World
French National Assembly election: What’s at stake and what to expect?
French voters will cast their ballots on Sunday in the first of two rounds to elect 577 members of the National Assembly, as country looks set to enter a new political era.
The elections come after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap vote triggered by a crushing defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (NR) party at the European Parliament elections on June 9.
Polls suggest the coming elections will confirm the trend. NR leads strongly with 36 percent of the vote, followed by left-wing bloc Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) at 28.5 percent, trailed by Macron’s centrist alliance – Ensemble – with 21 percent.
If the results echo the polls, Macron might have to cohabitate with an antagonistic prime minister, regardless of who is elected.
How do the French elections work?
Voting opens at 06:00 GMT and is expected to end at 16:00 GMT in most of the country, but polling stations in Paris and other major cities will stay open until 18:00 GMT.
To win a majority in the National Assembly, a party or alliance needs 289 seats — just over the halfway mark in the House. Macron’s outgoing coalition fell short of that number, limiting its ability to push through its legislative agenda.
For the verdict on any of the 577 seats to be called on Sunday, July 30, two conditions need to be met. First, the voter turnout needs to be at least 25 percent. Second, a candidate needs to win an absolute majority of votes cast.
In a multiparty system like France’s, that typically means that many, if not most, contests go to a second round of voting – scheduled this time for July 7.
Only those candidates who secure at least 12.5 percent of the vote in the first round can stand in the second round, effectively narrowing the field of contestants.
Why is this election so different?
Traditionally, National Assembly elections are held straight after the presidential vote, and so reflect the same popular mood. The result is a prime minister from the same political party as the president, who then can implement policies with a strong mandate.
But those power dynamics have now shifted and for the first time in 22 years, France will have a state of cohabitation: a deeply unpopular president ruling alongside a government elected in as a vote of dissatisfaction against Macron himself.
“It will mark the beginning of a new way of governing and the end of the presidential agenda,” said Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for European Perspective and Security Studies, a think tank on diplomacy and political analysis. “Macronism has already almost collapsed and it will exit the election totally wiped out,” he said.
How did we get here?
Macron first came to power in 2017 riding a wave of support, as he pledged to create a centrist bloc, lacing the moderate left and right together. But it didn’t take long before his language started sounding too aloof to the ears of people in the suburbs – he got the nickname Jupiter. His economic reforms were too right wing to liberals who had previously backed him; and his way of governing was seen as too despotic by many right and left voters.
Now, the election could mark an end to Jupiter’s solo show, as France looks set to enter a new political era.
“He runs the country like a CEO of a company,” said Samantha de Bendern, associate fellow at Chatham House. “But a country is not a company and he failed to build alliances with partners – Macron is a loner,” de Bendern said.
One of the starkest signals of his isolation was the Yellow Vest movement – a period of violent protests in 2018. What started as workers on lower-middle incomes infuriated by planned increases in diesel taxes snowballed into a wider movement against the president’s perceived bias in favour of the elite. His second mandate was marked by a highly contested bill in 2023 to raise the country’s retirement by two years which turned into another huge domestic challenge as he faced widespread opposition.
And while he won a second mandate in 2022 – in good measure by scaring, rather than attracting, voters over the prospect of the far right taking over the presidency – the tactic seems to have tired many. “There is a feeling of anger – people are fed up with showing this scare for Le Pen while being forced to vote for Macron to keep out the far right,” de Bendern said.
What is Le Pen’s ‘dediabolisation’?
Meanwhile, Le Pen has meticulously crafted a so-called dediabolisation – de-demonisation – strategy over the past two decades, aimed at broadening the party’s base while tempering its radical discourse to distance itself from many references that had made the NR too toxic to several voters.
The party has long been associated with notorious racists, and xenophobic and anti-Semitic slurs. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, once convicted of hate speech for saying that Nazi gas chambers were “a detail of history”, was expelled from the party in 2015. Le Pen convinced the moderate right instead that she was not a threat to democracy and conquered areas traditionally close to the far left, especially in the Communist Party, promising social welfare policies and tight restrictions on migrants.
