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Can Pakistan form a new government on split election results?

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Can Pakistan form a new government on split election results?

Lahore, Pakistan – Two days after Pakistan’s general elections were held, a split mandate has emerged among the big three parties and there is little clarity about who will be able to form a government.

According to the latest tally by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), results from 253 National Assembly constituencies had been announced as of Saturday afternoon, out of a total of 266.

In a shock result, the largest number of seats have gone to independent candidates, of which at least 93 are backed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

In December last year, the party was stripped of its electoral symbol, the cricket bat, accused of violating laws about holding internal party elections, forcing it to field its candidates as independents.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), which entered the election as the expected frontrunner, has emerged with the second-largest mandate, with only 71 seats. 

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In third place is the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which managed to secure 54 seats, 11 more than it gained in the 2018 elections.

With such a split, the big question now rests on who will be able to form a government in Pakistan, a country of 241 million people which has suffered a turbulent two years with political instability, an economy on the verge of default and rising internal security challenges.

The Parliament building in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Wednesday, February 7, 2024, one day before polling began [Asad Zaidi/Bloomberg via Getty Images]

How is a majority determined?

With 266 seats up for grabs in the general elections, a simple majority of 134 is required for any one political party to be able to form a government.

Theoretically, however, members of parliament can form a government regardless of their party affiliation.

In the PTI’s case, their affiliated candidates can choose to avoid joining other parties and, instead, band together as independents. This would allow them to form a government if they collectively cross the required threshold of 134 seats.

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However, doing this could result in a weak government, perpetually vulnerable to the whims of individuals who can choose to desert the governing coalition – something which is much harder when tied to a formally organised political party.

Another downside of remaining independent is that they would be unable to benefit from the reserved seat quota kept for women and minority candidates. In Pakistan’s lower house, 266 seats are directly elected, with an additional 60 seats reserved for women and 10 for minorities. Those seats are distributed among parties according to the ratio of seats they have won.

If PTI-backed candidates do decide to join other parties to form a government, they must announce their decision within three days of the official notification issued by the ECP after the completion of the vote counting, expected by late Saturday.

How have other parties reacted?

Leaders of the other two parties with the largest number of votes – the PMLN and the PPP – held a meeting late on Friday night in Lahore, after PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif declared his party “victors” in the parliamentary election.

Sharif’s claim that his PMLN had emerged as the party with the largest mandate is technically correct since the PTI-backed legislators are independent.

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However, he also acknowledged that his party had failed in its objective to achieve a simple majority, and is therefore now reaching out to other parties to discuss forming a coalition to be able to form a government.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Abdul Basit, a research fellow at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, noted that provincial results show that the PMLN and independent candidates are neck and neck in Punjab’s provincial assembly, which is considered vital to form a government due to its large number of seats.

“What is emerging is that two main parties will have control of two provinces, with PTI getting Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and PPP getting Sindh. Whoever controls Punjab will always have a sword of Damocles hanging on their head, due to the divided result,” he added.

Why are there allegations of manipulation?

While the parties have commenced discussions to form a new government, the PTI has alleged widespread manipulation of the results to steal its majority. Where it could have been in a position to form a government on its own, it now requires coalition support to do so.

The party’s leader, Imran Khan, who has been imprisoned after being found guilty of corruption charges, has stated multiple times that the PTI will refuse to be part of a coalition government.

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The election results came in unusually late despite a deadline set by the country’s poll body. Results started to emerge nearly 10 hours after the voting ended.

The PTI has alleged that results from many seats were tampered with to deny it a victory. Some candidates have already started legal action, demanding that the courts issue a stay order on the final results.

The international community, including the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union, have also demanded an investigation into claims made by the PTI.

What will PTI candidates do now?

The PTI, unwilling to enter into any formal alliance with another party, is considering joining the opposition benches “under the banner” of another party to gain access to the government. In the meantime, it will also pursue legal avenues to overturn seats it alleges have been stolen from its candidates.

