World
Berlusconi’s death leaves fate of his personal party, and Italy’s government, in the balance
MILAN (AP) — Silvio Berlusconi’s outsized hold on Italian political life over three decades had greatly diminished in recent years, yet the political party that remains fused with his image even in death is critical to the health of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government.
Whether and how Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party survives is quietly being discussed on the inside pages of newspapers and back corridors of parliament, while Italy prepares for a national day of mourning and a state funeral on Wednesday, to be celebrated in Milan’s stately Gothic-era Duomo cathedral.
Berlusconi’s deputy, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, declared on Monday: “We have the duty, as Forza Italia, to move forward, and we will.”
Despite the reassuring words, Forza Italia’s fate is far from secure. Berlusconi’s personal hold on the party makes it vulnerable in his death, experts say, even as it is key to holding up Meloni’s 8-month-old coalition government.
“If the party stands, then the government is OK. But if the party starts to disintegrate you have to see where these people go,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, a political scientist who writes for Il Sole 24 Ore. “Meloni needs these votes in the Senate and in the house. Meloni cannot do without that 8%.”
Berlusconi founded Forza Italia in 1994, entering politics as a major corruption scandal created a power vacuum. He briefly renamed it People of Liberty, before returning to the original name after the defection of a one-time political successor.
Forza Italia was the largest vote-winner in its maiden 1994 election, with 21% of the vote, securing Berlusconi’s first term as prime minister. He headed his second government after winning 29.4% of the vote in 2001. People of Liberty, which incorporated another political movement, peaked at 37.4% of the vote, returning him to power in 2008.
He led his final government until 2011, when Italy’s spiraling debt crisis forced his resignation, and succession by a government run by technocrats.
By last year’s elections that brought Meloni to power, the Forza Italia movement had shrunk to 8% of the vote, weakened by Berlusconi’s six-year forced absence from politics due to a 2012 tax fraud conviction, the only one that stuck in dozens of trials, and the rise Meloni’s Brothers of Italy on the far-right.
The party’s strength was always its mirror image with Berlusconi, whose power and empathy have been remembered even by his critics and opponents. Berlusconi attracted fierce loyalty among a close cadre of political and business collaborators, but also among rank-and-file supporters, many who have hung mementos and placards with words of affection in a hedge at his villa near Milan, where friends and family viewed his body on Tuesday.
But he never quite trusted anyone enough to name a political heir, despite a couple of half-hearted feints, creating room for leadership challenges and further splintering after is death.
“It is not very much a personal party. It is exclusively a personal party,” said Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome’s LUISS University who wrote a Berlusconi biography.
Berlusconi never loved sharing the spotlight, and his discomfort with the role switch, with Meloni as premier and him as a junior partner, was evident. Photographers in parliament last fall caught him jotting down unflattering adjectives next to her name: “presumptuous, bossy, arrogant, offensive.”
Even in death, his withering opinion has been cast over the surviving political class. Michele Santoro, a TV presenter and long-time critic of Berlusconi, told La7 private TV Monday that the ex-premier had recently complained in a long phone call about the “inadequacy of the Italian politicians on the right and the left with an incredible lucidity.”
Tajani, Berlusconi’s long-time confidant, appears best positioned to take over, strengthened by his ties to the center-right European People’s Party, with the next year’s European Parliamentary elections the next major political test. But he could be challenged if the party drops significantly in the polls in the coming months.
“If I were them, I would sit around a table to try to hammer out a deal. It is in their interest to stay together as much as possible,” Orsina said.
Still, few expect the government to face any immediate threats, even if the party does splinter. Most Forza Italia votes would stay on the right, with Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party or Salvini’s League, with a minor percentage defecting to former Premier Matteo Renzi, who now heads a small centrist party.
“Whatever happens to Forza Italia, I don’t think there is any danger to the government, which is way too strong,” Orsina said. “Whatever happens to Forza Italia, these people have nowhere else to go.”
There remains a hypothesis that Berlusconi’s eldest daughter, Marina Berlusconi, would step in to guide the party, at least behind the scenes, to overcome divisions.
“I don’t see the party able to stay together with the bunch of people who are supposedly running it today,” said D’Alimonte. “In my opinion, Marina Berlusconi wants to keep the party aligned with Meloni. I think she will continue to play a significant part behind the scenes to keep the party together.”
D’Alimonte said she would be motivated both by loyalty to her father, but also “for corporate interests,” to protect the Mediaset empire that made her father a billionaire.
“One of the most important reasons that the party was founded was to protect the company on the political front,” D’Alimonte said. “It is an insurance policy. The party has always been an insurance policy, and she understands that very well.”
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World
Israel moves towards ceasefire deal with Hezbollah: reports
Israel is reportedly moving towards a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon after nearly a year of fighting escalated into an all-out war in September.
