World
Russia’s Brutal War Calculus
Two years of war have remade Russia.
Isolated from the West, it is now more dependent on China. Political repression is reminiscent of the grim days of the Soviet Union.
But Russia is not the economic shambles many in the West predicted when they imposed punishing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are pulling down their highest incomes in years.
Russian society has been refashioned in ways that have devastated some and lifted others. While government critics languish in jail and young men die in trenches at the front, other Russians — especially those willing to spout the official line — are feeling more optimistic than ever.
Here is a look at how Russia at war has changed — suffering enormous costs by some metrics but faring better than expected by others.
Daily Life
People fled Russia in droves after the invasion and draft, more than 820,000, although some returned.
Alcoholics were diagnosed in higher numbers after more than a decade of steady declines.
Demand for psychologists increased by more than 60% in the first year of the war.
Traffic to Facebook and Instagram dropped after Russia blocked them, and use of Telegram and secure platforms like VPNs surged.
Travel abroad plummeted from pre-pandemic days.
But people are making higher wages as men deployed to the front reduce the ranks of workers back home.
And Russians are shelling out on new homes, helped by generous government subsidies.
Despite the ways that life has changed, many people say they feel positive about how President Vladimir Putin is doing. His popularity surged as the war began and is now at its highest level in seven years.
Questions remain about how honest people feel they can be in polls, given the risks. And polls have signaled, too, that a substantial number would like the war to end. But Mr. Putin has convinced many that in invading Ukraine, Russia is defending itself against an existential threat from the West.
The Economy
Mr. Putin went into the war with his financial house in order.
Government debt was low. Funds were stashed away. And a team of agile technocrats were on hand to fend off a crisis.
After an initial shock, the Russian system recovered, thanks in part to emergency financial measures, high oil prices and trade with China and India. Moscow also greatly increased state spending.
Collectively, Russia has created its own wartime economy.
Trade with Europe dropped by about 65% after Western sanctions.
Toyotas and VWs, once popular, disappeared from car assembly lines.
But trade with China, India and Turkey boomed.
By last year, Chinese cars made up six of the top 10 car brands in Russia.
The G.D.P. overall was driven up last year by an enormous war-related government stimulus.
Unemployment dropped.
And more than two-thirds of Russians say their economic well-being is the same or better.
But inflation shot up too.
The economy is now in danger of overheating. The mortgage subsidies could be fueling a housing bubble. And the market is still off-kilter in some sectors, with shortages of certain medicines, for example, and dramatic reductions in car production.
If oil prices plunge, Russia will struggle. If the military spending spree ends, all bets are off. Russia can sustain warfare in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, but its long-term economic future is in doubt.
Support for the War
For the moment, at least, the resilient economy has boosted Mr. Putin. And a campaign of propaganda and repression have allowed him to reign virtually unchallenged.
As nationalist songs top the charts — “I am Russian, out of spite to the whole world,” goes one — less attention is being paid to the news. And the government plans to spend $500 million on “patriotic education” this year, including for a goose-stepping “youth army.”
The percentage of people saying the country is moving in the right direction is the highest in decades, 71% last month.
Support for Russian military actions in Ukraine is even higher, though many Russians have indicated that they aren’t comfortable sharing their opinion about the war.
Repression of those opposing the war is widespread.
Treason convictions nearly tripled.
The war has accelerated a crackdown on the L.G.B.T.Q. community.
Soviet-style denunciations are back, as Russians report “unpatriotic” behavior by fellow citizens to the authorities.
Freedom of assembly has been obliterated, with nearly 20,000 Russians detained for their antiwar stance.
Independent journalists have been forced to flee, and many have been declared foreign agents.
Mr. Putin’s best-known critic, Aleksei A. Navalny, died after years of inhumane treatment in prison.
The number of prisoners in Russia has actually decreased dramatically.
But that’s primarily because many were recruited to fight, and often die, in Ukraine.
Blood and Treasure
In the early months of the war, Mr. Putin’s military made grave mistakes, but it has regrouped. Russia fended off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive and has taken the initiative on the front, buoyed by frozen American aid for Ukraine.