“We’ll be merging with a small party so that we go into parliament under a symbol, and that means our candidates will not be independents any more. We will join a political party of the choice of our leader, Imran Khan,” Syed Zulfikar Bukhari, a senior PTI member, told Al Jazeera.

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However, another prominent PTI member, Gohar Ali Khan, who is heading the party following Khan’s imprisonment, said in a news conference on Saturday that the party will continue to try to form a government since it won the most seats.

Pakistan voting
Election officials begin counting votes at a polling station in Peshawar, Pakistan, on February 08, 2024 [Hussain Ali/Anadolu via Getty Images]

Speaking in Islamabad, he added that if complete results were not released by Saturday night, the PTI would hold peaceful protests on Sunday.

However, Bukhari, who is also an adviser to Khan, said the party is content to take up the position of “kingmaker” due to its number of seats and will do “whatever we want to”.

“We will not be aligning with any major party to set up a hodgepodge government in the centre. We have learned from our previous tenure that having a compromised government with allies means being blackmailed daily,” he said.

He further added that he does not believe a government formed via an alliance of other parties would last long.

“We intend to merge with a party for the sake of putting all our candidates under one banner, and we will be the strongest opposition this country has ever seen,” Bukhari said.

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What will happen next?

Amid so much uncertainty, analysts believe that the split result means that no party will be able to form a government on its own – two out of the three big parties will be forced to form an alliance.

Basit of S Rajaratnam School told Al Jazeera he foresees a return of the ruling alliance that governed the country after April 2022, when Khan’s PTI government was removed following a vote of no confidence.

“From the fact that PPP and PMLN have already held a meeting and Sharif in his speech said he wants to reach out to other political parties, it appears we are going to see the emergence of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) version 2.0 from this result,” he said, referring to the ruling alliance that managed to remove Khan.

Khan supporters
Supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) outside the Lahore residence of former Prime Minister Imran Khan  in Lahore, Pakistan, on February 22, 2023 [Raja Imran/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images]

Political analyst Arifa Noor, however, said the PTI must focus on forming a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where it has swept the provincial assembly, winning 90 out of 115 seats.

“Forming government there should be their focus right now. They should be aware of the ground realities that the military establishment is not going to give PTI any space, so it would make sense to settle on their stronghold there,” she told Al Jazeera.

Basit, though, said the results have shown that the election did not deliver the required stability that the country “desperately” needs.

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“The objective of these elections was to secure some stability in the country that is mired in crises, such as the political instability, weak economy or the security concerns. But with these results, only a messy set-up will come up, and stability will continue to remain elusive,” he said.

Noor added that, considering the sorts of allegations the PTI is making regarding results tampering, many of its legislators may now end up spending precious resources, time and energy on fighting out these battles in court.

“It requires time and effort, and while some are definitely going to pursue that, many other politicians seem to question if it is worth doing this. However, I do think there is going to be a legal battle ahead of the results,” she added.

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Kendrick Lamar’s Beef With Drake and J. Cole, Explained

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Kendrick Lamar’s Beef With Drake and J. Cole, Explained

Things weren’t always this tense between Kendrick Lamar and Drake. On March 25, the former shook the foundation with his uncredited verse on Metro Boomin and Future’s “Like That,” a cut included on the pair’s freshly released collaborative album “We Don’t Trust You.”

The internet immediately lit up: Lamar’s particularly fiery verse put his issues with other rappers in uncharacteristically plain terms, very clearly taking shots at Drake and J. Cole in response to their song “First Person Shooter,” included on last year’s “For All the Dogs.” On the track, Cole lumped Lamar with himself and Drake as the “big three”: “Love when they argue the hardest MC / Is it K. Dot? Is it Aubrey? Or me? / We the big three, like we started a league.”

In a tightly wound, entendre-replete, machine gun verse, Lamar fired back by refuting the designation and setting himself apart from his peers and former collaborators. “Yeah get up with me, fuck sneak dissing / ‘First Person Shooter,’ I hope they came with three switches,” he raps. “Motherfuck the big three, n—a, it’s just big me.” To add insult to injury, he referenced the contentious relationship between Michael Jackson and Prince, comparing himself to the latter and stating that his legacy will outlast their influence. “Your best work is a light pack / N—a, Prince outlived Mike Jack / N—a, bum, ‘fore all your dogs get buried / That’s a K with all these nines, he gon’ see ‘Pet Sematary.’”