Israeli media outlets including YNET and Haaretz have reported that Israel has tentatively agreed to a U.S.-backed proposal for a ceasefire. No final deal has been reached, according to the reports.
Lebanon and the militia group Hezbollah reportedly agreed to the deal last week but both sides need to give the final okay before it can materialize.
The reported ceasefire deal comes after Hezbollah launched one of its largest rocket attacks on Israel in exchange for Israeli forces striking Hezbollah command centers in Beirut.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
World
Yamandu Orsi wins Uruguay’s run-off presidential election
Yamandu Orsi, the candidate for the left-wing Broad Front coalition, is projected to emerge victorious in Uruguay’s run-off election for the presidency.
He bested Alvaro Delgado of the ruling National Party to win the tightly fought race, though public opinion polls showed the two candidates in a dead heat in the lead-up to Sunday’s vote.
Orsi’s supporters took to the streets in the capital of Montevideo, as the official results started to show the former mayor and history teacher surging ahead.
Many waved the party banner: a red, blue and white striped flag with the initials FA for “Frente Amplio”, which translates to “Broad Front”.
“Joy will return for the majority,” the coalition posted on social media as Orsi approached victory. “Cheers, people of Uruguay.”
Orsi’s win restores the Broad Front to power in the small South American country, sandwiched on the Atlantic coast between Brazil and Argentina.
For 15 years, from 2005 to 2020, the Broad Front had held Uruguay’s executive office, with the presidencies of Jose Mujica and Tabare Vazquez, the latter of whom won two non-consecutive, five-year terms.
But that winning streak came to an end in the 2019 election, with the victory of current President Luis Lacalle Pou, who led a coalition of right-leaning parties.
Under Uruguay law, however, a president cannot run for consecutive terms. Lacalle Pou was therefore not a candidate in the 2024 race.
Running in his stead was Delgado, a former veterinarian and Congress member who served as a political appointee in Lacalle Pou’s government from 2020 to 2023.
Even before the official results were announced on Sunday, Delgado had conceded, acknowledging Orsi’s victory was imminent.
“Today, the Uruguayans have defined who will hold the presidency of the republic. And I want to send here, with all these actors of the coalition, a big hug and a greeting to Yamandu Orsi,” Delgado said in a speech as he clutched a large Uruguayan flag in his hand.
He called on his supporters to “respect the sovereign decisions” of the electorate, while striking a note of defiance.
“It’s one thing to lose an election, and another to be defeated. We are not defeated,” he said, pledging that his right-wing coalition was “here to stay”.
The outgoing president, Lacalle Pou, also reached out to Orsi to acknowledge the Broad Front’s victory.
“I called [Yamandu Orsi] to congratulate him as president-elect of our country and to put myself at his service and begin the transition as soon as I deem it pertinent,” Lacalle Pou wrote on social media.
Orsi had been considered the frontrunner in the lead-up to the first round of the elections.
Originally from Canelones, a coastal regional in the south of Uruguay, Orsi began his career locally as a history teacher, activist and secretary-general of the department’s government. In 2015, he successfully ran to be mayor of Canelones and won re-election in 2020.
In the 2024 presidential race, Orsi – like virtually all the candidates on the campaign trail – pledged to bolster Uruguay’s economy. He called for salary increases, particularly for low-wage workers, to grow their “purchasing power”.
He also called for greater early childhood education and employment programmes for young adults. According to a United Nations report earlier this year, nearly 25 percent of Uruguay’s children live in poverty.
But the economy was not the only issue at the forefront of voters’ minds. In a June survey from the communications firm Nomade, the largest share of respondents – 29 percent – identified “insecurity” as Uruguay’s “principal problem”.
That dwarfed the second-highest ranked topic: “Unemployment” was only picked by 15 percent of respondents.
As part of his platform, Orsi pledged to increase the police force and strengthen Uruguay’s borders, including through the installation of more security cameras.
As he campaigned, Orsi enjoyed the support of former President Mujica, a former rebel fighter who survived torture under Uruguay’s military dictatorship in the 1970s and ’80s.
Mujica remains a popular figure on Uruguay’s left, best known for his humble living arrangements that once earned him the moniker of the “world’s poorest president”.
In the first round of voting, on October 27, Orsi came out on top, with 44 percent of the vote to Delgado’s 27 percent. But his total was far short of the 50 percent he needed to win the election outright, thereby triggering a run-off.
The race got tighter from there forward. Only two candidates progressed to the run-off – Delgado and Orsi – and Delgado picked up support from voters who had backed former Colorado Party candidate Andres Ojeda, a fellow conservative who was knocked out in the first round.
Nevertheless, Orsi quickly pulled ahead after the polls closed for the run-off election on Sunday.
“The horizon is brightening,” Orsi said in his victory speech. “The country of freedom, equality and also fraternity triumphs once again.”
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