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EU's divided right wing can disrupt if it finds greater unity: experts

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EU's divided right wing can disrupt if it finds greater unity: experts

They’re set to make historic gains in June’s European elections, but Europe’s rising right wing parties need to find unity if they are to wield greater influence on the EU stage, experts tell Euronews.

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Across the bloc, hard-right parties are roping in voters with promises to slash migration figures, slam the brakes on climate action and strip back EU powers – all in defence of so-called “national sovereignty.”

The right-wing surge predicted by the polls has raised concern that a bolstered Eurosceptic camp could strain the coalition of progressive, pro-European parties that has reigned over Brussels for decades.

But these right-wing parties remain deeply disunited on a raft of critical issues – in particular foreign policy, the EU’s support for Ukraine and the rule of law. These divisions mean that forming a united right-wing bloc in the European Parliament is currently inconceivable.

But experts say that Europe’s hard right could build greater “discipline” and put its house in order following June’s election to progress its agenda on the EU stage.

“There is an assumption that just because they differ so much, they are such a mixed group of politicians and parties that they will never offer a consistent platform and therefore they are not such a big danger,” Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow at the European Centre for Foreign Relations, said.

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“This is far from given,” Zerka warned. “It’s possible that also they become more disciplined and more co-operative because they realise that it’s in their interest to have a more consistent and united voice in the European Parliament.” 

“So we shouldn’t prematurely assume that they will be a disagreeing, chaotic bunch,” he added.

‘Big changes’ looming

In the European Parliament, right-wing parties are split into two political families.

The radical, far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group – which is set to clinch some 82 seats (+23) in June – hosts the likes of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, Geert Wilders’ Dutch Party for Freedom, Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Alternative for Germany. It will compete with the centrist Renew Europe to become the parliament’s third-biggest force.

The traditionally softly Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group meanwhile includes Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), Spain’s Vox and the Sweden Democrats. Polls predict ECR will gain seven more seats to reach a total of 75 lawmakers in the next European Parliament.

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ID is generally seen as more radical, more anti-European and more hardline in its views on key issues such as migration. But the ideological lines that split these two groups are sometimes incoherent.

For example, Spain’s Vox belongs to ECR while Portugal’s Chega belongs to ID, despite their close political affinities and Chega often being branded the “Portuguese Vox.”

In France, Eric Zemmour’s Reconquête! is also part of ECR, despite many seeing the party as more radical than its national competitor, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, which is part of ID.

ECR harbours other hard-line groups such as the Sweden Democrats and the Finns Party, which many feel would find a more politically suitable home within ID.

With the elections set to trigger a realignment of the parliament, analysts say parties are actively looking to reconfigure their membership in order to bolster their influence.

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“I would not be surprised if big changes take place ahead of these elections,” Francesco Nicoli, visiting fellow at Bruegel, told Euronews.

Fidesz, the ultra-nationalist right-wing party of Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán, which currently has no group after it was expelled from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) in 2022, could be looking to join the ECR, whilst Giorgia’s Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia is seen as a possible contender to join or form bridges with the mainstream centre-right EPP.

Nicoli also explained that the election of the European Commission President, a process which in principle should be driven by the results of the elections, could also trigger big changes in the way the right operates in the parliament.

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Outgoing President Ursula von der Leyen, tipped to secure a second term, has left the door ajar to working with ECR post-election, with EPP sources citing Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia and Czech premier Peter Fiala’s ODS – both members of ECR – as parties that share the EPP’s core values.

“Because of von der Leyen’s personal relationship with Meloni and because she needs votes, it’s possible that she will poke holes into the cordon sanitaire,” Nicoli explained, referring to the firewall that has traditionally prevented mainstream parties from collaborating with the hard right.

Shifting degrees of Euroscepticism

Parties from both the ECR and ID groups have in recent years shifted in their degrees of scepticism towards the European institutions in Brussels. It means parties sitting within the same groups have slightly different perceptions of how to defend their national interest vis-a-vis the EU capital.

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The ID group harbours previously staunch anti-Europeans such as the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and France’s Le Pen, both of whom have in the past promised voters a referendum on EU membership.