“Many [by voting NR] are expressing their opposition to a system that they feel is depriving them of what they deserve in favour of people, mostly foreigners, who are getting benefits that are not due,” said Baptiste Roger-Lacan, historian and political analyst with a focus on far-right parties in Europe.
Today, the party’s candidate to be the country’s prime minister is Jordan Bardella, an impeccably dressed 28-year-old man who looks like a mix between a Wolf of Wall Street and Superman’s alter ego Clark Kent. Yet he comes from the suburbs and speaks to his tens of thousands of followers not just on the street but also on TikTok. He has no experience in governance.
On the other side, far to centre-left parties have united under the New Popular Front. Its most vocal cause has been its support for the Palestinian cause amid the war in Gaza, a position that has earned the grouping popularity among young voters and the Muslim community.
By contrast, the NR has firmly supported Israel condemning “pogroms on Israeli soil” and attacking the leader of the far-left La France Insoumise party, Jean-Luc Melenchon, for failing to call the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel “terrorism” – something that has caused friction within the bloc itself.
What would a far-right win mean?
The most serious repercussion of a win for the NR is going to be on the domestic front. While the party now says anti-Semitism is a problem of the left-wing party, it has shifted its focus against migrants and Muslims. France is home to Europe’s biggest Muslim community, with families settled there for several generations.
While Bardella did not specify what “specific legislation” he would push for to fight “Islamist ideologies”, he said in the past the party would work to ban the wearing of the Islamic headscarf in public spaces and to make it easier to close mosques.
The RN has also made its top priority the adoption of stringent border controls, the scrapping of birthright citizenship – a practice that for centuries has been granting citizenship to those born in France to foreign parents – and the introduction via constitutional referendum of the “national preference”, a system by which someone would be excluded benefits from social security rights unless with a French passport.
“Clearly the NR is still xenophobic so any foreigner has something to lose, any foreigner who has not a European heritage would have to lose something if the NR were to be elected,” Roger-Lacan said.
And what about foreign policy?
With his eyes on power, Bardella has been softening or reversing some of the party’s traditional positions. He made a U-turn on Ukraine saying he was committed to keep providing military support to Kyiv, while pushing back against critics’ allegations of some party members’ links to the Kremlin.
Still, considering Macron’s unwavering stance on Ukraine and France’s role as a pillar of the European Union, a Bardella-led government not committed as much to the European project, would mark a shift.
During a news conference on Monday, Bardella said he opposes sending French troops and weaponry capable of striking targets on Russian soil.
“He is in a phase where is trying to reassure the non-NR electorate, and possibly future EU partners, but clearly the party gaining power would add a lot of tension between France and the rest of the EU,” said Roger-Lacan, who is also former deputy editor-in-chief at the think tank Le Grand Continent.
Unlike Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had transitioned towards more Atlantic, pro-NATO, pro-EU positions years before her election victory in 2022, Roger-Lacan explains, the NR’s conversion “sounds extremely contextual”.
Still, should the far right win the elections, observers note, it could end up abstaining from creating too much tremor, should it win the elections, as the group is playing the long game. It’s ultimate goal: capturing the presidency in 2027.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the French snap legislative elections.
For the second time in under a month, the ruling centrist coalition of French President Emmanuel Macron was dealt a heavy blow on Sunday by the far-right National Rally (RN) which secured the top position in the first round of the country’s snap legislative elections.
Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called the snap election on 9 June after RN swept to victory in the European elections, obtaining more than double the number of votes Macron’s centrist coalition did.
Macron’s decision to call the election was described by commentators as either a ploy that could grant him the absolute majority he lost two years ago or a dangerous gamble that could see the far-right helm a government for the first time in the country.
Which is it? Euronews brings you the main takeaways from the first round.
Far-right makes historic gains
The National Rally (RN), led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, appears to have cemented its position as the country’s main political force by securing over 33% of the vote nationwide.
If the score is confirmed next Sunday in the second round, the party could secure between 230 and 280 seats – just nine seats short of an absolute majority.
Bardella pledged on Sunday that he would be “the prime minister for all the people of France … respectful of the opposition, open to dialogue and concerned at all times with the unity of the people” all while taking swipes at Macron’s alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front.
