The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery results will be revealed on Monday, May 12th, at 5 p.m. MT. As you all know, this will be a monumental evening for the Utah Jazz and what the future of Jazz basketball could look like. 

Armed with the maximum 14% odds of getting the first pick, the Jazz are hoping for some serious luck. They’re one of the few teams that have never picked first in the draft, something they’re hoping changes soon.

The reality of the lottery is that the Jazz have a realistic chance of landing anywhere in the first five picks of this draft. So, just how big are the drop-offs between each pick? Let’s talk about it.

The Jazz getting the first overall pick in this draft would be one of the most exciting events in this franchise’s history. For those who have been living under a rock, Cooper Flagg is a terrific prospect. He’s truly one of the best basketball prospects to come through the ranks in the past twenty years.

Aside from the short-term excitement of landing Flagg, it would bring a lot of long-term hope to a Jazz team that needs it. While they’ve constantly been successful, the Jazz have lacked a guy capable of being the best player on a championship team since Karl Malone left. While there’s no guarantee Flagg becomes that guy, you’d at least have hope.

While Flagg is the grand prize, there are two consolation prizes in this draft class for me. Dylan Harper, the consensus number two overall pick, is certainly one of them. He’s a jumbo guard who can get to the rim at will and is continuing to develop as a playmaker and shooter. He’d give the Jazz a foundational guard to build their offense around for years to come.

Next, Ace Bailey, a polarizing eighteen-year-old prospect, is one of the most gifted shotmakers you’ll ever find. With excellent size and athleticism on the wing, Bailey would bring all the tools and unique scoring upside to be a perennial all-star if he hits his ceiling. With Will Hardy’s creative offensive schemes, the Jazz and Bailey seem like a great match.

Getting either of the Rutgers prospects would be a successful outcome to get this team rolling towards a bright future.

Every year, some prospects prove they should have gone earlier than they did. There is undoubtedly going to be talent on the board if the Jazz slide to fourth or fifth in the standings, but after the worst season in franchise history, it would be a disappointment.

VJ Edgecombe and Tre Johnson are the widely projected picks in this range. While they’re both shooting guards, they are vastly different players.

Edgecombe is an otherworldly athlete who defends and has a budding offensive game. Johnson is a pure scorer who can fill it up from the perimeter in bunches. While either would instantly become the best prospect on the team, neither projects to be a franchise-changing talent, something the Jazz desperately need.

While the Jazz will likely continue to be patient with their rebuild, sliding out of the top three will all but force the team to turn their eyes toward the 2026 NBA Draft in hopes of finding a foundational player then.

Here’s to hoping the odds are in our favor.