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Can Pakistan form a new government on split election results?
Lahore, Pakistan – Two days after Pakistan’s general elections were held, a split mandate has emerged among the big three parties and there is little clarity about who will be able to form a government.
According to the latest tally by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), results from 253 National Assembly constituencies had been announced as of Saturday afternoon, out of a total of 266.
In a shock result, the largest number of seats have gone to independent candidates, of which at least 93 are backed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
In December last year, the party was stripped of its electoral symbol, the cricket bat, accused of violating laws about holding internal party elections, forcing it to field its candidates as independents.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), which entered the election as the expected frontrunner, has emerged with the second-largest mandate, with only 71 seats.
In third place is the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which managed to secure 54 seats, 11 more than it gained in the 2018 elections.
With such a split, the big question now rests on who will be able to form a government in Pakistan, a country of 241 million people which has suffered a turbulent two years with political instability, an economy on the verge of default and rising internal security challenges.
How is a majority determined?
With 266 seats up for grabs in the general elections, a simple majority of 134 is required for any one political party to be able to form a government.
Theoretically, however, members of parliament can form a government regardless of their party affiliation.
In the PTI’s case, their affiliated candidates can choose to avoid joining other parties and, instead, band together as independents. This would allow them to form a government if they collectively cross the required threshold of 134 seats.
However, doing this could result in a weak government, perpetually vulnerable to the whims of individuals who can choose to desert the governing coalition – something which is much harder when tied to a formally organised political party.
Another downside of remaining independent is that they would be unable to benefit from the reserved seat quota kept for women and minority candidates. In Pakistan’s lower house, 266 seats are directly elected, with an additional 60 seats reserved for women and 10 for minorities. Those seats are distributed among parties according to the ratio of seats they have won.
If PTI-backed candidates do decide to join other parties to form a government, they must announce their decision within three days of the official notification issued by the ECP after the completion of the vote counting, expected by late Saturday.
How have other parties reacted?
Leaders of the other two parties with the largest number of votes – the PMLN and the PPP – held a meeting late on Friday night in Lahore, after PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif declared his party “victors” in the parliamentary election.
Sharif’s claim that his PMLN had emerged as the party with the largest mandate is technically correct since the PTI-backed legislators are independent.
However, he also acknowledged that his party had failed in its objective to achieve a simple majority, and is therefore now reaching out to other parties to discuss forming a coalition to be able to form a government.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Abdul Basit, a research fellow at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, noted that provincial results show that the PMLN and independent candidates are neck and neck in Punjab’s provincial assembly, which is considered vital to form a government due to its large number of seats.
“What is emerging is that two main parties will have control of two provinces, with PTI getting Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and PPP getting Sindh. Whoever controls Punjab will always have a sword of Damocles hanging on their head, due to the divided result,” he added.
Why are there allegations of manipulation?
While the parties have commenced discussions to form a new government, the PTI has alleged widespread manipulation of the results to steal its majority. Where it could have been in a position to form a government on its own, it now requires coalition support to do so.
The party’s leader, Imran Khan, who has been imprisoned after being found guilty of corruption charges, has stated multiple times that the PTI will refuse to be part of a coalition government.
The election results came in unusually late despite a deadline set by the country’s poll body. Results started to emerge nearly 10 hours after the voting ended.
The PTI has alleged that results from many seats were tampered with to deny it a victory. Some candidates have already started legal action, demanding that the courts issue a stay order on the final results.
The international community, including the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union, have also demanded an investigation into claims made by the PTI.
What will PTI candidates do now?
The PTI, unwilling to enter into any formal alliance with another party, is considering joining the opposition benches “under the banner” of another party to gain access to the government. In the meantime, it will also pursue legal avenues to overturn seats it alleges have been stolen from its candidates.
“We’ll be merging with a small party so that we go into parliament under a symbol, and that means our candidates will not be independents any more. We will join a political party of the choice of our leader, Imran Khan,” Syed Zulfikar Bukhari, a senior PTI member, told Al Jazeera.
However, another prominent PTI member, Gohar Ali Khan, who is heading the party following Khan’s imprisonment, said in a news conference on Saturday that the party will continue to try to form a government since it won the most seats.