The second round, he added, will be “one of the most decisive (votes) in the history of the Fifth Republic”.
The far-right’s gains in the first round marked a historic performance for the party in a legislative election.
In 2017, the then-called National Front gained 13% of the vote in the first round and 2022, they received 18% of the vote.
Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, told Euronews that “what we see is that people are no longer ashamed to vote for the National Rally”.
“Not only are they no longer ashamed to do so, but they are no longer ashamed to say so,” she said.
While a scenario where the RN wins the absolute majority in parliament may not be the “most probable,” it cannot be “excluded,” she said.
Macron’s big loss
Three weeks after suffering a crushing defeat in the European elections, Macron’s centrist coalition, Ensemble, was dealt another devastating blow by coming in third with just 21% of the nationwide vote.
That’s 12 points and seven points below the far-right RN and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, respectively.
About 300 of its candidates are still in contention for a seat in the 577-seat hemicycle. But if its first-round score is confirmed next Sunday, it could mean the centrist coalition could shed as many as 180 seats and retain only between 70 and 100 MPs.
Provided no other alliance gets an absolute majority, Macron could in theory try to form a ruling coalition but that might be a tall order.
The presidential camp has repeatedly rejected any notion of working with the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party with Macron himself saying that if the RN or LFI were to get into power, it could lead to “civil war”.
ADVERTISEMENTParties that Macron could therefore try to rally for a more “moderate” coalition include the Socialists and the Greens on the left and the Republicans on the right.
But it’s unclear if they could find a landing zone or if they would jointly have the 289 seats needed.
Could there be a ‘Republican front’ against the RN?
Within minutes of the exit poll showing the far-right National Rally largely in the lead, political leaders on the left started calling for a so-called “Republican front”.
They pledged to withdraw third-place candidates who qualified for the second round in an effort to prevent the RN from winning seats due to a split vote between the other parties.
This is true of LFI, the Socialists, Greens, and Communists, and also of certain members of Macron’s centrist coalition.
ADVERTISEMENT“I say this with all the force that each and every one of our voters must muster. Not a single vote must go to the National Rally,” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said in his speech on Sunday.
Other members of the president’s coalition have called on their voters not to support members of LFI, saying that neither the RN nor the party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which is part of the left-wing coalition, should get a vote.
For Mathias Bernard, a specialist in French political history and president of the University of Clermont Auvergne, “withdrawals or, conversely, triangular contests are the key to the election.”
“If each of the three blocs goes it alone in the second-round battle, the RN is likely to win an absolute majority. If there is a sort of ‘Republican front’, it will be more difficult for the RN,” he told Euronews.
“However, it is not certain that this “Republican front” will materialise,” he said, naming Ensemble and the Republicans as the two parties where third-placed candidates might most resist being asked to withdraw.
ADVERTISEMENTHigh turnout in snap election
There was intense interest in the snap poll called by Macron, with several voters telling Euronews ahead of the vote that they were disappointed with the president’s policies and wanted change.
Turnout, which is often low in France, increased significantly during these elections.
In the first round of the 2017 and 2022 legislative elections, the participation rate did not reach 50%, according to interior ministry figures. The first round of this poll saw the participation rise to 66.7%.
“High turnout and fewer candidates led to an unprecedented number of three-way contests in the second round,” according to Célia Belin, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Paris office.
The presidential coalition’s refusal to systematically withdraw due to the presence of LFI candidates, however, could “increase anti-RN voters’ confusion about the best course of action,” she said.
ADVERTISEMENTManon Aubry, a leftist EU lawmaker, told reporters on Sunday that she met many first-time young voters when she went to vote in Paris.
This mobilisation, especially in disadvantaged neighbourhoods, should be welcomed and amplified, she said.
The results also sparked protests in the country, with thousands of left-wing voters gathering over the gains of the far-right.
Series “Barzakh,” starring top Pakistani actors Fawad Khan and Sanam Saeed, has unveiled a trailer.
Set in the Hunza Valley, “Barzakh” centers on a 76-year-old man who surprises his estranged children and grandchildren by announcing his engagement to the ghost of his first love. This revelation triggers a series of emotional confrontations as the family gathers, unsure how to respond to the situation.
