World
Can Pakistan form a new government on split election results?
Lahore, Pakistan – Two days after Pakistan’s general elections were held, a split mandate has emerged among the big three parties and there is little clarity about who will be able to form a government.
According to the latest tally by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), results from 253 National Assembly constituencies had been announced as of Saturday afternoon, out of a total of 266.
In a shock result, the largest number of seats have gone to independent candidates, of which at least 93 are backed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
In December last year, the party was stripped of its electoral symbol, the cricket bat, accused of violating laws about holding internal party elections, forcing it to field its candidates as independents.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), which entered the election as the expected frontrunner, has emerged with the second-largest mandate, with only 71 seats.
In third place is the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which managed to secure 54 seats, 11 more than it gained in the 2018 elections.
With such a split, the big question now rests on who will be able to form a government in Pakistan, a country of 241 million people which has suffered a turbulent two years with political instability, an economy on the verge of default and rising internal security challenges.
How is a majority determined?
With 266 seats up for grabs in the general elections, a simple majority of 134 is required for any one political party to be able to form a government.
Theoretically, however, members of parliament can form a government regardless of their party affiliation.
In the PTI’s case, their affiliated candidates can choose to avoid joining other parties and, instead, band together as independents. This would allow them to form a government if they collectively cross the required threshold of 134 seats.
However, doing this could result in a weak government, perpetually vulnerable to the whims of individuals who can choose to desert the governing coalition – something which is much harder when tied to a formally organised political party.
Another downside of remaining independent is that they would be unable to benefit from the reserved seat quota kept for women and minority candidates. In Pakistan’s lower house, 266 seats are directly elected, with an additional 60 seats reserved for women and 10 for minorities. Those seats are distributed among parties according to the ratio of seats they have won.
If PTI-backed candidates do decide to join other parties to form a government, they must announce their decision within three days of the official notification issued by the ECP after the completion of the vote counting, expected by late Saturday.
How have other parties reacted?
Leaders of the other two parties with the largest number of votes – the PMLN and the PPP – held a meeting late on Friday night in Lahore, after PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif declared his party “victors” in the parliamentary election.
Sharif’s claim that his PMLN had emerged as the party with the largest mandate is technically correct since the PTI-backed legislators are independent.
However, he also acknowledged that his party had failed in its objective to achieve a simple majority, and is therefore now reaching out to other parties to discuss forming a coalition to be able to form a government.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Abdul Basit, a research fellow at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, noted that provincial results show that the PMLN and independent candidates are neck and neck in Punjab’s provincial assembly, which is considered vital to form a government due to its large number of seats.
“What is emerging is that two main parties will have control of two provinces, with PTI getting Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and PPP getting Sindh. Whoever controls Punjab will always have a sword of Damocles hanging on their head, due to the divided result,” he added.
Why are there allegations of manipulation?
While the parties have commenced discussions to form a new government, the PTI has alleged widespread manipulation of the results to steal its majority. Where it could have been in a position to form a government on its own, it now requires coalition support to do so.
The party’s leader, Imran Khan, who has been imprisoned after being found guilty of corruption charges, has stated multiple times that the PTI will refuse to be part of a coalition government.
The election results came in unusually late despite a deadline set by the country’s poll body. Results started to emerge nearly 10 hours after the voting ended.
The PTI has alleged that results from many seats were tampered with to deny it a victory. Some candidates have already started legal action, demanding that the courts issue a stay order on the final results.
The international community, including the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union, have also demanded an investigation into claims made by the PTI.
What will PTI candidates do now?
The PTI, unwilling to enter into any formal alliance with another party, is considering joining the opposition benches “under the banner” of another party to gain access to the government. In the meantime, it will also pursue legal avenues to overturn seats it alleges have been stolen from its candidates.
“We’ll be merging with a small party so that we go into parliament under a symbol, and that means our candidates will not be independents any more. We will join a political party of the choice of our leader, Imran Khan,” Syed Zulfikar Bukhari, a senior PTI member, told Al Jazeera.
However, another prominent PTI member, Gohar Ali Khan, who is heading the party following Khan’s imprisonment, said in a news conference on Saturday that the party will continue to try to form a government since it won the most seats.
Speaking in Islamabad, he added that if complete results were not released by Saturday night, the PTI would hold peaceful protests on Sunday.
However, Bukhari, who is also an adviser to Khan, said the party is content to take up the position of “kingmaker” due to its number of seats and will do “whatever we want to”.
“We will not be aligning with any major party to set up a hodgepodge government in the centre. We have learned from our previous tenure that having a compromised government with allies means being blackmailed daily,” he said.
He further added that he does not believe a government formed via an alliance of other parties would last long.
“We intend to merge with a party for the sake of putting all our candidates under one banner, and we will be the strongest opposition this country has ever seen,” Bukhari said.
What will happen next?
