Oil has been maybe the largest collateral sufferer as the banking drama unfold from California to Switzerland in latest days. In little greater than per week, Brent crude has fallen by $10 a barrel, or about 15%. The velocity and magnitude of the selloff has some traders asking: The place’s OPEC+? The oil cartel is, for now not less than, in wait-and-see mode, and unlikely to behave till the Federal Reserve concludes its subsequent financial coverage assembly on March 22.
Washington
Analysis | OPEC+ Isn’t Panicking About Oil’s Sudden Drop — Yet

In the previous couple of hours, the message I’ve heard from oil capitals is “no panic.” Maybe the group is just placing on a courageous face, shopping for time earlier than it must act. Maybe. Whereas Brent and West Texas Intermediate costs have fallen abruptly, OPEC+ delegates are nonetheless inspired by what they describe as strong Asian demand. China is on the mend, and India is shopping for quite a bit.
OPEC+ delegates largely blame the selloff on speculative cash leaving the derivatives oil market, fairly than any signal of weak spot within the bodily market. They observe, for instance, that official promoting costs from Saudi Arabia and different Center Japanese nations have been stronger month-on-month since January. Nothing I’ve heard sounds as if manufacturing cuts are across the nook.
Any put up mortem of the latest crash factors to a self-fulfilling wave of promoting centered on futures and choices, fairly than the bodily market. First, giant traders lifted their inflation hedges because the US Treasury market crashed. The wave of promoting stopped out some bullish commodity hedge funds, which in flip made them compelled sellers, forcing oil benchmarks even decrease. That’s when issues acquired actually ugly — as a result of the choices market got here into play.
This week, WTI fell into the $65-$70 a barrel vary the place US shale producers and the federal government of Mexico have bought ahead a variety of their manufacturing for 2023. Wall Road banks had been compelled to promote oil futures to guard themselves towards losses arising from the put choices they’d bought to the shale corporations and Mexico, producing a downward spiral. The suggestions loop is called a adverse gamma shock, for one of many Greek letters utilized by merchants to cost choices.
Whereas carnage unfold all through the derivatives market, OPEC+ officers had been taking consolation elsewhere: US refining margins, for instance, have remained very sturdy through the sell-off — proof that underlying demand stays wholesome. And the form of the Brent futures curve stayed stronger than in December when oil costs final fell sharply. Maybe, simply maybe, the decline is overdone.
OPEC+ officers consider that the derivatives market will stay turbulent for a while. However in the end, the power of the supply-and-demand imbalance anticipated within the second half of the yr ought to reassert itself, resulting in greater costs, or so the argument goes. For oil bulls, the following 10 to fifteen weeks will show troublesome, even when the cartel is true on its view about manufacturing and urge for food.
Extra regarding for OPEC+ is the truth that the second-half deficit could also be quite a bit shallower than is at present anticipated. Proper now, the Worldwide Power Company is forecasting that oil demand will outstrip provide by greater than 1 million barrels a day between July and September, and by greater than 1.5 million barrels from October to December. Thus far, so good for the oil cartel.
However that rosy forecast relies on a giant drop in Russian manufacturing that to date has did not materialize. Moscow pumped 11.4 million barrels a day in January, probably the most because it invaded Ukraine greater than a yr in the past. Thus far in March, there’s little or no signal of a big slowdown, regardless of the Kremlin saying a lower of 500,000 barrels a day for this month. Having constantly underestimated the power of Russian manufacturing for greater than a yr, the IEA is once more betting on an big output drop because the yr goes. By the third quarter, it expects Russian output to drop to simply 10.1 million barrels — a brave forecast.
If Russian oil manufacturing surprises to the upside once more, the anticipated market deficit within the second a part of the yr may halve. Nonetheless, provide would run under demand from July to December, forcing shoppers to attract their inventories. The true drawback for OPEC+ could be if international demand weakens as the banking bother morphs into an outright recession within the US and Europe.
OPEC+ due to this fact wants a number of issues to go in its favor. First, it requires that Vladimir Putin makes good on his pledge to chop Russian manufacturing — or that Western oil sanctions towards Moscow begin to drive output down. Second, it wants Chinese language and Indian crude consumption to not solely stay strong, however truly speed up because the yr progresses. And third, it wants that Western central banks can keep away from a tough touchdown, significantly in America.
There’s a fourth variable that may assist OPEC+. US shale manufacturing development was undermined final yr as drillers concentrate on returning money to shareholders fairly than boosting output. With WTI oil ahead costs for 2024 and 2025 properly under $65 a barrel, development might weaken even additional this yr. Ironic as it could be, OPEC+ might face stronger-than-expected manufacturing from Russia, certainly one of its members, and weaker-than anticipated from the US, its nemesis. That’s the lopsided world of oil.
A deficit within the second half of the yr stays probably — however it could even be smaller than the bulls hope. OPEC+ has its subsequent ministerial assembly scheduled for June in Vienna. However the group will take the heart beat of the market when a small group of ministers collect just about for the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee assembly on April 3. If wanted, OPEC+ might carry ahead that later gathering, and will begin jawboning the market. If that happens, it might be the primary signal that the “no panic” is shifting to “a bit frightened.”
Extra From Bloomberg Opinion:
• Biden Walks a Cliff Edge on Alaskan Oil: Liam Denning
• Aramco Mum on Spending Bumper Earnings: Components by Julian Lee
• Lengthy-Dated Oil Costs Are Too Low for Consolation: Javier Blas
This column doesn’t essentially replicate the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its homeowners.
Javier Blas is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist masking vitality and commodities. A former reporter for Bloomberg Information and commodities editor on the Monetary Instances, he’s coauthor of “The World for Sale: Cash, Energy and the Merchants Who Barter the Earth’s Sources.”
Extra tales like this can be found on bloomberg.com/opinion

