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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Survey Shows A Tie—As Harris Struggles With Latinos

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Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Survey Shows A Tie—As Harris Struggles With Latinos


Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow edge over former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where an erosion of support among Latino voters threatens to hurt her chances of winning the state in November.

Key Facts

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters released Monday (margin of error 4.8).

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Harris has a 0.3-point edge in Nevada, according to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, while an Emerson poll released last week found her leading by one point, 48% to 47%, after the two were tied at 48% in September, and a Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

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Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic.

Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters.

Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris.

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Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Tangent

Nevada is one of three swing states, in addition to Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris has an edge over Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight averages. Trump leads by narrow margins in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Harris has a razor-thin edge in national polling.

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Key Background

The Harris campaign is making a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

Further Reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)

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Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)



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Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault

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Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault


A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling a remote stretch of central Nevada near Tonopah, including a magnitude 4.0 quake that hit near Warm Springs Tuesday morning.

Seismologists said the activity is typical for Nevada, where clusters of earthquakes can flare up in a concentrated area. “This is a very Nevada-style earthquake sequence. We have these a lot where we just see an uptick in activity in a certain spot,” said Christie Rowe, director of the Nevada Seismological Lab.

The latest magnitude 4.0 quake struck east of Tonopah near Warm Springs. The largest earthquake in the swarm so far has measured a 4.2.

What has stood out to researchers is the fault involved. Rowe said the earthquakes are occurring along a fault stretching along the southern edge of the Monitor and Antelope ranges — and that it was previously unknown to scientists. “We didn’t know this fault was there. It’s a new fault to us — not to the Earth, obviously — but it was previously unknown,” Rowe said.

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For now, the earthquakes have remained moderate. Rowe said the lab would not deploy additional temporary sensors unless activity increases to around a magnitude 5 or greater.

Seismologists said they are continuing to watch the swarm closely as Nevada works to bring the ShakeAlert early warning system to the state. The program, already active in neighboring states, can send cellphone alerts seconds before shaking arrives. “For me, it’s a really high priority. That distance to the faults gives us enough time to warn people — and that can make a big difference in reducing injuries and damage,” Rowe said.

Seismologists encouraged anyone who feels shaking to report it through the U.S. Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It” system, saying even small quakes can help scientists better understand Nevada’s seismic activity.

Experts said the swarm is worth monitoring but is not cause for alarm. They noted that earthquakes like the 5.8 that hit near Yerington in December 2024 typically happen in Nevada about every eight to 10 years, and said they will continue monitoring the current activity closely.



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Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says

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Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says


Nevada state court is the proper venue for reviewing whether KalshiEX LLC is improperly accepting sports wagers without a license, a federal district court said.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board showed that the state statutes under which it seeks relief don’t require interpreting federal law, Judge Miranda M. Du of the US District Court for the District of Nevada said in a Monday order. The board’s action is now remanded to the First Judicial District Court in Carson City, Nev., the order said.

The board in 2025 urged Kalshi, a financial services company, to get a gaming license, but the …



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EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues

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EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues


Strip gaming executives can put their best spin on the numbers, but local tourism indicators remain a major concern. Casino operators seeking to draw more people through the door still have much work to do.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board released January gaming numbers Friday. The news was underwhelming. The state gaming win was down 6.6 percent from a year earlier. The Strip took the largest hit, an 11 percent drop. But the gloomy returns were spread throughout Clark County: Downtown Las Vegas was off 5.2 percent, Laughlin suffered a 3.3 percent decline and the Boulder Strip dipped by 7 percent.

For the current fiscal year, gaming tax collections are up a paltry
2.1 percent, below budget projections.

The red flags include more than gaming numbers. Recently released figures for 2025 reveal that visitation to Las Vegas fell nearly 8 percent from 2024, which represented the lowest total since the pandemic in 2021. Traffic at Reid International Airport fell more than 10 percent in December and was down 6 percent for the year. Strip occupancy rates fell 3 percent in 2025.

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To be fair, this is not just a Las Vegas problem. International travel to the United States was down
4.8 percent in January, Forbes reported, the ninth straight month of decline. Travel from Europe fell 5.2 percent, and passenger counts from Asia fell 7.5 percent. Canadian tourism cratered by 22 percent.

No doubt that President Donald Trump’s blustery rhetoric has played a role in the decline, but there’s more at work. International tourism has been largely flat since Barack Obama’s last few years in office. But domestic travel has held relatively steady although it is “starting to cool,” according to the U.S. Travel Association. Las Vegas hasn’t been helped by high-profile complaints last year about exorbitant Strip prices for parking, bottled water and other staples. Casino operators responded by offering discounts, particularly for locals, and they’ll need to continue those policies into 2026.

The tourism downturn has ramifications for the state budget, which relies primarily on sales and gaming tax revenues to support spending plans. “Nevada’s employment and economic challenges reflect deep structural factors that extend beyond cyclical economic fluctuations,” noted a recent report by economic analyst John Restrepo. “The state’s extreme concentration in tourism and gaming creates unique vulnerabilities.”

The irony is that state and local politicians have been talking for the past half century about “diversifying” the state economy. In recent years, that effort has primarily consisted of handing out millions in tax breaks and other incentives to attract businesses to the state. A dispassionate observer might ask whether that approach has brought an adequate return on investment.

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