Amid so much uncertainty, analysts believe that the split result means that no party will be able to form a government on its own – two out of the three big parties will be forced to form an alliance.
Basit of S Rajaratnam School told Al Jazeera he foresees a return of the ruling alliance that governed the country after April 2022, when Khan’s PTI government was removed following a vote of no confidence.
“From the fact that PPP and PMLN have already held a meeting and Sharif in his speech said he wants to reach out to other political parties, it appears we are going to see the emergence of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) version 2.0 from this result,” he said, referring to the ruling alliance that managed to remove Khan.
Political analyst Arifa Noor, however, said the PTI must focus on forming a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where it has swept the provincial assembly, winning 90 out of 115 seats.
“Forming government there should be their focus right now. They should be aware of the ground realities that the military establishment is not going to give PTI any space, so it would make sense to settle on their stronghold there,” she told Al Jazeera.
Basit, though, said the results have shown that the election did not deliver the required stability that the country “desperately” needs.
“The objective of these elections was to secure some stability in the country that is mired in crises, such as the political instability, weak economy or the security concerns. But with these results, only a messy set-up will come up, and stability will continue to remain elusive,” he said.
Noor added that, considering the sorts of allegations the PTI is making regarding results tampering, many of its legislators may now end up spending precious resources, time and energy on fighting out these battles in court.
“It requires time and effort, and while some are definitely going to pursue that, many other politicians seem to question if it is worth doing this. However, I do think there is going to be a legal battle ahead of the results,” she added.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — A federal judge disqualified acting U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli in Southern California from several cases after concluding Tuesday that the Trump appointee has stayed in the temporary job longer than allowed by law.
U.S. District Judge J. Michael Seabright disqualified Essayli from supervising the criminal prosecutions in three cases, siding with defense lawyers. Essayli has been unlawfully serving as acting U.S. attorney for the Central District of California since July 29, Seabright wrote. But he may continue to serve as a First Assistant United States Attorney, Seabright ruled, effectively leaving him as the office’s top prosecutor.
“Nothing is changing,” Essayli wrote in a social media post Tuesday evening, saying he looked forward to advancing President Donald Trump’s agenda.
The decision represents another setback to the Trump administration’s effort to extend handpicked acting U.S. attorneys beyond the 120-day limit set by federal law. A judge ruled in September that acting U.S. attorney of Nevada, Sigal Chattah, was serving in her position illegally. Another judge disqualified acting U.S. attorney in New Jersey, Alina Habba, in August.
Essayli is a former federal prosecutor turned Republican California Assemblymember, where he took up conservative causes and criticized the state’s COVID-19 restrictions. He has been outspoken against California policies to protect immigrants living in the country illegally, and he has aggressively prosecuted people who protest Trump’s ramped up immigration enforcement across Southern California.
Under federal law, if a permanent U.S. attorney is not nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate within 120 days, judges of the federal district court can appoint an interim until the vacancy is filled. Essayli has not been confirmed by the U.S. Senate —something that generally requires a degree of bipartisan support. California Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla have criticized Essayli’s appointment.
Essayli was appointed as interim U.S. attorney in March, several months after former President Joe Biden’s appointee to the job resigned. Just shy of the 120-day mark, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi appointed him as First Assistant U.S. Attorney and said he would have the authority to serve as acting U.S. attorney upon a vacancy in the role. He then resigned as interim U.S. attorney.
The government has argued that he can do so under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998, which Congress passed specifically to regulate the temporary filling of executive branch vacancies that require presidential appointment and Senate confirmation.
Seabright, however, said that provision of the law only applies if the previous U.S. Attorney dies, resigns, or is otherwise incapacitated.
The lawsuit seeking to disqualify Essayli was brought by three men facing federal firearms charges. They sought to have their indictments dismissed. Seabright ruled the indictments can proceed.
In Nevada, the same judge that disqualified Chattah ruled last week that he was pausing his earlier ruling while a federal appellate court weighed an appeal from the U.S. Department of Justice, allowing her to remain temporarily involved in the cases being prosecuted by her office. An appellate court heard arguments on Monday regarding Habba’s appointment as well, questioning government lawyers on their maneuvers to keep Habba in place.
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U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday met with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in the city of Gyeongju – the final stop on his Asia tour aimed at securing new investment deals.
“The Republic of Korea is a cherished American friend and a close ally. And as we can see in this beautiful city, it’s truly one of the most remarkable nations anywhere on earth,” Trump said ahead of the meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit, adding that South Korea’s president “is a terrific person.”
During their bilateral meeting, Lee asked Trump to consider allowing South Korea to access fuel for conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines – a long-standing restriction under a U.S. nonproliferation deal.
Trump’s previous stops during his trip included visits to Malaysia and Japan.
After his visit to Japan yielded roughly $490 billion in investment commitments, Trump said a trade deal with South Korea has proven more challenging as he seeks an additional $350 billion in U.S. investments. Trump predicted total new investment could reach upwards of $22 trillion in investments by the end of his first year back in the White House.