Washington
Here's what we know about the 2 Israeli embassy staffers killed in Washington, D.C.

A man draped in the Israeli flag, bearing a cross and the name “Jesus” at its center, gestures as Metropolitan Police officers secure the area outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C. Two Israeli embassy staffers were shot dead late Wednesday by a gunman who allegedly shouted “free Palestine.”
Alex Wroblewski/AFP via Getty Images
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Alex Wroblewski/AFP via Getty Images
WASHINGTON — Two staff members from the Israeli embassy — a young couple about to be engaged — were shot and killed Wednesday night outside an event at a Jewish museum by a man who allegedly chanted “free, free Palestine” after he was detained by security officers.

Many U.S. and Israeli officials identified the attacks as the latest in a marked rise of antisemitic incidents in recent years — and more notably, as Israel ramps up its offensive in Gaza, where the risk of famine looms for a population ground down by a months-long blockade.
Israel’s foreign ministry identified the two victims of Wednesday night’s attack as Yaron Lischinsky, 30, and Sarah Lynn Milgrim, 26.
Speaking to reporters, Israel’s ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter said the pair was about to become engaged. “The young man purchased a ring this week with the intention of proposing to his girlfriend next week in Jerusalem,” he said.
Here’s what we know so far.
What happened?
Shortly after 9 p.m. ET, as an event for young diplomats hosted by the American Jewish Committee wrapped up at the Capital Jewish Museum in downtown D.C., a man was observed “pacing back and forth” outside the building, Metropolitan Police Chief Pamela Smith told reporters.

The man approached a group of four people, then opened fire, Smith said. Two people were killed — a man and woman who were a couple, officials said. Afterward, the shooter entered the museum and was detained by event security, Smith said.
“The suspect chanted ‘free, free Palestine’ while in custody,” Smith added. Police said they had tentatively identified the suspect as Elias Rodriguez, 31, of Chicago. He did not have any prior known encounters with police, Smith said. It was not immediately clear whether Rodriguez had legal representation.
Who were the victims?
26-year-old Sarah Milgrim was an American born in Kansas, and 30-year-old Yaron Lischinsky was originally from Germany but immigrated to Israel when he was 16, according to his LinkedIn profile. He held citizenship in both countries, according to both the Israeli and German governments.

