World
Charismatic leader is gone but Wagner will survive in Africa, analysts say
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, just left Mali where he filmed a video pledging to make “Africa even more free” before he presumably perished in a plane crash in his home country.
His apparent death – it has yet to be officially confirmed – has sparked concerns for some client governments in Africa who rely on his unique services.
Patronage of Prigozhin’s private military force has been on the rise in recent years since some African governments started turning towards Russia as an alternative international partner in their fight against rising insecurity from various armed groups.
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra of the Central Africa Republic (CAR) was the first to turn to the feared militia in 2018, but the shifting sands of democratic governments that have seen a rise in military takeovers in the Sahel region opened the door widely for Wagner.
Across the Sahel and central Africa, armed groups have continued to expand rapidly, their rise coinciding with protests against former colonial power France, which still wields enormous influence across the region.
Prigozhin was the face of the group’s operations as he crisscrossed between Ukraine and Africa, pushing his stock-in-trade. His death, analysts say, will put a clog in the Wagner machine in Africa.
“Progozhin himself was this incredibly charismatic, larger-than-life figure who had the managerial and business abilities to somehow bring all of these disparate entities and people together,” said John Lechner, a security analyst and author of a forthcoming book on the Wagner Group.
Will expansion continue?
When Prigozhin staged an aborted mutiny in Russia in June, exactly two months before his death, clouds began to hover over the military-business empire Prigozhin built on the continent.
Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, at the time said the group’s operations would continue. But the fatal crash that claimed his life and his trusted lieutenant Dmitry Utkins has raised questions about what happens next.
“It does not very much change in places like Mali and CAR because there were already relationships and contracts. And the Russians said they would honour those contracts. The real question is what happens in the countries Wagner was trying to expand its presence, places like Burkina Faso and Niger. Will that expansion continue under the Russian government?” Cameron Hudson, a senior associate in the Centre for Strategic and International Studies’s Africa programme, said.
The brief mutiny in Russia back in June was the climax of a growing schism between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defence over the handling of the war in Ukraine. But African governments had also been caught in a delicate balancing act between the shadowy mercenary group and the Russian government.
The Malian coup-makers continue to refer to the armed group as “Russian instructors”, though CAR authorities are more forthcoming.
“CAR authorities have always been uncomfortable,” Charles Bouessel, senior analyst on CAR for International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
“They did not know who to praise for Wagner’s assistance. Sometimes, they are thanking the Russian authorities and sometimes, they are thanking Prigozhin. But what they want is that the Russian assistance continues, and they would be cautious in expressing their opinion [on Prigozhin’s death] intimately.”
‘Degree of deniability’
Officials have expressed that their commitment was to Russia and not to the mercenary group itself. Fidele Gouandjika, an adviser to CAR’s president, told the media that Prigozhin’s death would not change the relationship with Moscow.
Experts have said even though Prigozhin’s charm offensive will be notably absent, the Kremlin will ensure to maintain its influence on the continent.
“There are a lot of Russian institutions benefitting from Russia’s presence in Africa and they will want to see those relationships continue,” Lechner said.
However, the tussle between Wagner and the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, might recalibrate the diplomatic relationship between African governments and Russia.
“I think they are going to have a rethink of their approach … Countries that were considering a relationship with Wagner are all going to think if they want the same kind of relationship with Moscow. Because with the Wagner Group, there was some degree of deniability,” said Hudson.
‘Claustrophobic environment’
Niger is the latest country to eye Wagner. Since the presidential guard seized power, it has publicly fallen out with the West. The regional bloc ECOWAS has threatened to invade the country in order to restore President Mohamed Bazoum, who was removed in a coup on July 26.
With Prigozhin’s death, Wagner’s appeal to new countries seeking Wagner’s military assistance might dwindle, but analysts have said the militia can still make inroads into new territories.
“I think we should not be surprised if Wagner still shows up in Niger, even after Prigozhin’s death,” Lechner told Al Jazeera. “We are still in a claustrophobic environment where African governments looking to partner with outside countries on security have relatively few choices.”
Since 2020, there have been nine coups in Africa, according to a count by SBM, a geopolitical advisory firm in Nigeria. In this period, five of the 15 ECOWAS member nations are now under military rule.
This spate of coups, experts said, is a recipe for mercenary groups as military governments are pushing to consolidate their grip on power amid pressure from the West, and the decline of democratic governments will continue to invite such private military interventions.
“Illegitimate governments in Africa need security assistance for their hold on power and regime. That is the point of all of these: it is not the supply of armed mercenaries, it is the demand of armed mercenaries,” Hudson said.
World
US briefed Ukraine ahead of Putin's 'experimental Intermediate-range ballistic' attack
A U.S. official on Thursday confirmed to Fox News Digital that Ukrainian authorities were briefed ahead of Russia’s “experimental Intermediate-range ballistic missile” attack that this type of weapon may be used against Ukraine in order to help it prepare.
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the attack Thursday evening local time in an address to the nation and said it was in direct response to the U.S. and the U.K. jointly approving Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles to target Russia.
