The November 2024 general election is still in the rearview mirror, but campaign season is well underway again in New Mexico as the 2026 race for governor begins to take shape.
Two high-profile Democrats — former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman — are already off and running.
So is the Republican mayor of Rio Rancho, Gregg Hull, who plans a kickoff event in June, a year ahead of the primary.
He could face a GOP contest: Judith Nakamura, a former chief justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court and the last Republican in the state to win a statewide race, confirmed Friday she’s considering a run for governor.
“I am a ways off from making a decision,” Nakamura said. “It’s something I think about with great frequency, but it’s a significant step, so I’m taking my time.”
The field of candidates in both parties could continue to grow ahead of the June 2026 primary as other potential contenders consider a bid to succeed two-term Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham in what is likely to be a contentious midterm election season in New Mexico and nationwide.
One possible hopeful is the former longtime mayor of Las Cruces, Democrat Ken Miyagishima. He has formed an exploratory committee to assess a potential candidacy and said Friday he’s leaning toward running.
While Democrats have maintained a stronghold in the state, gubernatorial candidates here face a political landscape shaped by frustration from some voters with rising crime and escalating costs for housing and household goods and the conservative wave that ushered in the Donald Trump presidency.
The effects of the Trump administration — from federal layoffs, funding cuts and tariffs to immigration enforcement and removal of diversity, equity and inclusion programs — are also likely to sway voters.
The state’s new, more open primary contests pose a new challenge for campaigns as well: Under legislation signed into law this month by Lujan Grisham, voters who are not affiliated with a party will now be able to participate in primaries without first having to change their voter registration to a major party.
As of March, more than 309,000 of New Mexico’s 1.3 million voters — nearly a quarter — have not designated a party affiliation.
Battle for Democratic nod
“There’s nothing more that I would like to do than to serve the people of New Mexico,” Miyagishima said Friday.
He would face two formidable Democratic primary opponents who have a head start on campaigning.
Haaland, a former congresswoman and the first Native American to serve in a federal Cabinet post, was first out of the gate, a strategic move that could dissuade other prominent Democrats from entering the gubernatorial race.
Amid growing speculation Haaland was getting ready to launch her campaign, U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, a fellow New Mexico Democrat, announced in January he wouldn’t be running for governor in 2026.
Bregman announced his bid for the office earlier this month, giving his first campaign speech to a crowd of several hundred Northern New Mexico supporters in Las Vegas, N.M.
Haaland, who is considered the front-runner in the Democratic primary, reported an impressive fundraising haul in the first few months of her campaign: nearly $2.9 million.
“That’s her way of saying, ‘I’m strong, and I want to lock up as much support among key players as possible,’ ” said Brian Sanderoff, an Albuquerque political analyst and respected pollster.
“But that did not deter Sam Bregman,” Sanderoff added. “He was forced to make an earlier decision because although he had been telling many people behind the scenes that he was going to run to try to stem the tide of people committing to Deb Haaland, he had to eventually go public. He did and so now the race is on between two prominent individuals.”
While Haaland espoused a more moderate message geared more toward the general election than the primary in a campaign launch video, Bregman, riding a horse and wearing chaps and his signature black cowboy hat, said in his video he was running for governor “to take on the chaos in Washington and protect the people of New Mexico.”
“New Mexico is under attack by Elon Musk, his puppet, Donald Trump, and Republicans in Washington,” Bregman says in the opening lines of his launch video. “Meanwhile, Democrats in Washington have been weak, ineffective and complicit with all this madness. And it’s the intolerance of the radical left that has divided our party at a time when we need everyone to unite in the fight against Trump.”
Sanderoff said Bregman’s strategy of starting out by running “against Trump and MAGA” is a good way of gaining popularity among the Democratic Party base.
“My guess is he’ll start out more criticizing the Trump administration and then, as time goes on,” he’ll be more critical of Haaland if the polling indicates he needs to get more aggressive, Sanderoff said.
Although Haaland got a lead in locking down key endorsements and raising money, Bregman is a prominent defense attorney who is well known across much of the state, the pollster added.
“Deb Haaland has a built-in base of progressives, Native Americans and some Hispanic working-class voters,” he said. “Sam Bregman is an aggressive campaigner, is effective in getting his message out there to the voters and will be a formidable challenger to Deb Haaland.”
GOP path to success?
Sanderoff noted New Mexico is a blue state where a Republican hasn’t won a statewide office since 2016.
“That was a Supreme Court race, which is relatively low profile, but how did Judith Nakamura win as a Republican in 2016?” he asked. “She did it by doing well in Albuquerque, and that’s the key for the Republicans.”
One ingredient for potential success for Republicans is a candidate who is well-known and well-liked in Albuquerque, he said.
