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How a third-party candidate is scrambling the race for Oregon’s next governor

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How a third-party candidate is scrambling the race for Oregon’s next governor


If Republican Christine Drazan turns into the primary candidate from her celebration to win Oregon’s gubernatorial race in 40 years, she’s going to probably have a unusual impartial candidate to thank after Election Day.

That’s as a result of Betsy Johnson, a preferred unaffiliated candidate within the race to develop into Oregon’s subsequent governor, has scrambled expectations about who can win and the way in a state that swung for a Democratic president by 16 factors simply two years in the past.

PERFECT STORM IN OREGON COULD PAVE WAY FOR REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR

“I feel the truth that she’s working as an impartial, fairly than truly working because the Republican she is, might be serving to her as a result of Oregon usually doesn’t go to Republican candidates,” Ross Robbins, a Portland voter who says he helps Democrat Tina Kotek, instructed the Washington Examiner. “But in addition, I feel there’s the sense that persons are type of fed up with the way in which issues have been going.”

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Johnson served as a Democrat within the state Senate for greater than 15 years however launched her gubernatorial bid as an unaffiliated candidate. She was among the many most centrist of the Democratic state lawmakers.

Jay Snell, one other Portland voter, mentioned he believes Johnson has carried out properly within the race to this point “in all probability as a result of the remainder of them are skilled politicians and, you realize, she’s simply her.”

“I’m positive she has some political affiliations, but it surely isn’t what she hangs her hat on,” Snell mentioned.

Johnson has pulled in hundreds of thousands of {dollars} within the governor’s race, together with a large sum from Nike founder Phil Knight, which helped her promote earlier and extra typically than her opponents, famous Christopher Stout, a political science professor at Oregon State College.

“She simply had a lot cash so early within the race,” Stout instructed the Washington Examiner. “Most third-party candidates can’t increase the type of cash she was elevating.”

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The Oregon governor’s race this 12 months has develop into remarkably aggressive as voters bitter on the incumbent chief’s positions on crime and the economic system. Nationwide stars from every celebration, together with President Joe Biden on the Left and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin on the Proper, have parachuted into the state to spice up their aspect’s contender.

Johnson has managed to drift above a lot of that crossfire, Stout mentioned.

“As a third-party candidate, she’s probably not getting attacked by both aspect,” he mentioned. “Drazan is focusing her assaults on Kotek, and Kotek is focusing her assaults on Drazan.”

A ballot printed this week confirmed 43% of voters supporting Drazan, 42% supporting Kotek, and 12% supporting Johnson.

Drazan heads into the ultimate two weeks of the race with a razor-thin lead, in response to a weighted polling common from the info web site FiveThirtyEight. The Republican candidate has led in six of the eight most up-to-date surveys, though neither she nor Kotek has persistently polled above the low 40s when it comes to the share of voters backing them.

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That’s the place Johnson’s candidacy might have probably the most affect.

By siphoning off a double-digit share of assist — and, in response to some analyses, pulling extra of that assist from the Democratic Social gathering than from Republicans — Johnson might clear a path for Drazan to win the governor’s race with an unusually small share of the vote.

Present Democratic Gov. Kate Brown gained in 2018 with simply above 50% of the vote. In 2014, then-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) gained reelection with just below 50%.

Drazan leads the gubernatorial discipline, in response to the FiveThirtyEight common, with lower than 39%.

Ought to the election outcomes mirror present polling numbers, Drazan might win with a margin much like, and even under, the shedding margin of failed Republican gubernatorial candidates in earlier elections.

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“The higher Betsy Johnson does, the larger the probability that Drazan wins the election, I feel,” Stout mentioned.

Johnson has labored to place herself as a nonpartisan drawback solver in a state beset by intractable issues.