Speaking in Islamabad, he added that if complete results were not released by Saturday night, the PTI would hold peaceful protests on Sunday.
However, Bukhari, who is also an adviser to Khan, said the party is content to take up the position of “kingmaker” due to its number of seats and will do “whatever we want to”.
“We will not be aligning with any major party to set up a hodgepodge government in the centre. We have learned from our previous tenure that having a compromised government with allies means being blackmailed daily,” he said.
He further added that he does not believe a government formed via an alliance of other parties would last long.
“We intend to merge with a party for the sake of putting all our candidates under one banner, and we will be the strongest opposition this country has ever seen,” Bukhari said.
What will happen next?
Amid so much uncertainty, analysts believe that the split result means that no party will be able to form a government on its own – two out of the three big parties will be forced to form an alliance.
Basit of S Rajaratnam School told Al Jazeera he foresees a return of the ruling alliance that governed the country after April 2022, when Khan’s PTI government was removed following a vote of no confidence.
“From the fact that PPP and PMLN have already held a meeting and Sharif in his speech said he wants to reach out to other political parties, it appears we are going to see the emergence of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) version 2.0 from this result,” he said, referring to the ruling alliance that managed to remove Khan.
Political analyst Arifa Noor, however, said the PTI must focus on forming a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where it has swept the provincial assembly, winning 90 out of 115 seats.
“Forming government there should be their focus right now. They should be aware of the ground realities that the military establishment is not going to give PTI any space, so it would make sense to settle on their stronghold there,” she told Al Jazeera.
Basit, though, said the results have shown that the election did not deliver the required stability that the country “desperately” needs.
“The objective of these elections was to secure some stability in the country that is mired in crises, such as the political instability, weak economy or the security concerns. But with these results, only a messy set-up will come up, and stability will continue to remain elusive,” he said.
Noor added that, considering the sorts of allegations the PTI is making regarding results tampering, many of its legislators may now end up spending precious resources, time and energy on fighting out these battles in court.
“It requires time and effort, and while some are definitely going to pursue that, many other politicians seem to question if it is worth doing this. However, I do think there is going to be a legal battle ahead of the results,” she added.
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US President Donald Trump has circulated the draft peace agreement for the war with Iran among allies, including Israel, while attempts are underway to prevent new ceasefire violations from escalating and derailing any agreement. Meanwhile, in an effort to accelerate negotiations, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, will be in Washington today to meet with his US counterpart, Marco Rubio.
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Direct military negotiations between Israel and Lebanon start today at the Pentagon
The first direct meeting between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations opens today at the Pentagon as part of the negotiations promoted by the United States after the truce that came into effect, at least on paper, in mid-April. The talks take place while Israel intensifies raids and bombardments in Lebanon, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Jewish state has issued several forced displacement orders to Israeli civilians in Nabatiye and Tyre, the two main Lebanese cities in the south of the country. Beirut’s armed forces come to the table with a position defined by President Joseph Aoun, who is considered close to the United States: a complete ceasefire, an end to Israeli operations, withdrawal from the occupied areas in the south, and increased army deployment along the border. Beirut also demands the release of Lebanese prisoners, the return of displaced persons, and international support for reconstruction. The meeting follows two previous negotiating sessions held in Washington on 14 and 15 May, which led to the extension of the ‘truce’ for 45 days. The United States, engaged in large-scale negotiations with Hezbollah supporter Iran, is aiming to strengthen direct military coordination between the two sides. In this sense, a new political round at the State Department is scheduled for 2 and 3 June. However, the most delicate knot remains on the table: Israel claims the right to conduct preventive operations against threats considered imminent, a formula contested by Beirut and at the centre of internal Lebanese tensions. At the same time, Washington continues to exert pressure on the Hezbollah disarmament dossier, while the Shiite movement reiterates its rejection of direct negotiations and continues its operations against the Israeli occupation forces in southern Lebanon. According to data gathered from Lebanese sources, more than 4,500 Israeli violations, more than 5,500 homes destroyed, and direct or indirect Israeli military control over more than 65 locations in South Lebanon have been recorded since the start of the mid-April ‘truce’.
