One of the Big Ten’s new conference matchups kicks off this Friday night as No. 2 Oregon hits the road against Purdue in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from the expert football model that picks winners.

Oregon is coming off the signature win of head coach Dan Lanning’s tenure, edging Ohio State by a single point a week ago, moving to 6-0 overall and a statement 3-0 mark in Big Ten play.

Purdue is on a 5-game losing streak, although it came within a point of upsetting ranked Illinois in overtime last weekend, but still ranks 101st nationally in scoring offense and 109th in passing output, although a quarterback change to Ryan Browne could boost those averages, as he threw for nearly 300 yards last week.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the Ducks are big favorites against the Boilermakers by the model’s calculations.

Oregon is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 95.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 4.9 percent of sims.

The index also suggests a comfortable margin for the Ducks on the scoreboard in this game.

Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Ducks to cover a big spread against the Boilermakers.

That’s because Oregon is a 27.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning it would need to win by 4 touchdowns to cover the line.

FanDuel set the total at 60.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Oregon at -3000 and for Purdue at +1300 to win outright.

A slight majority of bets currently suggest the Ducks will dominate the Boilermakers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 55 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 45 percent of wagers forecast that Purdue will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score within 4 touchdowns in a loss.

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with an 84.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Purdue a win total prediction of 1.7 games, the lowest mark in the Big Ten, and a 0 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.

The index forecasts that Oregon is 19.2 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, according to its latest calculations.

But it estimates that Purdue is 9.7 points worse than opponents in a similar setting, one of four Big Ten teams to come out in negative numbers in that category.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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The top uncommitted defensive lineman in the 2025 recruiting class, five-star Jahkeem Stewart, had a front row seat for when Oregon fans stormed the field after the Oregon Ducks beat the Ohio State Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium.

After his official visit with his family to Eugene this past Saturday, it’s become clear that Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s program is securely in the mix to secure Stewart’s commitment.

“I can definitely see myself playing in that type of environment. The Oregon fans showed me a ton of love.”

– 2025 defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart

Stewart is also considering LSU, Ohio State and Alabama. While the On3 Prediction gives LSU at 94.6 percent chance to land the elite recruit, On3 Vice President Steve Wiltfong has intel that says otherwise.

“There is a lot of people around the state of Louisiana that think he ultimately will end up at LSU,” Wiltfong said. “But my intel on Jahkeem Stewart, talking to people in his camp, USC and Ohio State are the programs that I feel like have been in the lead for a lot of this process but Oregon has hung around in this recruitment.”

“He has called Dan Lanning a ‘defensive genius.’ He got to come out to Autzen Stadium and soak in that atmosphere.” Wiltfong continued. “He said he saw everything he needed to see… I think coming out of this visit, Oregon has a great chance to land Jahkeem Stewart.”

The Reserve, Louisiana product will take an official visit to LSU as Stewart will be attending the SEC showdown vs. Alabama on Nov. 9. He also does still have upcoming trips to visit USC as the Trojans host Nebraska on Nov. 16 and visit Ohio State in the highly anticipated Michigan matchup on Nov. 30.

“Oregon really set the ton for what an official visit should look like. Him and his family and his camp had a fabulous time and Oregon continues to be a major contender,” Wiltfong said.

Oregon has set the tone for what an official visit should look like by entertaining not only Stewart through a historic victory but his entire family and camp who came along as well. The Ducks are in a truly solid spot for the elite defensive lineman.

“He saw everything he needed to see. From the way Tosh Lupoi runs the defense and coaches the defensive line from the great seats where he was able to watch, observe the way that Oregon’s coaches work with the players throughout the game.”

– On3 Vice President Steve Wiltfong

During his 2023 season, Stewart finished his sophomore campaign at New Orleans Saint Augustine in Louisiana with 85 tackles, 33 tackles for losses and 20 sacks. The No. 14 overall prospect then decided to reclassify to the Class of 2025 and transfer to Edna Karr in New Orleans, Louisiana.

“Enormous-framed front-line defender with impressive linear athleticism and immense growth potential… Capable pass rusher from the interior and the edge, thanks in part to hand violence and point-of-attack power. Elite young defensive line prospect given outstanding physical tools and promising movement ability who could become a serious NFL Draft candidate down the road.”

– 247 Sports Scouting Analyst Gabe Brooks

MORE: Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes Officiating Being Called Into Question

MORE: Oregon Ducks Impress 5-Star Defensive Line Recruit Jahkeem Stewart on Visit to Eugene

MORE: What Ohio State Coach Ryan Day Said After Loss to Oregon Ducks: Officiating ‘Cost Us’

MORE: Did Oregon Ducks’ Dan Lanning Intentionally Commit Penalty During Ohio State Game?

MORE: Oregon Ducks’ Traeshon Holden Apologizes To Ohio State, Teammates, Fans For Ejection

MORE: Oregon Ducks, Ohio State: Deafening Autzen Stadium Breaks Attendance Record

A lot of political changes are coming to Portland, Oregon.