Still, Russia has sustained huge costs to get this far. It is far from controlling the four regions it claims to have annexed, let alone the rest of Ukraine, and Mr. Putin may need to carry out another draft.
He claims he would like to negotiate an end to the war, but skeptics see that as a ploy to undercut Western aid to Ukraine.
Moscow has made increasing gains in recent weeks. It now controls about 18 percent of Ukraine, up from 7 percent before the full-scale invasion.
But its control of Ukraine is down from the 27 percent Russian forces once occupied at their height.
The progress is coming at a higher cost. Military spending has eclipsed social spending at the federal level for the first time in Russia’s 32-year post-Soviet history. It makes up about a third of the national budget.
Some 60,000 Russians have been killed in the fighting, according to U.S. officials.
That’s two Russian soldiers for every square mile taken from Ukraine since the invasion.
The popularity of the war appears to ebb when it comes to support for the draft. Only 36% of Russians support another mobilization to replenish forces.
To replenish its ranks, Russia has been targeting prisons and poorer regions for recruits.
Soldiers in Ukraine are earning roughly three times the average Russian salary — and in many cases more. Compensation to families of soldiers who die in Ukraine can be more than $84,000, more than nine times the average annual Russian salary.
But despite their stated support for the war, many Russians would be happy for it to end. Half of Russians say they want to start peace talks.
People fleeing Russia: Re:Russia
Diagnoses of alcohol dependence in 2022: Rosstat Psychologist demand: Psychodemia, Alter, HeadHunter
Facebook, Instagram, Telegram and VPN use: Mediascope, AppMagic
Foreign travel: Russian Border Service, Association of Tour Operators
Patriotic education: Russian federal budget
Putin’s popularity: Levada Center Trade with Europe: Eurostat
Trade with China, India and Turkey: Bruegel
Russia’s well-being: NORC at the University of Chicago
Inflation: Bank of Russia People saying the country is moving in the right direction: Levada Center
Treason convictions, 2021 compared with 2023: Pervy Otdel, Supreme Court of Russia
Number of prisoners: Russian Ministry of Justice
Control of territory in Ukraine: Institute for the Study of War
Military spending: Russian Ministry of Finance War deaths: U.S. officials
Support for the draft: Russian Field
Support for peace talks: Levada Center
Sources
World
US military says it completed latest strikes on Iran, targets included Bandar Abbas
World
Iran calls on Houthis to prepare to cut off Red Sea gateway — can the terror group do it?
Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz, impacts global oil prices
FOX Business’ Lauren Simonetti details escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran threatens to block shipping lanes and impose new conditions. This move follows reports of vessels being struck by Iranian drones since March. The uncertainty surrounding the vital waterway has led to a 2% drop in crude oil prices, affecting the global market.
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Iran has reportedly instructed Yemen’s Houthi terrorists to prepare to close a critical Red Sea gateway if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure, Reuters reported, a threat experts warn could sharply disrupt global shipping even if the group cannot completely seal the waterway.
“This threat should be taken seriously,” Nadwa Al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute told Fox News Digital. “With recent escalation and U.S. strikes on Iran, Tehran has already signaled that the Bab al-Mandab could become part of its response.”
Three sources told Reuters on Thursday that Iran’s leadership had discussed using the Houthis to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and recently conveyed the request to the group. A source close to the Houthis said missiles and drones had been deployed near the waterway and that the group was awaiting an order to begin attacking shipping.
IRAN-BACKED TERROR PROXY HOUTHIS THREATEN FRESH ATTACKS AFTER YEMEN AIRPORT STRIKE
A Houthi follower during a pro-Iran demonstration, in Sanaa, Yemen, April 6, 2026. (Khaled Abdullah/Reuters)
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British ambassador to Yemen and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned in a recent Fox News Digital report that a full resumption of the Houthi maritime campaign could trigger wider fighting.
“It will be interesting if the Houthis do go all in, and resume their campaign against Red Sea shipping with full intensity,” Fitton-Brown said. “This will draw international anger and likely result in Israeli and U.S. strikes on Sana’a and Hodeida.”
“There is potential for a general escalation if this happens, albeit one in which the allies have a clear military advantage,” he added.
