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Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

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Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 odds, picks and predictions


The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves meet Sunday in Game 4 of a best-of-7 Western Conference, 2nd-round series. The Timberwolves lead the series 2-1. Tip-off from Target Center is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Nuggets are starting to show signs of life in this series after a 117-90 road victory in Game 3 Friday. Denver won straight up as a 3.5-point underdog and did most of the heavy lifting to help the Over (205.5) hit.

C Nikola Jokic and G Jamal Murray each had 24 points for the Nuggets, who can regain home-court advantage with a victory Sunday.

Minnesota’s 90 points in Friday’s loss was its lowest scoring output since an 89-88 setback against the LA Clippers March 3. The Over/Under for points scored by G Anthony Edwards was set at 27.5, and he finished with 19 after taking just 15 shots (8 for 15).

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The Timberwolves covered and the Under hit in the 1st 2 games of this series.

Nuggets at Timberwolves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Timberwolves -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-105) | Timberwolves -2.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Nuggets at Timberwolves key injuries

Nuggets

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (abdominal) questionable
  • Reggie Jackson (calf) questionable
  • Jamal Murray (calf) questionable

Timberwolves

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Nuggets at Timberwolves picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 100, Timberwolves 99

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Moneyline

While I like the Nuggets (+125) at these odds, it’s tough to fade the Timberwolves (-150) in back-to-back home games. What we do know is that Minnesota’s No. 1-ranked defense should bounce back after getting blown out, and in a close, low-scoring game, this may just come down to which team gets the final possession.

PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

The defending NBA champs were grossly undervalued by the market heading into Friday. They went from 7.5-point favorites in Game 2 to 3.5-point underdogs in Game 3. That 11-point swing was way too drastic, even when accounting for change of venue.

The Nuggets have barely been upgraded since Friday’s win, and I believe that’s a mistake.

Minnesota is a young team, and its best player, Edwards, is just 22 years old. The Timberwolves faced zero adversity in a 4-game sweep of the Phoenix Suns in the 1st round. They now have to deal with the pressure of potentially giving home-court advantage back to the defending champs.

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I’ll put my money on the veterans who have proven that they can win multiple playoff series.

BET NUGGETS +2.5 (-105).

Over/Under

The Under has hit in 2 of the 3 games this series, and Minnesota’s NBA-best defense should look much better after allowing 117 points in Game 3.

This is a pivotal game in the sense that a Timberwolves victory would put them just 1 win away from the conference finals and a Nuggets upset would give them back home court. Look for both teams to play conservatively and slow down the pace.

BET UNDER 204.5 (-110).

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Denver, CO

Broncos offensive line is the engine that drives offense

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Broncos offensive line is the engine that drives offense


I’ve been covering the Denver Broncos for his entire career and I remember writing up some pretty harsh criticism of his play early on — especially in regards to holding penalties. I recall at one point he was committing holding penalties at a record-breaking rate. He was so far above the rest of the field that he’d break charts if anyone tried to chart it. The best part of that saga is that he never let the outside noise (from me and many others) get to him. He worked on his craft and he got better. And then got even better to the point where it is pretty clear that he is one of the best left tackles in all of football. He is going to go down as one of the best tackles in franchise history too when its all said and done. It’s a great comeback story.

All that said, he wasn’t the only one of the Broncos players on that offensive line to make an impact with guard Quinn Meinerz also being named a PFF All-Pro player. The whole offensive line has been dominant in nearly every category and is the main engine that has driven the offenses successes this season.

4) Denver Broncos
Team OLi Grade: 83.0
Best-Ranked OL: Garett Bolles, 89.0 (7th overall, 3rd position)
Worst-Ranked OL: Alex Palczewski, 63.5 (159th overall, 61st position)

And one more to complete the picture comes from Sharp Football Analysis who has the Broncos ranked fifth-overall in their NFL Offensive Line Stats:

There is so much evidence that shows the trenches on both side of the ball is what has brought the success of the 2025 Broncos. It’s an area that Sean Payton has said in the past is always an area of focus. He knows you don’t win consistently if your team is being dominated in the trenches.

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Here’s how the NFL typically handles the top seeded team’s Divisional Round schedule

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Here’s how the NFL typically handles the top seeded team’s Divisional Round schedule


As the number one seed in the AFC, the Denver Broncos could end up playing on either Saturday or Sunday. It all comes down to which teams win during Wild Card weekend.

Head Coach Sean Payton was asked about the potential Divisional Round schedule and he said nothing is finalized. However, the NFL has been known to follow a certain schedule that could end up with the Broncos playing on Saturday if either the Buffalo Bills or Los Angeles Chargers win on Sunday and they’d play the following Sunday only if they had to wait until Monday for the outcome of the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers game.

The other thing with that extra week off is about preparation. One of the better questions the media asked of Payton on Friday was whether or not they do more advanced scouting on potential opponents they have not yet played this season.

“Look, there are four options,” Payton said. “One is in the division. We’ve played one two years in a row—or it feels like that with Houston. Buffalo. We’ll break down kind of all four and then look at… We’ll have personnel reports on the four… You do have enough time to look at third down, look at personnel packages, study situational football. I think that’s pretty common when you look at playoff history. A lot of times, you end up with a division team sometimes in the first round. I know that’s happened a number of times over the years with me. It’s hard to gauge how these other games are going to go not having spent much time looking at New England. [We’ve] seen Jacksonville. It’s one of those where you just watch them. You’re working while you watch them. You’re working on each plan, and then you go from there.”

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I came away feeling like Payton and the Broncos know two of their potential opponents fairly well. The other two will get some high level review, but nothing super deep as there just isn’t enough time. That is saved for this coming week when the opponent is finalized.

Payton and his staff have some great experience coaching in the playoffs, so this young Broncos team should be well-prepared for their football game.

Frankly, I like the idea of the Broncos getting their game out of the way early. Give Payton and his staff an extra day to begin the prep work needed for the AFC Championship game provided they come out with a win in the Divisional Round.



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Denver, CO

Denver weather: Snow tails off Friday, but morning commute could be slick

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Denver weather: Snow tails off Friday, but morning commute could be slick


The waves of snow that fell across Denver Thursday were expected to diminish Friday morning, but the roads could be slick for commuters, a weather forecaster said. The National Weather Service in Boulder said to expect a 40% chance of snow across Denver on Friday with a high temperature reaching about 34 degrees. That’s about […]



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