military spending: Russian Ministry of Finance

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War deaths: U.S. officials

Support for the draft: Russian Field

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Support for peace talks: Levada Center

World

Netflix Unveils Turkish Slate, Headlined by Series Adaptation of Nobel Prize-Winning Author Orhan Pamuk’s ‘The Museum of Innocence’

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Netflix Unveils Turkish Slate, Headlined by Series Adaptation of Nobel Prize-Winning Author Orhan Pamuk’s ‘The Museum of Innocence’

Netflix has unveiled its Turkish production slate for 2026, which is headlined by a hotly anticipated series adaptation of Turkish Nobel Prize-winning author Orhan Pamuk acclaimed book “The Museum Of Innocence” and several other high-end shows with international reach.

The previously announced nine-episode “Museum of Innocence” series – that will drop on Netflix Feb. 13 – starts out in 1970’s Istanbul where a wealthy man named Kemal becomes romantically obsessed with his poor and distant young relative, a shopgirl named Füsun. Their romance unfolds over a decade against the backdrop of the changing city, after which he spends the rest of his life creating a museum in her memory that contains “his beloved’s earrings, her hair clips, and even her discarded cigarette butts,” as the synopsis puts it.

Directed by Zeynep Günay, “Museum of Innocence” is written by Ertan Kurtulan and produced by Turkish TV Powerhouse Ay Yapım known for International Emmy-winning series “Endless Love,” and also “Fatmagul,” “Ezel” and “Forbidden Love,” among other global hit series.

Other standout titles in Netflix’s new Turkish that have not been previously announced comprise:

— “Seni Tanıyorum,” a series written by Tuğba Doğan (“Hepimiz Birimiz Için”), directed by Mert Baykal (“Hot Skull”) and produced by Bonbon Studios. “After taking a break from painting following childbirth, Funda finds the nanny she has been searching for,” reads the synopsis. “But the mystery and unsettling nature of Nazlı begins to change the lives of Funda and her husband İlker forever. What starts as a simple encounter turns into a long-running game in which each of them is tested in their loyalty and desires.”

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— “Sonra Gözler Görür,” a series penned by Ece Yörenç (“Fallen Leaves,” “Forbidden Love”), directed by  Bertan Başaran (“Shahmaran”) and produced by Ay Yapim. “A quiet coastal town is shaken by the mysterious death of a young girl. When a renowned journalist returns to the place she grew up years later to investigate the case, her search uncovers not only a killer, but long-buried secrets and the truth about her own past,” the synopsis says.

New upcoming 2026 instalments of popular pre-existing Netflix Turkey originals shows include fresh seasons of “Ethos,” “Money Trap,” “Thank You, Next,” “Another Self” and Graveyard.”

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Iran accused of sex assaults on teenage prisoners, while families charged to recover remains of loved ones

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Iran accused of sex assaults on teenage prisoners, while families charged to recover remains of loved ones

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Reports have emerged from eyewitnesses in Iran alleging sexual assaults on teenagers held in custody, as well as authorities forcing families of those protesters killed to pay as much as 10 billion rials to recover their bodies.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI-US) also told Fox News Digital Wednesday that the “barbarity continues” across the nation, with prison detainees allegedly being killed and their bodies burned.

The reports came as Iran’s government claimed it had successfully crushed weeks of unrest that swept the country.

Beginning Dec. 28, the protests erupted amid deep public anger over political repression, economic hardship and state violence before rapidly expanding nationwide.

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LINDSEY GRAHAM SPEAKS AGAINST PENDING EXECUTION OF 26-YEAR-OLD IRANIAN PROTESTER: ‘THIS REGIME MUST FALL’

Iranian demonstrators gather in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency’s value, in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026.  (Stringer/WANA/Reuters)

“The sedition is over now,” Iran’s prosecutor general Mohammad Movahedi said, according to the judiciary’s Mizan News Agency.

“And we must be grateful, as always, to the people who extinguished this sedition by being in the field in a timely manner,” he added, according to the New York Times.

The regime’s claims emerged on day 25 of the protests with the number of confirmed fatalities reaching 4,902, and the number of deaths still under review standing at 9,387.  

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The total number of arrests has risen to 26,541, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said.