Al-Dawsari said the Houthis have continued developing the weapons needed to threaten the narrow shipping corridor despite largely refraining from maritime attacks over the past year.
“While the Houthis have largely refrained from attacking shipping for about a year, they have continued to advance their maritime capabilities, including missiles, drones and sea mines,” she said. “They may not be able to fully close the strait, but they could significantly disrupt shipping and raise costs and risks for commercial traffic.”
US CLAWS BACK KEY CONCESSION TO IRAN AFTER FRESH ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
This photo released by the Houthi Media Center shows Houthi forces boarding the cargo ship Galaxy Leader on Nov. 19, 2023. (Houthi Media Center via AP)
But the group would not necessarily need to physically control the waterway. Its previous missile and drone campaign demonstrated that repeated attacks — or even a credible threat of them — can push major shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa, driving up insurance, fuel and freight costs.
The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, making it one of the world’s most important maritime choke points. The consequences of renewed attacks would be especially severe because Iran has already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, historically the principal route for roughly one-fifth of global energy supplies.
A substantial volume of Gulf oil has consequently been redirected through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Reuters reported that the Bab el-Mandeb route now carries approximately 7% of global energy supplies and that Saudi Arabia has shifted about 70% of its energy exports through Yanbu.
The reported instructions also raise new questions about how much control Tehran exercises over major Houthi military decisions.
In this image provided by the U.S. Navy, the amphibious dock landing ship USS Carter Hall and amphibious assault ship USS Bataan transit the Bab al-Mandeb strait on Aug. 9, 2023. (Mass Communications Spc. 2nd Class Moises Sandoval/U.S. Navy via AP)
“Any decision to escalate in the Bab al-Mandab would be strategic and tied more to the interests of Iran and the Axis of Resistance than to Houthi interests alone,” Al-Dawsari said. “Decisions of this magnitude are likely coordinated through the Axis’ joint operations room under IRGC oversight.”
A source close to the Houthis claimed representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Yemen would control the timing of any move against the strait, Reuters reported.
The latest warning follows earlier Houthi threats against maritime traffic. In the June 12 report, Fox News Digital reported that the group had announced a complete ban on Israeli-owned ships in the Red Sea and declared them “legitimate targets.”
EXPERT WARNS OF ‘GENERAL ESCALATION’ OF FIGHTING IF HOUTHIS RESUME RED SEA CAMPAIGN
A satellite imagery shows Bab el Mandeb Strait, a key shipping waterway and the gateway to the Red Sea, in this handout picture dated July 12, 2026. (Nasa Worldview/Handout via Reuters)
A State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital at the time that the actions of Iran and the Houthis were “unacceptable” and “dangerous,” warning that they could inflame regional tensions and further disrupt global supply chains.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has “repeatedly condemned” Houthis attacks against ships in the Red Sea and called on all parties Thursday to avoid further escalation, his spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric, told Fox News Digital.
“Any disruptions or attacks would endanger the safety and security of seafarers, freedom of navigation and the stability of global supply chains and have a negative impact on the economic and humanitarian situation in Yemen and beyond,” Dujarric said. “The Secretary-General underscores that U.N. Security Council Resolution 2722 (2024) must be fully respected in its entirety,” he said on the resolution condemning at least two dozen Houthis attacks on commercial vessels since November 2023 and demanding an immediate end to the attacks.
The emerging threat has also renewed scrutiny of the Iranian weapons networks that helped build the Houthis’ missile and drone arsenal.
Amr Al-Bidh, foreign affairs chief of the Southern Arabian Transitional Council, said that the reported threat also exposed broader failures in the handling of Yemen’s security crisis. “The fact that individuals convicted of trafficking Iranian weapons to the Houthis and leading terrorist operations are now being released under a U.N.-brokered deal only underscores how poorly the Yemen crisis is being managed,” he said, “the main beneficiary of this vacuum is Iran, as seen in its credible threat to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait.”