This undated handout photo provided by the embassy of Israel in the U.S. shows staff members of the Israeli Embassy in Washington, Israeli citizen Yaron Lischinsky, right, and U.S. citizen Sarah Milgrim, who were shot and killed while leaving an event at a Jewish museum in Washington.
Embassy of Israel in the U.S./via AP
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Embassy of Israel in the U.S./via AP
“Sarah and Yaron were stolen from us,” said Ted Deutch, chief executive of the AJC, the organization behind the event the two were attending at the museum. “Moments before they were murdered, they were smiling, laughing, and enjoying an event with colleagues and friends. We are in shock and heartbroken as we attempt to process this immense tragedy.”
Milgrim worked in the embassy’s public diplomacy department, and Lischinsky was a researcher focused on the Middle East and North Africa region. On his LinkedIn profile, Lischinsky wrote that he was an “advocate for interfaith dialogue and intercultural understanding” between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

Milgrim grew up in Overland Park, a suburb of Kansas City, and was a member of a reform synagogue there, B’nai Jehudah. In a statement, the temple called Milgrim “a devoted Zionist and a radiant presence in every space she entered.”
“She stood for something larger than herself and she paid the ultimate price for it,” the statement said, calling for unity in the community in response to the attack.
Kansas City mayor Quinton Lucas posted on X about the attack, saying “People in our area know the pain of religious-based violence. We pray for its end.” A Jewish community center in Overland Park was the site of a 2014 shooting that killed three people and was later deemed a hate crime by law enforcement.
In a post on X, Shoval Ronen said that he taught Lischinsky at the Argaman Institute in Jerusalem, saying he was “a Christian, a great lover of Israel, who immigrated to Israel, served in the army, and decided to dedicate his life to the State of Israel and Zionism.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said he spoke with the parents of both victims, saying that he “shares in their great grief along with the entire people of Israel.”
Who is the suspect?
The suspect has been identified as Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, Ill.
He was taken into custody shortly after the shooting and was being interviewed early Thursday by D.C.’s Metropolitan Police Department as well as the FBI.
Rodriguez was born and raised in Chicago and resided in the northwest neighborhood of Albany Park, in an apartment on a quiet, leafy residential side street.
The windows of an apartment believed to be his were covered with political signs facing the street below. Some signs were for local politicians and causes, but several others addressed Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas. One called for a ceasefire, while another demanded “Free Palestine!” in handwritten letters and a third said “Justice for Wadea,” referring to six-year-old Wadea Al-Fayoume, a Palestinian-American who was stabbed to death in his home by his family’s landlord shortly after the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.
Rodriguez was an employee of the American Osteopathic Association. In a statement, the organization said it was “shocked and saddened” that an employee had been arrested as a suspect in the attack, and said it was fully cooperating with the investigation.
Steve Jensen, with the FBI’s Washington field office, called the shooting “a heinous crime.” The FBI is investigating “ties to potential terrorism or motivation based on a bias-based crime or a hate crime,” he said.
NPR’s Odette Yousef contributed to this report from Chicago, and NPR’s Jennifer Ludden contributed from Washington. Shir David contributed from Tel Aviv, Israel.
Washington
Match Forecast: Seattle Reign FC Set to Take on Washington Spirit on Friday — Seattle Reign FC

