World
How the U.S. Election Matters for the Rest of the World
Israel
Israelis, if they could, would vote by a large margin for Trump — the polls show that very clearly. But whoever wins, the long-term impact will probably be limited.
Israeli society, not to mention the government, is more opposed to Palestinian statehood and a two-state solution than it has been in decades. No U.S. president is likely to change that. President Harris would probably put more pressure on Israel to reach a cease-fire and open up talks with the Palestinians. But she would be unlikely to, say, cut off military support to Israel.
President Trump would perhaps be less bothered about Israel allowing Jewish settlers back into Gaza, as part of the Israeli government would like to do. He also talks a much more aggressive line on Iran than Harris, which pleases many Israelis. But you don’t quite know which side of the bed he’s going to wake up on. You get the sense he’s more risk averse than he sounds, and he recently appeared to rule out trying to topple the Iranian regime.
Because of that unpredictability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may feel he can take more advantage of a Harris administration. So the internal Israeli thinking might be more nuanced than it seems.
Russia and Ukraine
This is an election that matters massively to Russia and Ukraine. Trump has said it is President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine’s fault that Russia invaded. Ukrainians worry that a President Trump would force a quick and dirty peace deal favorable to Russia. They hope a President Harris would continue to support them on the battlefield.
However, in Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin sees much less of a difference between Trump and Harris on Ukraine than we might think. He believes that both Trump and Harris are going to be less committed to Ukraine than Biden.
Putin wants a deal, something that he can call a victory. He believes that Ukraine is a puppet of the United States. So he believes he can only get that deal in a negotiation with the U.S. president. He has publicly backed Harris. That might seem disingenuous, or counterintuitive, but Putin may think he can do business with her.
There is one way in which a Trump victory would unambiguously strengthen Putin: It would mean an America that’s far less engaged in the world and in Europe, which Putin sees as his rightful sphere of interest.
China
Whoever wins, the next U.S. president will be a hawk on China. But the people I speak to in Beijing are divided about which candidate would be better for China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.
Chinese economic officials are very aware that Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from America, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates a lot of wealth, and it offsets China’s very serious housing market crash.
Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign policy world sees advantages to Trump’s winning the election.
China feels increasingly hemmed in by U.S. efforts, particularly by the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and above all Taiwan. Harris would probably continue those efforts. Trump is much less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.
And Trump has also shown much less interest in defending Taiwan. That is very welcome in Beijing.
Europe and NATO
For Europe, this U.S. election feels like the end of an era, whatever the outcome.
Depending on whom you talk to in Europe, a Trump victory is either a nightmare or a gift. Europe’s growing band of nativists — in Hungary, Italy, Germany and elsewhere — regard Trump as the leader of their movement. If he regains the White House, he would normalize and energize their hard line on immigration and national identity.
Meanwhile, most western European leaders are deeply anxious. Trump’s talk of slapping 20 percent tariffs onto everything sold to America, including European exports, could spell disaster for Europe’s economy. And, of course, Trump has repeatedly talked about leaving NATO.
Even if the United States doesn’t formally leave NATO, Trump could fatally undermine the alliance’s credibility if he says, “I’m not going to go fight for some small European country.”
If Harris wins, there is a feeling that she, too, will be preoccupied at home and more concerned with China, and will expect the Europeans to do more for themselves. There is a palpable sense in Europe that Biden was perhaps the last U.S. president to be personally attached to an alliance forged in the Cold War.
Global trade
Donald Trump says “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.”
So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trade system, with U.S. voters making a choice that could affect the entire world.
Harris, if elected, would maintain targeted tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something much, much more aggressive, setting tariff levels that haven’t been seen in nearly a century: 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products, and 60 percent or more on goods made in China.
This would hit more than $3 trillion in U.S. imports, and probably cause multiple trade wars, as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own. Most economists say we could end up with more tariffs, less trade, lower income and growth — a poorer world, essentially.
Can Trump just do that? Yes, he can. He has broad legal authority. And that would mean the United States is undermining the big international trade rules that it helped to create.
