Subject to decisions pending in Tehran in response to the double-targeted killings of senior Hezbollah and Hamas officials, Israel now seems on the brink of a multi-front regional conflagration.
Is victory assured? At what cost? Could White House Special Envoy Amos Hochstein’s diplomatic ploy eventually prevail? The initiatives are left to Iran and its proxies, but should Israel identify imminent preparations for attack, it will likely act to preempt.
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To date, Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in a limited war of attrition. On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah joined Hamas in waging war on Israel. Lebanon’s Iranian proxy declaratively sought to apply tactical pressure on Israel’s Northern front.
It seemingly succeeded, effectively forcing the IDF to split its forces, with a recorded northern deployment of between three to five Divisions, manned by a reservists call-up, amounting to a force of roughly 300-thousand troops.
During the initial stages of the war, Jerusalem’s War Cabinet deliberated whether to launch a two-front offensive against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant voted in favor, while former War Cabinet Ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot voted against.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Ministers and MK’s at a 40 signatures debate, at the plenum hall of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on July 17, 2024. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
Netanyahu and the US
Ultimately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ruled in favor of the latter position after President Joe Biden held a phone conversation with the Israeli premier and threatened to pull US military support unless the IDF limits its retaliatory strikes to territories south of the Litani River and refrain from targeting Lebanon’s critical infrastructure, altogether.
Nine months later, the Biden Administration remains proactively determined to de-escalate daily cross-border hostilities, leveraging crucial ammunition shipments as one of its methods to effectively control Israel’s battle intensity versus Hezbollah in Lebanon.
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In doing so, Washington hopes to buy enough time to secure a temporary arrangement, utilizing Parliament Speaker Nabi Berri, leader of the Shi’ite Amal Movement, as a mediator.
However, a senior Israeli intelligence official ascertained, “Berri has no leverage over Hezbollah,” rather, “it is the other way around.” Hezbollah evidently maintains the upper hand in negotiations, irrespective of the Biden Administration’s hopes and aspirations.
The majority of Israel’s defense and political elites seemingly believe the rationale articulated by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.
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“On that day, when the shooting stops in Gaza, we will stop the shooting in the south [of Lebanon],” Nasrallah insisted in one of his many televised addresses. In daily conversations with Israeli intelligence officials and military officers, broad sentiments of wishful thinking linger vis-à-vis achieving a negotiated solution.
“Even Netanyahu hopes for a diplomatic outcome”, one official told me, as he subsequently professed that Jerusalem would much rather fight Hezbollah once fully equipped with a long list of new military technologies on the verge of operational integration.
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Nevertheless, despite hopes for a peaceful resolution, no one in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv is under delusion. Tens of thousands of displaced Israelis will not return to their homes unless a sense of security is achieved.
Moreover, in stark contrast to popular belief regarding Iran supposedly restraining Hezbollah, the Ayatollah regime has a vested strategic interest in fueling the war within current established parameters, as it remains evasive of paying any substantive toll for its belligerent activities, while its heavily armed Lebanese proxy showcases battle-discipline, worthy of most Western militaries, with clear pre-planned objectives. Nevertheless, prospects for miscalculation are seemingly intensifying with every passing day.
Despite popular belief, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s intensive efforts to catalog regional hostilities as a response to the Palestinian plight is a cheap ruse. The current multi-front Mideast war is not a simple case of causality rooted in the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
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Rather, we’re witnessing the prudent implementation of Iran’s strategic schemes, as was envisioned by its slain IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, as part of which Hamas is a key factor in Iran’s ars bellica, for both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as well as the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
Last week, in a conversation with Major General (Res) Gershon Ha-Cohen, a former General Staff and Northern Corps’ commander, he cautioned that US White House Envoy Amos Hochstein was seeking to formulate a deal that would undoubtedly spell ‘defeat marred by painful concessions for Israel.’
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Hochstein essentially seeks to force Israel’s hand to concede border-lands in exchange for a temporary withdrawal of Hezbollah operatives several miles northward. “What’s to stop those operatives from returning to the south [of Lebanon], five minutes after an agreement is signed?” General Ha-Cohen questioned with an evident sense of frustration. “They demand of us an irreversible concession in exchange for a reversible act.”
