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College Football Playoff projections: Oregon strengthens its hold as several teams tumble

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College Football Playoff projections: Oregon strengthens its hold as several teams tumble


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The first College Football Playoff rankings come out on Tuesday, so it is probably appropriate that this weekend’s slate of games throws one last monkey wrench into the mix.

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Clemson seemed like it was heading for a battle with Miami for ACC supremacy but faltered. Now, darkhorse SMU is emerging as the biggest threat.

Texas A&M was the last unbeaten in the SEC and it was throttled by South Carolina, so that one is up for grabs, too.

About the only thing that seems to be a sure thing is Boise State as the Group of Five representative.

BYU, Texas and Notre Dame all were off.

Our top four teams haven’t changed: Oregon, Georgia, Miami and BYU. But there is plenty of movement elsewhere. The top four conference champions earn first-round byes. There has to be a Group of 5 school. This is what our 12-team field would look like if the season ended today.

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1. Oregon (9-0, 6-0)

The Ducks got an efficient performance from Dillon Gabriel and coasted to a 38-17 win over Michigan in Ann Arbor. Gabriel went 22-for-34 for 294 yards with a touchdown and sprinted home 23 yards for one that gave Oregon an 18-point halftime lead. Jordan James ran for 117 yards and the Ducks never looked back.

Last week: 1. Next: vs. Maryland on Saturday.

2. Georgia (7-1, 5-1)

The Bulldogs had a tougher-than-expected time with rival Florida but ended up with a 34-20 victory. The contest was even at 20 midway through the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs went ahead for good on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Carson Beck to Dominic Lovett with 4:01 to go. Beck threw for 309 yards but was intercepted three times.

Last week: 2. Next: at Mississippi on Saturday.

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3. Miami (9-0, 5-0)

The Hurricanes were challenged early but ended up with a 53-31 win over Duke. The Hurricanes trailed 28-17 but rallied. Miami scored the last 21 points of the contest, two of those coming on touchdown passes by Cam Ward who threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns on the day. Ward now has 29 touchdown passes, tying Steve Walsh’s Hurricanes single-season record set in 1988.

Last week: 3. Next: at Georgia Tech on Saturday.

4. BYU (8-0, 5-0)

The Cougars had a week off to brace for their in-state rival, Utah, which has had the better of the battle of late. This appears to be a season BYU can exact some revenge and keep its conference title hopes alive, not to mention further its cause for a playoff berth.

Last week: 4. Next: at Utah on Saturday.

5. Ohio State (7-1, 4-1)

The Buckeyes held Penn State to 270 total yards and got some timely field goals in hanging on for a 20-13 win in a Big Ten battle of title contenders. Ohio State led 14-10 at the half and neither team was able to score a touchdown in the second. The Buckeyes got field goals of 46 and 39 yards from Jayden Fielding to give them some breathing room.

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Last week: 8. Next: vs. Purdue on Saturday.

6. Texas (7-1, 3-1)

The Longhorns had a bye and, with Texas A&M losing, remained in the hunt for a berth in the SEC championship game. Texas A&M was the last unbeaten in the conference.,

Last week: 6. Next: vs. Florida on Saturday

7. Tennessee (7-1, 4-1)

The Volunteers chalked up a 28-18 win over Kentucky with Nico Iamaleava throwing for 292 yards. Kentucky led 10-7 at the half, but Tennessee scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to take the lead for good. Tennessee had 478 yards total offense and benefited from three Kentucky turnovers.

Last week: 11 Next: vs. Mississippi State on Saturday.

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8. Notre Dame (7-1)

The Fighting Irish had a bye and will be looking to extend their win streak to seven games next weekend. They had that early loss to Northern Illinois but have slowly crept back into the picture, but as an independent are not eligible for a first-round bye.

Last week: 12. Next: vs. Florida State on Saturday.

9. Boise State (7-1, 4-0)

Sophomore quarterback Maddux Madison threw for a career-high 307 yards and four touchdowns and Ashton Jeanty ran for 149 and two touchdowns as the Broncos cruised to a 56-24 win over San Diego State in Mountain West Conference play Friday. It was Jeanty’s eighth straight game of 100 yards or more, breaking the school record set by Jay Ajayi in 2014. Boise State’s lone loss was a 37-34 setback at now-No. 1 Oregon on Sept. 7.

Last week: 9. Next: vs. Nevada on Saturday.

10. Penn State (7-1, 4-1)

The Nittany Lions were upended by Ohio State 20-13, with their hopes of reaching the Big Ten championship dealt a serious blow. A berth in the the 12-team College Football Playoff still looks to be on solid ground. Penn State’s last win over Ohio State came in 2016. Penn State converted only three of 11 third-down tries and managed only 270 yards total offense.