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Israeli and Lebanese military delegations opened Pentagon-mediated talks Friday morning in Washington, launching a new U.S.-brokered security coordination track aimed at preventing renewed escalation along the Israel–Lebanon border and shoring up a fragile ceasefire reached in mid-April.
A State Department official told Fox News Digital that, “As we have continuously stated, the only path to lasting peace is through direct negotiations between the two sovereign governments.”
The discussions mark a shift from diplomatic negotiations into direct military coordination, with talks expected to focus on ceasefire enforcement, border stability, Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon and the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces in containing Hezbollah.
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Michael Needham, counselor for the U.S. Department of State, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter pose for a photo before a meeting at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on April 14, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)
The talks come weeks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire first reached during the broader regional conflict tied to the U.S.–Iran war. While large-scale fighting has eased, Israeli forces continue operating inside parts of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah maintains drone and rocket capabilities, keeping tensions high along the border.
The ceasefire was extended on May 15 for another 45 days, creating pressure on both sides to show progress before the current arrangement expires.
But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.
“This will be the first meeting between representatives of the militaries since the start of the negotiation process between Lebanon and Israel,” Ahmed Sharawi, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told Fox News Digital.
Representing Lebanon in the talks is Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, who previously served as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, an area where Hezbollah maintains a strong presence. Hezbollah is the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization.
“What we should expect is talks regarding de-confliction and what the expectations are for the LAF in terms of the broader disarmament plan against Hezbollah’s weapons,” he said.
Sharawi said the chances of a broader breakthrough remain limited so long as Hezbollah remains heavily armed and politically entrenched inside Lebanon.
“The biggest obstacle here is that the Lebanese state is yet to present a feasible plan to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.
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But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse. (Ibrahim AMRO / AFP via Getty Images)
He pointed to the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which placed responsibility for disarming Hezbollah on the Lebanese state.
“We are yet to see the confiscation of one single bullet from Hezbollah,” Sharawi said.
He also warned that Hezbollah’s deep support among Lebanon’s Shiite population complicates any attempt to move toward normalization with Israel.
“There’s a fear of a civil war,” he said. “That also accounts for the Lebanese state’s unwillingness to disarm Hezbollah.”
The talks opened as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel intends to maintain military pressure on Hezbollah despite the negotiations.
Sharawi argued the Trump administration nevertheless appears determined to push the process forward as part of a broader effort to weaken Iranian influence in the region.
“The reason behind these meetings is that President Trump is really trying to push for a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon,” he said. “Peace between these two countries could really undermine Hezbollah and its influence in Lebanon.”
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Churches in the southern Lebanese town of Rmeish remained standing throughout the conflict, as residents say the community resisted Hezbollah attempts to launch rockets from the area. (Jusoor News)
Israeli analysts similarly described the talks less as a breakthrough and more as a strategic signal aimed at Hezbollah.
“The war between us and Hezbollah is continuing,” Yossi Kuperwasser, senior project manager at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the Research Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, told Fox News Digital.
“There is no doubt the Lebanese government does not have a monopoly on the use of force in Lebanon,” he said.
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IDF troops discovered a Hezbollah weapons cache near a UNIFIL post in southern Lebanon in 2024. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)
Kuperwasser said expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough should remain low, but argued the talks themselves send an important political message.
“The purpose of these talks is first and foremost to send a message to Hezbollah and also to the Americans,” he said. “Both sides are prepared to sit together against Hezbollah and signal that they are moving, even if slowly, toward normalization between Israel and Lebanon.”
He argued Hezbollah has been weakened politically and militarily by the ongoing conflict and by growing frustration among Lebanese civilians displaced by the fighting.
“For years Hezbollah portrayed itself as the defender of Lebanon,” Kuperwasser said. “Now many Lebanese see Hezbollah as responsible for the suffering Lebanon is experiencing.”
Kuperwasser added that while Israel supports strengthening the Lebanese army, Beirut fears direct confrontation with Hezbollah could ignite another civil war.
“The Lebanese government fears military action against Hezbollah would lead to civil war,” he said. “That fear shapes everything.”
The talks also come amid mounting domestic pressure inside Israel, where critics of Netanyahu have accused the government of pursuing containment rather than decisive military victory against Hezbollah.
Speaking Friday during a visit to Israel’s northern front, Netanyahu said Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and were operating across multiple parts of Lebanon.