But Le Pen has significantly softened her anti-European rhetoric over the past eight years, abandoning plans to leave the bloc and advocating for the defence of French sovereignty by curbing European integration and “reforming” the bloc – a stance more compatible with that of ECR. Wilders has similarly abandoned his call for the Netherlands’ EU exit.

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“Marine Le Pen’s RN party has evolved and is no longer necessarily against the European Union as a principle. The same applies to Alternative for Germany (AfD),” Bruegel’s Nicoli explained.

Meanwhile the ECR harbours a range of nation-first parties whose stance on EU integration seems to be drifting ever further apart. Italian premier Meloni and Czech premier Fiala – both of whose parties belong to ECR – are seen as constructive partners in Brussels circles.

But fellow ECR member Sweden Democrats vowed as recently as last February to purge Sweden’s constitution of references to the European Union. Prominent figures within the Finns Party – also ECR – have expressed a long-term goal of leaving the EU. Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) also veered from Eurosceptic to anti-European during its eight-year stint in power, which ended last year.

Divided on Ukraine, Russia

Similarly, on Ukraine, Europe’s hard right parties are deeply divided.

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Bulgaria’s blatantly pro-Russian Vazrazhdane (Revival) party joined the ID group this February, days after it sent a delegation to Moscow to meet representatives of Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, and despite other parties within the group trying to purge themselves of historic ties to the Kremlin.

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Marine Le Pen, whose party has traditionally been marred by allegations of proximity to the Kremlin, has aimed to scrub Rassemblement National of its pro-Russian image 

Her party, whose European campaign is spearheaded by Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella, backs supporting Ukraine’s efforts to withhold Russia’s assault in principle, but nonetheless opposes Ukraine’s EU accession and calls for curbing French military aid to Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Orbán’s efforts to frustrate EU decisions on aid to Ukraine mean his Fidesz party’s possible entry into ECR would probably be a no-go for staunchly pro-Ukraine Law and Justice (PiS) and the Finns party, which defected from ID to ECR last year in a bid to cut its ties with Putin-friendly parties.

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As Putin visits, Vietnam says will boost ties with Russia for global peace

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As Putin visits, Vietnam says will boost ties with Russia for global peace

Vietnamese President To Lam has welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hanoi by promising to boost ties for the peace and stability of the region as well as the world.

Putin, who was received with a 21-gun salute during a military ceremony on Thursday, said strengthening a comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam was one of Russia’s priorities.

The visit has resulted in a sharp rebuke from the United States. Russia faces a slew of US-led sanctions for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In 2023, the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes. The Kremlin rejected it as “null and void”, stressing that Moscow does not recognise the court’s jurisdiction.

Reporting from Hanoi, Al Jazeera’s Tony Cheng said that Vietnam was “very keen to make … Putin feel welcome but at the same time they do have strong relationships with China and the US they want to protect”.

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The Russian leader concluded a defence pact with North Korea a day earlier. But in Vietnam, he only signed deals to further cooperation on education, science and technology, energy, climate change and health.

“Weapons will be discussed but not those going to Russia but those coming into Vietnam,” Cheng said. “The Vietnam military is still very heavily reliant on Russian-made arms, but they found it increasingly difficult to get them, particularly since the war in Ukraine started.”

“So, they will be wanting some guarantees, but there is also pressure on the Vietnamese military to diversify their military reliance on Russia. That is probably a theme for the trip.”

Warm welcome

Putin arrived at Vietnam’s Presidential Palace on Thursday, where he was greeted by schoolchildren waving Russian and Vietnamese flags.

He shook hands with and embraced Lam before a bilateral meeting and a joint briefing to the media.

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The Russian leader is also scheduled to meet Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong – Vietnam’s most powerful politician – Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and parliamentary chief Tran Thanh Man.

Putin’s recent visits to China and now North Korea and Vietnam are attempts to “break the international isolation”, Nguyen Khac Giang, an analyst at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told The Associated Press news agency.

The US and its allies have expressed growing concerns over a possible arms arrangement in which North Korea provides Russia with badly needed munitions for its use in Ukraine, in exchange for economic assistance and technology transfers that could enhance the threat posed by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s nuclear weapons and missile programme.