“That’s what Nakamura did because she was a metro judge and a district judge in Albuquerque before she became a Supreme Court justice,” Sanderoff said. “She did well here in the general election, which then enabled her to win statewide.”
So far, Nakamura would face Hull, whose gubernatorial campaign is well underway with fundraising and a website where a video reveals his early messaging: New Mexico should emulate Rio Rancho’s success in public safety and other metrics.
Another Republican said to be considering a gubernatorial campaign is former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who served alongside former Gov. Susana Martinez, the last Republican to occupy the Governor’s Office. Sanchez could not be reached for comment.
Before joining the Supreme Court, Nakamura served nearly three years as a judge in the 2nd Judicial District Court and more than 14 years in Bernalillo County Metropolitan Court. She oversaw day-to-day operations of Metro Court as its chief judge from 2002-13, according to the Administrative Office of the Courts.
Asked Friday why she was considering running for governor, she said it’s not something she would consider unless she thought she could be impactful and make a positive difference.
“It’s one of the things that I’m certainly weighing at this moment,” she said. “You know, I’m not a believer in just running for office to accumulate titles. I’m a believer in running for an office where you can make a difference, so that’s part of what is factoring in my thought about it.”
Nakamura said she hasn’t set a deadline to make a decision.
“I need to be sure it’s a right decision and not a rushed decision,” she said.
Ash Soular, a spokesperson for the Republican Party of New Mexico, said the party maintains impartiality during a primary and will support all GOP candidates equally.
“Every Republican candidate has our support, as we believe our values benefit New Mexicans over any Democrat,” she said.
Soular emphasized the need for change, highlighting New Mexico’s long-standing Democratic rule and what she called a failure to address issues like crime and education.
“Every year they say that they’re going to fix the problems and every year those problems either remain the same or get worse, so right now, New Mexico has a chance to change the trajectory,” she said.
Courting N.M. voters
During a recent interview on The New Mexican‘s podcast Around the Roundhouse, Bregman, who was initially appointed district attorney in the 2nd Judicial District and then elected to the post in November, said he loves his job and fighting crime.
“I think we’ve made a big difference in the crime problem in Albuquerque and Bernalillo County, but right now, it’s time to get some stuff done at a statewide level,” he said.
Sanderoff said Bregman’s decision to kick off his campaign at an event in Las Vegas was a smart move.
“The Hispanic vote is incredibly potent in a Democratic primary,” he said. “Bregman can’t cede any region of the state to Deb Haaland.”
Joanie Griffin, a spokesperson for Bregman’s campaign, said the support Bregman has been receiving from all regions of the state since he formally announced his campaign has been overwhelming.
“We are very enthused and invigorated and have no doubt as we get to speak to more New Mexicans they will realize that Sam Bregman is the best candidate to be New Mexico’s next governor,” she said.
Felicia Salazar, a spokesperson for Haaland, said in a statement Haaland’s focus on listening to New Mexicans is resonating in every corner of the state. After she announced her bid for governor, Haaland embarked on a statewide listening tour.
“She’s lived a life that many in our state have also lived,” Salazar said. “That, mixed with a record of changing the system in every position she’s held, puts her in the position to be the leader New Mexico needs in this moment.”
Unlike Haaland and Hull, who reported more than $206,000 in campaign contributions so far, Bregman didn’t file a campaign finance report for the first quarter of the year.
“We weren’t legally allowed to start fundraising until the campaign committee was established, which happened last week,” Griffin said. “Since the announcement last Thursday, the support has been overwhelming. We look forward to sharing our results soon and to a very competitive race for governor.”
Bregman is holding a fundraiser in Midland, Texas, this week. A flyer for the event to learn more about his candidacy and “his plan to support and strengthen New Mexico’s oil and gas industry” lists four tiers of donations, $12,400 for a “champion for change” and $1,000 for a “visionary supporter.”
During his kickoff event, Bregman chastised what he called the “radical left-wing elite.”
Asked at the event to elaborate, Bregman said the phrase refers to “certain members of the Legislature who refused to even have a robust debate about juvenile crime.”
He added, “I’m referring to folks who realize that the oil and gas industry, for example, provides a billion dollars for education every single year, provides half of the state budget and 100,000 jobs, yet are still willing to float the idea of shutting down oil and gas exploration.”
The Haaland campaign declined to comment on Bregman’s decision to hold a fundraiser at the Petroleum Club of Midland.
While Haaland is dwarfing everyone else on the fundraising front, she’s already spent almost $1.2 million, the vast majority in digital advertising, leaving her with about $1.7 million cash on hand.
“Deb Haaland will face New Mexico’s challenges head-on, and she knows that the best way to do that is to meet New Mexicans where they are,” Salazar said. “She’s building a campaign infrastructure to reach voters in every corner of the state, in their neighborhoods, online and beyond.”
