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From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025

Published

3 days ago

December 31, 2024

From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025

Voting in Europe during 2025 promises major political shifts – Germany’s snap Bundestag vote, Romania’s presidential race, Poland’s referendum on Tusk’s government and the rise of populist forces in Czechia, Norway and beyond. These contests could reshape the future of the European Union.

If 2024 was a year marked by elections around the world – featuring Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the consolidation of right-wing parties in the EU elections, a political shift in the UK from the Conservatives to Labour, and the re-election of Narendra Modi in India – 2025 promises to bring its own set of surprises in Europe.

Here’s a round-up of the key elections taking place in 2025 and what we can expect:

Germany: back in the European political game ?

After the Bundestag’s vote of no-confidence on Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 16 December 2024, snap elections are due to take place on 23 February 2025.

The electoral campaign has been marked by the attack on Magdeburg’s Christmas market on 20 December by a doctor, who is also refugee from Saudi Arabia. Though attacker held Islamophobic views, according to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, and expressed support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) party, the incident has nonetheless crystallised anti-immigration sentiment in a region of eastern Germany already won over by the AFD.

The AfD is currently polling at 20%, second behind the CDU/CSU (32%), which has capitalised on the rejection of the SPD-Grunen-FDP coalition. The CDU is headed by Friedrich Merz, a potential future chancellor, who is proposing a policy that is more economically liberal than under Merkel and more conservative socially, for example on the issue of migration.

Merz, who rose during the Helmut Khol era, is committed to a more integrated Europe. He wants to relaunch relations with France and Poland, criticises Europe’s heavy dependence on the United States and calls for Taurus Cruise missiles to be sent to Ukraine.

Romania: a tense presidential race after foreign meddling and the rise of anti-EU populism

Romania will hold new presidential elections in 2025 after the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of voting. The court’s decision came following concerns over foreign interference in an election where the centrist, pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi and far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu advanced to the second round.

The ruling followed evidence of Russian interference in the election, particularly the artificial boost Georgescu received on social media platforms, notably TikTok. Until then, Georgescu was relatively unknown to the public, but his online support alarmed authorities.

Meanwhile, the legislative elections, which were not annulled, saw a victory for the Social Democrats.

A new presidential vote is expected to take place in the first half of 2025. Official proceedings launched by the European Commission against TikTok under the Digital Services Act will provide deeper insight into how the platform’s algorithms function during elections.

Poland: a test of Tusk’s government approval amid strong right-wing opposition

The upcoming presidential elections in May in Poland are shaping up to feel like a referendum on the government led by Donald Tusk, in power since December 2023, which unites parties from the left to the centre-right. While it is Prime Minister Tusk (Civic Platform) who holds significant sway over day-to-day governance, the President still plays a crucial role. Current President Andrzej Duda from the Law and Justice (PiS) opposition party, who has held the position for eight years prior to Tusk’s return, has used his veto power to block many of the government’s policies.

The presidential race is now a showdown between candidates from the two main parties: Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw for Civic Platform (PO), and Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who will represent PiS. Although the race is tight, opinion polls suggest that the Civic Platform is likely to emerge victorious.

Italy: local elections challenge the stability of a government on shaky ground

An important electoral test awaits Giorgia Meloni next September, as elections will be held in six regions: Puglia, Campania, Le Marche, Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta, and Veneto. These elections will offer a snapshot of Italian public opinion on the relatively stable Meloni government, at least by Italian standards. Last November, coalition parties were outflanked by the centre-left coalition in the regional elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria – a setback for Meloni.

The Veneto region will come under particular scrutiny, given its large population and long history of being governed by the populist League, a key player in the ruling coalition.

In Puglia, MEP Antonio Decaro, chair of the Environment committee and of the Democratic Party could run as governor.

Czech Republic: the risk of a strong Europhobic axis in Central Europe

In Czechia, parliamentary elections will take place in October 2025.