Both countries deny accusations of weapons transfers, which would violate multiple United Nations Security Council sanctions.

Meanwhile, Russia is important to Vietnam for two reasons, Giang said: It is the biggest supplier of military equipment to the Southeast Asian nation, and Russian oil exploration technologies help maintain its sovereignty claims in the contested South China Sea.

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“Russia is signalling that it is not isolated in Asia despite the Ukraine war, and Vietnam is reinforcing a key traditional relationship even as it also diversifies ties with newer partners,” Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow with the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, told AP.

‘Friendly relations’

Vietnam and Russia have had diplomatic relations since 1950, and this year marks 30 years of a treaty establishing “friendly relations” between them.

Evidence of this long relationship and its influence can be seen in Vietnamese cities like the capital, where the many Soviet-style apartment blocks are now dwarfed by skyscrapers and a statue of Vladimir Lenin, the founder of the Soviet Union, stands in a park where children skateboard every evening.

Many of the Communist Party’s top leaders in Vietnam studied in Soviet universities, including party chief Trong.

Bilateral trade between Russia and Vietnam was valued at $3.6bn in 2023, compared with $171bn with China and $111bn with the US.

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Since the early 2000s, Russia accounted for about 80 percent of Vietnam’s arms imports. This has been declining over the years due to Vietnamese attempts to diversify its supplies. But to entirely wean itself off Russia will take time, said Giang.

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The fate of the latest cease-fire proposal hinges on Netanyahu and Hamas’ leader in Gaza

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The fate of the latest cease-fire proposal hinges on Netanyahu and Hamas’ leader in Gaza

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The fate of the proposed cease-fire deal for Gaza hinges in many ways on two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas’ leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar.

Each leader faces significant political and personal pressures that may be influencing their decision-making. And neither seems to be in a rush to make concessions to end the devastating eight-month-long war and free hostages taken by Hamas in its Oct. 7 attack.

Hamas has accepted the broad outline of the plan but requested “amendments.” Netanyahu has publicly disputed aspects of it, even though the U.S. has framed it as an Israeli plan.

Among the major sticking points is how to move from an initial temporary truce in the deal’s first phase to a permanent cease-fire that includes an end to the fighting and full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Here is a look at what may be driving the two leaders:

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Netanyahu is ‘buying time’

Throughout the war, the long-serving Israeli leader has been criticized for letting political considerations get in the way of his decision-making.

His government is buoyed by two ultranationalist parties that oppose cease-fire deals. Instead, they prefer continuous military pressure to try to defeat Hamas and free the hostages. They also talk about “encouraging” Palestinians to leave and reestablishing Israeli settlements, which were dismantled when Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 after a 38-year occupation.

Netanyahu himself has taken a tough line on the cease-fire, saying he will not end the war until Hamas’ military and governing capabilities are destroyed.

But with his hard-line partners pledging to topple the government if a cease-fire is struck, Netanyahu has been pushed even farther into the corner. His reliance on them to remain in power recently intensified after a centrist member of his war Cabinet, former military chief Benny Gantz, quit over frustrations with Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict.

Netanyahu has had to balance internal pressures against demands from the Biden administration, which is promoting the latest cease-fire proposal, and from families of hostages who believe only a deal can set their loved ones free. Tens of thousands of Israelis have joined mass protests in support of the hostage families.

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Netanyahu appears to be siding with his far-right governing partners for the moment, knowing they hold the key to his immediate political survival, although he says he has the country’s best interests in mind.

Their departure from the government could lead to new elections, which would open him up to a vote that could end his rule and likely the start of investigations into the failures of Oct. 7.

Netanyahu is also on trial for corruption, proceedings that have continued throughout the war yet have faded from the public consciousness. A cease-fire deal could refocus attention on the charges, which have dogged the Israeli leader for years and which he adamantly denies.

Netanyahu’s political fortunes appear to have improved over the course of the war. His public support plummeted in the aftermath of Hamas’ surprise attack on southern Israel. But over time it has gradually ticked up. While he would still face a tough path toward reelection, he isn’t a write-off.

“He runs the war as he wants, which means very slowly. He’s buying time,” said Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think thank, and chairman of the political science department at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University.

