Less than two hours after polling stations closed on Sunday, it was clear that Colombia’s presidential race would be settled in a run-off between two finalists: hard-right political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda.

Though the overall result surprised few, de la Espriella’s strong showing upended pollsters’ predictions.

Cepeda, President Gustavo Petro’s chosen successor, had been expected to win the most votes, based on public opinion surveys.

But instead, de la Espriella came in first place, winning 43.74 percent of the vote. Cepeda trailed with 40.90 percent.

Supporters of de la Espriella, a criminal defence lawyer, held rapturous celebrations in the coastal city of Barranquilla, where the candidate has an office.

“Colombia won, and with more than 10 million votes, democracy won,” said Elsa Suarez, a de la Espriella voter living in Bogota.

The far-right candidate has modelled himself after politicians like Donald Trump in the United States and Javier Milei in Argentina, flamboyant media personalities who won the presidency despite having little to no political experience.

Like them, de la Espriella has pledged a return to “law and order”, as well as a pared-back national government and policies to support traditional family values.

Notably, he promises to use an “iron fist” to stamp out crime and build megaprisons to jail criminals, mimicking the policies of Salvadoran strongman Nayib Bukele.

Analysts say de la Espriella’s populist messaging resonated with voters in Colombia’s interior, where urban crime is a growing concern.

Electoral maps show de la Espriella besting Cepeda in 16 of the country’s 32 departments, primarily in the heart of Colombia and along the border with Venezuela.

“In more central areas and closer to the capitals, people prioritise security,” explained Laura Bonilla, the deputy director at the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (PARES), a Bogota-based research nonprofit.

By contrast, de la Espriella’s security messaging failed to sway voters along the coast and in border areas afflicted by rebel violence.

Bonilla argues that people in these regions instead place greater value on the socioeconomic issues that Cepeda represents, as the continuity candidate for Petro’s Historic Pact party.

“Over the past four years, they have received constant attention from the government,” said Bonilla, citing state development projects under the Petro administration.

A blow to the conservative establishment

De la Espriella’s success also highlights growing anti-establishment sentiment in Colombia, according to experts.

The lawyer, who has never run for public office before, comfortably beat his main rival on the right, Senator Paloma Valencia, who was backed by former President Alvaro Uribe, the figurehead of Colombian conservatism.

Initially, Sunday’s election was predicted to be a close race between Valencia and de la Espriella, both of whom lagged behind Cepeda in the polls.

But as Sunday’s ballots were tallied, Valencia flopped with less than 7 percent of the vote.

Miguel Silva, a Colombian political consultant, credited some of de la Espriella’s success to his campaign messaging.

De la Espriella, he explained, used his campaign to draw a distinction between the haves and the have-nots, those who have benefitted from the government and those who feel ignored.

“He [succeeded] by portraying himself and the people he represents as ‘Los Nunca’ and by portraying Paloma and her followers as ‘Los Siempre’,” Silva said, using the Spanish words for “The Nevers” and “The Always”.

Pollsters predicted the right would be divided in the first round, paving the way for Cepeda to win the most votes, but de la Espriella captured millions of votes from traditional conservatives, marking a shift in Colombia’s political landscape.

In Bogota, the only province in the country’s interior to vote for Cepeda, the left-wing candidate’s supporters were shocked by Sunday’s results.

“Everyone is a little surprised,” said Juan Camilo Rodriguez, who voted for Cepeda. “These results don’t match the polls.”

Petro himself had hammered his base to flood the polls, warning that the left’s chances of success could be hampered by electoral fraud.

The outgoing president rejected last night’s results, which were based on the “pre-conteo”, or preliminary count, a non-legally binding process.

Instead, Petro called on the public to wait for the official, scrutinised count, which will be released in the coming days.

Cepeda echoed the president’s scepticism in a speech on Sunday night. “Only once the vote-counting committees have fully, clearly, and thoroughly clarified this matter, will we comment on tonight’s results,” he told supporters.

