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How the U.S. Election Matters for the Rest of the World

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How the U.S. Election Matters for the Rest of the World

Israel

Patrick Kingsley is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief.

Israelis, if they could, would vote by a large margin for Trump — the polls show that very clearly. But whoever wins, the long-term impact will probably be limited.

Israeli society, not to mention the government, is more opposed to Palestinian statehood and a two-state solution than it has been in decades. No U.S. president is likely to change that. President Harris would probably put more pressure on Israel to reach a cease-fire and open up talks with the Palestinians. But she would be unlikely to, say, cut off military support to Israel.

President Trump would perhaps be less bothered about Israel allowing Jewish settlers back into Gaza, as part of the Israeli government would like to do. He also talks a much more aggressive line on Iran than Harris, which pleases many Israelis. But you don’t quite know which side of the bed he’s going to wake up on. You get the sense he’s more risk averse than he sounds, and he recently appeared to rule out trying to topple the Iranian regime.

Because of that unpredictability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may feel he can take more advantage of a Harris administration. So the internal Israeli thinking might be more nuanced than it seems.

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Russia and Ukraine

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Anton Troianovski is The Times’s Moscow bureau chief.

This is an election that matters massively to Russia and Ukraine. Trump has said it is President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine’s fault that Russia invaded. Ukrainians worry that a President Trump would force a quick and dirty peace deal favorable to Russia. They hope a President Harris would continue to support them on the battlefield.

However, in Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin sees much less of a difference between Trump and Harris on Ukraine than we might think. He believes that both Trump and Harris are going to be less committed to Ukraine than Biden.

Putin wants a deal, something that he can call a victory. He believes that Ukraine is a puppet of the United States. So he believes he can only get that deal in a negotiation with the U.S. president. He has publicly backed Harris. That might seem disingenuous, or counterintuitive, but Putin may think he can do business with her.

There is one way in which a Trump victory would unambiguously strengthen Putin: It would mean an America that’s far less engaged in the world and in Europe, which Putin sees as his rightful sphere of interest.

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China

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Keith Bradsher is The Times’s Beijing bureau chief.

Whoever wins, the next U.S. president will be a hawk on China. But the people I speak to in Beijing are divided about which candidate would be better for China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.

Chinese economic officials are very aware that Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from America, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates a lot of wealth, and it offsets China’s very serious housing market crash.

Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign policy world sees advantages to Trump’s winning the election.

China feels increasingly hemmed in by U.S. efforts, particularly by the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and above all Taiwan. Harris would probably continue those efforts. Trump is much less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.

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And Trump has also shown much less interest in defending Taiwan. That is very welcome in Beijing.

Europe and NATO

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Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent for The Times, covering Europe.

For Europe, this U.S. election feels like the end of an era, whatever the outcome.

Depending on whom you talk to in Europe, a Trump victory is either a nightmare or a gift. Europe’s growing band of nativists — in Hungary, Italy, Germany and elsewhere — regard Trump as the leader of their movement. If he regains the White House, he would normalize and energize their hard line on immigration and national identity.

Meanwhile, most western European leaders are deeply anxious. Trump’s talk of slapping 20 percent tariffs onto everything sold to America, including European exports, could spell disaster for Europe’s economy. And, of course, Trump has repeatedly talked about leaving NATO.

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Even if the United States doesn’t formally leave NATO, Trump could fatally undermine the alliance’s credibility if he says, “I’m not going to go fight for some small European country.”

If Harris wins, there is a feeling that she, too, will be preoccupied at home and more concerned with China, and will expect the Europeans to do more for themselves. There is a palpable sense in Europe that Biden was perhaps the last U.S. president to be personally attached to an alliance forged in the Cold War.

Global trade

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Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics.

Donald Trump says “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.”

So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trade system, with U.S. voters making a choice that could affect the entire world.

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Harris, if elected, would maintain targeted tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something much, much more aggressive, setting tariff levels that haven’t been seen in nearly a century: 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products, and 60 percent or more on goods made in China.

This would hit more than $3 trillion in U.S. imports, and probably cause multiple trade wars, as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own. Most economists say we could end up with more tariffs, less trade, lower income and growth — a poorer world, essentially.

Can Trump just do that? Yes, he can. He has broad legal authority. And that would mean the United States is undermining the big international trade rules that it helped to create.