It makes sense that Lamar would use his appearance on Metro’s new record as a platform to air his grievances — after all, Drake and Metro have recently had their own public reckoning. The two have worked together in the past — Metro helmed the majority of the tracks on Drake and Future’s 2015 album “What a Time to Be Alive” — but something shifted between the two in the years that followed.

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Here’s where the speculation comes in. Some surmise that the lack of a promised sequel to “What a Time” led to bad blood; Drake instead released “Her Loss” in 2022, which did include a Metro production credit on “More M’s.” But others trace the first true indicator of tension to Metro’s song “Trance,” included on the producer’s 2022 album “Heroes & Villains.” Drake initially had a verse on the track, which features Travis Scott and Young Thug, but Metro removed it prior to album release. The version with Drake inevitably leaked; some think Drake himself released it as retaliation. Then, this past December, Metro tweeted and deleted that “‘Her Loss’ still keeps winning rap album of the year over [‘Heroes & Villains’]. Proof that award shows are just politics and not for me.” Drake went on a livestream soon after, shouting out the “tweet-and-deleters” and saying that “you guys make me sick to my stomach.” Metro unfollowed Drake on Instagram, and the beef simmered.

So it makes sense, then, that Lamar would take this opportunity with “Like That” as a podium for his own grievances with Drake and J. Cole. But it caught listeners off-guard that Lamar would so decisively lay out his issues with the pair. The three came up around the same time, and have consistently been considered foundational for that generation of MCs. They’ve all collaborated, and even went on tour together; Drake gave Lamar his own interlude on his 2011 album “Take Care,” and Cole and Lamar once teased a collaborative project in addition to releasing numerous collabs.

But the three have also long considered rap a competitive sport, and have been vying for the G.O.A.T. title for years. In 2013, Lamar gave a similarly show-stealing verse on Big Sean’s “Control,” also featuring Jay Electronica, where he ran through a laundry list of his peers’ names—Drake and J. Cole included—stating that “I got love for you all but I’m tryna murder you n—s” and asking “What is competition? I’m tryna raise the bar high.” In the years that followed, the subliminals flew, on songs like Lamar’s “King Kunta” and Drake’s “The Language” (hint: if you’re trying to find sneak disses in their discographies, there’s plenty to work with).

It was only a matter of time until their issues spilled into the open with such candor. So where does Future come into all of this? Drake and Future have been very frequent collaborators in the past. Beyond “What a Time,” the two have a huge pile of duets between them, so it came as a bit of a surprise that he’d co-sign Lamar’s verse by including it on “Like That.”

But once that track lit up the internet, fans started looking elsewhere on “We Don’t Trust You” for potential jabs at Drake. One person matched song titles as puns on Drake song titles. Some pointed to Future’s second verse on the album’s intro as a swipe: “You a n—a number one fan, dog / Sneak dissin’, I don’t understand, dog / Pillowtalkin’, actin’ like a fed, dog / I don’t need another fake friend, dog / Can’t be ’bout a ho, ’cause we sharin’, dog / In you feelings, n—a, why you playin’, dog.”

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A bit of unpacking here. On Drake’s “What Would Pluto Do?,” included on “For All the Dogs,” he references Future’s nickname Pluto, stating, “Last time I saw her, she was fuckin’ with my n—a / So the question is, the question is, what would Pluto do? He’d f—k the ho, so I did it.” Not to mention that “in you feelings” could be a reference to Drake’s “In My Feelings.”

While it’s difficult to pinpoint the source of their issues, social media connected the dots to suggest that Drake and Future were beefing over a woman. One user on X (formerly Twitter) suggested that a song on “We Don’t Trust You” referenced the woman in question; Metro came in to shut down the theory. “Y’all n—s stop making stuff up for engagement and enjoy the music,” he wrote.