South Africa
There are some interesting differences in how people in Africa see Harris and Trump. Despite the fact that Trump has vulgarly dismissed African countries, some see him as a strong leader who gets things done. In many ways he resembles a lot of autocratic African leaders.
Harris, in Africa, is known for spending time in Zambia when she was growing up, as the granddaughter of an Indian diplomat stationed there. And her being of African descent resonates very deeply. She is seen as being very much of the continent.
Biden — and presumably Harris — wants African countries to decarbonize, because many still rely on fossil fuels for energy. Trump would probably not have that focus, and so his presidency might be desirable for countries that want to continue burning coal and oil and gas, instead of being dragged kicking and screaming into the clean energy transition.
South Africa is feeling a push and pull between the West, where it has the strongest economic ties, and the alliance of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among others). It seems plausible that if Trump wins, he will be much more isolationist, and might have no problem watching countries like South Africa and Ethiopia draw even closer to BRICS.
Mexico
Mexico is facing significant challenges if Trump is elected. There will almost certainly be heightened tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. Mexico is the biggest U.S. trading partner, and it could face heavy tariffs. And it will be the next-door neighbor of a president who has threatened to use the U.S. military on Mexican soil.
But Mexico anticipates a tough immigration regime whoever wins. Under President Harris, that would probably mean continuity with the Biden administration policies that have become much more restrictive over time. Migration is a shared issue. Migrants from all over the world pass through Mexico to get to the U.S. border, and the United States can’t control the flow of migrants without Mexico’s assistance.
Trump has promised to deport 11 million people, mostly to Latin America — though experts are dubious that such a feat is even feasible. But even a small number of deportations could have huge consequences throughout the region.
Mexico has some leverage. But its leaders could really be backed into a corner by an emboldened Trump. And they know it.
Climate
The stakes could not be higher. The United States has emitted more carbon than any country in history, and is the second-biggest emitter right now after China. What it does next will impact the entire world’s ability to avert catastrophic climate change.
If Harris is elected, she is likely to press ahead with Biden’s policies of shifting to renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions. Less clear is whether she will restrict oil and gas production, as the United States is now producing more oil and gas than any country ever has.
Trump, if he wins, may not scrap the Biden-era policies altogether. But he could overturn dozens of measures that regulate emissions from cars and power plants, eviscerating the country’s ability to reduce emissions fast enough.
Trump’s actions could also leave China without serious competition in renewable energy technology like batteries and electric vehicles. China is already leading that race.
Whoever wins the U.S. election, the energy transition is already in motion. But speed and scale matter. Trump could slow the transition to a crawl, with potentially disastrous consequences for the climate, and the world.
World
Trump announces purge of over 1,000 Biden appointees
World
At least 80 people killed in northeast Colombia as peace talks fail, official says
More than 80 people were killed in the country’s northeast over the weekend following the government’s failed attempts to hold peace talks with the National Liberation Army, a Colombian official said.
Twenty others were injured in the violence that has forced thousands to flee as Colombia’s army scrambled to evacuate people on Sunday, according to William Villamizar, governor of North Santander, where many of the killings took place.
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Among the victims are community leader Carmelo Guerrero and seven people who sought to sign a peace deal, according to a report that a government ombudsman agency released late Saturday.
Officials said the attacks happened in several towns located in the Catatumbo region near the border with Venezuela, with at least three people who were part of the peace talks being kidnapped.
Thousands of people are fleeing the area, with some hiding in the nearby lush mountains or seeking help at government shelters.
“We were caught in the crossfire,” said Juan Gutiérrez, who fled with his family to a temporary shelter in Tibú after they were forced to leave behind their animals and belongings. “We had no time to grab our things. … I hope the government remembers us. … We are helpless here.”
Colombia’s army rescued dozens of people on Sunday, including a family and their pet dog, whose owner held a pack of cold water against the animal’s chest to keep it cool as they evacuated by helicopter.
Defense Minister Iván Velásquez traveled to the northeast town of Cúcuta on Sunday where he held several security meetings and urged armed groups to demobilize.