South Africa

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John Eligon is The Times’s Johannesburg bureau chief.

There are some interesting differences in how people in Africa see Harris and Trump. Despite the fact that Trump has vulgarly dismissed African countries, some see him as a strong leader who gets things done. In many ways he resembles a lot of autocratic African leaders.

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Harris, in Africa, is known for spending time in Zambia when she was growing up, as the granddaughter of an Indian diplomat stationed there. And her being of African descent resonates very deeply. She is seen as being very much of the continent.

Biden — and presumably Harris — wants African countries to decarbonize, because many still rely on fossil fuels for energy. Trump would probably not have that focus, and so his presidency might be desirable for countries that want to continue burning coal and oil and gas, instead of being dragged kicking and screaming into the clean energy transition.

South Africa is feeling a push and pull between the West, where it has the strongest economic ties, and the alliance of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among others). It seems plausible that if Trump wins, he will be much more isolationist, and might have no problem watching countries like South Africa and Ethiopia draw even closer to BRICS.

Mexico

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Natalie Kitroeff is The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief.

Mexico is facing significant challenges if Trump is elected. There will almost certainly be heightened tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. Mexico is the biggest U.S. trading partner, and it could face heavy tariffs. And it will be the next-door neighbor of a president who has threatened to use the U.S. military on Mexican soil.

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But Mexico anticipates a tough immigration regime whoever wins. Under President Harris, that would probably mean continuity with the Biden administration policies that have become much more restrictive over time. Migration is a shared issue. Migrants from all over the world pass through Mexico to get to the U.S. border, and the United States can’t control the flow of migrants without Mexico’s assistance.

Trump has promised to deport 11 million people, mostly to Latin America — though experts are dubious that such a feat is even feasible. But even a small number of deportations could have huge consequences throughout the region.

Mexico has some leverage. But its leaders could really be backed into a corner by an emboldened Trump. And they know it.

Climate

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Somini Sengupta is The Times’s international climate reporter.

The stakes could not be higher. The United States has emitted more carbon than any country in history, and is the second-biggest emitter right now after China. What it does next will impact the entire world’s ability to avert catastrophic climate change.

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If Harris is elected, she is likely to press ahead with Biden’s policies of shifting to renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions. Less clear is whether she will restrict oil and gas production, as the United States is now producing more oil and gas than any country ever has.

Trump, if he wins, may not scrap the Biden-era policies altogether. But he could overturn dozens of measures that regulate emissions from cars and power plants, eviscerating the country’s ability to reduce emissions fast enough.

Trump’s actions could also leave China without serious competition in renewable energy technology like batteries and electric vehicles. China is already leading that race.

Whoever wins the U.S. election, the energy transition is already in motion. But speed and scale matter. Trump could slow the transition to a crawl, with potentially disastrous consequences for the climate, and the world.

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World

US citizen among 4 dead in Laos after suspected alcohol poisoning

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US citizen among 4 dead in Laos after suspected alcohol poisoning

An American, two Danes and one Australian tourist died after drinking tainted alcohol in Laos following reports that several people had been sickened in a town popular with backpackers.

The only victim’s identity publicly released so far is 19-year-old Bianca Jones of Australia.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told Parliament on Thursday that Jones had died after being evacuated from Vang Vieng, Laos, for treatment in a Thai hospital. Her friend, also 19, remains hospitalized in neighboring Thailand.

“This is every parent’s very worst fear and a nightmare that no one should have to endure,” Albanese said, according to The Associated Press. “We also take this moment to say that we’re thinking of Bianca’s friend Holly Bowles, who is fighting for her life.”

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A notice displayed at the bar of Nana Backpack hostel in Vang Vieng, Laos, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath)

Shaun Bowles told reporters outside Bangkok Hospital on Wednesday that his daughter remained in critical condition and on life support.

“We just like to thank everyone from back home for all of the support and love that we’re receiving,” he said. “But we’d also like the people to appreciate right now, we just need privacy so we can spend as much time as we can with Holly.”

Australian media said Jones was the fourth foreign tourist to die after consuming the contaminated alcohol.

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Man play pool in Laos

A man plays pool at Nana Backpack hostel in Vang Vieng, Laos, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath)

“The physician who examined her said the cause of death was a methanol poisoning, from fake liquor,” Phattanawong Chanphon, a police official in the Thai city, told Reuters. “The amount of methanol in her body was high, leading to swelling of the brain.”

