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How Venezuela’s recent history can inform its present-day election crisis

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How Venezuela’s recent history can inform its present-day election crisis

Already, the toll of the current political unrest has been high. Since the July election, at least 23 people have died in Venezuela’s protests, according to Victim Monitor, a human rights group. Foro Penal, meanwhile, has documented 1,581 arrests.

Some critics have speculated that, if Maduro continues to lose popular support, the Venezuelan military could turn on him.

Even the opposition’s presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, urged the country’s security forces to “fulfil their constitutional duties” and not “repress the people”.

Straka, the historian, pointed out that the Venezuelan military has turned its back on leaders in the past, most notably in the case of the dictator Perez Jimenez.

That the military played a role in his downfall took “everyone by surprise”, Straka explained. “The armed forces — Perez Jimenez’s main support — were divided.”

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But that outcome is less likely in Maduro’s case, according to Gunson, the Venezuela expert at the International Crisis Group. He indicated that some military leaders could face prosecution without Maduro’s protection.

“If the military were to desert Maduro, his government would fall,” Gunson told Al Jazeera. “But the high command is unlikely to do that in the near future at least because it would threaten their own personal positions.”

In recent weeks, the military even reaffirmed its support for Maduro amid the election crisis.

On August 25, the Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) pledged their “absolute loyalty and subordination to the commander-in-chief of the FANB, President Nicolas Maduro”.

Still, Gunson believes the military might not be as unified as it appears.

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“There is no reason to believe that members of the security forces voted any differently from the rest of the population,” Gunson said, pointing to the widespread support for Venezuela’s opposition coalition.

“There are plenty of anecdotes to support the thesis that many members of the National Guard and the police sympathise with demonstrators,” he added. “In recent years, thousands of members of the armed forces have deserted, and many have left the country.”

The strength of the opposition has given Tenreiro — the woman who witnessed the fall of Perez Jimenez over 60 years ago — a measure of hope. She said she wishes to see another authoritarian leader topple in her lifetime.

“I don’t want to leave this world before seeing the start of change [in Venezuela] once again.”

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Video: Russia Attacks Ukraine in a 10-Hour Deadly Assault

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Video: Russia Attacks Ukraine in a 10-Hour Deadly Assault

new video loaded: Russia Attacks Ukraine in a 10-Hour Deadly Assault

A Russian air assault across Ukraine on Saturday killed at least two people and injured dozens more, according to the Ukrainian authorities.
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By McKinnon de Kuyper

November 29, 2025

    How the Ukraine Peace Plan Is Evolving

    2:42

    Kyiv Residents Doubt Peace Talks After Deadly Russian Barrage

    1:22

    Ukrainians React to Peace Plan to End Russia’s War

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    The Aftermath of a Deadly Strike in Western Ukraine

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    Zelensky Faces a ‘Difficult Choice’ With Trump’s Proposed Plan

    1:41

    Ukraine Searches for Strike Survivors as Peace Plan Is Floated

    1:26

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Ukraine peace talks productive as ex-government official says country rethinking ‘uncompromising’ stance

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Ukraine peace talks productive as ex-government official says country rethinking ‘uncompromising’ stance

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Official peace talks between the U.S. and Ukraine on ending the Ukraine war moved to a productive phase Sunday – but only after President Zelenskyy sent a new-look team to Florida, according to a former Ukrainian government official.

With Rustem Umerov now leading Zelenskyy’s team and longtime adviser and chief of staff Andriy Yermak out, the source claimed the move signaled Kyiv was reassessing its “uncompromising” stance.

The official, who spoke to Fox News Digital on condition of anonymity, said the personnel choice represented a move away from the approach that has shaped Ukraine’s diplomatic strategy for years.

“Yermak had been teaching Zelenskyy to be a ‘Father of the Nation’ and until now, the Ukrainian side has been pushing for an unachievable and uncompromising position,” the former official said.

