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Texas general election matchups are finally set. Here’s what you need to know

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Texas general election matchups are finally set. Here’s what you need to know

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at an election night watch party held by the Lone Star Liberty PAC Tuesday in Plano, Texas. Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in a Senate primary runoff election and will face Democrat James Talarico in the November general election.

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President Trump’s stamp was all over Tuesday’s Texas primary runoff results as his pick for Republican Senate nominee, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, toppled Sen. John Cornyn, and his endorsed candidates proceeded to the general election in other races up and down the ballot.

But Democrats put their mark on this race too, even without a marquee race like the Senate primary, which was decided in March. Ousting longtime Democratic Rep. Al Green was the first sign that voters are ready for something new in Washington — and that Texas Republicans’ redistricting hopes might be working out.

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Here are four takeaways from Texas’ primary runoffs.

Ken Paxton v. James Talarico sets up expensive Senate race

Texas held one of the first Senate primaries on March 3. Now that the general election matchup is set, though, don’t expect to stop hearing about it. With Paxton’s win on Tuesday night, the Senate seat in Texas became much more competitive than it would have been had Cornyn won. Cook Political Report moved the race from rated as Likely Republican to Lean Republican just moments after the race had been called Tuesday night.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll from mid-April that tested the matchup between each Republican candidate and the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico found that Talarico came out ahead of each Republican by roughly the same amount.

But more importantly, nearly 1 in 5 voters polled had not made their minds up in the race between a Republican and Talarico. While some of that support will likely solidify given Trump’s endorsement of Paxton and his win in the primary, that still leaves a lot of voters up for grabs.

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The Texas Senate race is already the second most expensive race in the country this year, after the California governor election. According to NPR’s partners at AdImpact, overall, more than $108 million has been spent on that one race this year. Republicans spent almost $75 million of that.

The most recent quarterly campaign finance data shows Talarico has built a significant war chest of his own and he has not had to spend anything as Paxton and Cornyn battled it out. Texas has long been a dream for Democrats, even though one has not won statewide here since 1994 — it’s been even longer than that for a Democratic Senate nominee.

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a campaign rally on March 2 in Houston, Texas.

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a campaign rally on March 2 in Houston, Texas.

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The Talarico/Paxton race gives Democrats their best hope in a long time. But the party often gets ahead of itself in Texas, which is still a solidly red state with Republicans controlling pretty much everything in Austin. Remember, those same Republicans drew the map that led to some of the congressional runoffs seen Tuesday night.

Turnout is really going to matter in November

It’s a cliche, right? It will all come down to turnout in Texas. In Tuesday’s primary, NPR’s Senior Political Editor and Correspondent Domenico Montanaro crunched the numbers. Paxton saw a decisive victory — his race call came right as polls closed statewide which is a sign that he was so far ahead there was no mathematical way for Cornyn to catch up.

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But the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff had a lot fewer voters to contend with. In 2022, Greg Abbott won the Republican primary for governor outright — no runoff — with a similar margin that Paxton enjoyed over Cornyn. He got 1.2 million votes. Paxton has significantly fewer than a million.

Republicans have seen this kind of lackluster turnout in primaries across the country and despite high profile races. Meanwhile, Democrats have been showing up in 2026 in a big way, starting in Texas. So if Republicans cannot appeal to voters more than the couch and Democrats continue to enjoy this enthusiasm, Texas may see more than a few blue cracks in its red wall.

Democratic voters are asking for new leaders

It is a tough time to be a long-serving Democrat incumbent in Congress. Several of those incumbents will be tested by better-funded challengers in California on June 2 but one, Rep. Al Green, who has represented part of Houston for more than 20 years, lost to fellow incumbent, Rep. Christian Menefee, in the newly redrawn 18th Congressional District.

But Green was also targeted by Texas redistricting which drew part of his original district, including his home, into the 18th. His current district, the 9th, is now a solidly Republican seat in the new map.