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Last week: 5. Next: vs. Washington on Saturday.

11. Clemson (6-2, 5-1)

The Tigers were soundly beaten by Louisville 33-21 and, with Miami and SMU still unbeaten, that is a significant setback for their ACC championship aspirations. It marked the first win over Clemson by Louisville in nine tries. Clemson saw its six-game win streak snapped, with its other loss being in the season opener against Georgia.

Last week: 8. Next: at Virginia Tech on Saturday

12. Indiana (9-0, 6-0)

Are the Hoosiers for real? It remains to be seen. There is no Penn State on the schedule. No Oregon or USC, either, so they have benefited from a light schedule. Indiana beat Michigan State 47-10 but that’s another mediocre foe at best. We’re pumping the brakes on boosting them too high, and the only reason they’re in is the number of losses by teams previously ahead of them in the pecking order.

Last week: Not ranked: Next: vs. Michigan

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Dropped out: Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1, lost to South Carolina 44-20)

Bubble watch: Iowa State (7-1, 4-1, lost to Texas Tech 23-22), Kansas State (7-2, 4-2, lost to Houston 24-19), Pittsburgh (7-1, 3-1, lost to SMU 48-25), Alabama (6-2, 3-2, had a bye).

What the bracket would look like:

No. 12 Indiana vs. No. 5 Ohio State

No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 8 Notre Dame

No. 11 Clemson vs. No. 6 Texas

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No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Tennessee

That would give us quarterfinals

No. 12 Indiana-No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 BYU

No. 9 Boise State-No. 8 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Clemson-No. 6 Texas winner vs. No. 3 Miami

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No. 10 Penn State-No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Georgia



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Oregon

Oregon factory jobs fall to lowest point in a dozen years

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Oregon factory jobs fall to lowest point in a dozen years


Oregon’s manufacturing sector continues its rapid decline with employment down more than 5% in the past year. Newly released state data shows factory employment has fallen below the depths it hit in the dark days of the pandemic recession.

The state had about 177,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the Oregon Employment Department reported last week. That’s the fewest number since December 2013.

Manufacturing is a big deal in Oregon. The state has a higher concentration of blue-collar jobs than most other states, a function of its roots in forest products, food processing and electronics manufacturing.

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The state’s tax code also favors heavy industry. Oregon has no sales tax and offers lucrative property tax exemptions to large manufacturers. It exempts companies from income and revenue taxes on products they make here and sell in other states or countries, though the state’s new corporate activity tax is adding to the cost of some equipment and materials that manufacturers use.

Oregon factories began shedding jobs three years ago but as recently as last spring state economists were hopeful the worst was over. It wasn’t. The decline accelerated as the year went on and Oregon has now lost nearly 10,000 factory jobs in the past 12 months.

Much of the trouble corresponds to severe issues in Oregon’s semiconductor industry, the state’s largest economic sector in dollar terms.

Intel remains the state’s largest corporate employer but it has laid off more than 6,000 workers since the summer of 2024. The chipmaker’s Oregon workforce is at its lowest point in more than a dozen years, at a little more than 16,000 local employees.

Intel is struggling to overcome years of setbacks in its production technology, playing catchup to industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says a smaller workforce will make Intel more agile.

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It’s not just Intel cutting jobs. Microchip Technology, Onsemi and others have laid off an unspecified number of Oregon workers in response to setbacks in their own businesses. Altogether, Oregon chipmakers have shed about a fifth of their jobs in the past 18 months.

President Donald Trump’s trade war may also be playing a role in Oregon’s manufacturing woes. The president says his tariffs are designed to bring factory jobs back to the U.S. but they have also triggered retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

That stings in Oregon, which is among the most trade-dependent states in the nation. The state’s exports were down 19% through the first nine months of the year, according to the latest federal data collected by WiserTrade. It’s not clear how much of that decline was triggered by the trade war, though, and to what degree fewer exports translated into fewer jobs.

In their quarterly revenue forecast last month, state economists told a legislative committee that Oregon factory workers are also spending less time on the job in recent months — a worrisome sign that suggests manufacturers are continuing to scale back.

“The current direction of manufacturing hours worked per week in Oregon, coupled with ongoing job losses, raises concerns for the sector,” the economists wrote.

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This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.



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Lake scores 16, Oregon State knocks off Montana State 67-57

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Lake scores 16, Oregon State knocks off Montana State 67-57


CORVALLIS, Ore. (AP) — Josiah Lake’s 16 points helped Oregon State defeat Montana State 67-57 on Saturday.