The latest polls give ANO (which sits with The Patriots in the European Parliament), led by populist Andrej Babiš, 34.5% of the vote, well ahead The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) – with ECR in the EP-, led by conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala, expected to win 13.7%, followed by the center-right STAN party (EPP) – 11%.

Babis’ victory would strengthen a far-right axis in Central Europe, which includes Hungary’s Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. The billionaire former prime minister has been dubbed the “Czech Trump”. Anti-elite and anti-migrant, he is also opposed to more European Union integration and shows complacency towards Russia. Many fear attacks against democracy in Czechia if he returns to power.

Croatia: the reelection of a ‘nationalist’

Croatians will elect their President of the Republic in a second round run-off on 12 January. Zoran Milanovic, the current head of state, is standing for re-election. Heis running as an independent but is supported by a coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Zoran Milanovic took everyone by surprise during the parliamentary elections last April when he decided to run as head of the SDP list in Zagreb. His candidacy was rejected by the Constitutional Court.

The president calls himself a “nationalist.” He is opposed to the government’s support for Ukraine and the participation of Croatian soldiers in the NATO-led mission to train Ukrainian soldiers. He leads with 37,4% in the polls, ahead of Andrej Plenkovic (20,8%), the candidate supported by the prime minister’s party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – which sits with the European People Party (EPP) at the European Parliament – and advocates strengthening Croatia’s ties with its Western allies.

United Kingdom: will Labour’s victory last year translate into lasting support?

On 1 May, the UK will hold its first elections since last July’s general election, which saw the Labour Party return to power and Keir Starmer become Prime Minister.

This vote for England’s county councils will serve as a key test for Labour, revealing whether their victory last year will be the beginning of lasting support for the party.

According to Sky News, polls suggest that Labour and the Conservatives are currently neck and neck in the mid-20% range – a historically low level of backing for both parties – with Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s populist party, trailing by just five points. Reform UK currently holds no seats in local councils.

Belarus: an election with a silenced opposition

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election was marred by widespread electoral fraud, violent repression of the opposition and brutal crackdowns on protesters challenging the results. The election, which saw dictator Alexander Lukashenko claim a disputed victory with 80% of the vote, was widely condemned, with the European Union and other countries refusing to recognise the outcome. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994.

Since then, Belarusian human rights group Viasna has reported that over 50,000 people have been arrested on political grounds.

With the next election scheduled for 26 January, little is expected to change. Lukashenko has already warned that he may cut off internet access entirely during the 2025 presidential race if protests akin to those of 2020 erupt, according to state-run news outlet Belta in November.

Russia: a foregone conclusion

In the upcoming Russian elections next September, voters will casting their ballot for the Duma by-elections to fill vacant seats in the lower house of parliament, as well as for governors in 18 regions, regional parliaments in 11 regions, and local government representatives across various areas.

However, there are growing concerns regarding the fairness of these elections. Media freedom remains severely restricted, and political opponents continue to face harsh repression, personified by the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. These issues cast a long shadow over the integrity of the electoral process.

Norway: will the EU’s rightward shift reach Norway?

On 8 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections that will decide the makeup of the 169-seat Storting and indicate who might become the next prime minister. Jonas Gahr Støre, leader of the centre-left Labour Party, currently holds the position.

As seen across Europe, the latest polls suggest a shift towards right-wing parties. The far-right Progress Party is expected to come out on top – its 10% share of the vote in 2021 is predicted to double by 2025. Hot on their heels is the centre-right Conservative Party, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg.

Ireland: turning the page after Higgins

No official date has been set yet, but the Irish will head to the polls by November 2025 to elect a new president, ending the popular Michael D. Higgins’ 14 years in office. Although largely ceremonial, the role of the President holds significant constitutional responsibilities, such as signing bills into law and representing Ireland on the global stage.

While no candidates have formally entered the presidential race, Irish media outlet The Journal is speculating on potential contenders. Among the names mentioned are familiar faces from Brussels: former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness and former MEP Frances Fitzgerald – both from the centre-right party Fine Gael.