“Oregon is a large number,” Johnson started a Fox Information op-ed final week.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“I’m not working as a Democrat or as a Republican,” she wrote. “I’m working as an Oregonian — loyal solely to the folks, not the entrenched partisan pursuits in Salem. You don’t have to depart your celebration to assist me, you solely should need a greater Oregon.”

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Loretta Guzman, the proprietor of a store referred to as Bison Coffeehouse that was attacked by vandals attributable to her commercial of a neighborhood occasion with police, mentioned she believes Johnson is extra common than her numbers counsel.

“They present her polls being low, however I feel lots of people are taking a look at her,” Guzman mentioned.





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Oregon

Oregon Ethics Commission nixes investigation into Gov. Kotek, First Lady

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Oregon Ethics Commission nixes investigation into Gov. Kotek, First Lady


The commission said its analysis would be different if Aimee Kotek Wilson received a salary or other private benefits

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — The Oregon Government Ethics Commission has decided against launching a full investigation into complaints concerning Gov. Tina Kotek and her wife, Aimee Kotek Wilson.

At a meeting on Friday, the agency examined the preliminary report on the case involving a potential Office of the First Spouse before determining that the governor did not violate any ethics laws — including those on conflicts of interest or nepotism.

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“We note that had the Governor unilaterally decided to provide the First Lady with a salary or other private benefits, the above analysis would be different,” the commission wrote in its preliminary review. “The analysis would also be different if there was any suggestion that the public duties of the First Lady could financially benefit a private business with which the First Lady was associated.”

In late March, news broke that Kotek Wilson had an office in the governor’s base of operations at the state library and an on-loan staffer from the Department of Administration Services. With a master’s degree in social work, the First Lady was also known to attend official meetings regarding behavioral health.

The following week, the governor clarified that her wife was solely an “unpaid volunteer with both lived and professional experience.” Kotek also announced she had asked the Ethics Commission for guidance on a potential Office of the First Spouse, but the commission later said it couldn’t advise her because of its plans to review complaints on the same matter.

Subsequently, the governor abandoned plans to create the First Lady’s office.

“After listening to and reflecting on the concerns of Oregonians who have contacted my office, as well as the advice of staff, I want to be clear about next steps: There will not be an Office of the First Spouse,” Kotek said.

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The announcement came after her office released several emails from senior staff members who abruptly left their positions earlier in the year. In one email, Kotek’s former Chief of Staff Andrea Cooper said she was “asked not to attend” a meeting where events were added to Kotek Wilson’s calendar.



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U.S. Supreme Court sides with Oregon city, allows ban on homeless people sleeping outdoors • Maine Morning Star

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U.S. Supreme Court sides with Oregon city, allows ban on homeless people sleeping outdoors • Maine Morning Star


The U.S. Supreme Court Friday sided with a local ordinance in Oregon that effectively bans homeless people from sleeping outdoors, and local governments will be allowed to enforce those laws.

In a 6-3 decision, Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote in the opinion that the enforcement of those local laws that regulate camping on public property does not constitute the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment.

“Homelessness is complex. Its causes are many. So may be the public policy responses required to address it,” he wrote. “The Constitution’s Eighth Amendment serves many important functions, but it does not authorize federal judges to wrest those rights and responsibilities from the American people and in their place dictate this Nation’s homelessness policy.”

The case originated in Grants Pass, a city in Oregon that argues its ordinance is a solution to the city’s homelessness crisis, which includes fines and potential jail time for repeat offenders who camp or sleep outdoors.

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Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote a dissent arguing that the ordinance targets the status of being homeless and is therefore a violation of the Eighth Amendment.

“Grants Pass’s Ordinances criminalize being homeless,” she wrote. “The Ordinances’ purpose, text, and enforcement confirm that they target status, not conduct. For someone with no available shelter, the only way to comply with the Ordinances is to leave Grants Pass altogether.”

During oral arguments, the justices seemed split over ideological lines, with the conservative justices siding with the town in Oregon, arguing that policies and ordinances around homelessness are complex, and should be left up to local elected representatives rather than the courts.