TRUMP’S FOCUS TURNS TO JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA AS ASIA TRIP CONTINUES
U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung attend a high honor ceremony at the Gyeongju National Museum in Gyoeongju, South Korea. (AP)
“I figure that we’ll probably be at 20 or 21, maybe even $22 trillion of investments coming into our country by the end of the first year of my second term,” the president said. “And we had a tremendously successful first term. We had the strongest economy in history for our country, the strongest we ever had. But this is, I think, blowing it away. We have a great policy. We have some very good things happening.”
“Around the world, we’re signing one trade deal after another to balance our relationships on the basis of reciprocity,” Trump added. “I’ve signed groundbreaking agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, Japan, and our deal with the Republic of Korea will be finalized very soon. These agreements will be incredible victories for all of us, because everyone is better off when we have stable partnerships not plagued by chronic problems and imbalances.”
Speaking to business executives at the event, Trump described an “economic revolution” underway in the United States. The president urged the executives not to listen to “small minds with no vision,” pledging to “build, trade, prosper and thrive together.”
TRUMP ANNOUNCES MEETING WITH XI JINPING AT SOUTH KOREA APEC SUMMIT SCHEDULED FOR NEXT MONTH
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung as they attend a high honor ceremony at the Gyeongju National Museum in Gyoeongju, South Korea. (AP)
Trump later received South Korea’s Grand Order of Mugunghwa – the nation’s highest honor – along with a replica of a royal crown from the ancient Silla Kingdom, symbolizing Seoul’s recognition of his prior diplomatic efforts.
Trump’s visit coincided with new tensions on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea said it fired sea-to-surface cruise missiles off its western coast.
“He’s been launching missiles for decades, right?” Trump said of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Trump reiterated his willingness to meet with the North’s leader, saying, “We had a really good understanding of each other.”
U.S. President Donald Trump waves after speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. (AP)
In a separate speech, South Korea’s leader warned against rising protectionism, urging global cooperation on trade – a message that contrasted with Trump’s America First pitch.
Trump also previewed his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“You know that President Xi of China is coming here tomorrow, and we’re going to be, I hope, making a deal,” Trump said. “I think we’re going to have a deal. I think it’ll be a good deal for both. And that’s really a great result.”
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“That’s better than fighting and having all sorts of problems. And, you know, no reason for it,” he added.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he will discuss new US sanctions on Russian oil with President Trump in Washington next week.
The US slapped sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, last week, with the former also being blacklisted by the EU.
“We are discussing how to build a sustainable system for my country’s economy, because Hungary is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. Without them, energy prices will skyrocket, causing shortages in our supplies,” Orbán told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica during a visit to Rome.
When asked if Trump went too far and had made a mistake by targeting Russia’s energy sector, Orbán said that he had gone too far, adding that Hungary will find a “way out” from the sanctions.
Landlocked Hungary imports most of its fossil fuels from Russia, despite repeated calls from the United States and the European Union to end its dependency on energy from Moscow, an issue which has become a point of tension.
The impact of US sanctions
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said the government is examining the possible impact of the sanctions, which the US says will stay in place until Russian President Vladimir Putin shows a genuine willingness to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.
“As for the American sanctions, since their entry into force is still some way off, these measures have not yet caused any loss or difficulties in terms of our energy imports from Russia,” Szijjártó said at a press conference in Budapest on Monday.
Separately, the European Commission said the US sanctions do not pose any immediate danger for the security of supplies into Europe, as member states are required to hold oil reserves for 90 days.
“Last week’s decision obviously might have an impact and we want to make sure that our member states are prepared, that they have a plan and we are here to support them with this,” Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, European Commission spokesperson, told journalists.
Pressure mounts on Slovakia and Hungary
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has made several attempts to cut its energy dependency on Russia.
In 2022, the bloc banned the purchase of Russian pipeline oil, with Hungary and Slovakia receiving exemptions. However, while there is no ban on Russian pipeline gas, the EU plans to phase out all fuel imports by the end of 2027 in the bloc.
Max Whitaker, US Ambassador to NATO, talking to Fox News on Sunday, criticised Hungary for not doing enough to end dependency.
Last week the US opted to sanction the Russian energy sector for the first time since the war in Ukraine started.
“Hungary, unlike many of its neighbours, has not made any plans and has not taken any active steps. We are going to work with their neighbours, like Croatia and other countries, that can help them to wind them off. And that pipeline will most likely shut off in the coming years,” Whitaker said, referring to the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Slovakia will have to present a plan to decouple from Russian energy too, he added.
According to the Centre for the Study of Democracy, Hungary further increased its energy dependency since the start of the full-scale invasion.
In 2022, 61% of Hungary’s crude oil needs were imported from Russia. This year so far, it has risen to 92%, while Slovakia depends almost entirely on Russia for oil imports.
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