Regardless, Lamar’s verse on “Like That” has officially entered the pantheon of iconic diss tracks, and clearly set off a chain reaction that’s still going strong months later. Rap fans patiently waited for a response, and with the surprise release of his new album “Might Delete Later” on April 5, J. Cole was the first to fire back at Lamar on its closing song “7 Minute Drill.” On it, he dismissed much of Lamar’s catalog and claimed he “fell off like ‘The Simpsons.’”

“The rap beef ain’t realer than the shit I seen in Cumberland / He averagin’ one hard verse like every thirty months or somethin’,” he said, referring to the five-part “The Heart” series that Lamar has rolled out over the course of his career. “If he wasn’t dissin’, then we wouldn’t be discussin’ him / Lord, don’t make me have to smoke this n—a ’cause I fuck with him / But push come to shove, on this mic, I will humble him.”

Drake, meanwhile, has taken a harder approach. He first addressed Lamar’s verse during a brief diatribe during one of his shows. “A lot of people asking me how I’m feeling. The way I’m feeling is the same way I want you to walk out of here feeling tonight about your fucking self,” he told the crowd. “Because you know how I’m feeling? I got my head up high, my back straight, I’m 10 fucking toes down, and feeling like anywhere else I go, and I know no matter what, there’s not a n—a on this Earth that can ever fuck with me in my life.”

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But then, Drake released his first diss track “Push Ups” after an early version of the track leaked to social media on April 13. A high-quality version of the song came later that day, and the rapper officially released it to streaming services on April 19. On the track, he came for Lamar, rapping, “How the fuck you big steppin’ with a size-seven men’s on?” referencing the title of Lamar’s 2022 album “Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers.”

Later on April 19, Drake released a follow-up diss entitled “Taylor Made Freestyle” to his social media profiles, featuring AI verses from Tupac Shakur and Snoop Dogg. On the song, he stated, “World is watching this chess game, but oh you out of moves Dot / You know that the OG never fucking doubted you / But right now it seem like you posted up without a clue / Or what the fuck you ’bout to do.” Soon after, Drake removed the song from social media after Shakur’s estate threatened to sue him.

Lamar took a minute to let the beef simmer, then fired back on “Euphoria,” which he officially dropped on April 30. “You not a rap artist, you a scam artist with the hopes of being accepted,” he rapped. “Tommy Hilfiger stood out, but Fubu had nеver been your collection / Know you a master manipulator, and habitual liar, too / But don’t tell no lie ’bout me, and I won’t tell truths ’bout you.”

Then, in a surprise move, Lamar hit back with a second diss track in a week with “6:16 in LA,” a play on Drake’s series of similarly titled songs. The tune, which he uploaded to Instagram in the early hours on May 3, came for Drake and his OVO crew and featured production from Jack Antonoff. The producer’s inclusion was considered a chess move from Lamar, whom Drake accused of keeping silent to avoid Taylor Swift’s new album from taking the spotlight. Antonoff produced on that album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” which shattered records in the wake of its release.

Just hours after “6:16 in LA” hit social media, Drake responded on Friday evening (May 3) with “Family Matters,” going after Lamar and flaming him for bringing up his son Adonis. Lamar fired back just moments after with “Meet the Grahams,” where he raps directly to Drake’s family members and suggests that he has a secret daughter. And as if that wasn’t enough, Lamar followed the next day with “Not Like Us,” which accused his foe of pursuing underage girls.

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Will the saga continue? It’s tough to say. This has been going on for months, and Drake and Lamar aren’t slowing down the beef anytime soon. More to come, perhaps, as the tensions rise.

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Hamas kingpin holed up deep below Gaza, surrounded by hostages used as human shields, says expert

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Hamas kingpin holed up deep below Gaza, surrounded by hostages used as human shields, says expert

JERUSALEM – The terrorist mastermind behind Hamas’ massacre of nearly 1,200 people, including over 30 Americans, is believed to be using hostages as human shields to hold off Israeli soldiers seeking to capture him in a tunnel deep below Gaza.