Counterfeit liquor is a problem in Laos, with the governments of Australia and Britain warning citizens to be cautious when having drinks there.

Methanol is a toxic alcohol that is used industrially as a solvent, pesticide and alternative fuel source, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Laos bar November 2024

Foreign tourists have a drink at a nightclub at Nana Backpack hostel in Vang Vieng, Laos, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath)

The U.S. Department of State did not respond to a Fox News Digital inquiry, but told the AP that local authorities were investigating the case and were responsible for providing any details. The State Department noted that the U.S. was providing consular assistance.

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“At this time I would say to parents, to young people, please have a conversation about risks, please inform yourselves, please let’s work together to ensure this tragedy doesn’t happen again,” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said after receiving news of Jones’ death.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this request. 

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UK imposes sanctions on Isabel dos Santos, Ukrainian oligarch Firtash

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UK imposes sanctions on Isabel dos Santos, Ukrainian oligarch Firtash

The measures are a part of the Labour government tightening Britain’s anti-corruption sanctions regime.

The United Kingdom has barred Angolan billionaire Isabel dos Santos and Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash and frozen their UK assets, the government announced, in what it said was part of a new crackdown on “dirty money”.

The measures on Thursday were the first step in tightening Britain’s anti-corruption sanctions regime as promised in July’s election, the Labour government said.

“These unscrupulous individuals selfishly deprive their fellow citizens of much-needed funding for education, healthcare and infrastructure – for their own enrichment,” Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a statement.

Dos Santos, whose father Jose Eduardo dos Santos served as Angola’s president for 38 years until 2017, is Africa’s first female billionaire and has faced corruption accusations in Angola and elsewhere for years. She denies the allegations and says she is the target of a long-running political vendetta.

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She was sanctioned by the United States in 2021 for “involvement in significant corruption” and is barred from entering the country.

Britain said dos Santos abused her positions at Angolan state oil firm Sonangol and telecoms company Unitel to embezzle at least 350 million pounds ($440m).

Dos Santos lost an appeal to overturn an order freezing up to 580 million pounds of her assets in September as part of a lawsuit at London’s High Court brought by Unitel. Global police agency Interpol has issued a red notice for her.

In a statement cited by the Reuters news agency, dos Santos said that the British sanctions were “incorrect and unjustified”.

“I was not given the opportunity to defend myself against these allegations,” she said. “I intend to appeal and I hope that the United Kingdom will give me the opportunity to present my evidence.”

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Dmytro Firtash, one of Ukraine’s most influential oligarchs, at a trial in Vienna, Austria [File: Samuel Kubani/AFP]

Firtash is wanted by Ukrainian and US authorities on suspicion of embezzling nearly $500m involving Ukraine’s gas transit system. He says the charges are without legal foundation.

He is currently in Austria fighting extradition to the US.

In June 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing sanctions on Firtash, including the freezing of his assets and withdrawal of licences from his companies, after accusing him of selling titanium products to Russian military companies.

Britain said Firtash had extracted “hundreds of millions of pounds from Ukraine through corruption”, and hidden tens of millions of pounds of ill-gotten gains in the UK property market alone.

Britain also sanctioned his wife Lada Firtash, who it said held UK assets on his behalf including the site of the old Brompton Road rail station of the London Underground.

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Latvian businessman and politician Aivars Lembergs, who was put on a US sanctions list in 2019 for alleged corruption, was also sanctioned, as was his daughter Liga Lemberga. The British government said Lembergs had “abused his political position to commit bribery and launder money.”

Lammy said the penalties were the start of a crackdown.

“I committed to taking on kleptocrats and the dirty money that empowers them when I became foreign secretary, and these sanctions mark the first step in delivering this ambition,” he said.

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‘A Complete Unknown’ First Reactions Praise ‘Shockingly Moving’ Bob Dylan Biopic: Timothée Chalamet’s Performance Is a ‘True Tour De Force’

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‘A Complete Unknown’ First Reactions Praise ‘Shockingly Moving’ Bob Dylan Biopic: Timothée Chalamet’s Performance Is a ‘True Tour De Force’

The first reactions to Timothée Chalamet‘s “A Complete Unknown” have started rolling in on social media ahead of the Bob Dylan biopic’s Christmas release date, with members of the press praising Chalamet, Monica Barbaro and more for their performances in the film.

