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Analysis | Where 2024 voters moved since 2020 — and how they registered

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Analysis | Where 2024 voters moved since 2020 — and how they registered


Between any two presidential elections, there is an enormous amount of churn in the electorate, both nationally and at the state level. A lot of this is obvious: People die, young people turn 18 and register to vote (and then often don’t vote again for a decade or two), people lose or gain interest in candidates or issues.

There’s another factor, too, that often goes underrecognized. Over the course of four years, a lot of people simply pull up stakes and move. And that, at least in theory, can have an effect on the outcome of an election.

This is not easy to track. The Census Bureau collects data on interstate moves year over year, but in the aggregate. We can’t see, for example, whether someone moved from one state to another and then back. And we can only guess at what the political effects might be. Is someone moving from Ohio to Michigan adding a Republican vote to the latter state or is it a Democrat seeking slightly bluer climes?

We have another set of data that offers us a better lens into this question of partisan flow. L2, a political data vendor, tracks individual registrations over time, including after people move across state lines. An analysis of that data offers a picture — albeit an incomplete one — of the influx and outflow of state residents by party.

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There are two caveats that are worth keeping in mind.

The first is that not every move is captured in this data, even among voters who were registered in both states. In many cases, of course, people moving across state lines will register to vote for the first time in the new state; they won’t be reflected in this data. Nor will people who couldn’t be matched to their prior registrations (generally because they didn’t complete a change of address form with the post office).

The other caveat is that this analysis includes partisanship data that’s modeled by L2. In some states, registration is nonpartisan. In those states, L2 uses other data — voting patterns or demographics — to estimate partisanship.

With those qualifiers in place, we can simply jump into the data. What we were interested in was less the numbers of people going from state to state (given the qualifier about those numbers) than the patterns of that movement. For each state, we calculated the number of Democrats, Republicans and third-party or nonpartisans that moved into a state since 2020 and the number of each group that moved out. Then we presented those totals as a percentage of the state’s total population.

This was the result. Thicker bars on the left side than the right indicate more arrivals than departures. The bars are generally ordered by size: If the Republican bar is on top, more Republicans than other groups were coming or going.

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There are a lot of nuances to pick out of those charts; we’ll leave you to that.

Let’s drill down on the question we started with, though — considering how this might affect the presidential race. Comparing the net change among partisans (that is, those arriving minus those leaving) to the 2020 vote, we see that more-Democratic states were often those with bigger positive inflows of Democrats, though it’s cloudy. That partisan correlation was much stronger in more-Republican states.

In the middle there we see the swing states that flipped around in 2016 and 2020. We can pull the eight closest states in 2020 out and see that the net change by party varies. In Georgia, there’s been a bigger positive change for Democrats; in Florida, strongly for Republicans.

But what are the actual numbers, you demand. Well, in Georgia, the net advantage (comparing parties after subtracting outgoing voters from incoming ones) was a gain of about 18,000 Democrats. In Florida, it was 124,000 Republicans.

But again, this is just a sliver of movement. The Census Bureau’s data on moves from 2021 to 2022 shows 50 percent more inflow to Florida than there were new arrivals tracked by L2 over all four years. In Georgia, the Census Bureau’s one-year total is more than twice the L2 numbers. People are missed — including people registering for the first time.

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There’s one other point worth making: People who have newly moved are less likely to vote. Here’s other data from the Census Bureau, looking at the 2020 election.

There are a lot of reasons for this: They haven’t registered yet, for one, or they may not know where they are supposed to cast their ballot. People who move frequently are less likely to own homes and skew younger, and younger people vote less often.

In other words, do not use these numbers to make bold predictions about how this consistently close presidential contest will end up. Use them, instead, as a reminder to register and vote.



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Washington

Trial for murder at Catholic University stalls after detective charged with misconduct

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Trial for murder at Catholic University stalls after detective charged with misconduct


The murder trial of a man accused of killing a teacher on the campus of Catholic University in 2023 was supposed to start Wednesday. But that case has been thrown into turmoil after defense attorneys say the lead D.C. police detective was removed from the case and charged with misconduct.

New court documents reveal the detective is accused of having sex on the job and recording it on a police-issued cellphone.

In a hearing one of the supervisors admitted was highly unusual, the judge and the defense attorneys wanted to know why the U.S. Attorney’s office did not disclose until last week that the lead detective in the murder of 25-year old Maxwell Emerson was removed from the case just weeks after an arrest was made and placed under investigation for alleged misconduct.

In a motion filed Tuesday, the defense said, in part “The government withheld evidence that its lead detective, Detective Thomas Roy, had engaged in conduct so concerning that the Metropolitan Police Department proposed his termination, removed him as a lead detective, transferred him out of the homicide section and instituted a last chance agreement”.

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The defense attorneys wrote in their motion that Roy neglected his duties in Aug. 2022 “when he engaged in sexual intercourse with another homicide detective in his unit at her home while on duty and recorded two videos of their sexual encounter on an MPD issued cell phone.”

According to the motion filed by the defense, the detective was not placed under investigation until after Jaime Macedo was charged with the murder that occurred on catholic university campus back in July 2023.

