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But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.

CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP

These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.

“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”

The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.

Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.

Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.

ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?

Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.

But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.

The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.

Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.

OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE

Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.

Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.

Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”

He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.

“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.

“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”

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The organization that oversees the Nobel Peace Prize rejected recent suggestions that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado could give or share her award with President Donald Trump.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute shut down the idea Friday, after Machado suggested that she might transfer the prestigious award to Trump earlier this week.

“Once a Nobel Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others,” the institute said in a statement. “The decision is final and stands for all time.”

The statement comes after Machado floated the idea during an appearance Tuesday on Fox News’ “Hannity.”

UNITED NATIONS ‘UPSET’ THAT TRUMP TOOK ‘BOLD ACTION’ TO IMPROVE VENEZUELA, SAYS UN AMB. MIKE WALTZ

“Did you at any point offer to give him the Nobel Peace Prize?” Sean Hannity asked. “Did that actually happen?”

Machado responded, “Well, it hasn’t happened yet.”

“I certainly would love to be able to personally tell him that we believe — the Venezuelan people, because this is a prize of the Venezuelan people — certainly want to give it to him and share it with him,” Machado continued. “What he has done is historic. It’s a huge step towards a democratic transition.”

TRUMP ADMIN SAYS MADURO CAPTURE REINFORCES ALIEN ENEMIES ACT REMOVALS

On Jan. 3, Trump announced that the U.S. had successfully completed an operation to capture authoritarian Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is now facing drug trafficking charges in New York.

Trump was asked during an appearance Thursday on “Hannity” whether he would accept the Nobel Prize from Machado.

“I’ve heard that she wants to do that,” Trump responded. “That would be a great honor.”

TRUMP OUSTING OF MADURO DRAWS PARALLELS TO US RAID IN PANAMA – BUT THERE ARE SOME MAJOR CONTRASTS

Machado secretly escaped Venezuela last month and traveled to Norway to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, which she dedicated to Trump.

“Let me be very clear. As soon as I learned that we had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, I dedicated it to President Trump because I believed at that point that he deserved it,” Machado said on “Hannity.” “And a lot of people, most people, said it was impossible to achieve what he has just done on Saturday, January 3rd.”

Trump said he plans to meet with the Venezuelan opposition leader in Washington next week.

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He has previously stated that Machado “doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country” to lead. Trump has supported acting President Delcy Rodríguez, a longtime Maduro loyalist, who previously served as vice president under Maduro.

Fox News Digital’s Landon Mion contributed to this report.

Somalia’s minister of defence, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, has accused Israel of planning to forcibly displace Palestinians to the breakaway region of Somaliland, denouncing the alleged plan as a “serious violation” of international law.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on Saturday, Fiqi called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw his diplomatic recognition of the “separatist region”, calling the move announced late last year a “direct attack” on Somalia’s sovereignty.

“Israel has long had goals and plans to divide countries – maybe before 20 years – and it wants to divide the map of the Middle East and control its countries… this is why they found this separatist group in northwestern Somalia,” Fiqi told Al Jazeera.

“We have confirmed information that Israel has a plan to transfer Palestinians and to send them to [Somaliland],” he added, without elaborating.

Fiqi’s comments came amid a global outcry over Netanyahu’s decision in December to recognise Somaliland, a breakaway part of Somalia comprising the northwestern portion of what was once the British Protectorate.

The move made Israel the first country in the world to recognise Somaliland as an independent state and came months after The Associated Press news agency reported that Israeli officials had contacted parties in Somalia, Somaliland and Sudan to discuss using their territory for forcibly displacing Palestinians amid its genocidal war on Gaza.

Somalia denounced the Israeli move, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud telling Al Jazeera that Somaliland had accepted three conditions from Israel: The resettlement of Palestinians, the establishment of a military base on the coast of the Gulf of Aden, and joining the Abraham Accords to normalise ties with Israel.

Officials in Somaliland have denied agreeing to resettle Palestinians from Gaza, and say there have been no discussions on an Israeli military base in the area.

But Fiqi on Saturday reiterated that Israel “wants to create a military base to destabilise the region” on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.

“I see it as an occupation to destabilise the area,” Fiqi added.

He also stressed that Israel has no legal right to grant legitimacy to a region within a sovereign state.

Somaliland first declared independence from Somalia in 1991, but it has failed to gain recognition from any United Nations member state since.

Israel’s world-first announcement triggered protests in Somalia and swift criticisms from dozens of countries and organisations, including Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and the African Union.

Fiqi told Al Jazeera that Israel’s move falls into a decades-long goal to control the Middle East and accused Israel of exploiting separatist movements in the region. Roughly half of the areas formerly known as Somaliland have declared their affiliation with Somalia over the past two years, he added.

The minister praised the countries that had condemned Israel and pledged that Somalia would lean on all diplomatic and legal means to reject Israel’s “violation”.

He also commended United States President Donald Trump’s administration for not recognising Somaliland.

Although the US was the only member of the 15-member United Nations Security Council that did not condemn Israel for the recognition on December 30, it said its position on Somaliland had not changed.

For its part, Somaliland’s governing party has defended its newfound relations with Israel after Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Saar travelled to Hargeisa, the region’s largest city and self-declared capital, earlier this week.

Hersi Ali Haji Hassan, chairman of the governing Waddani party, told Al Jazeera days later that Somaliland was “not in a position to choose” who provided it with legitimacy after decades of being spurned by the international community.

“We are in a state of necessity for official international recognition,” Hassan said. “There is no choice before us but to welcome any country that recognises our existential right.”

Hassan did not deny the prospect of a potential military base.

“We have started diplomatic relations… This topic [a military base] has not been touched upon now,” he said.

When pressed on whether Somaliland would accept such a request in the future, Hassan said only to “ask the question when the time comes”, calling the line of inquiry “untimely”.

Israeli think tanks say Somaliland’s location, at the gateway to the Red Sea and across from Yemen, make it a strategic site for operations against the Yemeni Houthi rebel group, which imposed a naval blockade on Israeli-linked shipping before the US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza.

The Institute for National Security Studies, in a November report, said Somaliland’s territory could “serve as a forward base” for intelligence monitoring of the Houthis and serve “a platform for direct operations” against them.

The Houthis said that any Israeli presence would be a target, a statement Somaliland’s former intelligence chief, Mostafa Hasan, said amounted to a declaration of war.