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How Do Montana State, North Dakota State Compare To Past FCS National Championship Contenders?

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How Do Montana State, North Dakota State Compare To Past FCS National Championship Contenders?


As we prepare for the 2025 FCS National Championship game, we wanted to take a look at how Montana State and North Dakota State compare to previous teams who have made appearances in the FCS national title game over the past five seasons.

Do these teams belong in the same conversation as last season’s South Dakota State team or the 16-0 North Dakota State team in 2019? We examine both teams in this season’s national title game and compare them to those who have appeared in the national title game in the last five full seasons. Due to the unique format of the season, we excluded the shortened spring 2021 season.

We utilized several advanced metrics, including the Massey Power Rating, Sagarin Power Rating, and College Football Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS). The SRS is not logged for FCS teams, but we have utilized their formula to make our own SRS for teams at the FCS level. The calculation is straightforward, using the average margin of victory and strength of schedule.

Massey Power Rating

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Sagarin Rating

SRS

2024 Montana State

53.5

76.6

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26.2

2024 North Dakota State

55.8

76.3

25.7

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2023 South Dakota State

62.8

83.3

24.3

2023 Montana

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49.9

69.1

15.9

2022 South Dakota State

58.8

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76.0

25.9

2022 North Dakota State

55.3

69.7

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18.9

2021 North Dakota State

63.3

76.3

23.3

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2021 Montana State

52.3

65.1

18.4

2019 North Dakota State

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61.4

78.6

24.4

2019 James Madison

57.2

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72.8

22.3

Both teams this season compare favorably with the past four FCS national champions. Montana State has the second-highest adjusted margin of victory, winning by an average of 19.1 points per game. It only trails the 2019 North Dakota State team, which defeated opponents by an average of 19.3 points per game.

The most interesting takeaway is that this is the first matchup in the FCS National Championship in the past five full seasons in which both teams appear to be playing at a championship standard. Analytically, this is the closest gap between the teams playing in the national championship in the past five seasons.

This should be no surprise to fans, who have seen dominant performances over the past few seasons in Frisco. The average margin of victory in the past five national championships has been 16.4 points, with the closest game being Sam Houston State’s two-point win over South Dakota State in the spring of 2021.

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If you were to average these three metrics together, they would rank as follows:

1. 2023 South Dakota State (56.8)
2. 2019 North Dakota State (54.8)
3. 2021 North Dakota State (54.3)
4. 2022 South Dakota State (53.6)
5. 2024 North Dakota State (52.6)
6. 2024 Montana State (52.1)
7. 2019 James Madison (50.8)
8. 2022 North Dakota State (47.9)
9. 2021 Montana State (45.3)
10. 2023 Montana (44.9)

Every metric we analyzed indicates that Monday’s game could be an instant classic. Both teams rank much closer to recent FCS national champions, compared to the runner-ups over the past five seasons.

No. 1 Montana State will face No. 2 North Dakota State in the 2025 FCS National Championship game in Frisco, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for Jan. 6 at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN.

Behind The Numbers: FCS National Championship Preview
FCS National Championship: Offensive Spotlight
FCS National Championship: Defensive Spotlight
History Of The FCS National Championship Game
2024 FCS Playoffs: Official Bracket, Schedule, Scores

Follow FCS Football Central on social media for ongoing coverage of FCS football, including on XFacebook, and YouTube.

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Montana State's Tommy Mellott wins the 2024 Walter Payton Award

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Montana State's Tommy Mellott wins the 2024 Walter Payton Award


Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott won the 2024 Walter Payton Award as the best offensive player in FCS football, beating out fellow top-three finalists Cam Miller (North Dakota State) and Targhee Lambson (Southern Utah). Mellott is the first Montana State player to win the award in its 38-year history.

PAYTON AWARD: Complete history of the top FCS offensive honor

Mellott received the Payton Award two days before playing in the 2024-25 FCS Championship game, his second appearance of his career. In 12 regular season games, the Bobcat quarterback completed 148 of 216 passes (68.5 percent) for 1,956 yards, 22 touchdowns and just one interceptions. He also ran for 640 yards and 11 touchdowns, leading Montana State to an undefeated record.

