The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves meet Sunday in Game 4 of a best-of-7 Western Conference, 2nd-round series. The Timberwolves lead the series 2-1. Tip-off from Target Center is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Nuggets are starting to show signs of life in this series after a 117-90 road victory in Game 3 Friday. Denver won straight up as a 3.5-point underdog and did most of the heavy lifting to help the Over (205.5) hit.
C Nikola Jokic and G Jamal Murray each had 24 points for the Nuggets, who can regain home-court advantage with a victory Sunday.
Minnesota’s 90 points in Friday’s loss was its lowest scoring output since an 89-88 setback against the LA Clippers March 3. The Over/Under for points scored by G Anthony Edwards was set at 27.5, and he finished with 19 after taking just 15 shots (8 for 15).
The Timberwolves covered and the Under hit in the 1st 2 games of this series.
Nuggets at Timberwolves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Timberwolves -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-105) | Timberwolves -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Timberwolves key injuries
Nuggets
- G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (abdominal) questionable
- G Reggie Jackson (calf) questionable
- G Jamal Murray (calf) questionable
Timberwolves
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Nuggets at Timberwolves picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 100, Timberwolves 99
Moneyline
While I like the Nuggets (+125) at these odds, it’s tough to fade the Timberwolves (-150) in back-to-back home games. What we do know is that Minnesota’s No. 1-ranked defense should bounce back after getting blown out, and in a close, low-scoring game, this may just come down to which team gets the final possession.
PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
The defending NBA champs were grossly undervalued by the market heading into Friday. They went from 7.5-point favorites in Game 2 to 3.5-point underdogs in Game 3. That 11-point swing was way too drastic, even when accounting for change of venue.
The Nuggets have barely been upgraded since Friday’s win, and I believe that’s a mistake.
Minnesota is a young team, and its best player, Edwards, is just 22 years old. The Timberwolves faced zero adversity in a 4-game sweep of the Phoenix Suns in the 1st round. They now have to deal with the pressure of potentially giving home-court advantage back to the defending champs.
I’ll put my money on the veterans who have proven that they can win multiple playoff series.
BET NUGGETS +2.5 (-105).
Over/Under
The Under has hit in 2 of the 3 games this series, and Minnesota’s NBA-best defense should look much better after allowing 117 points in Game 3.
This is a pivotal game in the sense that a Timberwolves victory would put them just 1 win away from the conference finals and a Nuggets upset would give them back home court. Look for both teams to play conservatively and slow down the pace.
BET UNDER 204.5 (-110).
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