News4 reported extensively on the case at the time. Police say Macedo is accused of following Emerson from the Brookland metro station on the morning of July 5. Surveillance video released by police show Emerson at one point walking with his hands raised in the air before the two ended up in a park near Alumni Lane.

Police say the two got into a struggle before Macedo is accused of shooting Emerson one time in the abdomen.

Emerson was a Kentucky teacher visiting D.C. for a conference at the Library of Congress Teacher Institute.

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In the motion filed by the defense, in which they argue the indictment should be dismissed, the attorneys cite an internal affairs document that says, “Detective Roy’s misconduct had cast a shadow over his credibility and reputation as a law enforcement officer.”

It’s unclear when this case may go to trial. The judge still must rule on the motion by the defense.
D.C. police say Roy was disciplined and lost his job in homicide but is still employed as a detective.



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FAA mandates radar separation for helicopters and planes after deadly DC midair collision

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FAA mandates radar separation for helicopters and planes after deadly DC midair collision


Air traffic controllers will use radar, not just visual checks, to ensure that helicopters maintain a safe distance from arriving and departing airplanes in the wake of last year’s fatal midair collision near Washington, D.C., federal officials announced Wednesday.

The Federal Aviation Administration said recent near-misses show that previous guidelines for pilots to maintain visual separation between helicopters and airplanes have failed to provide adequate protection around busy airports.

Under the new guidelines, air traffic controllers must use radar to keep helicopters and airplanes apart by specific lateral or vertical distances. The new requirement applies to more than 150 of the nation’s busiest airports, extending a restriction already put in place at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.

“Today, we are proactively mitigating risks before they affect the traveling public,” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said in a news release. “Following the mid-air collision near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA), we looked at similar operations across the national airspace. We identified an overreliance on pilot ‘see and avoid’ operations that contribute to safety events involving helicopters and airplanes.”

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Officials also specifically mentioned a Feb. 27 near-miss in which a police helicopter had to turn to avoid an American Airlines flight that was landing at San Antonio International Airport in Texas. A similar close call happened on March 2, when a helicopter had to turn away from a small aircraft that had been cleared to arrive at California’s Hollywood Burbank Airport, officials said.

The January 2025 collision between an American Airlines jet and an Army Black Hawk helicopter killed 67 people, making it the deadliest plane crash on U.S. soil since 2001. Among other factors contributing to the crash, investigators said controllers in the Reagan tower overly relied on asking pilots to spot aircraft and maintain visual separation.

The night of the crash, the controller approved the Black Hawk’s request to do that twice. However, investigators say the helicopter pilots likely never spotted the American Airlines plane as the jet circled to land on the little-used secondary runway.

Many of the people who died were young figure skaters and their parents and coaches who had just attended a development camp in Wichita, Kansas, after the U.S. Figure Skating Championships were held there.

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Washington faces Detroit on 6-game home skid

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Washington faces Detroit on 6-game home skid


Detroit Pistons (49-19, first in the Eastern Conference) vs. Washington Wizards (16-52, 14th in the Eastern Conference)

Washington; Thursday, 7 p.m. EDT

BOTTOM LINE: Washington takes on Detroit looking to end its six-game home losing streak.

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The Wizards are 11-32 against Eastern Conference opponents. Washington allows 123.8 points to opponents and has been outscored by 11.0 points per game.

The Pistons are 33-11 in conference games. Detroit ranks seventh in the Eastern Conference with 27.0 assists per game led by Cade Cunningham averaging 9.9.

The Wizards’ 13.0 made 3-pointers per game this season are only 0.3 more made shots on average than the 12.7 per game the Pistons give up. The Pistons average 11.0 made 3-pointers per game this season, 2.7 fewer made shots on average than the 13.7 per game the Wizards give up.

The teams meet for the fourth time this season. In the last matchup on March 17 the Pistons won 130-117 led by 36 points from Jalen Duren, while Bub Carrington scored 30 points for the Wizards.

TOP PERFORMERS: Carrington is averaging 10 points and 4.5 assists for the Wizards. Tre Johnson is averaging 1.9 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games.

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Duren is averaging 19 points and 10.6 rebounds for the Pistons. Cunningham is averaging 17.6 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 46.8% over the past 10 games.

LAST 10 GAMES: Wizards: 0-10, averaging 117.6 points, 38.1 rebounds, 23.8 assists, 6.8 steals and 4.6 blocks per game while shooting 48.2% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 129.5 points per game.

Pistons: 5-5, averaging 116.9 points, 44.1 rebounds, 28.3 assists, 9.4 steals and 6.0 blocks per game while shooting 48.7% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 110.9 points.

INJURIES: Wizards: Anthony Davis: out (finger), Cam Whitmore: out for season (shoulder), Alex Sarr: day to day (hamstring), Leaky Black: day to day (ankle), Kyshawn George: out (elbow), D’Angelo Russell: day to day (not injury related), Trae Young: day to day (quad), Bilal Coulibaly: day to day (heel).

Pistons: Cade Cunningham: day to day (back), Isaiah Stewart: out (calf).

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The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.



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