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Analysis | A banner 12 hours for the GOP and Trump

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Analysis | A banner 12 hours for the GOP and Trump


In the 10 o’clock Eastern hour Thursday night, a realization began to set in among Democrats: They were witnessing an event that significantly imperils their hold on the White House, in President Biden’s poor and often incoherent debate performance. In the 10 o’clock hour Friday morning came a pair of Supreme Court decisions that compounded their misery.

It was a banner 12 hours for the American political right, the likes of which we’ve rarely seen in recent years.

But how good was it for them — and bad for the left?

To recap, Biden’s debate performance immediately led to significant fretting on the left about his ability to carry the torch forward, even leading some to float replacing him on the ballot at August’s Democratic National Convention. That was followed by the Supreme Court on Friday morning: 1) delivering a significant setback to the government’s prosecutions of Donald Trump allies over the Jan. 6 insurrection, and 2) delivering conservatives a long-awaited win overturning crucial four-decade-old precedent in the Chevron vs. Natural Resources Defense Council case.

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The final event might actually be the most significant and long-lasting. The Supreme Court overturned a 1984 precedent that said courts should largely defer to federal agency officials in interpreting laws. That sounds technical and obscure, but the ruling could be massive. It could severely hamper the ability of the government to do things like combat climate change and regulate big business, shrinking the role of government and experts in American life.

The impact of the Jan. 6 decision is more nuanced, but it’s significant both practically and politically. Basically, the court ruled that the government used a federal law — obstructing or impeding an official proceeding — too broadly in charging a Jan. 6 defendant. That same law has been used against hundreds of other Jan. 6 defendants, including Trump himself.

The Justice Department quickly sought to downplay the ruling. It noted that 82 percent of more than 1,400 Jan. 6 defendants weren’t charged with or haven’t been convicted of that particular crime. It also noted that just 2 percent of those currently serving prison sentences were convicted of that crime and no other felony. The implication: This isn’t about to free a bunch of prisoners.

It could also have limited impact on Trump personally, given he’s charged with other Jan. 6-related offenses. But it’s still a massive headache with untold consequences.

Perhaps as significantly, though, it gave Trump rare, actual political ammunition in his years-long effort to downplay Jan. 6 and accuse the government of going too far in prosecuting him and his supporters.

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Trump’s claims about the “weaponization” of the justice system and his proposal to pardon Jan. 6 defendants haven’t really caught on beyond his base. But it’s a decision he can use to make those cases, the former of which has largely rested on conspiracy theories and misleading claims. The Supreme Court effectively said the government has gone too far, at least in one case. And notably, the Supreme Court’s majority in the case included liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (though Jackson suggested the ruling shouldn’t spare too many Jan. 6 defendants from their charges).

That doesn’t mean Trump will be able to completely flip the script or anything close to it; these are complicated issues that won’t have much immediate fallout. But it’s certainly a foothold he didn’t have before.

The impact of Thursday night’s debate will come into focus more quickly as we get polling that gauges just how much damage Biden might have done to himself.

We’ve so far got limited data, including two snap polls showing about twice as many people said Trump won the debate as said Biden did. This includes CNN polling, which in 2020 had shown the opposite: Biden lapping Trump in those debates. The CNN poll also showed debate-watchers’ favorable views of Biden dropping by six points (to just 31 percent) and favorable views of Trump rising by three points (to 43 percent).

We’ll see what happens, but those are inauspicious early signs for a Democratic Party that had already been panicky about its 2024 chances. And the performance can’t help but drive home already-prevalent voter concerns about Biden’s age and mental sharpness; it was practically an hour-and-a-half-long advertisement for Republicans about what is arguably Biden’s biggest liability.

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Should Biden’s polls indeed take a turn for the worse, it’s likely we’ll see an even more earnest discussion about turning the page on him. But that discussion itself would be fraught for the party.

Which means the blows could keep coming.



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Washington state takes stock of flooding damage as another atmospheric river looms

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Washington state takes stock of flooding damage as another atmospheric river looms


And while the river did see record flows at Mount Vernon, both the dikes and a downtown floodwall held up. The city isn’t out of the woods yet — Ezelle said the Skagit could return to a major flood stage next week.

In the nearby town of Burlington, the river did overtop a slough off the Skagit. Officials sent a warning early Friday morning to evacuate for all 11,000 Burlington residents as some neighborhoods and roadways flooded, though not all of them ultimately needed to leave.

“In the middle of the night, about a thousand people had to flee their homes in a really dire situation,” Gov. Bob Ferguson said in a news conference on Friday afternoon.

The flood event has set records across Washington state and it prompted officials to ask about 100,000 people to evacuate this week, forced dozens of rescues and caused widespread destruction of roads and other infrastructure.

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Washington state is prone to intense spells of fall rainfall, but these storms have been exceptional. The atmospheric rivers this week dumped as much as 16 inches of rain in Washington’s Cascade mountains over about three days, according to National Weather Service data.

Because many rivers and streams were already running high and the soil was already saturated, the water tore through lowland communities. The Skagit River system is the third biggest on the U.S. west coast, and at Mount Vernon, this is the highest the river has ever run in recorded history.

“There has been no reported loss of life at this time,” Ferguson said. “The situation is very dynamic, but we’re exceedingly grateful.”

Flooding on Francis Road in Skagit County, Wash. on Friday.Evan Bush / NBC News

By Friday afternoon, while many roadways near Burlington remained closed, parts of downtown bustled with car traffic, as national guardsmen were waving people away from road closures and curious residents were out snapping photos of the swollen Skagit. Downstream, in the town of Conway, a tree trunk and the metal siding of a trailer could be seen racing away in the current.