In a July 15 letter obtained by Fox News Digital, the Southern Arabian Transitional Council formerly known as the Southern Transitional Council, a southern Yemeni separatist movement that seeks greater autonomy or independence for the territory of the former South Yemen, warned U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg that a U.N.-facilitated detainee agreement may include people the council says were convicted of assisting Iranian weapons transfers to the Houthis.
A missile is launched from a warship during the U.S.-led coalition operation against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi militia that has been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, in this handout picture released on Jan. 12, 2024. (US Central Command via X/Handout via REUTERS/ File Photo)
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An annex identifies individuals the council alleges were members of a cell that smuggled drones, aviation fuel and heavy and medium weapons from Iran to Sanaa.
The Office of the U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen said it received the letter only after the agreement had already been signed and stressed that it does not determine which detainees are released.
“We have received the letter after the agreement was signed,” spokesperson Ismini Palla told Fox News Digital. “The United Nations – as well as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) – do not decide who is released and who remains in detention. Our role is limited to mediating the negotiations and ICRC leads on the implementation of the release operation.”
Palla added that “the names of those released are proposed and agreed between the parties under the framework of the Stockholm Agreement on prisoners’ exchange of 2018.”
Fox News Digital reached out to the State Department and the Iranian Mission to the United Nations on the latest developments.
Fox News’ Paul Tilsley and Reuters contributed to this report.
World
Fake Hezbollah video threatening attack on France possibly Russia-tied
Storm-1516, a Russia-linked influence operation — which routinely disseminates fabricated claims about Europe and the West — comes in all shapes and sizes.
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This time round, researchers say it could be behind a social media video in which alleged militants from Hezbollah — an Iran-backed Lebanese militant group — threatened to carry out attacks on French soil ahead of Bastille Day celebrations on 14 July.
In the video, three hooded men wearing military uniforms pose in front of a dummy of a French Foreign Legion soldier, whose face had the French flag painted on.
They threaten to “shed blood” on 14 July if France continues to “supply weapons” to the “Zionist regime”, in an apparent reference to Israel.
At the end of the clip, one man uses a knife to decapitate the dummy.
What do we know about this video?
The clip first spread on Telegram before moving to X and Facebook, gaining almost one million views across X posts.
In the content analysed by Euronews’s verification team, The Cube, the men don’t make an explicit reference to the group they belong to. However, the arm patch on the men’s uniform resembles Hezbollah, whose armed wing is classified as a terrorist organisation by the European Union.
In addition, social media posts also refer to them as Hezbollah.
However, there is a series of clues which suggest the video is fake. To begin, the video does not bear the group’s logo, which is typically included in content disseminated on its official channels.
Colleagues from Euronews Arabic-speaking service also told us that the accent resembled Levantine Arabic but not a Lebanese Arabic accent, adding that the speaker made multiple grammatical mistakes. This suggests that the video does not belong to Hezbollah.
Fact-checkers from AFP reported that the video spread through a series of posts published on the same day by a network of accounts that regularly use pro-Russian narratives.
They include accounts that are favourable to the Alliance of Sahel States, a group of countries that includes Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, has ties to Iran and is openly anti-Western.
Fact-checkers have also reported that the video was picked up by anti-Israel accounts, as well as by users who regularly reshare conspiracy theories.
Storm-1516’s changing faces
The video bears similarities to other content connected to the Storm-1516 disinformation campaign, as well as fake content targeting Ukraine and Western countries.
The network produces a wide variety of content, which includes impersonating European journalists and news outlets, paying actors to pose as fake whistleblowers, and increasingly incorporating AI-generated content into its operations.
Researchers have highlighted similarities between the latest fake Hezbollah clip and other Russia-linked content — including a clip flagged by the Gnida project, an anonymous research group tracking Russian influence operations, which was published in January 2025.
The video in question showed individuals claiming to belong to HTS — the Islamist group formerly led by Syria’s current president, Ahmed al-Sharaa — threaten to burn down Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral, unless French authorities release Brahim Aouissaoui. The latter, a Tunisian citizen, killed three people during a terror attack he carried out in Nice in 2020.
Another example was a video purporting to show Hamas threatening attacks in France ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics. Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center examined the clip and deemed it to be consistent with Storm-1516’s tactics, while Hamas denied producing the video.
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