Bogota, Colombia – Jesus Medina Ezaine had already spent 16 months in a Venezuelan military prison, accused of crimes he said were related to his work as a photojournalist.

But another prison stint seemed imminent, particularly after the contested re-election of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

With Maduro set to be sworn in for a third term, Medina, 43, made a difficult decision: to flee his home in Venezuela for the relative safety of Bogota, the capital of neighbouring Colombia.

“Before they could put me back in prison, I decided to escape,” said Medina.

Maduro’s government has long faced criticism for the alleged repression of political rivals. But Friday’s inauguration ceremony is set to bring the recent electoral crisis to a head, with observers warning that the violence may escalate as Maduro strives to hold onto power.

“The regime  is going to do everything they can to ensure that Maduro can be re-inaugurated and that he can continue with his administration,” said Juan Pappier, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Americas division.

“If they see that possibility challenged in any way, for example through [opposition-led] demonstrations, they are going to repress them brutally.”

A climate of fear

Medina remembers his final months in Venezuela as being drenched in fear.

In the lead-up to the controversial election, he had joined the campaign of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as a photographer, documenting her efforts to galvanise support for presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez.

But that work once again made him a target.

Medina was not unknown to the Maduro government: In 2018, he was arrested on charges of money laundering, criminal association and inciting hate, all of which he denies.

Instead, he maintains his arrest was in retaliation for his reporting on human rights abuses. He was held without trial in the Ramo Verde military prison until January 2020.

“The Venezuelan regime does not tolerate any comments or information against them,” he said.

“The media is scared,” Medina added. “Freedom of expression in Venezuela has been completely lost because journalists inside Venezuela are doing what they can to avoid imprisonment.”

But the presidential election on July 28, 2024, brought political repression worse than any Medina had witnessed before.

Hours after polls closed, the National Electoral Council named Maduro the winner, without offering its usual breakdown of voting tallies.

Meanwhile, the opposition published receipts of the votes that instead suggested Gonzalez had won the election with nearly 70 percent of the vote. As protests erupted over the alleged electoral fraud, a government crackdown ensued.

As state forces swept the streets for protesters, seizing dissidents from their homes, Medina said he was tipped off that he would be jailed — again.

He quickly went into hiding. Medina spent two months holed up in different locations in the capital Caracas, trying to avoid arrest. He said the country’s intelligence forces had already knocked at the door of his home in the city.

Feeling cornered, Medina decided to flee on September 15 to Bogota, where he has stayed ever since.

A wave of repression

As many as 2,500 people were ultimately detained in the post-election protests, according to government statistics.

Another 25 people were killed, in what independent investigators for the United Nations called “unprecedented levels of violence”.

A UN fact-finding mission announced earlier this month that at least 56 political opposition activists, 10 journalists and one human rights defender were among the arrested between August and December.

On Tuesday, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights also published a report alleging systematic state repression intended “to prevent the political participation of the opposition” and “sow terror among citizens”.

But in the lead-up to Friday’s inauguration, more than 1,500 prisoners detained in the post-election sweep have been released, in what critics say could be an attempt to reduce scrutiny on the government’s human rights record.

Alfredo Romero, the director of Foro Penal, a Venezuelan human rights watchdog, explained that “having a number of innocent youths with their relatives, especially their mothers, at the door of the prisons” holding vigils was reflecting poorly on the Maduro administration.

Rights groups have also questioned the accuracy of the government’s numbers.

Romero said that at least 1,749 prisoners remained in custody as of the first week of January, and more alleged dissidents had since been detained.

“People may be released from prison, but it doesn’t mean that new ones won’t be jailed,” he said.

Inauguration backlash

Despite widespread fear over repression, demonstrations are expected on the day of Maduro’s third inauguration.

Gonzalez, the opposition’s presidential candidate, has also pledged to return to Venezuela from his exile abroad and be sworn in on Friday. It is unclear how or if he will follow through on that pledge.

In a video message posted to social media on Sunday, Machado, who has remained in hiding in Venezuela for months, called on Venezuelans to march in support of a transition of power this week.

“Maduro is not going to leave on his own, we must make him leave with the strength of a population that never gives up,” Machado said. “It is time to stand firm and make them understand that this is as far as they go. That this is over.”

In turn, the Maduro government has ramped up security and deployed more than 1,200 military personnel to cities across the country to “guarantee peace” on inauguration day.

The government has also detained more than 12 human rights defenders, political activists, and relatives of opposition figures in recent days, according to Amnesty International, a human rights organisation.

The detainments allegedly include Gonzalez’s son-in-law, Rafael Tudares: The presidential candidate said Tudares was abducted by masked men in Caracas on Tuesday.

And on Thursday, Machado herself was detained as she left an anti-Maduro protest, according to opposition officials who said her transportation was fired upon. She was swiftly released.

An uncertain future

The recent arrests have prompted a new swell of international condemnation.

The United States Embassy in Venezuela has called the detention of Gonzalez’s son-in-law an act of “intimidation” against the opposition. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said that the arrests prevented him from attending Maduro’s inauguration on Friday.

Still, Maduro’s control of state institutions has allowed security forces to act with impunity, according to the recent report from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights.

Medina himself believes repression in Venezuela may escalate if Maduro remains in power for a third term.

“If we do not achieve freedom, there will be much more persecution,” said Medina. “They will try to put an end to everything that they consider the opposition, including political leaders and the media.”

For now, he added that he hopes to continue his work exposing human rights abuses from abroad.

“What I have decided is that, no matter what, I’ll fight for my country.”