Rep. Christian Menefee, D-Texas, smiles during his swearing-in ceremony at the U.S. Capitol on February 2, 2026 in Washington, D.C.

Rep. Christian Menefee, D-Texas, smiles during his swearing-in ceremony at the U.S. Capitol on February 2, 2026 in Washington, D.C.

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Another incumbent, Rep. Julie Johnson, also lost Tuesday to a familiar face. Former Rep. Colin Allred challenged her for the nomination. Johnson replaced Allred in the House when he left to run against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024. Now, he’ll likely retake the newly renumbered, safe blue seat in November.

Democrats did manage to avoid nominating a controversial pick in the somewhat competitive 35th Congressional District. Maureen Galindo drew criticism after she made antisemitic comments but ultimately lost Tuesday.

Still, Democrats may have to pin their hopes on the Senate race. Both of the most competitive House seats in November are already being held by Democrats and pickup opportunities look less and less likely.

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Republicans are forecast to win 3-5 seats House seats in Texas alone, and Trump’s influence over the Republican Party led to victories for several of his endorsed candidates. In the 9th Congressional District — a prime Republican pickup opportunity — and the aforementioned 35th, the candidates Trump endorsed won. In both cases, they beat Republicans backed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

The YOLO caucus gets its newest member … maybe 

When Cornyn delivered his concession speech Tuesday evening, he did not mention Paxton by name, but he said he remained committed to the Republican Party.

“There’s a simple rule in elections. You’ve heard me say it before, and that is the candidate who gets the most votes wins. The party in the majority gets to govern. And my hope is to keep my party in power for generations,” Cornyn said.

The generally mild-mannered lawmaker is the newest potential member of what NPR is calling the “YOLO caucus” in Congress. Shorthand for “you only live once,” the slang is used to signal things that you might not do in normal circumstances. In this case, Cornyn joins the likes of fellow Republicans defeated by Trump-backed challengers, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a fellow YOLO caucus-er, chose not to run for reelection this year rather than face Trump’s wrath.

With narrow margins in both the House and the Senate, just a few lawmakers who want to burn it all to the ground on the way out the door could change things entirely for the president’s legislative agenda. Trump may have sacrificed his policy hopes for political wins in party primaries. The candidates he has backed in more competitive general election matchups are not always the most popular to the wider electorate.

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But Cornyn hasn’t signaled what he’ll do with his final seven months in office, keeping it vague in his concession speech.

“I intend to continue my work to help make this nation a better place for all Texans and all Americans.”

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Supreme Court Justices give chilling accounts of threats to their safety

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Supreme Court Justices give chilling accounts of threats to their safety

Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan and Amy Coney Barrett testify before the House Appropriations Committee on Capitol Hill on July 14, 2026 in Washington, D.C.

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The Supreme Court did something Tuesday that it has not done in seven years. It sent two of the justices to Capitol Hill to testify about the court’s budget request for the coming year. The budget has grown dramatically in recent years because of the equally dramatic rise in the number and intensity of threats to the justices’ safety.

Designated as the court’s representatives were Justice Elena Kagan, appointed by President Obama, and Justice Amy Coney Barrett, appointed by President Trump.

As Kagan pointed out in her testimony, it was Republican Darrell Issa and Democrat Elijah Cummings who insisted that the court beef up its security ten years ago after Justice Antonin Scalia died in his sleep on a hunting trip, with no security anywhere nearby to respond quickly.  

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“They said, kind of like, we think you’re crazy, you know, that that you have less security than director of the Office of Personnel Management does,” she recounted the Congressmen as telling the Court, “and we think that you have to do better.”

Before that, the justices basically had little to no security. They drove their own cars to work; went to the movies and shopped at supermarkets unaccompanied, and did their private travel on their own. And frankly, they liked it that way, because having security is personally invasive.

In recent years, however, the court has undertaken major changes, including continually expanding the court police force to protect the justices and their homes at all times, and funding additional cybersecurity measures.