But the candidate appeared to mellow his stance this morning, acknowledging that there was no evidence of irregularities in the vote. He trailed de la Espriella by more than 670,000 votes.

Experts warn that Cepeda is losing precious time by focusing on fraud allegations and should instead concentrate on swaying moderate voters.

“By crying fraud so early, it’s hard to bring more voters to the table,” said Silva.

A second round of voting, between Cepeda and de la Espriella, is scheduled for June 21.

Up for grabs are more than a million votes for centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo and 1.6 million for Paloma Valencia. While Valencia endorsed de la Espriella, her running mate, moderate politician Juan Daniel Oviedo, did not.

Miguel Jaramillo Lujan, a Colombian political strategist, said the final two candidates must tread carefully in the next three weeks to prevail.

“As the saying goes, whoever makes fewer mistakes will be the winner.”

Colombia’s first-round presidential election, won by tough-talking conservative Abelardo de la Espriella, signaled what analysts describe as a growing backlash across Latin America against leftist governments.

The presidential election could carry significant implications for U.S. interests in the region, including drug trafficking, migration and regional stability, as voters increasingly prioritize security, counternarcotics policies and economic stability ahead of a June 21 runoff between de la Espriella and leftist candidate Ivan Cepeda.

“For the Trump administration, a Colombia that recommits itself to security cooperation, counternarcotics efforts, and stronger democratic institutions would be a major win and an important step forward towards restoring stability across the Western Hemisphere,” Melissa Ford Maldonado of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) told Fox News Digital from Colombia.

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“What happens in Colombia affects the flow of drugs into American communities, the strength of transnational criminal networks, migration pressures and the broader balance between democratic governments and criminalized regimes throughout the region,” she added.

The first-round winner, de la Espriella, a conservative lawyer and political outsider known as “El Tigre” (“The Tiger”), has emerged as the face of Colombia’s security-focused shift. 

An admirer of President Donald Trump and El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, won 43.7% of the vote Sunday, outperforming most polls and advancing to a runoff against left-wing Cepeda, the candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro. 

His campaign has centered on a hardline crackdown on criminal organizations, which he argues have flourished under Petro’s “Total Peace” policy.

In an interview with the Associated Press, de la Espriella pledged to open mega-prisons and take a far more aggressive approach toward criminal groups. “Criminals will either surrender or leave the country,” he said.

The vote comes as Colombia faces rising violence, expanding criminal organizations and growing criticism of President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” strategy, which sought negotiations with armed groups and criminal networks.

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“Colombia heads into a June 21 runoff with armed groups controlling vast stretches of the country, a failed ‘Total Peace’ negotiating strategy leaving communities more exposed than when it began, and a Venezuelan refugee crisis that has overwhelmed the state’s already thin capacity to govern its own territory,” Daniel Swift, senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital.

Maldonado said Colombia’s election reflects a wider political shift taking place across Latin America.

“This election is part of a broader trend across Latin America, where voters are increasingly rejecting the failed promises of the left in favor of security, sovereignty and economic opportunity,” she said.

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“We’ve seen it in Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Costa Rica and now increasingly in Colombia.”

Swift agreed the election results reflect a broader regional trend.

He said with de la Espriella outperforming “every poll, with security at the top of every voter’s mind — confirms that Colombia is part of a broader regional reckoning: Latin Americans are losing patience with governments that cannot provide security,” Swift said.

Maldonado said the results reflected mounting frustration with the country’s direction under Petro.

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“Years of growing insecurity, rising coca cultivation, expanding criminal organizations, and concessions to armed groups have left many Colombian people frustrated with the direction of the country,” she added.

The June 21 runoff is expected to focus heavily on security policy, organized crime and Colombia’s future relationship with the United States under the Trump administration. Maldonado argues it “offers Colombia an opportunity to begin reversing course and reestablish a principle that should have never been up for debate: criminal organizations should be confronted, not negotiated with.”