The trailer suggests that “Barzakh” will explore themes of interconnectedness and enduring love, weaving local folklore into its storyline. The series poses the question: “When all has withered, will love endure?”
The six-episode series is produced by Waqas Hassan and Shailja Kejriwal for Zindagi, the Indian subcontinent focused programming block on streamer ZEE5 Global. It is helmed by critically acclaimed director Asim Abbasi who also directed Zindagi’s first Pakistani original “Churails” and the feature film “Cake,” which was Pakistan’s entry for the 2019 Oscars.
Khan said: “After having seen ‘Cake,’ when I was approached for ‘Barzakh,’ I jumped at the opportunity. Asim’s work sets him apart as a very unique director whose emphasis is on character development in a way that is contemporary. Also, I’ve always wanted to attempt something out of the ordinary and ‘Barzakh’ is nothing ordinary. It’s downright experimental and I love it.”
“Asim and Shailja are a power combo. They’ve tuned into each other’s sensibilities and aesthetics. That makes the process all the more easier,” Khan added. “As a producer, how Waqas brought the story to life is nothing short of extraordinary, and his dedication to the craft is deeply inspiring.”
The series reunites Khan and Saeed for the first time since their hit show “Zindagi Gulzar Hai” (2012). “Working with Sanam after all these years is still a comfort zone. I enjoyed it and I believe in her skills. It always makes my job easy. I hope you enjoy watching it as much as we enjoyed the process of making it,” Khan said.
Saeed added: “Being part of ‘Barzakh’ has been an immensely rewarding experience for me. The show’s premise, which explores themes of family, love, loss, and the afterlife, fascinated me from the start. As an actor, I’m constantly seeking roles that challenge me and offer a fresh perspective on storytelling. ‘Barzakh’ does just that, presenting a narrative that transcends conventional boundaries and delves into the realms of the mystical and the unknown.”
“From the minute Asim narrated the story to me, I instantly knew that I had to be a part of this project. Asim has always been a person who tries to explore the unexplored, and this is why I have always been
his fan,” Saeed said. “What excites me the most about this is reuniting with a stellar actor like Fawad and sharing the screen with Salman Shahid, Sajid Hasan and the other Fawad [M. Fawad Khan] who I’ve worked closely with in theater. Shailja as a producer has been an absolute dream to work with as always. Now, with the global release of ‘Barzakh,’ I cannot wait to take the viewers into the world of nowhere.”
Following its well-received premiere at Series Mania in France, “Barzakh” will stream worldwide on Zindagi’s YouTube channel and ZEE5 Global from July 19.
Watch the trailer here:
All US military bases in Europe put on heightened alert
Fox News correspondent Lucas Tomlinson reports on the reaction to President Biden’s debate performance and U.S. bases in Europe being placed on heightened alert status due to a potential terrorist attack on ‘Fox Report.’
U.S. military bases throughout Europe have been put on heightened alert status due to a potential terrorist attack, Fox News Digital has confirmed.
“There is credible intel pointing to an attack against U.S. bases over the next week or so,” a U.S. defense official told Fox News’ Lucas Tomlinson.
The official, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media, did not elaborate on the nature of the threat, but confirmed it was not tied to the French elections.
FILE – Sign in front of Ramstein Air Base, Germany. (Ramstein Air Base (Facebook))
ISIS REMAINS GLOBAL THREAT A DECADE AFTER DECLARING CALIPHATE, US MILITARY OFFICIAL SAYS
The official said all U.S. military bases in Europe have been placed on high alert, not a lock-down.
FILE – U.S. Air Force Airmen assigned to the 721st Mobility Support Squadron pose for a unit photo, Sept. 12, 2022, Ramstein Air Base, Germany. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Edgar Grimaldo)
The U.S. bases have raised the status of the alert level to, “Force Protection Charlie,” which means the Pentagon has received credible intelligence indicating some form of a terrorist attack is in the works.
The new alert applies to all U.S. military facilities and personnel in Europe, including facilities in Germany, Italy, Romanian and Bulgaria, per reporting from Stars and Stripes.
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