And yet, as Justice Kagan pointed out, the Court’s $207 million budget request is less than one tenth of one percent of the entire federal budget.

The justices spoke at length Tuesday about how rising threats impacted their lives. Justice Barrett came prepared with two harrowing stories. First was the day she brought home a bullet-proof vest. 

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“My 12-year-old son was standing in the doorway of my bedroom and he wanted to know what it was,” she testified, “and I didn’t know how to respond. I didn’t expect that performing this service was going to put me in the position of explaining to my children what a bulletproof vest was and why I had to wear one.”

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Mexico files criminal complaints in US over migrant deaths in custody

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Mexico files criminal complaints in US over migrant deaths in custody


Mexico has begun filing criminal complaints with state prosecutors in the United States over the deaths of its citizens in U.S. immigration custody and during enforcement operations, the foreign mini

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MEXICO CITY, July 13 (Reuters) – Mexico has begun filing criminal complaints with state prosecutors in the United States over the deaths of its citizens in U.S. immigration custody and during enforcement operations, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

Mexico’s government has also sent cease-and-desist letters to U.S. detention centers where Mexican nationals have died, the ministry added in a statement.

The filings follow the deaths of at least 14 Mexican nationals in ICE custody and several others during arrest operations, including the recent fatal shooting of a Mexican citizen by an ICE agent in Houston.

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President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Mexico’s intention to escalate its response to the deaths last Friday, as she claimed that the government “cannot turn a blind eye to the Mexicans who have died.”

In addition to the measures in the U.S., Mexico’s foreign minister also contacted the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights regarding the deaths of Mexican nationals in ICE custody.

Mexico expects the U.N. office to gather information from U.S. authorities, analyze the events and “refer the case to the relevant special procedures of the Human Rights Council,” the statement added.

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A guard punched him on camera. It was still nearly impossible for him to sue

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A guard punched him on camera. It was still nearly impossible for him to sue

Michelle Mildenberg Lara for The Marshall Project

This much is undisputed: On Nov. 2, 2023, a guard and a prisoner at a federal penitentiary in California got into it over a straw sunhat that the officer had confiscated. The man — identified in court records by his initials, J.M. — walked out of the office, as Officer Sandra Munagay followed him. When he stopped and turned around, Munagay “cocked back … and punched me in my face,” he said in an interview. That is on camera. Munagay admitted to the assault and pleaded guilty this January to falsifying records about it.

But the more severe harm came after, J.M. said, in a hallway without security cameras. As Munagay kicked and hit him, she shouted to other officers that J.M. had attacked her. According to a lawsuit, at least three other guards then rushed in, forced him into a blind spot, and pinned him face-first to a wall. With J.M.’s hands cuffed, he says an officer then sexually assaulted him with an unknown object.

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That night, J.M. was transferred to another prison, where a nurse noted bleeding and tenderness in his rectum, medical records show. That gave J.M. more proof than most people behind bars in his situation.

But guards still had near-total control over whether he could file a complaint, or someday sue over what happened to him. J.M. knew they could destroy his paperwork, claim it got lost, or simply deny him the forms he needed. And like he had experienced in other federal prisons, he says, they might punish him for even trying to speak out.

It’s the same dilemma presented to anyone who faces violence in federal prison: Try to file an administrative grievance and risk opening yourself up to retaliation — or stay quiet, endure the abuse, and forgo your chance to someday bring your case to court.

Under federal law, people in prison must go through the facility’s own grievance process before they can attempt to sue. That gives prison staff a “chokehold over access to the courts,” said Colin Prince, a civil rights attorney and former federal defender who is representing J.M. in his lawsuit.

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“The guards functionally have power over whether a prisoner can sue them for their own misconduct,” he said. “The entire system is layer upon layer of bureaucratic insulation against accountability. It simply prevents prisoners from getting access to the courts.”

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