The open mayoral race in the state’s most populous city features 19 candidates — all vying to lead after years of growing frustration over homeless encampments. Among them: three City Council members, including one ensnared in a driving record scandal; a stripper; and a trucking company CEO vowing to end unsheltered homelessness in 12 months.

The race was thrown open when Mayor Ted Wheeler decided against seeking reelection after holding the city’s top post since 2017. Wheeler rose to national prominence in 2020 as nightly protests erupted on Portland streets and around the country in response to the the police killing of George Floyd.

Whoever wins the mayoral seat will oversee a completely new system of government. Portland is expanding its City Council from five to 12 members, who will be elected by voters in individual districts rather than citywide, and adding a city manager position. And all the candidates — including the nearly 100 running for the new council seats — will be elected by ranked-choice voting for the first time.

Changing Portland’s charter had been on the ballot before, but failed until voters approved the overhaul in 2022. The most recent charter review kicked off amid the 2020 protests and a nationwide reckoning with racism that prompted conversations about making government more accountable and equitable.

Opening the door for more diversity

Numerous candidates of color are now running for the new council seats and mayor in the majority-white city. But it’s still unclear how voters, and those elected, will navigate the new system and its logistics.

“I don’t think that anyone has a really clear sense of exactly how things are going to work immediately after this election,” said Chris Shortell, associate professor of political science at Portland State University.

There are a few constants in this year’s campaign, however — concerns over homelessness and public drug use. Surveys conducted over the past few years have shown that Portland residents view homelessness as a top issue, said John Horvick, senior vice president of polling firm DHM Research.

“The key issues remain the key issues,” said Horvick. “Those continue to be the organizing principles of Portland politics and will certainly be through this election and beyond.”

City council members Rene Gonzalez and Carmen Rubio have led in fundraising among the mayoral candidates, along with Keith Wilson, whose freight company includes electric trucks. They’ve presented different visions for reducing homelessness in a metro area where a January 2023 count found nearly 4,000 people living unsheltered.

Differing approaches to homelessness

Gonzalez, who is endorsed by law enforcement groups, pressured Multnomah County, home to Portland, to pause giving tents and tarps to homeless people. He has pushed for stricter enforcement of anti-camping rules.

Rubio has called for more outreach workers and improved coordination between the players in the homelessness response system, such as shelters and social service groups.

Wilson, who founded a nonprofit working to increase homeless shelter capacity, has pledged to end unsheltered homelessness in his first year on the job. His campaign website says he’ll accomplish this ambitious goal in part by increasing the number of nighttime walk-in emergency shelters in existing facilities such as churches and community centers.

The three leading fundraisers are followed by City Council member Mingus Mapps, as well as Liv Østhus, a writer, musician and stripper whose stage name is Viva Las Vegas.

Mapps, whose campaign has struggled to gain momentum, is hoping to become Portland’s first Black mayor. If either he, or Rubio or Gonzalez — who have Latino heritage — are elected, it would mark the first time a person of color has led the city.

For much of the year, Rubio and Gonzalez were viewed as frontrunners. But recent revelations about Rubio’s driving record — as well as Gonzalez’s, to a much lesser extent — have shaken up the race.

Frontrunners confront revelations over driving

Rubio has received roughly 150 parking and traffic violations over the last two decades. She failed to pay many of them for months or even years and had her license suspended six times. She lost some endorsements following the news, which was first reported by The Oregonian/OregonLive.

“The best I can do at this point is to say again that I’m very sorry, and that earning Portlanders’ trust back is an ongoing commitment I take very seriously,” Rubio said in an emailed statement.

Gonzalez also had his license suspended twice over 20 years ago and racked up seven speeding tickets between 1998 and 2013, including one that was dismissed, as first reported by Willamette Week.

“As a younger man, I sometimes drove too fast,” Gonzalez said in an emailed statement. “But as I’ve gotten older, I’ve become more responsible and it is reflected in my record.”

The news about driving records has created an opportunity for Wilson, who has never held elected office, said Shortell, the Portland State professor.

“What looked like it was going to be a straightforward race has shifted in recent weeks into a little bit more open-ended race,” he said. “That has, when combined with the ranked-choice voting system, opened some space for Keith Wilson.”

Under ranked-choice voting, voters rank their picks in order of preference on the ballot. If a candidate is the first choice of more than 50% of voters in the first round of counting, that candidate wins.

Otherwise, the count continues to a second round. The candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and voters who chose that candidate as their top pick have their votes redistributed to their next choice. The process continues with the candidate with the fewest votes getting eliminated until someone emerges with a majority of votes.

If Rubio and Gonzalez end up splitting voters, Wilson could be a second choice for enough voters to potentially advance, Shortell said.

The new voting system, new form of government, and sheer number of people running for office represent a lot of moving parts for both candidates and voters, and it may take multiple election cycles for City Hall and residents to get a clear sense of how things work, Shortell said.

“Right now it’s a new system, and everyone is trying to figure out what it means,” he said. “And that’s the nature of change.”