It remains unclear if there were any casualties in the attack on the city of Dnipro, which was originally reported as an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) strike, and which would have marked the first time such a weapon had been used during a time of war, sending panic across the globe.
1,000 DAYS OF WAR IN UKRAINE AS ZELENSKYY DOUBLES DOWN ON AERIAL OPTIONS WITH ATACMS, DRONES AND MISSILES
Putin and U.S. sources have since confirmed the strike was not an ICBM, but the Kremlin chief also claimed that the weapon used poses a significant challenge for Western nations.
“The missiles attack targets at a speed of MACH 10. That’s 2.5 miles per second,” Putin said according to a translation. “The world’s current air defense systems and the missile defense systems developed by the Americans in Europe do not intercept such missiles.”
Fox News Digital could not immediately verify whether the U.S. or its NATO allies are capable of defending against this latest missile, dubbed the Oreshnik.
But according to one U.S. official, Putin may be playing up his abilities in a move to intimidate the West and Ukraine.
“While we take all threats against Ukraine seriously, it is important to keep a few key facts in mind: Russia likely possesses only a handful of these experimental missiles,” the official told Fox News Digital. “Ukraine has withstood countless attacks from Russia, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads than this weapon.
“Let me be clear: Russia may be seeking to use this capability to try to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters, or generate attention in the information space, but it will not be a game-changer in this conflict,” the official added.
US EMBASSY IN KYIV CLOSED AS ‘POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT AIR ATTACK’ LOOMS
Following President Biden’s position reversal this week to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against the Russian homeland, Kyiv immediately levied strikes against a military arsenal in the Russian region of Bryansk, more than 70 miles from Ukraine’s border.
While Ukrainian troops are the ones to officially fire the sophisticated missiles, the weapons system still relies on U.S. satellites to hit its target — an issue Putin touched on in his unannounced speech Thursday.
“We are testing the Oreshnik missile systems in combat conditions in response to NATO countries’ aggressive actions against Russia. We will decide on the further deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles depending on the actions of the U.S. and its satellites,” he said.
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Putin claimed Russia will alert Ukrainian citizens of an impending attack like the strike he carried out on Thursday, though it remains unclear if he issued a warning to the Ukrainians living in Dnipro.
The Kremlin chief said the “defense industry” was targeted, though images released by the Ukrainian ministry of defense showed what appeared to be civilian infrastructure was also caught in the fray.
The Pentagon on Thursday confirmed that Russia informed the U.S. of the impending attack, which corresponds with information obtained by Fox News Digital, but it is unclear if Moscow clarified which Ukrainian city was the intended target.
A U.S. official told Fox News Digital that the U.S. is committed to helping Ukraine bolster its air defense systems and has done so already by supplying Ukraine with hundreds of additional Patriot and Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles.
World
South Korea says Russia sent North Korea missiles in exchange for troops
South Korea’s national security adviser says North plans to use the weapons to defend its airspace over the capital.
Russia has provided North Korea with anti-air missiles and air defence equipment in return for sending soldiers to support its war against Ukraine, according to a top South Korean official.
Asked what the North stood to gain from dispatching an estimated 10,000 troops to Russia, South Korea’s national security adviser Shin Won-sik said Moscow had given Pyongyang economic and military technology support.
“It is understood that North Korea has been provided with related equipment and anti-aircraft missiles to strengthen Pyongyang’s weak air defence system,” Shin told South Korean broadcaster SBS in an interview aired on Friday.
At a military exhibition in the capital, Pyongyang, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday called for developing and upgrading “ultra-modern” versions of weaponry, and pledged to keep advancing defence capabilities, state media reported.
Russia this month ratified a landmark mutual defence pact with North Korea as Ukrainian officials reported clashes with Pyongyang’s soldiers on the front lines.
The treaty was signed in Pyongyang in June during a state visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin. It obligates both states to provide military assistance “without delay” in the case of an attack on the other and to cooperate internationally to oppose Western sanctions.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told lawmakers this week that the troops deployed to Russia are believed to have been assigned to an airborne brigade and marine corps on the ground, with some of the soldiers having already entered combat, the Yonhap news agency reported.
The intelligence agency also said recently that North Korea had sent more than 13,000 containers of artillery, missiles and other conventional arms to Russia since August 2023 to replenish its dwindling weapons stockpiles.
Experts say Pyongyang could be using Ukraine as a means of realigning foreign policy.
By sending soldiers, North Korea is positioning itself within the Russian war economy as a supplier of weapons, military support and labour – potentially bypassing its traditional ally, neighbour and main trading partner, China, according to analysts.
Russia can also provide North Korea access to its vast natural resources, such as oil and gas, they say.
North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui recently visited Moscow and said her country would “stand firmly by our Russian comrades until victory day“.
North Korea said last month that any troop deployment to Russia would be “an act conforming with the regulations of international law”, but stopped short of confirming that it had sent soldiers.
The deployment has led to a shift in tone from Seoul, which had so far resisted calls to send weapons to Kyiv. However, President Yoon Suk-yeol indicated South Korea might change its longstanding policy of not providing arms to countries in conflict.
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