Kyiv reacted to Russia’s annexation of 4 Ukrainian areas by asserting a shock, fast-tracked bid to affix the NATO navy alliance. 

Present members Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro and North Macedonia again the bid.

However, tellingly, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg shied away from supporting it, whereas US safety adviser Jake Sullivan mentioned the applying needs to be postponed.

Listed here are 5 the explanation why Ukraine is unlikely to be becoming a member of NATO any time quickly.

1. Ukraine becoming a member of NATO would threat a wider conflict

Being at conflict complicates the image.  

Beneath Article 5 of NATO’s collective defence settlement, if one member state is attacked all of the others should think about this an assault on themselves and are available to their ally’s support. 

What this implies is that if Ukraine joined NATO whereas nonetheless at conflict with Russia, Article 5 could be triggered. 

“There are escalatory dangers in making Ukraine a member,” mentioned John Williams, a professor at Durham College who specialises in worldwide politics, conflict and sovereignty, warning it may result in a “nightmare state of affairs”. 

“NATO would [be] pitched extra clearly into the conflict in a way more direct approach,” he continued, that means different members that border Russia, such because the Baltic States and Poland, may “doubtlessly develop into a frontline”.

As Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership purposes have superior, Putin has threatened to reply in sort, ought to NATO deploy troops and infrastructure there.

However this present reluctance didn’t imply completely shutting the door to Ukraine. As soon as the conflict is over Ukraine may nonetheless be part of the alliance, with Ukraine remaining a reputable future member. 

“Let’s get the battle over first,” mentioned Jamie Shea, a former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary Normal. “In the interim the important thing subject is to protect Ukraine as a functioning state and get the Russian forces off its territory.”

“Let’s cook dinner as we speak’s dinner and fear about subsequent week’s dinner later,” he added. 

2. NATO membership is ‘not needed’ for Ukraine

NATO is already dedicated to Ukraine. 

Alongside the tens of billions of euros in navy and monetary support from particular person NATO member states, the alliance itself offers big assist to Ukraine, coordinating this bilateral help and the supply of humanitarian and non-lethal support. 

“It is ironic,” mentioned Shea. “All of those weapons flowing [into Ukraine] imply that, in a approach, Ukraine already has a NATO safety assure […] with out membership.”

“Typically you will get quite a lot of advantages of NATO membership with out truly becoming a member of,” he added, citing the instance of Kosovo, which was supported by peacekeepers from the alliance within the late Nineties. 

The identical goes for the nuclear risk, suggests Prof Williams. 

Following feedback by Chechen chief Ramzan Kadyrov that Russia ought to use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Washington mentioned it will retaliate severely, with former CIA director David Petraeus claiming the US would wipe out Russian troops in Ukraine and sink its complete Black Sea fleet.

3. Ukraine is ‘not prepared’ for NATO membership

Earlier than they will be part of NATO, nations should first meet sure financial, political and navy requirements.

In accordance with Prof Williams, Ukraine stays a “great way” from fulfilling these membership standards, pointing to “issues” with the nation’s “democratic establishments” and “anti-corruption processes”. 

“We aren’t a few years away from Ukrainian elections being fairly corrupt issues … and the huge road protests that attempted to place Ukraine on the trail in the direction of turning into a contemporary, liberal, democratic European state,” he mentioned. 

“[This] path now seems irrevocable. Putin has assured that. However it’s a lengthy path, Ukraine’s political establishments have work to do.”

Ukraine’s bid to affix the European Union (EU) faces related difficulties, with issues surrounding whether or not it can meet the bloc’s requirements and expectations. 

But there are hopes that the conflict will enhance Ukraine’s means to fulfill NATO’s necessities, particularly militarily.

“Ukraine goes to come back out of this with in all probability among the best armies in NATO as a result of it has obtained plenty of western gear and coaching,” mentioned Shea. 

It will make it a “extra enticing candidate” in the long term, he added. 

4. It is troublesome to get all NATO members to again Ukraine’s bid

Beneath NATO guidelines, new members can solely be admitted if all 30 members agree. Even when one disagrees it will probably impede — and even derail — the entire course of.

Sweden and Finland have encountered this issue with their very own NATO membership requests, with Turkey elevating preliminary objections.  

In the identical approach, Hungary may show to be an issue for Ukraine’s membership bid. 

The nations, which share a land border, have a long-running dispute in regards to the rights of Ukraine’s Hungarian-speaking minority. 

Since 2017, when Ukraine made Ukrainian the required language in major colleges, Hungary has repeatedly blocked Ukraine’s try and combine with each NATO and the EU.

“Orban is the sort of man who will make bother if he feels he’s obtained common assist,” mentioned Shea. “Take a look at his document within the EU.”

Orban has repeatedly criticised the West’s technique towards Russia and positioned himself as an ally of Putin, slamming using sanctions and placing fuel offers with Moscow.

Opinions in different European capitals are additionally a problem.

“The large query is whether or not France and Germany, what chances are you’ll name the wets of the [NATO] alliance, would agree,” mentioned William Alberque, director of technique, expertise and arms management on the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research assume tank. “Would they be prepared to go that far?”

In 2008, each Paris and Berlin blocked makes an attempt by Ukraine and Georgia to affix the alliance, whereas in February 2022 — only a week earlier than the invasion — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz mentioned Ukraine’s membership was not on the playing cards.

5. Ukraine becoming a member of NATO could be a ‘propaganda victory’ for Putin

For the reason that outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, Putin has touted the road that Russia is threatened by NATO.

He has routinely justified invading Ukraine to rid Russia of this risk, which he claims is a hazard to Russia’s territorial integrity.  

If Ukraine had been to affix NATO’s built-in defence plan, Shea claims this might invariably contain placing western troops and navy bases on Ukrainian soil.

“This may give Putin a large propaganda increase,” he mentioned. “Putin is attempting tremendous, tremendous arduous, even desperately, to persuade the Russians that there’s an exterior existential risk from NATO […] bringing in Ukraine now would simply play to the palms of that narrative.” 

“Who needs to offer Putin an olive department?” he requested.

NATO officers and western politicians have repeatedly made it clear that the conflict in Ukraine is a battle between Kyiv and Moscow, with US President Joe Biden saying he wouldn’t drag the alliance right into a wider battle over Ukraine. 

There have been issues that this “propaganda victory” would come on the improper time, amid Ukraine’s lightening advances on the battlefield and the anti-war feeling in Russia. 

Whereas he staunchly supported Ukraine’s membership bid, Alberque mentioned: “Putin has been making his personal nightmares come true throughout Europe … Ukraine aligned with the West, endlessly turned away, Finland and Sweden in NATO. 

“I imply, he is simply actually good at capturing himself within the foot,” he added.