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MOMENTUM BUILDS IN UKRAINE PEACE PUSH, BUT EXPERTS FEAR PUTIN WON’T BUDGE

Ukrainian officials, left to right; Andrii Hnatov, Chief of the General Staff, Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief to the Head of the Defense Intelligence and Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security, during a meeting with U.S. officials Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, in Hallandale Beach, Florida. (Terry Renna/AP Photo)

“Umerov is not a very impressively strong individual in politics, but he wants to achieve results and is known to be aligned with compromise.”

Ukraine’s new delegation also included Andrii Hnatov, head of the armed forces; Andrii Sybiha, the foreign minister; and Umerov, who is head of the country’s security council.

After the meeting, Umerov offered a brief assessment to reporters, saying: “We are grateful to American people, American leadership and a great team with, state secretary, Steve, with both Jared Kushner for their tremendous work with us,” he said.

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“Our objective is a prosperous, strong Ukraine. We will [be] discussing [sic] the future of Ukraine. We discussed all the important matters that are important for Ukraine, for Ukrainian people. And the U.S was super supportive.”

We already had a successful meeting in Geneva, and today we can continue this success. So at the moment, this meeting was productive and successful in the later stages.”

MOMENTUM BUILDS IN UKRAINE PEACE PUSH, BUT EXPERTS FEAR PUTIN WON’T BUDGE

The new team traveled to Florida for discussions aimed at refining President Trump’s proposed framework and his push to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Sunday’s negotiations also took place after a leak published by Bloomberg News, revealed a transcript of an Oct. 14 call where special envoy Steve Witkoff allegedly offered advice to Russian officials on how to sell a peace plan to Trump.

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“The Ukrainian side had in some way undermined peace negotiations and Donald Trump’s efforts, not mentioning that it prolongs the war,” the former official said.

UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL YERMAK RESIGNS AS CORRUPTION PROBE ENCIRCLES ZELENSKYY

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, left, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio talk to the press as their consultations continue at the U.S. Mission to International Organizations in Geneva, Switzerland, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025. (Martial Trezzini/Keystone via AP)

The same former official said the shift in Kyiv’s delegation followed the dramatic resignation of Yermak, after anti-corruption investigators raided his home on Friday.

“Yermak was deeply distrusted by many actors, including Western actors including the U.S. administration and including Biden’s administration,” the source added.

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Despite his exit, the official warned that Yermak’s influence may still be shaping the Ukrainian team.

“Mr. Yermak is still there and, in fact, all the delegation that came to Florida includes Mr. Yermak’s people, his loyal people, very close personally to him –  people who [have] been serving him faithfully for years.”

“Yermak has not disappeared and might be on the telephone or online and ruling the agenda behind the scenes,” they added.

RUBIO, WITKOFF MEET WITH UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS IN PUSH TO FINALIZE DEAL AFTER ZELENSKYY’S TOP NEGOTIATOR RESIGNS

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov and Secretary of State Marco Rubio embrace after a meeting on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, in Hallandale Beach, Fla. (Terry Renna/AP Photo)

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They said Yermak’s long-standing governing style still influences Kyiv’s political posture:

“In Ukraine, as in many post-Soviet countries, there is still the so-called ‘telephone rule’, when a powerful person can influence the outcome of any formal decision-making despite lacking formal powers and in contradiction with the law.”

“Yermak has been doing this for the last six and a half years,” the source added.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Witkoff, and senior advisor Jared Kushner led the American side in Sunday’s session.

Rubio told reporters after the meeting: “We had another very productive session. Building off Geneva, building off the events of this week,” he said.

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ZELENSKYY WARNS UKRAINE FACES ‘DIFFICULT CHOICE’ AS US PEACE PLAN HITS MAJOR HURDLE 

White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Jared Kushner listen as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov speaks while leading Ukrainian delegation during a meeting in Hallandale Beach, Florida, on Nov. 30, 2025.  (Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images)

“As I told you earlier this morning, our goal here is to end the war,” he continued. “But it’s more than just to end the war. We don’t just want to end the war. We also want to help Ukraine be safe forever. So never again will they face another invasion. And equally importantly, we want them to enter an age of true prosperity.”

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday that he had spoken to Rubio and Witkoff and that they were “doing well.”