IRAN STATE TV HACKED TO SHOW EXILED CROWN PRINCE PAHLAVI

Demonstrators burn a poster depicting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a rally in support of anti-government protests in Iran, in Holon, Israel Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026.  (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

The France-based Kurdistan Human Rights Network (KHRN) also said it received information indicating that some families were forced to pay sums of up to 10 billion rials to recover the bodies of their relatives.

In many cases, funeral ceremonies were held under heavy security control in the hometowns of those killed. 

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Some families were reportedly subjected to threats and pressure to falsely attribute responsibility for the killings to protesters.

KHRN further said that two protesters, including a 16-year-old, said they were sexually assaulted by Iranian security forces who detained them in Kermanshah, according to reports.

G7 THREATENS IRAN WITH NEW SANCTIONS OVER NATIONWIDE PROTEST CRACKDOWN KILLING THOUSANDS

Iranian security forces allegedly killed detainees and burned bodies during protests, with clashes continuing in Kermanshah, Rasht and Mashhad despite government claims. (NCRI)

Meanwhile, NCRI’s Ali Safavi said eyewitnesses reported that “several young women and men were forced to undress, so the military could see whether they had pellet wounds.”

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“There has been barbarity with people who were detained. When they were killed, their bodies were burned,” he added.

Safavi also said clashes continued in multiple cities Tuesday night, including “Kermanshah where protesters and armed units of the IRGC fought in parts of the city.”

“There was the same in Rasht and Mashhad where the people and the regime will not return to the status quo even if the uprisings have slowed down. This is because of the blood of thousands of martyrs on their hands.”

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“The regime is still in power, and it won’t abandon brutal and bloody suppression so there is no pathway to a velvet revolution in Iran.”

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“The shoes and sneakers seen left along the sidewalks remind us of the 30,000 MEK members and Iranian prisoners who were hanged during the 1988 massacre based on a fatwa by Khomeini,” Safavi added.

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French firm Lactalis latest to recall baby formula amid contamination scare

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French firm Lactalis latest to recall baby formula amid contamination scare

French, Swiss food giants Danone and Nestle have also recalled infant formula batches in recent weeks over toxin fears.

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French dairy product giant Lactalis has announced a recall of batches of infant formula in France and more than a dozen other countries over worries batches have been contaminated by a toxin.

The announcement on Wednesday follows the recall of infant formula by Swiss dairy corporation Nestle in almost 60 countries since the beginning of the month.

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Lactalis “is proceeding with a voluntary recall of six batches of Picot infant milk, available in pharmacies and mass retail, due to the presence of cereulide in an ingredient supplied by a supplier”, the company said, referring to the toxin that can cause diarrhoea and vomiting.

“We are fully aware that this information may cause concern among parents of young children,” the company said.

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Outside France, the recall affects Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, the Republic of the Congo, Ecuador, Spain, Madagascar, Mexico, Uzbekistan, Peru, Georgia, Greece, Kuwait, the Czech Republic and Taiwan, a spokesperson for the company told the AFP news agency.

The recall involves “a few batches” of formula in each of the countries, the spokesperson said.

The company said the French authorities had not signalled “any claim nor any report related to the consumption of these products”.

The infant formula industry has been rocked by recalls in recent weeks.

Authorities in Singapore on Saturday recalled Dumex baby formula, a brand owned by French food giant Danone, as well as batches of Nestle formula.

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The ‍ Singapore Food Agency said it ordered the precautionary recall of a batch of Danone’s Thai-origin Dumex Dulac 1 and Nestle’s Swiss-origin NAN HA1 SupremePro after detecting cereulide.

Danone said the authorities blocked just “a few pallets” of Dumex, indicating they were not yet on the shelves of retail outlets.

Like Lactalis, Nestle has issued recalls since January due to the potential presence of cereulide, a bacterial substance that can cause sickness.

Nestle France said it was carrying out a “preventive and voluntary recall” of certain batches of its Guigoz and Nidal infant formulas after new investigations showed the potential presence of cereulide.

French health authorities said on Tuesday an investigation was under way after the death of a baby who had consumed milk from one of the batches recalled by Nestle, though no link has been established between its consumption and the death at this stage.

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In 2018, Lactalis was at the centre of a salmonella outbreak and ensuing scandal after the company was accused of trying to cover up the extent of the outbreak, which led to the recall of 12 million tins of baby formula from more than 80 countries.

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