Purportedly ignoring Iran’s grand strategy, the Biden Administration is doubling down on pressuring Israel to accept the proposed deal for a Northern ceasefire. Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer met with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during the course of which they demanded assurances.
In the event that Hezbollah breaches the terms of a proposed US-led arrangement, the United States would support Israel in waging a full-scale war against Hezbollah, with the aim of destroying the Iranian proxy once and for all. ‘Without such an assurance,’ Hanegbi and Dermer insisted, Israel’s ‘northern residents would not gain the sense of security necessary to return to their homes,’ a Jerusalem pre-requisite for any diplomatic solution.
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Washington must recalculate its strategic approach to the Middle East. It cannot push to de-escalate the region without asking some tough questions on a so-called ‘strategic day after.’
Does the Biden Team’s approach benefit US strategic interests for decades to come? Or does it play into the hands of its adversaries, including Iran, Russia, and China? Despite the Biden-Harris Administration’s evident conviction of the former, regional actors, including allies and adversaries alike, are seemingly convinced of the latter.
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The only way forward is for Washington to reassert its dominance in the Middle East. To do so, without the need to commit additional military assets to the CENTCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR), it should reinvigorate tangible support for its Mideastern allies and partners, including Israel, in confronting the so-called Axis of Resistance led by Iran.
The United States must counter Tehran’s grand strategy by pushing for an expansion of the Abraham Accords and reviving military support for its regional partners, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to confront Iran’s regional encroachment via its proxies.
Washington must revitalize its maximum economic pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic proper and enforce its sanctions by all means necessary. European powers, for their part, must stand in support of the United States by triggering the snap-back mechanism before it expires in October of 2025, aimed at derailing Tehran’s nuclear train as it races at full steam ahead.
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As for Israel and the pragmatic Arab camp, they must join forces to implement a campaign of reality-building to push back on Iran’s malign encroachment by effectively inserting much-needed hope for a future of peace and prosperity for all peoples of the Middle East.
Jonathan Hessen is a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, editor-in-chief of TV7 Israel, and CEO of HGS. He specializes in geostrategy and security issues related to the Middle East and Europe.
Juvenile curfew order was imposed in Washington DC on Saturday after Halloween evening misbehaviour. Executive Office of Washington DC Mayor on November 1 announced restrictions on movement of those below 18 during nighttime over the next few days, in the wake of disorderly behaviour in the past weeks.
The decision follows Halloween-related incidents where young people engaged in brawling, blocked streets and endangered public safety. “The behavior on Halloween evening – which included young people brawling, blocking streets, and moving into commercial establishments in large groups, endangering both themselves and others in the area – follows several weekends of similar behavior by youth in neighborhoods across the District,” the notice issued by Mayor Muriel Bowser states.
Curfew time: From 11:00 PM till 6:00 AM
Curfew last date: November 5
‘All juveniles are subject to a curfew’
Muriel Bowser in a post on X stated, “We are declaring a limited juvenile curfew in Washington, DC. Effective immediately, all juveniles under the age of 18 are subject to a curfew from 11PM until 6AM, which will extend through 11/5.”
Clarifying the reason for the curfew, Muriel Bowser added, “This is in response to several weeks of disorderly juvenile behavior which endangered both themselves and others.”
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This comes after five youth were arrested on October 31 by the police and one officer suffered minor injuries. Besides the curfew, the police will designate special zones which are at high risk for disorderly conduct. These locations will have longer curfew times, beginning as early as 6:00 PM.
Furthermore, the notice warns the youths against declaration of temporary curfew zone in case of a group gathering of more than seven youth citing threat to “safety of the youth, residents, or the public.”
List of Special Juvenile Curfew Zones
On Saturday night, Chief of Police Pamela A Smith announced several of the above mentioned “Special Juvenile Curfew Zones” as specified here:
Navy Yard
near the U Street Coridor
Banneker Recreation Center near Howard University
Union Station
The Navy Yard juvenile curfew zones covers the stretch between Interstate 695 and the Anacostia River on the north and south. It covers the area between 8th Street SE in the east and South Capitol in the west, FOX5 reported
The designated zone near the U Street Corridor covers the stretch between 9th Street NW and Florida Avenue in the east and 15th Street from T Street to V Street NW in the west. It covers the area between V Street and Vermont Avenue NW in the north and T Street NW in the south.