🏈 MORE FCS FOOTBALL 🏈 

Mellott is the 27th quarterback to win the Payton Award — the most of any position — since the award debuted in 1987. Quarterbacks have won the Payton Award in each of the last nine seasons and 20 of the last 21 seasons, with wide receiver Cooper Kupp’s 2015 win being the lone exception.

As the 2024 Walter Payton Award winner, Mellott joins an elite fraternity of FCS greats including Steve McNair (Alcorn State, 1994), Adrian Peterson (Georgia Southern, 1999), Brian Westbrook (Villanova, 2001), Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois, 2002), Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington, 2015) and more.

MORE AWARDS: Buck Buchanan Award history | Jerry Rice Award history

Top moments

See some more of Mellott’s top moments from 2024 below.

 

How North Dakota State and Montana State reached the FCS national championship game

As the Bison and Bobcats near the pinnacle of the sport, let’s take a look back at their journeys.

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1 reason why each FCS semifinal team can win the title

In 2024, the final four FCS teams all have legitimate shots at winning it all. Here’s why.

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What a championship would mean for each FCS semifinal team

Four teams remain in the 2024 FCS championship chase: Montana State, South Dakota, South Dakota State and North Dakota State. Winning a title means something different for each one.

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Touchdown Tommy! Montana State’s Mellott wins Walter Payton Award as top FCS offensive player – WTOP News

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Touchdown Tommy! Montana State’s Mellott wins Walter Payton Award as top FCS offensive player – WTOP News


FRISCO, Texas (AP) — Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott won the Walter Payton Award as the Football Championship Subdivision offensive…

FRISCO, Texas (AP) — Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott won the Walter Payton Award as the Football Championship Subdivision offensive player of the year Saturday night, two days before the top-ranked Bobcats face North Dakota State in the title game.

Called Touchdown Tommy, the speedy Mellott edged North Dakota State quarterback Cam Miller and Southern Utah running back Targhee Lambson in voting announced at the FCS Awards Banquet.

The first Montana State winner of the award, Mellott had 147 points, receiving 16 first-place votes. Miller followed with 131 with 14 first-place votes and Lambson had 115 with five first-place votes.

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“Very humbling moment,” Mellott said. “I’m very, very honored.”

Mellott has led Big Sky champion Montana State to a 15-0 record. The senior from Butte, Montana, topped The Associated Press FCS All-America team and was the Walter Camp FCS Player of the Year. He leads the division in passing efficiency and points responsible for.

“It’s a surreal moment for sure,” Mellott said. “Three years ago I was on the sideline after being injured in the national championship game, and I was talking on the mic to the quarterback coach at the time, Coach (Taylor) Housewright, and he said, `If you don’t become the Walter Payton Award winner, we failed you.’ So, I think it’s just a testament to what we’ve done as a program.”

Montana State and North Dakota State are set to meet Monday night at Toyota Stadium. Bobcats coach Brent Vigen received the Eddie Robinson Award as the coach of the year.

Central Arkansas defensive end David Walker won the Buck Buchanan Award as the top defensive player.

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© 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.



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FCS National Championship Preview & Prediction: Montana State vs. North Dakota State

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FCS National Championship Preview & Prediction: Montana State vs. North Dakota State


No. 1 Montana State will face No. 2 North Dakota State in the 2025 Division I FCS National Championship game. Kickoff is scheduled for Jan. 6 at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN.

It would be Montana State’s first FCS national championship since 1984 when the Bobcats defeated Louisiana Tech in Charleston, South Carolina. North Dakota State is seeking its tenth FCS national championship, but the Bison have not won it all since 2021 when they defeated the Bobcats.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 175-46
2022-23 Record: 207-75

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Line: Montana State (-3.5)
Series History: Montana State leads 21-17

Key Players: Montana State

Tommy Mellott (QB): 190-for-276 (68.8%), 2,564 Passing Yards, 29 Passing TDs, 2 INTs, 915 Rushing Yards, 14 Rushing TDs

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Scottre Humphrey (RB): 188 Carries, 1,360 Rushing Yards, 7.2 YPC, 15 Rushing TDs

Adam Jones (RB): 173 Carries, 1,134 Rushing Yards, 6.6 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Brody Grebe (DL): 35 Total Tackles, 10 TFLs, 8.5 Sacks, 5 PBUs, 8 QBHs, 1 FF, 2 FRs