The upper house of the Irish Parliament, the Seanad, will also be renewed, though through an indirect process. Forty-nine senators will be elected by university graduates, while 11 will be appointed by the Prime Minister and vocational panels. Final results are expected from 30 January. These elections follow the dissolution of the lower house, the Dáil, on 8 November.

Georgia: will the local elections confirm the country’s pro-Russian orientation as pro-Europe protests continue?

In October 2025, Georgia will hold elections, one year after the disputed parliamentary elections won by the Georgian Dream party which as been widely accused of being pro-Russian. The country is the site of a struggle for influence between Russia and the West, while Russian troops have occupied 20% of Georgian territory since 2008.

The new government’s decision on 28 November to postpone the country’s EU accession process until 2028 provoked a wave of demonstrations in Tbilisi and other cities across the country. Georgia gained EU candidate status in December 2023, but the process was halted by the EU, citing the country’s democratically unstable conditions.

29 December marked the end of pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili’s term in office, who was replaced by the pro-Russian former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili. He was elected on 14 December by the parliament in which Georgian Dream has a majority, in a vote that was boycotted by the opposition. As the stranglehold on pro-European forces intensifies, demonstrators have faced a heavy-handed response by the authorities. Meanwhile, Salome Zurabishvili refuses to recognise the new president and stand down from her position.

Moldova: pro-Russian ambush as parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025

As a buffer state to Ukraine, Moldavia is facing attempts at Russian interference with a disinformation campaign. The referendum on accession to the European Union in autumn 2024 went down to the wire in favour of the “Yes” camp (50.35%). Meanwhile, the pro-European president Maia Sandu was re-elected in a second round of voting.

For the 2025 legislative elections, the President’s party (The Party of Action and Solidarity – PAS) is playing for keeps. If it fails to win a majority, it will have to contend with other political forces, not all of which supported the “Yes” vote in the referendum. For Maia Sandu, these elections will be “a final battle” in Moldova’s road to EU membership, in a country where pro-Russian political opposition remains strong.

Albania: the same two political parties fighting for power

In Albania, President Bajram Begaj has set parliamentary elections for 11 May 2025 after a consultation was boycotted by the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), which accused the president of endorsing a pre-determined date by the Socialist Party.

Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party and the DP are playing for big stakes in this election: the DP will be attempting to put an end to the Socialist Party’s three successive terms in office. The country has been in the throes of a serious political crisis for several years, the political debate being highly polarised between the DP and the socialists, heir to the communist regime and Enver Hoxha’s Party of Labour.

The opposition has accused the government of sending opposition figures to prison for political reasons. This lack of political plurality coupled with domestic resistance to fighting corruption makes EU accession talks challenging, with the negotiations for EU membership having officially started in 2022.

In May 2025, for the first time, Albanians living abroad will have the opportunity to vote.

Kosovo: will the pro-independence party keep its majority ?

In Kosovo, the Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje), Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party, is well set to win again in the parliamentary elections in February 2025. Since his landslide supermajority victory in 2021, the opposition has lacked leaders capable of challenging Kurti.

After the February’s poll, the question will be whether his party will be able to secure a majority or whether it will have to include opposition parties or representatives of the Serbian community in the government.

Srpska Lista, the Serbian ethnic party, has close ties with Serbia which does not recognise Kosovo’s independence which was declared in 2008 and is backed by key Western powers. After being refused the right to run for Parliamentary seats by the electoral commission, Srpska Lista was finally on 25 December granted the right to compete by an appeals body.

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World

European Ministers Visit Syria to Strengthen Ties With New Government

Published

4 hours ago

January 3, 2025

Press Room

European Ministers Visit Syria to Strengthen Ties With New Government

Syria’s new leaders met the French and German foreign ministers in the capital, Damascus, on Friday in one of the highest-level Western diplomatic visits since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad last month.