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Rahat said Netanyahu is also keen to push on with the war in the hopes that former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to office, possibly giving Israel more leeway in its fight against Hamas.

“I don’t see any cease-fire that really comes close to being something he adopts,” Rahat said. “But he’s not the only one that controls reality.”

Sinwar’s mission is to survive

Hamas’ leader in Gaza also appears to be in no rush to sign on to a deal.

The militant group’s exiled leadership is somewhat varied in its opinion on how to approach a cease-fire agreement. But Sinwar — the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks — has particular weight on the matter.

As a Hamas stalwart who spent decades in Israeli prisons, he has incentives to keep the war going.

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On a personal level, his life may be on the line. Israel vowed to kill him in response to the October assault, and Sinwar is believed to be hiding deep within Gaza’s underground tunnels surrounded by Israeli hostages.

If a cease-fire takes hold, Sinwar will be taking a great risk stepping out in public.

“I think he understands that he’s kind of a dead man walking. But it’s a matter of how long can he hold out?” said Khaled el-Gindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank.

But Sinwar is motivated by more than just his own personal fate. Steeped in Hamas’ radical ideology, Sinwar seeks Israel’s destruction and has made political gains by watching the war harm Israel’s international standing and boost support for the Palestinian cause.

Israel has faced surging international criticism — from its Western allies, from the international justice system, from protesters around the world — over its conduct during the war. That has deepened Israel’s global isolation, brought accusations that it is committing genocide against Palestinians and driven the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court to seek the arrests of Israeli leaders.

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Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote on the social platform X that Sinwar was also “counting on the sustained global outcry due to the horrendous killing of Gazans to force Israel to stop the war eventually,” on his own terms.

But Sinwar could face some difficult questions of his own when the war ends — not only over his personal role in the atrocities of Oct. 7 but also from the Palestinian public as the full extent of the wartime devastation and the years-long process of reconstruction sink in.

El-Gindy said Sinwar wasn’t deterred by the high price Palestinian civilians in Gaza are paying in the war, seeing it as an unavoidable sacrifice on the road toward liberation.

From Sinwar’s perspective, continuing to fight Israel’s powerful army, even if only through pockets of resistance, denies Israel a victory, el-Gindy said.

“Their whole mission is to survive,” he said. “If they survive, they win.”

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Associated Press writers Julia Frankel and Jack Jeffery contributed from Jerusalem.

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Follow AP’s coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war

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Nationwide blackout reported in Ecuador

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Nationwide blackout reported in Ecuador

A failure in an energy transmission line on Wednesday produced an unexpected blackout throughout Ecuador, the government said, days after announcing that there would be power outages in the country due to production problems.

Ecuador’s Minister of Energy Roberto Luque said in a message posted on X, formerly Twitter, that the failure was reported by the country’s National Electricity Operator and caused “a cascade disconnection,” leaving the nation without energy service.

He added that efforts are being made to solve the problem and repair faulty power lines as soon as possible.

3-DIGIT TEMPERATURES TRIGGER ROLLING BLACKOUTS IN MEXICO

In some sectors of the country the outage lasted 20 minutes, but media outlets and social media users reported that the problem continued in most cities.

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People walk outside of a metro station after a blackout affected the entire country, in Quito, Ecuador, Wednesday, June 19, 2024. In some sectors of the country the outage lasted 20 minutes, but media outlets and social media users reported that the problem continued in most cities. (AP Photo/Dolores Ochoa)

Emilia Cevallos, a waitress in a restaurant north of the capital, Quito, said the blackout was surprising.

“We thought it was only in this sector, but when we left we realized that while some stores had connected generators, the majority did not have electricity,” she said. “The traffic lights were not working either.”

The Quito municipality said on X that traffic agents were mobilized to coordinate the flow of traffic. Quito Metro, the company that operates the city’s subway system, said service was suspended as a result of the electrical failure.

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Since last year, Ecuador has faced an electricity generation crisis that has led to rationing throughout the country. In April, the government of President Daniel Noboa began to ration electricity in the country’s main cities as a drought linked to the El Niño weather pattern depleted reservoirs and limited output at hydroelectric plants that produce about 75% of the nation’s power.

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