“We are operating in Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, across the entire front and striking Hezbollah hard,” Netanyahu said.
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A woman holds her dog as she walks past burned cars a day after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, on April 9, 2026. (Emilio Morenatti/AP)
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s leadership is attempting to balance growing American pressure with fears of internal instability and renewed sectarian conflict.
Neither the Israeli Embassy in Washington nor the Lebanese Embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for comment. The Pentagon did not have anything to add when asked to comment.
The United Nations has confirmed it placed Israel on a blacklist of countries suspected of committing sexual violence against civilians, and pushed back on accusations made by Israel regarding its inclusion.
The list, part of a “conflict-related sexual violence” report released on Friday, prompted Israel’s foreign ministry to say it would sever all ties with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
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Last August, the UN cited “credible information” regarding sexual violence committed by Israeli security forces against Palestinian detainees in prisons and other detention centres, and said UN inspectors had been denied access to the facilities.
“We invited the representative of the UN to come to Israel to check those ridiculous allegations. They chose not to come,” Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon posted on X on Thursday.
“I never received an iota of information on measures taken by the government of Israel on implementation of the preventive measures,” Pramila Patten, the UN official who authored the report, told reporters on Friday at a briefing at the UN’s New York headquarters.
“I have made several requests in writing, and sometimes during meetings, for details about initial steps, including the issuance of orders of command information on access and information on accountability measures, but I did not get any response on the substantive aspect of the preventive measures,” she added.
Patten did confirm that there had been an invitation from Israel, but referred also to disagreements about the scope of the visit and related issues of access and cooperation, and said it ultimately had to be suspended due to Israel’s war on Gaza.
‘Multiple incidents’ in Gaza and occupied West Bank
This year’s report said that in 2025 “the United Nations verified multiple incidents of conflict-related sexual violence, including as a form of torture, inflicted against 14 men, seven women, nine boys and one girl from the Gaza Strip and the [occupied] West Bank.”
It said 13 of the attacks happened last year, and 18 in 2023 and 2024.
“Violations consisted of rape, including with objects, gang rape, attempted rape, physical violence to the genitals, instances of targeted shooting of the genitals, touching of breasts and genitals, strip and cavity searches conducted without apparent security justification, forced nudity and threats of rape,” it said.
“Rape and gang rape, in some cases repeated, were perpetrated against nine victims, the majority Palestinians from Gaza,” it said, adding that perpetrators included Israeli armed and security forces. The assaults occurred primarily during detention and interrogation in several sites, including military camps, at checkpoints and during Israeli military operations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
It said survivors included journalists and human rights defenders and in some cases, the violations were filmed or photographed, including one case of rape.
The report added that sexual violence against female detainees included mostly threats of rape, forced nudity, unwanted touching, and humiliating or degrading strip searches without justification, while men and boys were targeted with rape, attempted rape and violence to the genitals.
This resulted in five male victims suffering severe rectal bleeding or swelling for multiple days or weeks, it added.
Russia added to list alongside Israel
The latest UN report also contains harrowing descriptions of abuses at the hands of Russia’s military after “findings of continued patterns of sexual violence documented”.
The UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine had verified 310 cases of conflict-related sexual violence perpetrated by Russian armed and security forces.
It said the cases, including rape, gang rape, genital mutilation, electric shocks and beatings to the genitals, injured 280 men, 26 women and four girls.
The report’s annex lists 77 parties deemed responsible for patterns of conflict-related sexual violence, including 62 non-state actors.
New additions include three non-state armed groups operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Nearly 10,000 cases of conflict-related sexual violence were recorded worldwide last year – more than double the previous year’s figure, the report said.
Being added to the list does not automatically carry specific punitive measures such as sanctions, although public naming and shaming can cause significant reputational damage for the states involved, and those repeatedly listed are barred from UN peacekeeping operations.
Patten said the increase in cases of conflict-related sexual violence verified by the United Nations marks a very disturbing trend that was still only the “very tip of the iceberg”.
“This number can be attributed to the fact that we are going through a time when we have a record number of extremely violent conflicts, and the fact that perpetrators are feeling emboldened by a context of impunity, where this crime is almost cost-free,” she said.
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