Annalena Baerbock of Germany and her French counterpart, Jean-Noël Barrot, arrived in Damascus for the first such trip in years on behalf on the European Union, as world powers have begun building ties with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that leads the new Syrian government.

Ms. Baerbock and Mr. Barrot met with Ahmad al-Shara, the group’s leader, after visiting the notorious Sednaya prison, where Mr. al-Assad’s regime had tortured and killed thousands of detainees.

“We are traveling to Damascus today to offer our support, but also with clear expectations of the new rulers,” Ms. Baerbock said in a statement before the meeting. “A new beginning can only happen if all Syrians, no matter their ethnicity and religion, are given a place in the political process.”

The visits are among a flurry of contacts between rebel leaders and Western officials looking to gradually open channels to the new Syrian authorities. Mr. al-Shara has worked to project a moderate image since taking power.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is still blacklisted as a terrorist group by the United States and the United Nations because of its past ties to Al Qaeda. Mr. al-Shara has called on the international community to remove that designation and sought to reassure minority groups, saying he wants to focus on rebuilding Syria after years of civil war.

“The current events demand the lifting of all sanctions on Syria,” he said in a televised interview last month.

Mr. Barrot said that France was urging the new rulers in Damascus to pursue a political transition that would allow “all the communities in Syria, in all their diversity, to be represented.” Part of that included reaching a “political solution” with the Kurdish minority, he said, which has carved out an autonomous region in northeastern Syria.

The diplomacy comes during a realignment across the Middle East, where Mr. al-Assad’s regime was a core part of Iran’s regional coalition. His family’s decades of iron-fisted rule were opposed by many Syrians, spurring the 2011 uprising and civil war. At least six foreign militaries were involved in the fighting, including those from Iran, Russia and Turkey.

Many countries — including the United States — have begun forging ties with the new government. In late December, Barbara Leaf, the senior State Department official for the Middle East, met with Mr. al-Shara in Damascus and told him that Washington would no longer pursue an outstanding bounty for his arrest.

Some Syrians — particularly Christians and other minority groups — are uncertain about Mr. al-Shara, pointing to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s conservative Islamist roots. In Idlib, a province controlled by the group since 2017, its leaders banned buying and selling alcohol and opened a chain of free religious schools. But Mr. al-Shara’s faction has eschewed the draconian decrees and brutal punishments of extremists like the Taliban and the Islamic State.

In a sign of the jitters among some Syrians, a posting on a Facebook page run by the Education Ministry this week described a new curriculum that was interpreted by some as taking a more Islamist slant.

It was not clear whether any of the changes had been implemented, but the minister of education, Nadhir Al-Qadri, said in a statement that the curriculum was unchanged except for the removal of “content glorifying the Assad regime” and the addition of images of the Syrian revolutionary flag.

Officials in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have laid out an ambitious plan for establishing a new government, and rebel leaders have assumed key positions to oversee a transition. They say they are establishing a caretaker government in consultation with Syrians of all backgrounds, as well as a committee to draft a new Syrian constitution.

Many in the region are also wary of the new Syrian government, including Gulf States like the United Arab Emirates, which has long tried to prevent the rise of groups that embrace political Islam, as well as Israel.

Overnight on Friday, Israeli warplanes bombed Syrian defense research sites near Aleppo, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitoring group. There were no immediate reports of casualties. Israel declined to comment on the report.

Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes against Syrian military sites since the fall of Mr. al-Assad in an effort to eliminate sophisticated arms like chemical weapons and long-range missiles. Mr. al-Shara has said he will uphold a longstanding cease-fire agreement with Israel, saying that Syria poses no threat to its neighbors.