“Ukraine’s got some difficult little problems,” Trump said. “They have some difficult problems. But I think Russia would like to see it end and I think Ukraine… I know Ukraine would like to see it end.”

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He also said he thinks there is “a good chance we can make a deal.”

In a post shared on X, Zelenskyy highlighted Umerov’s work in Florida as the head of the Ukrainian delegation.

“Today, following the work of the teams in the United States, head of the Ukrainian delegation Rustem Umerov reported on the main parameters of the dialogue, its emphases, and some preliminary results,” he said.

“It is important that the talks have a constructive dynamic and that all issues were discussed openly and with a clear focus on ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and national interests. I am grateful to the United States, to President Trump’s team, and to the President personally for the time that is being invested so intensively in defining the steps to end the war. We will continue working. I look forward to receiving a full report from our team during a personal meeting.”

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Sunday’s talks came just hours after another deadly Russian strike on Kyiv killed at least one person and wounded 19, including four children, Euronews reported.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the war has left huge areas of Ukraine devastated and roughly 20% of its territory under occupation.

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US and Ukraine talks begin as Trump pushes to bring war to an end

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US and Ukraine talks begin as Trump pushes to bring war to an end

American and Ukrainian officials are engaged in talks aimed at creating “reliable security guarantees” for Ukraine as part of a US-backed peace plan ahead of a critical visit to Moscow by United States special envoy Steve Witkoff.

At the meeting in Florida on Sunday, a Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, sat down with Witkoff and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the talks are aimed at “creating a pathway” for a sovereign Ukraine.

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“We have clear directives and priorities: safeguarding Ukrainian interests, ensuring substantive dialogue, and advancing on the basis of the progress achieved in Geneva,” Umerov wrote on X.

He added negotiators want to “secure real peace for Ukraine and reliable, long-term security guarantees”.

The talks come a week after Rubio and Ukrainian negotiators met in Geneva, Switzerland to revise US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, which initially was criticised as a Russian wish list. The sit-down sets the stage for Witkoff’s planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which Trump earlier signalled would take place this week.

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Putin said the US draft – which has not yet been published – could serve as a “basis for future agreements”, adding his talks with Witkoff should focus on the Russia-controlled Donbas and Crimea regions.

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who is participating in the Florida talks, may also be present in Moscow.

“This is about ending a war in a way that creates a mechanism for a way forward that will allow them [Ukraine] to be independent and sovereign and never have another war again, and create tremendous prosperity for its people – not just rebuild the country but to enter an era of extraordinary economic progress,” said Rubio.

Talks between US and Ukrainian officials got off to a “good start” and are taking place in a “warm atmosphere conducive to potential progressive outcome”, said Ukraine’s first deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya on X.

‘Important days’

The negotiations come at a sensitive moment for Ukraine as it continues to push back against Russian forces that invaded in 2022, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reeling from a corruption scandal that led to the resignation of his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, this week.

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It was Yermak who sat down with Rubio in Geneva last week to make amendments to Trump’s original 28-point plan, which initially envisioned Ukraine ceding the entire eastern region of the Donbas to Russia, limiting the size of its military, and giving up on joining NATO.

The US pared back the original draft to 19 points following criticism from Kyiv and Europe, but the current contents remain unclear.

Zelenskyy wrote on X that the United States is “demonstrating a constructive approach”.

“In the coming days, it is feasible to flesh out the steps to determine how to bring the war to a dignified end,” he said.

On Sunday, the Ukrainian president said he spoke with NATO chief Mark Rutte and noted, “These are important days and much can change.”

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On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Zelenskyy for talks in Paris, the French presidency announced.

As Russia advances on the front line, its forces have targeted Ukraine’s capital and the region for two nights in a row ahead of the talks in the US.

Russian attacks on Ukraine overnight on Saturday killed six people and wounded dozens of others across the country, and cut power to 400,000 households in Kyiv.

A drone attack on the outskirts of Kyiv killed one person and wounded 11, the regional governor said.

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Hours earlier, a Ukrainian security source said Kyiv was responsible for attacks on two oil tankers in the Black Sea that it believed were covertly transporting sanctioned Russian oil.

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