Paul Evans

Evans, a Democrat, represents House District 20-Monmouth in the Oregon Legislature. He co-chairs the Subcommittee on Public Safety for the Joint Committee on Ways and Means, and serves on the House Committee on Emergency Management, General Government and Veterans.

We live on borrowed time. We are overdue for a catastrophic seismic event in the magnitude of a possible 9.0+ on the Richter scale. Though many expect government to respond effectively, we are not prepared for a minutes–long quake, a miles–long tsunami, or the predictable post-event realities. In simplest terms, Oregon is failing to appropriately prepare for a disaster that threatens to be the largest, most destructive in American history.

When the Cascadia Subduction Zone rips, casualties will be measured in the thousands. The tsunami itself is estimated to kill at least 20,000 people. Thousands more will die because of the impacts triggered by minutes-long violent vibrations. The anticipated liquefaction will drop the ground beneath us, leveling or rendering useless most of our existing structures and forever altering the landscape of the Willamette Valley.

Unfortunately, the people killed in the quake and the tsunami represent a small fraction of the casualty projections. Right now, planners estimate emergency response operations in days, not hours; we forecast a recovery period lasting years, not months. Current resilience assessments suggest tens of thousands of additional deaths due to widespread scarcity of drinkable water, food, medical care, sanitation and shelter. The economic cost of such a disaster is expected to surpass $355 billion.

These eye-popping estimates are not hyperbole. We have witnessed the tragic aftermath of catastrophe in nations around the world. Even Japan, a nation that was well prepared for an 8.5 event, was devastated when hit with a 9.0 in 2011.

The scale, shape and size of the coming catastrophe can overwhelm us. We cannot prevent it. We cannot control it. However, we can reduce the risks. But that will require Oregonians to support a wholesale change in the way we approach and fund our disaster preparedness to match the seriousness of what we face.

Two bills before the Legislature, House Joint Resolution 201 and House Bill 4075, lay the foundation for how we can accelerate our preparation. If passed by legislators, HJR 201 would ask voters in November 2024 to approve a constitutional amendment to create a new statewide property tax for public safety.

If and only if, the voters approve HJR 201, new funding would go for all-hazards safety programming including more training opportunities for communities, coordinated “defensible space” fuels reduction efforts, property “hardening” grants, and other priority mitigation work. It would also pay for critical response and recovery staffing and supplies for largescale incidents. And Oregon would have a reliable mechanism to match federal funding for regional wildfire mitigation strategies in populated as well as unpopulated areas.

HB 4075 is a companion bill that provides guidance for sound implementation. It would create a task force empowered to develop the operating procedures and rules for transitioning the new statewide authority into a functional organization. The bill provides a transparent approach for executing the larger vision.

Together, HJR 201 and HB 4075 provide us with a desperately needed revenue stream with targeted outcomes and robust oversight. Admittedly, proposing a “new” revenue method is always controversial. There will be some who may misrepresent the approach as an attempt to fund problems beyond catastrophic disasters. Others may misunderstand how this tax would work. Whatever the case, it is essential for us to act sooner than later.

We have a duty to transform our circumstances through securing the resources necessary for expanded training for first responders, volunteers, and neighborhood teams. Passage of HJR 201/HB4075 would allow us to invest in improved facilities for responders and victims. It would give us opportunities that we have never had before to mitigate, and at times perhaps prevent catastrophic wildfire. And it would simultaneously boost our seismic response and recovery capabilities.

We have made significant progress in recent years, including modernizing our statewide emergency response structures and systems, deploying critical equipment to high-risk areas and making other essential improvements in statewide interoperability. But we must accelerate our work.

Benjamin Franklin once said that “by failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” We know the threats our region faces. The question is whether we will do what’s needed to prepare for them.

Although there is no singular “simple answer” to the challenges faced, we must begin with demanding permanent funding appropriately scaled to the task before us.

Passage of HJR 201 and HB 4075 can be the first step toward building a culture of resilience. Our lives, and the lives of our children may well depend upon it.