The zone at Banneker Recreation Center stretches between Georgia Avenue NW and 9th Street NW to the east and west. It covers the area between Euclid Street NW and W Street NW to the north and south.
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The zone at Union Station covers the stretch 3rd Street NE and North Capitol Street NE to the east and west. It covers the area between H Street NE and D Street NE to the north and south.
The judges ruled in favor of local officials who sought to force the federal government to keep the SNAP program running in November.
Volunteers, many of whom use the food bank, hand out food to clients at the Ecumenical Ministries of Oregon’s Northeast Emergency Food Program in Portland, Ore., on Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025.
Eli Imadali / OPB
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Two federal judges on Friday ordered the Trump administration to use emergency reserve money to fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program amid the ongoing federal shutdown. But Oregon and Washington SNAP recipients expecting to get benefits the first week of November could still see a delay.
Judges order the Trump administration to use contingency funds for SNAP payments during the shutdown
Judge John J. McConnell of Rhode Island directed the U.S. Department of Agriculture to use contingency funding appropriated by Congress to fund the food stamp program, which helps more than 757,000 Oregonians and more than 905,000 Washington residents buy groceries.
McConnell ordered the federal government to “ distribute the contingency money timely or as soon as possible for the Nov. 1 payments to be made,” as reported by the New York Times.
In a second ruling from Boston, a judge said the federal government would have to use an equitable approach to reducing benefits if it did not have the funds to fully pay for SNAP.
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A spokesperson for Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek did not have an immediate comment and referred questions to the Oregon Department of Human Services, which helps administer the program. A spokesperson for that agency did not immediately respond to a text message.
Oregon contracts with a third-party processor to make benefits payments, and in interviews before Friday’s court rulings, state officials told OPB that means quick changes to SNAP payment plans could overwhelm its systems.
“Due to the unprecedented and complex nature of this situation, ODHS’ EBT vendor that distributes federal SNAP money has not been able to give us a concrete timeline regarding the post-shutdown November SNAP issuance,” an Oregon Department of Human Services spokesperson said.
The Rhode Island federal court order to continue payments came one day before federal funding for the SNAP program was set to run out.
That would have left millions of Americans without the benefits they rely on to put food on their tables. Congress has yet to pass a short-term spending bill to fund programs like SNAP, and the Trump administration said it would not use contingency funds to pay for food assistance.
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In Oregon, more than half of SNAP recipients are seniors, children and people with disabilities.
This is a breaking story. Watch for updates.
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A third teenager has been arrested and charged in the shooting death of a University of Massachusetts student who was working as a congressional intern in Washington, D.C. this summer.
Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, 21, of Granby, Massachusetts, was an innocent bystander when he was shot four times near the convention center in Washington on June 30. Investigators say three armed suspects exited a stolen vehicle and began firing shots at two young men.
Tarpinian-Jachym was rushed to the hospital where he died the next day. Five other people were assaulted or injured in the incident, prosecutors said.
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On Wednesday night, 18-year-old Naqwan Antonio Lucas of the District of Columbia, was arrested in Montgomery Village, Maryland and charged in Tarpinian-Jachym’s murder.
Last month, 17-year-old Kelvin Thomas, Jr. and Naqwan Lucas’ brother, 17-year-old Jailen Lucas, were arrested and charged as adults on counts of first-degree murder while armed in connection with Tarpinian-Jachym’s murder.
Tarpinian-Jachym was a rising senior at UMass Amherst and was spending the summer in Washington as a congressional intern for Rep. Ron Estes, a Republican from Kansas.
Naqwan Lucas pleaded not guilty at his arraignment in D.C. Superior Court on Thursday afternoon. He is being held until a status hearing with his co-defendants on November 7.
Naqwan Lucas was also charged in the July 4 murder of 17-year-old Zoey Kelley, who was found dead of a gunshot wound to the head in a bedroom closet of an apartment in Washington, D.C.
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Last week, the Metropolitan Police Department and FBI announced a $75,000 reward for information leading to Lucas’ arrest.