Kenneth Eiden IV (DL): 26 Total Tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 8 Sacks, 5 QBHs, 1 FR

Key Players: North Dakota State

Cam Miller (QB): 239-for-329 (72.6%), 3,052 Passing Yards, 31 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 510 Rushing Yards, 10 Rushing TDs

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CharMar Brown (RB): 227 Carries, 1,104 Rushing Yards, 4.9 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Bryce Lance (WR): 66 Receptions, 964 Receiving Yards, 14.6 YPC, 16 Receiving TDs

Logan Kopp (LB): 69 Total Tackles, 8 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 3 INTs, 6 PBUs, 1 FF, 1 FR

Eli Mostaert (DL): 56 Total Tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6 Sacks, 4 QBHs

Montana State has a chance to make history, becoming only the third team in college football history to finish 16-0, joining 2019 North Dakota State and 1894 Yale. The Bobcats have been the most dominant team in the nation all season, winning by an average of 24 points per game.

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It starts with the most electric player at the FCS level, quarterback Tommy Mellott. Mellott is completing over 68% of his passes for 2,564 yards, 29 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. He leads the nation in passing efficiency while being dangerous outside the pocket with his legs. Averaging over 8.4 yards per carry, Mellott has recorded over 900 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns for the Bobcats. His playmaking ability will test North Dakota State’s linebackers and safeties in space.

The Bobcats are averaging 301 rushing yards per game this season, ranking No. 2 nationally. The dynamic duo of Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for over 1,500 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns. Montana State’s offensive line is the catalyst for its dominance on the ground, headlined by All-American Marcus Wehr.

The Bison defense has done an excellent job of generating negative plays, which will be a huge key in this game. North Dakota State led all playoff teams with a tackle-for-loss rate of over 10%, led by Eli Mostaert (11.5 TFLs) and Kody Huisman (7.5 TFLs). The interior of the Bison defensive line has continued to be dominant, which will be something to watch against an impressive Montana State offensive line.

North Dakota State’s linebackers will be in the spotlight against this dynamic Montana State offense. Logan Kopp leads the unit with 69 total tackles, eight tackles for loss, three sacks, and three interceptions. The Bison rank No. 116 nationally in tackling this season, which will be a point of emphasis on Monday night.

While Mellott will challenge the Bison defense, North Dakota State has its own dynamic weapon in quarterback Cam Miller. Miller has completed 72.6% of his passes for 3,052 yards, 31 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. In multiple games this season, Miller has shown an elite ability to make a play when the Bison need it most, leading game-winning drives in key moments. His connection with wide receiver Bryce Lance is dangerous, leading to a single-season record 16 receiving touchdowns.

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Montana State’s secondary will be tested in this game, but the Bobcats have been outstanding against the pass, holding opponents to 190.2 passing yards per game. A key aspect of this Montana State defense is the pass rush, led by Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV. The duo has combined for 19.5 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks. North Dakota State’s offensive line allows pressure on less than 20% of all dropbacks, anchored by All-Americans Grey Zabel and Mason Miller. Will the Bobcats be able to make Miller uncomfortable in the pocket on Monday night? It will be one of the biggest keys of the game.

North Dakota State has ended Montana State’s postseason journey four times since 2018, including a dominant win over the Bobcats in the FCS National Championship game three seasons ago. Will the Bobcats finally find a way past the Bison in the postseason?

I expect an extremely competitive game on Monday night at Toyota Stadium. This North Dakota State team has silenced the doubters all season long, but there is a special feeling around this Montana State squad. From Week 0 until now, the Bobcats have been the nation’s most dominant and consistent team. Mellott leads Montana State on a game-winning drive late, securing the program’s first national championship since 1984.

Prediction: Montana State (38-31)

Behind The Numbers: FCS National Championship Preview
FCS National Championship: Offensive Spotlight
FCS National Championship: Defensive Spotlight
History Of The FCS National Championship Game
2024 FCS Playoffs: Official Bracket, Schedule, Scores

Follow FCS Football Central on social media for ongoing coverage of FCS football, including on XFacebook, and YouTube.

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