“Timothée Chalamet slides into Bob Dylan with an effortless yet focused determination. Fearless in some hypnotic moments,” Variety‘s senior awards editor Clayton Davis wrote on X. “For me, it’s Monica Barbaro and Elle Fanning that anchor the story of an illusive, mysterious man that remains in that sphere. James Mangold helms with confidence, with gorgeous sets and costumes. Much respect to one of the best to do it.”

Film critic Scott Menzel said Chalamet “delivers the performance of the year,” adding: “A true tour-de-force where Chalamet is never seen. Chalamet’s performance is not just about the voice and look but rather all of the little nuances and mannerisms that he perfectly brings to his life in his portrayal of Bob Dylan. Great supporting performances too from Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez and Edward Norton as Pete Seeger.”

While the reactions to “A Complete Unknown” have been mostly positive so far, the biopic received some negative responses, including Los Angeles film critic Ryan Swen, who used some Dylan lyrics to describe his reaction: “It’s vile and deceitful — it’s cruel and it’s mean. Ugliest thing that you have ever seen.”

The Playlist’s Gregory Ellwood, meanwhile, called the film “superb” and “shockingly moving,” adding: “Chalamet is fantastic. Monica Barbaro is incredible. We need a Joan Baez spin off movie.”

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From Searchlight Pictures and director James Mangold (“Walk the Line”), “A Complete Unknown” follows a young Dylan as he arrives in New York in the early 1960s. The film tracks the music legend as he becomes a fixture in the Greenwich Village folk scene and befriends people like Joan Baez (played by Barbaro) and Pete Seeger (Edward Norton). The film ends after Dylan straps on an electric guitar at Newport Folk Festival in 1965, playing “Like a Rolling Stone” and revolutionizing the genre.

Speaking to Variety back in July, when the first trailer for the film was released, a dozen Dylan experts expressed cautious optimism toward “A Complete Unknown,” praising Chalamet’s performance of “A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall.”

“A Complete Unknown” is written by Mangold and Jay Cocks, and based on Elijah Wald’s 2015 book “Dylan Goes Electric!” The rest of the cast includes Boyd Holbrook as Johnny Cash, P. J. Byrne as Harold Leventhal, Scoot McNairy as Woody Guthrie, Dan Fogler as Albert Grossman and Will Harrison as Bob Neuwirth, among others. The film is produced by Fred Berger, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, Bob Bookman, Alan Gasmer, Jeff Rosen, Chalamet and Mangold.

Check out more first reactions below.

“Wow, #ACompleteUnknown. Timothée Chalamet’s performance in this is superior. James Mangold and his entire team pull off a technical feat from sound, editing, costume, cinematography to production design, down to the subtleties of makeup and hair. Loved it.” — Jazz Tangcay (@jazzt)

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“#ACompleteUnknown is absolutely incredible. Clocks in at nearly 2.5 hrs but flies by. The musical performances are perfectly placed, the story is captivating. Timothée Chalamet, Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning, and Edward Norton all deliver unforgettable performances. I’m in awe.” — Tessa Smith (@MamasGeeky)

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN looks and sounds great, a standard biopic that truly comes alive when its iconic characters make passionate music together. Timothée Chalamet is well-cast but Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton steal the show as Joan Baez and Pete Seeger.” — Abe Friedtanzer (@movieswithabe)

“A Complete Unknown manages to maintain tell us everything about Bob Dylan while telling us almost nothing about Bob Dylan. Some would say that was the target. The movie is ultimately about the power of the individual and talent and how what we all want can turn on a dime, repeatedly. Chalamet brings enormous power to this portrait of a man who just keeps leaving but then also keeps delivering surprises. Edward Norton’s turn is perfectly true to Seeger. Monica Barbero delivers a Baez of many facets, from fire to ice. And Elle Fanning is destined to be underrated in a complex turn as “the first NY girlfriend.” I really need to see it again to fully negotiate all that is there and all that is not there by design.” — David Poland (@DavidPoland)

“A COMPLETE UNKNOWN is a solid biopic, showing Bob Dylan as a deeply talented individual with a lack of social intelligence. Timothee Chalamet is excellent & Monica Barbaro is captivating as Joan Baez. Oscar nominatons for Best Picture, Cinematography, Sound, Costumes are possible” — Tim Gerber (@ZurrieSkate)

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