“The priority is to save lives and guarantee the security of communities,” he said. “We have deployed our troops throughout the entire region.”
Officials also prepared to send 10 tons of food and hygiene kits for approximately 5,000 people in the communities of Ocaña and Tibú, the majority of them having fled the violence.
“Catatumbo needs help,” Villamizar said in a public address on Saturday. “Boys, girls, young people, teenagers, entire families are showing up with nothing, riding trucks, dump trucks, motorcycles, whatever they can, on foot, to avoid being victims of this confrontation.”
The attack comes after Colombia suspended peace talks with the National Liberation Army, or ELN, on Friday, the second time it has done so in less than a year.
Colombia’s government has demanded that the ELN cease all attacks and allow authorities to enter the region and provide humanitarian aid.
“Displacement is killing us here in the region,” said José Trinidad, a municipal official for the town of Convención, located in the North Santander region. “We’re afraid the crisis will worsen.”
Trinidad called on insurgent groups to sit down and hammer out a new agreement so “us civilians don’t have to suffer the consequences that we’re suffering right now.”
The ELN has been clashing in Catatumbo with former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, a guerrilla group that disbanded after signing a peace deal in 2016 with Colombia’s government. The two are fighting over control of a strategic border region that has coca leaf plantations.
In a statement Saturday, the ELN said it had warned former FARC members that if they “continued attacking the population … there was no other way out than armed confrontation.” The ELN has accused ex-FARC rebels of several killings in the area, including the Jan. 15 slaying of a couple and their 9-month-old baby.
Army commander Gen. Luis Emilio Cardozo Santamaría said Saturday that authorities were reinforcing a humanitarian corridor between Tibú and Cúcuta for the safe passage of those forced to flee their homes. He said special urban troops also were deployed to municipal capitals “where there are risks and a lot of fear.”
The ELN has tried to negotiate a peace deal with the administration of President Gustavo Petro five times, with talks failing after bouts of violence. ELN demands include that it be recognized as a political rebel organization, which critics have said is risky.
World
Trump rescinds guidance protecting ‘sensitive areas’ from immigration raids
For more than a decade, US immigration agencies like ICE and CBP have avoided raids on places that provide vital services, like hospitals.
The administration of newly inaugurated United States President Donald Trump has revoked longstanding protections barring immigration raids on schools, hospitals, churches and other “sensitive areas”.
The announcement on Tuesday arrives as part of Trump’s attempts to fulfil a campaign-trail pledge to launch a campaign of “mass deportation”.
According to government estimates, as many as 11 million undocumented people live in the United States, many of them cornerstones in their families and communities.
For more than a decade, federal agencies have issued guidance against carrying out immigration enforcement efforts in places like schools and medical centres, on the basis that such raids might discourage people from seeking necessary services.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) implemented its policy in 2011. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) followed suit in 2013.
But in Tuesday’s statement, the Trump administration accused that guidance of serving to “thwart law enforcement” efforts.
It framed the new directive, repealing the protections, as a form of empowerment for immigration agencies.
“Criminals will no longer be able to hide in America’s schools and churches to avoid arrest,” the statement said. “The Trump Administration will not tie the hands of our brave law enforcement, and instead trusts them to use common sense.”
Trump has long conflated irregular migration with criminality. On the campaign trail last year, he repeatedly raised examples like that of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old student who was allegedly murdered by an undocumented person.
He has also used dehumanising language to refer to migrants and asylum seekers.
“The Democrats say, ‘Please don’t call them animals. They’re humans.’ I said, ‘No, they’re not humans. They’re not humans. They’re animals,’” he said in April, while referring to the Riley case.
Studies, however, have repeatedly shown that undocumented immigrants commit far fewer crimes than native-born US citizens.
Human rights groups have warned that Tuesday’s decision could force undocumented people, including children, into precarious situations, cut off from vital services.
“This action could have devastating consequences for immigrant families and their children, including U.S. citizen children, deterring them from receiving medical attention, seeking out disaster relief, attending school, and carrying out everyday activities,” the Center for Law and Social Policy said in a statement.
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