The dramatic week of flooding sets the stage for a difficult recovery, in a growing state that’s already struggling to provide shelter to homeless residents. It’s not clear how many homes have been damaged, but neighborhoods in dozens of towns and cities took on water. Recovery won’t be quick — after flooding in 2021, some residents who lost their homes were displaced for months.

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President Donald Trump on Friday signed the state’s request for an expedited emergency declaration, which will enable people to seek individual assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency for things like temporary housing and home repairs. The measure will also allow state and local governments to seek federal assistance to remove debris and repair roads, bridges, water facilities and other infrastructure.

The Trump administration has made suggestions it would overhaul FEMA and prove less disaster relief to states. In left-leaning Washington, the president’s pen to paper offered another an initial sigh of relief.

“One of the challenges that we’ve had with the administration in the past is that they don’t really want to do longer term recovery,” said Rep. Rick Larsen, who represents Burlington and Mount Vernon. In an interview with NBC News, Larsen added that the declaration was “an indication that they understand how disastrous this particular disaster is and we’re not out of it yet.”

Atmospheric river brings rain and flooding to the Pacific Northwest
Rescue crews evacuate a person and two dogs from flooding in Burlington, Wash. on Friday.David Ryder / REUTERS

The next atmospheric river storm on tap will likely arrive Sunday night.

Jeff Michalski, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Seattle, said a few days of dry weather will allow most rivers to recede, before they begin to swell again on Tuesday, as the rainfall pulses downstream.

Lowland parts of western Washington will receive about an inch of rain during the storm; the mountains could get up to three.

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“It could possibly either prolong flooding or cause renewed flooding on some of the rivers,” Michalski said. “A few rivers may bump back into flood stage moving into the Tuesday, Wednesday time frame, but we’re not expecting widespread major flood levels like we have seen.”

Heavy Rain Brings Historic Flooding To Pacific Northwest
The Snohomish River is seen spilling beyond its banks on Friday in Snohomish, Wash.Natalie Behring / Getty Images

After Wednesday, the forecast calls for more rain in lowland Washington and heavy snow in the Cascades.

“It does not let up,” Michalski said.

Ferguson said the situation would remain “dynamic and unpredictable” over the next week.

“This is not just a one- or two- day crisis. These water levels have been historic and they’re going to remain very high for an extended period of time,” Ferguson said. “That puts pressure on our infrastructure. The infrastructure has, for the most part, withstood the challenge so far.”



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Portland State tabs Division II coach to take over football program

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Portland State tabs Division II coach to take over football program


Less than three weeks after firing longtime football head coach Bruce Barnum, Portland State has found a replacement in an attempt to revive the struggling program.

The school reached an agreement this week with Central Washington head coach Chris Fisk, a source close to the program confirmed. The Wildcats went 48-22 in Fisk’s four-year tenure and reached the Division II playoffs each of the last three years.

He was expected to meet with his players in Ellensburg Friday morning.

Originally from Pocatello, Idaho, Fisk was previously the co-offensive coordinator and coached the offensive line at CWU. He held the same role at NAIA Southern Oregon from 2011-15.

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Fisk was among 12 candidates who interviewed for the position, with Fisk emerging quickly as teh favorite.

He is expected to be introduced at Portland State early next week.

Central Washington finished 10-2 this season, including a 9-0 mark in the Lone Star Conference to win the 10-team league. Last month, the American Football Coaches Association honored Fisk as the Division II Super Region 4 Coach of the Year.  

The 48-year-old Fisk steps into the position with a mountain of challenges ahead of him. The obstacles facing Portland State football have been well-told, from their lack of resources to playing home games nearly 15 miles from campus at Hillsboro Stadium.

Fisk will also face fundraising challenges, especially in the age of NIL and revenue sharing — areas that PSU has admittedly lagged.

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His predecessor, Barnum, went 39-75 in 11 seasons, posting a winning record just once. Barnum often lamented the school’s need to play multiple “money” games each season against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to subsidize costs.

This fall, the Vikings went 1-11, with their lone win coming on Nov. 1 at Cal Poly. Barnum was fired on Nov. 22 with one year and $210,000 remaining on his contract.

It was not immediately clear how much Fisk will earn in his first season, but the salary is expected to be similar to that of Barnum.

Fisk is the second head coach hired by athletic director Matt Billings since he ascended to athletic director last winter. In April, he tabbed former Portland Pilots star Karlie Burris to lead the women’s basketball program.



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Dulles passenger hurt after getting stuck in baggage claim equipment

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Dulles passenger hurt after getting stuck in baggage claim equipment


A passenger got stuck in baggage claim equipment at Washington Dulles International Airport on Thursday morning and is hurt, authorities say.

The adult made “an unauthorized entry into the baggage delivery system” and got trapped, the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority said.

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The person needed to be freed by fire and rescue crews and was taken to a hospital at about 9 a.m.

No information was immediately released on how the person got stuck in the equipment or the extent of their injuries.

‘Crashed into a wall at speed’: Traveler describes Dulles mobile lounge accident

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Dulles police officers out after criminal, administrative investigations

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Trump says he’s rebuilding Dulles airport while his administration is fixing the ‘people movers’

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The emergency comes a week after President Donald Trump said his administration will rebuild the airport, which he called “terrible.”

Last month, a mobile lounge at the airport crashed into a concourse dock, sending 18 people to the hospital. One man told News4 he got a concussion after the people mover shuttle “crashed into a wall at speed.”

New legislation would return airspace regulations around Reagan National Airport to where they were before the midair collision. Transportation Reporter Adam Tuss explains.

Stay with NBC Washington for more details on this developing story.



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