Here are other developments in the region:

Houthi missile attacks: The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel before dawn on Friday, setting off air-raid sirens across central Israel, including in Jerusalem. The Israeli military said it had intercepted the missile and there were no reports of serious casualties. Israeli fighter jets have flown over 1,000 miles to strike Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen but Israel has struggled to stop the attacks, which have escalated over the past month.
Northern Gaza hospital: The Israeli military is operating near the Indonesian Hospital in northern Gaza, from which many doctors and patients have already fled, health officials there said, noting that the sound of gunfire could be heard outside. The Israeli military said it did not intend to evacuate the hospital. The Israeli military raided Kamal Adwan, another northern Gaza hospital, last week, charging that Hamas was operating in the compound. Israeli troops apprehended at least 240 people they said were militants, including Hussam Abu Safiya, the hospital director; Amnesty International has called for his release.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon: The Israeli military said on Thursday night that it had bombed Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon, while a 60-day truce largely continues to hold. Since the agreement went into effect in late November, Israel has repeatedly bombarded what it says are Hezbollah fighters violating the agreement. Hezbollah has generally refrained from responding militarily. The current cease-fire is set to expire in late January, although the United States and its allies hope it becomes permanent.

Abu Bakr Bashir and Aurelien Breeden contributed reporting.

World

Elon Musk demands UK act on grooming gang scandal amid growing calls for probe: 'National inquiry now!'

Published

5 hours ago

January 3, 2025

Press Room

Elon Musk demands UK act on grooming gang scandal amid growing calls for probe: 'National inquiry now!'

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is throwing his weight behind growing calls for a new investigation into the scandal of child abuse by grooming gangs, going so far as to back calls for King Charles III to intervene.

“National inquiry now!” Musk stated on X on Friday, declaring the scandal “the worst mass crime against the people of Britain ever.”

The U.K. has for years been dealing with the revelation that a number of grooming gangs, often consisting of men of South Asian or British Pakistani heritage, exploited children for decades across the north of England in cities and towns including Rochdale, Telford, Manchester and Rotherham.

BRITAIN HIT BY ANOTHER ASIAN GROOMING GANG SCANDAL AS REPORT EXPOSES CHILD SEX ABUSE IN MANCHESTER

Elon Musk listens as President-elect Donald Trump addresses a House Republicans Conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill on Nov. 13, 2024 in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

A 2014 independent review of grooming in Rotherham found that the majority of perpetrators were of Pakistani heritage and said that it was “hard to describe the appalling nature of the abuse that child victims suffered.”

“They were raped by multiple perpetrators, trafficked to other towns and cities in the north of England, abducted, beaten, and intimidated. There were examples of children who had been doused in petrol and threatened with being set alight, threatened with guns, made to witness brutally violent rapes and threatened they would be next if they told anyone,” the report said. “Girls as young as 11 were raped by large numbers of male perpetrators.”

That report found that around 1,400 children were abused between 1997 and 2013. It also stressed that abuse “is not confined to the past but continues to this day.”

The report found that police gave no priority to the abuse cases and failed to act. It also found that at least one report “was effectively suppressed” and others were ignored by local authorities. It found that while some did not believe the information, others were spooked by political correctness.

“Several staff described their nervousness about identifying the ethnic origins of perpetrators for fear of being thought racist; others remembered clear direction from their managers not to do so,” it said.

1,510 CHILDREN ABUSED IN ROTHERHAM SEX SCANDAL, NEW REPORT SAYS

A review in Telford found that a high proportion of the cases involved men described as “Asian” or “Pakistani” and that authorities in Telford were concerned that allegations “had the potential to start a ‘race riot.’” A broader Home Office report in 2020 said that while high-profile cases have “mainly involved men of Pakistani ethnicity,” it also cited research showing that group-based child sex exploitation offenders are most commonly White.

The scandal was seen by many as a prioritizing of multiculturalism and political correctness over the welfare of British children and the prosecution of criminals.

Britains Prime Minister Keir Starmer addresses members at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool, England, on Tuesday. (AP)

The issue recently reignited when local politicians in the town of Oldham asked the Home Office in July for a government inquiry into child abuse. A 2022 report into Oldham’s actions between 2011 and 2014 found that children were failed by local agencies, but it also found that there was no cover-up despite “legitimate concerns” that the far-right would capitalize on “the high-profile convictions of predominantly Pakistani offenders across the country.”