The liberal justices criticized the city’s argument that homelessness is not a status protected under the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition of cruel and unusual punishment. The liberal justices argued the Grants Pass ordinance criminalized the status of being homeless.

The Biden administration took the middle ground in the case, and U.S. Deputy Solicitor General Edwin Kneedler offered partial support.

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“It’s the municipality’s determination, certainly in the first instance with a great deal of flexibility, how to address the question of homelessness,” he said during oral arguments in late April.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated.



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OHA: Oregon needs 3,700 mental health, substance abuse treatment beds, closing gap could cost $170 million a year – KTVZ

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OHA: Oregon needs 3,700 mental health, substance abuse treatment beds, closing gap could cost $170 million a year – KTVZ


SALEM, Ore. (KTVZ) – Oregon needs up to 3,700 adult mental health and substance use treatment beds to close existing gaps and meet future service projections, according to a final Oregon Health Authority study of the state’s behavioral health continuum of care.

The findings are part of an assessment that Governor Tina Kotek directed the OHA to commission last year. The report was produced by Public Consulting Group, a public sector solutions implementation and operations improvement firm that has produced similar studies in Washington and other states.

The findings inform an ongoing funding and implementation effort that state leaders are committed to pursue, which could take several biennia to complete, according to OHA’s news release, which follows in full:

According to the final Behavioral Health Residential + Facility Study report, closing the gap could require investments of as much as $170 million per year over the next five years and the creation of approximately 650 new beds per year.

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The final report includes a new five-year funding recommendation that recognizes the importance of:

  • Increasing the behavioral health workforce to support expanded capacity.
  • Improving access to mental health and substance use disorder support services to help individuals stay within their communities.
  • Expanding supportive and transitional housing opportunities.

State health officials will continue to work with Governor Kotek and the Legislature to apply the study’s findings and guide investments toward closing the gap in treatment services.

“We don’t get to choose between adding beds, and adding workforce. We must do both in order to make real change in our behavioral health system. It’s important to note that capacity in Oregon’s behavioral health system is dynamic, and the data in the report represent a point-in-time snapshot of one part of a broader continuum of care,” said OHA Behavioral Health Director Ebony Clarke.

“This report provides us with critical data to inform how we prioritize the creation of more treatment beds and it also underscores the broader understanding that we need to continue to invest in solutions that reduce the number of beds needed,” Clarke said. “We do this through investing in protective factors and earlier intervention – additional community-based programming, crisis and outpatient programs, in addition to other supportive services – to prevent people who are experiencing mental illness or substance use from progressing to a level of severity in their illnesses that would require treatment in a more acute setting.”

The final report follows the draft preliminary report released in February.

At the direction of OHA, the final report reflects updated data for the facilities within scope for this study. Although there is no perfect methodology for determining the appropriate number of high-acuity beds in a behavioral health system, PCG used state and national data sets, findings from peer-reviewed literature and surveys of treatment facilities to estimate mental health and SUD treatment bed capacity and needs within the continuum of care. PCG worked at the direction of OHA to include Oregon-specific data.

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Even as the report was finalized, state officials were moving quickly to supplement capacity and have already identified several short-horizon “priority” projects, which are likely to bring community beds online within the next year or two and to address what are considered critical service gaps. OHA is working to publish a dashboard later this summer that will track and highlight progress toward new beds coming online.

Over the past four years, the Oregon Legislature has invested more than $1.5 billion to expand behavioral health treatment capacity, raise provider payment rates and stabilize the treatment workforce. Oregon’s current capacity shortfall would be even greater without these investments.

According to the report, recent legislative investments from HB 5202 (2022) and HB 5024 (2021) have supported the creation of 356 new licensed mental health residential beds (exclusive of adult foster homes), SUD residential, and withdrawal management beds, which are under construction and scheduled to open by the third quarter of 2025.



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