The shocking information about Hamas kingpin Yahya Sinwar was revealed by Gen. Jack Keane, FOX News Channel senior strategic analyst and former U.S. army vice chief of staff, in an interview with Sky News Australia on Thursday.

Hamas terrorist leader Yahya Sinwar speaks to a crowd. (Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

“My sources tell me that Sinwar, who is the number one leader in Gaza of the Hamas organization, has 15-20 hostages protecting him and his family,” Keane said. “That’s why they have these hostages, to guarantee their survival. Israel is absolutely right in putting military pressure on them to force the release of the hostages.”

Keane’s revelation coincides with statements by Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, in an interview with Israeli news outlet Channel 12 on Saturday that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) nearly killed Sinwar. Hanegbi said Sinwar “is living on borrowed time,” and that “he won’t emerge alive from this confrontation.” 

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Israel is offering a $400,000 bounty for the capture of Sinwar. In December, Israel dropped leaflets on Gaza offering rewards for information about the location of Hamas’ top leadership.

Hanegbi said the IDF was close to killing Sinwar over the last few months. “It is apparently hard for [Sinwar] to make a decision [regarding a hostage agreement] that is likely to mean the end of Hamas rule,” noted Hanegbi, who added that “because the minute he gives up on the highly significant card for his survival, our hostages, it’s not easy for him, and that’s why things are delayed.”

UN, HUMAN RIGHTS, MEDIA GROUPS RELY ON HAMAS DEATH TOLL IN ‘SYSTEMATIC DECEPTION’: EXPERT

Sinwar walking on stage while greeting a crowd.

Terrorist leader Yahya Sinwar waves during a rally. (Rizek Abdeljawad/Xinhua via Getty Images)

The citizenship composition of the hostages being used by Sinwar – in violation of international humanitarian law – is unclear. Five Americans are believed to be among the more than 100 hostages held by Hamas. 

Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and as part of its slaughter of roughly 1,200 people, the terrorist group took over 200 hostages into Gaza. A November hostage deal secured the freedom of more than 100 hostages, mostly women and children, in exchange for Israel’s release of dozens of Palestinian terrorists.

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Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced a military operation into Rafah – the last major city controlled by Hamas and where Sinwar is believed be hiding with his hostages. Israel’s security objective is also to destroy the tunnels between Egypt and Rafah that enable Hamas to smuggle in weapons.

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION SILENT OVER HAMAS’ USE OF GAZA HOSPITAL AS TERROR HQ

Sinwar speaking at a rally.

Israel is offering a $400,000 bounty for the capture of Yahya Sinwar. (Mohammed Talatene/picture alliance via Getty Images)

The Biden administration has thus far opposed Israel’s war plan to defeat Hamas in Rafah because of concerns of civilian deaths.

Hamas retains four battalions in Rafah coupled with thousands of terrorist fighters. While the Rafah operation looms, complex negotiations are unfolding in Cairo and may slow the pace of Israel’s efforts to root out Hamas terrorists in the city populated with more than a million Palestinians.

David Wurmser, a former senior adviser for nonproliferation and Middle East strategy for former Vice President Dick Cheney, said about Sinwar’s use of hostages that “the holding of hostages – since he values their lives nil – is nothing more than, say, a soldier taking cover behind a tree or rock when under heavy fire. It is not cowardice, but an intelligent and primordial impulse. He has no more empathy for a hostage than a soldier does for the rock. Indeed, the same with the ‘innocent’ Palestinian civilians.”

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UN, HUMAN RIGHTS, MEDIA GROUPS RELY ON HAMAS DEATH TOLL IN ‘SYSTEMATIC DECEPTION’: EXPERT

Sinwar waving at a group of supporters at a rally.

An Israeli official said the IDF was close to killing Sinwar over the last few months. (Mustafa Hassona/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

“All is part of a very sober and rational strategy. And given the amount he has taken control of Israeli and U.S. policy with hostages and human shields, it’s a very rational strategy,” Wurmser added. “We consider it cruel – but that requires empathy, which he is devoid of, and immoral, but that implies that advancing Islam at all costs is the ultimate morality and the filter for determining whether an action is moral or not.”

Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute who was a former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, where he remains a columnist, told Fox News Digital that Sinwar is crafty and ruthless.

“Sinwar has played Israel very smartly since Oct. 7, sometimes seeming as if he understands Israel better than Israel understands itself. He has used the hostages effectively to achieve his goals and has managed to keep himself always a step ahead of the IDF in its efforts to capture or kill him.”

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Gaza ceasefire talks at crucial stage as Hamas delegation leaves Cairo

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Gaza ceasefire talks at crucial stage as Hamas delegation leaves Cairo

Negotiations over a potential ceasefire in the Gaza war have entered a crucial stage as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to Israel’s assault on the Palestinian territory in exchange for the release of captives and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flatly ruled out such an outcome.

On Sunday, the two sides blamed each other for the impasse. In their second day of talks with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, Hamas negotiators maintained their stance that any ceasefire agreement must include an end to the war, Palestinian officials said.

Israeli officials did not travel to Cairo to take part in indirect diplomacy, but on Sunday, Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s aim since the start of the war nearly seven months ago: to disarm and dismantle Hamas.

He said Israel was willing to pause fighting in Gaza in order to secure the release of hostages still being held by Hamas, believed to number more than 100.

“But while Israel has shown willingness, Hamas remains entrenched in its extreme positions, first among them the demand to remove all our forces from the Gaza Strip, end the war, and leave Hamas in power,” Netanyahu said.

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“Israel cannot accept that,” he said.

In a statement released shortly after Netanyahu’s, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh blamed Netanyahu for “the continuation of the aggression and the expansion of the circle of conflict, and sabotaging the efforts made through the mediators and various parties”.

A Hamas delegation at the Gaza truce negotiations in Cairo had departed and will return for more talks on Tuesday, Egyptian state-linked media said.

“The Hamas delegation has left Cairo this evening [Sunday] for Doha in order to conduct consultations, and will return Tuesday to conclude the negotiations” towards a truce in the war with Israel, said Al-Qahera News, a site linked to Egyptian intelligence services, citing an unidentified “informed source”.

Reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, Al Jazeera’s Bernard Smith said that Israel has been insisting that any agreement would only include a pause in fighting rather than a permanent end to hostilities.

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“From the Israelis, there’s an insistence that the most Hamas is going to get is this initial 40-day truce in exchange for 33 Israeli captives and the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners,” he said.

“From Hamas, there’s an insistence that any agreement with Israel should lead to an end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza,” Smith added.

Meanwhile, CIA Director William Burns – who had been in Cairo – is also travelling to Doha to hold an emergency meeting with Qatar’s prime minister, an official briefed on the talks said late on Sunday.

“Burns is on his way to Doha for an emergency meeting with the Qatari prime minister aimed at exerting maximum pressure on Israel and Hamas to continue negotiating,” a source told Reuters.

Washington has pressed Hamas to accept the latest Israeli proposal.

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Rafah assault

The talks come amid signs that Israel is preparing for an assault on Rafah in southern Gaza, where more than a million displaced Palestinians have taken refuge.

Israel believes thousands of Hamas fighters are holed up in the city, along with potentially dozens of captives.

Such an incursion would put hundreds of thousands of lives at risk and be a huge blow to the aid operations of the entire enclave, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on Friday.

Residents and health officials in Gaza said Israeli planes and tanks continued to pound areas across the Palestinian enclave overnight, killing and wounding several people.

Hamas’s armed wing claimed responsibility for an attack on Sunday near the Karem Abu Salem crossing between Israel and Gaza, the main entry point for humanitarian aid access into Gaza. Israel’s military said the crossing – known to Israelis as Kerem Shalom – was closed in the wake of the rocket attack.

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At least 34,683 people, mostly women and children, have been killed and 78,018 wounded in Israel’s war on Gaza since October, according to Palestinian authorities.

Israel launched the assault after Hamas led an attack on southern Israel on October 7, killing at least 1,139 people, according to an Al Jazeera tally based on Israeli statistics.

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