The Manchester Evening News reported Home Office Minister Jess Phillips responded to the request in October, saying that any such inquiry should be organized locally.

“Survivors sit at the heart of our work to end child sexual exploitation. Whatever happens in terms of future inquiries, we have promised them that their wishes will be paramount, and we will not renege on that pledge,’ a Home Office spokesperson told the outlet.

20 MEN FOUND GUILTY OF RAPING MORE THAN A DOZEN TEENAGE GIRLS IN NORTHERN ENGLAND

“We all recognize that terrible mistakes were made in the past, with children ignored or dismissed,” they said.

That response was slammed by Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch, who called for a full national inquiry into what she called the “rape gangs scandal.”

“The time is long overdue for a full national inquiry into the rape gangs scandal,” she said on X. “Trials have taken place all over the country in recent years but no one in authority has joined the dots.”

“2025 must be the year that the victims start to get justice,” she said.

King Charles III departs after receiving treatment for an enlarged prostate at The London Clinic on Jan. 29, 2024 in London. (Carl Court/Getty Images)

Musk, who has been tapped by President-elect Trump to lead the Department of Government Efficiency, also backed calls for King Charles III to intervene-noting that current Prime Minister Keir Starmer was head of the Crown Prosecution Service at the time of the scandals, although the scandals generally involved local authorities.

“Yes,” Musk said in response to a post saying the King “must step in.”

He continued, “They oppose an inquiry, because it will show that those in power were complicit in the cover-up,” he said of the government.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting responded to Musk’s comments, telling ITV News that the government takes child abuse “incredibly seriously” and repeating that an inquiry in Oldham should be led locally.

“Some of the criticisms that Elon Musk has made, I think are misjudged and certainly misinformed, but we’re willing to work with Elon Musk, who I think has got a big role to play with his social media platform to help us and other countries to tackle this serious issue,” he said. “So if he wants to work with us and roll his sleeves up, we’d welcome that.”

Fox News Digital reached out to the British government’s Home Office for comment.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

World

Calls for boldness and stability at Bayrou's first ministers' meeting

Published

6 hours ago

January 3, 2025

Press Room

Calls for boldness and stability at Bayrou's first ministers' meeting

This article was originally published in French

The new government’s priorities under François Bayrou are to adopt the 2025 budget and reduce the public deficit.

French President Emmanuel Marcon called for boldness and stability at the first Council of Ministers meeting held by François Bayrou’s new government.

As is the tradition at the start of the new year, the ministers first met at the Ministry of the Interior for a breakfast.

The 35 ministers then crossed the street in close ranks to join Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace.

“This government was born in the turmoil of a major political crisis. You know the picture: censure, the breakdown of majorities, the rise of extremes,” declared government spokeswoman Sophie Primas at a press conference.

She called on “everyone” to “shoulder their responsibilities” and “move away from inflexible positions” in favour of “demanding” and “going beyond”, rather than “obstructing”.

Budget vote

The government’s priority is to adopt the 2025 budget.

The rating agencies, financial markets and the European Commission are also urging France to reduce its deficit in order to comply with EU rules on budgetary discipline.

The Stability and Growth Pact sets the debt ceiling at 60% of GDP and a public deficit ceiling at 3% of GDP.

The public deficit was 6.1% of GDP in 2024, and the government’s target is to reduce it to 5.4% of GDP in 2025. The previous, and more ambitious target set by former Prime Minister Michel Barnier, was 5% in 2025.

Mayotte, devastated by cyclone Chido, is also awaiting a bill promised by François Bayrou earlier this week.

Emmanuel Macron appointed François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister on 13 December 2024, and tasked him with forming a new government. The composition of the government was announced on 23 December 2024.

Michel Barnier’s previous government was toppled on 4 December following the adoption of a motion of censure in the National Assembly.