This Friday, the Reign are back home at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington to take on the Washington Spirit. It has been nearly a year since the fifth place Spirit and sixth place Reign have gone head-to-head.
WHEN AND WHERE: Kickoff is at 7:00 p.m. PT at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.
WHERE TO WATCH: Fans can tune in on Prime Video or get tickets to attend the match in person HERE.
2025 NWSL REGULAR SEASON RECORDS AND STANDINGS (W-L-D): Seattle Reign FC: 4-3-2 (14 points, 6th place), Washington Spirit: 5-3-1 (16 points, 5th place)
Key Info Ahead of the Match:
1. LAST MEETING – The Reign and Spirit last met in May 2024 at Audi Field in Washington, D.C. The match got off to a rough start for the Reign, who conceded three goals in the first 45 minutes of play. In the dying minutes of the first half, the Reign pulled one goal back. Defender Phoebe McClernon crossed a ball into the box and forward Veronica Latsko headed it into the back of the net.
In the second half, the Reign held the home side to zero goals and scored one of their own, once against in stoppage time. This time, veteran midfielder Jess Fishlock earned the assist on forward Emeri Adames’s volley.
All time, the Reign lead the head-to-head series with 14 wins, 10 losses and eight draws, and have outscored the Spirit 47-36.
2. SCOUTING WASHINGTON SPIRIT – The Washington Spirit are just one spot ahead of the Reign in the NWSL standings, with five wins, three losses and one draw. The team most recently took on Utah Royals FC at Audi Field and drew 3-3, recording their first draw of the 2025 season.
The Spirit conceded a goal just nine minutes into the match but quickly found their footing and equalized in the 17th minute on a strike from forward Ashley Hatch, before taking the lead in the 19th minute when midfielder Meg Boade scored her first career goal. Three minutes later, Utah pulled level and then retook the lead on a Spirt own goal before halftime. It wasn’t until 12 minutes into second half stoppage time that defender Casey Krueger managed to score for Washington and salvage a point from the match.
3. FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS – Lumen Field will play host to a variety of activations on Friday night for this can’t-miss match. The club is set to celebrate AANHPI Heritage around the stadium, with special performances, local AANHPI-owned food trucks and more!
The club is also excited to welcome our Healthcare Heroes out to the match with this special promotional offer, featuring an exclusive crossbody bag.
Once you’re in the stadium, there are family friendly games, poster making stations and more, and an additional opportunity to socialize with other Reign fans at Cityside bar. Hear from Reign FC Chief Business Officer Maya Mendoza-Exstrom, Founder of Intentionalist Laura Clise and Co-Owner of Hood Famous Chera Amlag.
4. SCORELESS IN SEATTLE – Seattle Reign and the Washington Spirit have a long history of heated meetings since 2013, including several high stakes matches. Prior to the Spirit’s narrow victory last May, the teams had played to three straight scoreless draws in all competitions in Seattle. Washington is the only opponent Seattle has kept four straight home clean sheets against in all competitions in club history.
This season, the Reign have conceded just three total goals at Lumen Field and recorded two shutouts, while the Spirit have recorded a dominant 4-0-0 record on the road this season.
5. PLAYERS TO WATCH – For the Reign, it’s no secret that forward Maddie Dahlien has been a rising star in the final third, most recently scoring her second career goal to propel the Reign past Racing Louisville FC. The forward took three shots in the match, directing all three on target. She leads the league in shot accuracy among players who have taken at least five shots, putting 83% of those shots on target. On defense, Phoebe McClernon remains a crucial part of the backline with a 92% tackle success rate.
For Washington, defender Tara McKeown has been strong all season, holding down the backline while also contributing one goal to the Spirit’s 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, forward Ashley Hatch is tied for second amongst goalscorers in the league, with five goals in nine games, in addition to one assist.
Washington
Navy Yard residents call to lower DC's youth curfew

Some residents in D.C.’s Navy Yard neighborhood have begun an aggressive push to lower the District’s youth curfew to 8 p.m., or even earlier, after dozens of teenagers, and even younger children, swarmed the area Saturday.
There were reports of fights, disorderly conduct, two alleged robberies and some of the participants even made their way onto the upper floors of some apartment buildings.
“Summer hasn’t even begun yet,” said Advisory Neighborhood Commissioner Edward Daniels, whose district includes parts of Navy Yard. “Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer, is this coming weekend. We’ve seen this twice in three weeks.”
He said what happened around 9 p.m. Saturday night on top of a similar event in April warrants a change in the District’s curfew law. Currently, those 17 and under cannot be on the streets without an adult between midnight and 6 a.m.
“As parents, because I’m a parent of a teen, you have to make the executive decision for safety,” said Advisory Neighborhood Commissioner Markita Bryant, who also represents parts of the Navy Yard neighborhood. “We saw what was happening down at the Wharf, and they implemented an 8 p.m. curfew. Now it’s Navy Yard and U Street left, so what do we do? I recommend we have a curfew down here.”
Bryant said constituents told her some of the teens made their way past security at apartment buildings and were running through the upper floors. She called on parents to take accountability.
“What I saw was that parents knew where their children were because they picked them up at the end of the night,” she said.
Resident Carolette Sweatt said she believes the solution requires a multi-layered approach.
“The schools are the target area, and that’s our link to find the families that have troubles or that have barriers that are stopping them,” she said.
Curfew regulations, and any changes to them, must be approved by the D.C. Council.
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