Lake had eight rebounds and six assists for the Beavers (6-5). Dez White added 12 points while shooting 4 for 11, including 2 for 7 from beyond the arc while he also had five rebounds. Isaiah Sy shot 4 for 8, including 3 for 7 from beyond the arc to finish with 12 points.

The Bobcats (4-7) were led in scoring by Patrick McMahon, who finished with 17 points and seven rebounds. Jeremiah Davis added nine points for Montana State.

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Oregon State used a 10-2 run in the second half to build a 10-point lead at 63-53 with 2:02 left in the half before finishing off the win.

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The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.



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How Oregon’s Defense Ranks Compared To James Madison

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How Oregon’s Defense Ranks Compared To James Madison


While the No. 5 Oregon Ducks offense has been the glue of the team’s success this season, their defense has also played a pivotal role in helping them earn a spot in the College Football Playoff for a second consecutive year.

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Entering their first-round home playoff matchup against the No. 12 James Madison Dukes, Oregon aims to capitalize on defense, which is crucial in their goal of making a run at its first National Championship in program history. Oregon enters the playoff as one of the highest-ranked at-large teams behind the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Where Does Oregon’s Defense Stack Up Against James Madison, CFP Field?

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Oregon outside linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei, left, and Oregon defensive back Dillon Thieneman bring down Washington running back Jonah Coleman as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Despite the Ducks being an overwhelming 21.5-point favorite over James Madison, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook, the first-round playoff matchup in Eugene will be a battle between two dominant defenses.

James Madison is second in the country in total defense behind Ohio State, allowing 247.6 yards per game. The Ducks’ defense is ranked No. 4 in total defense, allowing 251.6 yards per game.  

Oregon’s defense has several contributors who have led the team under defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi this season, including Matayo Uiagalelei and A’Mauri Washington up front on the defensive line. Bryce Boettcher and Teitum Tuioti have also been dominant players at linebacker this season for the Ducks.

Boettcher leads the Ducks with 103 total tackles, one interception, and one sack this season. Dillon Thieneman, Brandon Finney Jr., and Aaron Flowers have been key contributors in the secondary with four interceptions combined.

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MORE: Weather Concerns Begin For Oregon’s Playoff Game vs. James Madison

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MORE: Three Reasons Why Oregon Could Be The Most Dangerous Playoff Team

MORE: Oregon Ducks Projected to Make Program History In 2026 NFL Draft 

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When it comes to scoring defense, the Ducks are ranked No. 6 among the other 12 playoff teams, allowing 14.8 points per game.

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The five playoff teams that rank above the Ducks in scoring defense include No. 2 Ohio State (8.2), No. 1 Indiana (10.8), No. 4 Texas Tech (10.9), No. 10 Miami (13.8), and No. 8 Oklahoma (13.9). Oregon’s first round opponent, James Madison, is ranked one spot below the Ducks at No. 7 in scoring defense, allowing 15.9 points per game. 

Oregon’s Defense Strengths and Weaknesses

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Oregon outside linebacker Teitum Tuioti, left, defensive lineman A’Mauri Washington and outside linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei celebrate a sack by Tuioti as the Oregon Ducks host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Nov. 14, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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If the Ducks beat James Madison in the first round of the playoff, they’ll face the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the CFP Quarterfinals at the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1. A potential matchup between the Red Raiders and the Ducks in the Orange Bowl could come down to whichever defense performs better. While Oregon’s pass defense has been dominant throughout the season, its rush defense could jeopardize the Ducks’ quest for a championship. 

The Ducks rank No. 8 among playoff teams in rushing defense, allowing 107.3 yards per game. Texas Tech ranks No. 1, allowing 68.5 yards per game. The Red Raiders’ rush defense’s ability to shut down Oregon’s dominant running back trio of Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. will be one of the biggest keys in a potential Orange Bowl matchup.

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Sep 5, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; James Madison Dukes running back Wayne Knight (3) runs the ball against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

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It’ll be interesting to see how Oregon’s defense holds up against a talented James Madison offense that will have a chip on its shoulder as a massive underdog. The Dukes’ offense, led by quarterback Alonza Barnett III and star running back Wayne Knight, will challenge Oregon’s defense early on, but expect the Ducks to win convincingly.

Oregon will host James Madison at Autzen Stadium to open up the CFP on Dec. 20, with the kickoff scheduled for 4:30 p.m. PT. The game broadcast will be on TNT, HBO Max, and truTV.

  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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