The Utah Jazz will be taking on their final game of 2024 on Monday when the Denver Nuggets travel to the Delta Center, as the Jazz hope to avoid adding to yet another ugly losing streak.

This will be the third time this season the Jazz and Nuggets have faced off, with Denver taking control both times so far by at least 19 points in each. For Monday Utah will hope to not suffer the same fate.

The obvious key player on the Nuggets to lock onto tonight for Utah will be none other than two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who’s off to yet another strong start to his season. He’s averaging 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists on 57.1% shooting from the field and an absurd 50% clip from deep on 4.5 three-point attempts per night.

It’ll be a long night defensively for the Jazz, and especially for their interior anchor Walker Kessler, but the Nuggets have actually tended to struggle when playing in Salt Lake City in recent history. In the past ten years, Denver has collected a 3-15 record when stationed in Utah. However, two of those victories have come within their previous two meetings on the Jazz’s home floor.

With that, here’s everything you need to know ahead of the Jazz’s Monday night battle vs. the Nuggets:

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If you have an event taking place in the Denver area, email information to carlotta.olson@gazette.com at least two weeks in advance. All events are listed in the calendar on space availability.

Monday

Free Downtown Trolley Rides — See the downtown decorations, 5-7 p.m., pickup/drop-off points Encore Garage Entrance on South Street between Wilcox and Perry Street and Douglas County School District Parking Lot Entrance on 6th Street Wilcox and Perry Street, Castle Rock; crgov.com/2622/season-of-the-star.

Sippin’ Santa Pop-up Bar — 5-11 p.m., Bernard’s Tiki Room, The Arvada Tavern, 5707 Olde Wadsworth Blvd., Arvada. Reservations include a $10 non-refundable fee and are for 1 hour and 15 minutes: arvadatavern.com/sippin-santa.

Alex Heffron Quartet — 6:30 p.m., Dazzle at Baur’s, 1080 14th St., Denver, go online for prices. Tickets: dazzledenver.com/#/events.

Sipping N’ Painting Hampden — “Winter Bridge,” 6:30-8:30 p.m., Sipping N’ Painting Hampden, 6461 E. Hampden Ave., Denver, $35. Registration required: sippingnpaintinghampden.com.

Slim Cessna’s Auto Club, Rattlesnake Milk & DJ Ryan Wong — 8 p.m., Hi-Dive, 7 S. Broadway, Denver, $25.14. Tickets: hi-dive.com/events.

Umphrey’s McGee — 8 p.m., Boulder Theater, 2032 14th St., Boulder, $131 and up. Tickets: axs.com.

“Wild Things: The Art of Maurice Sendak” — Through Feb. 17, Denver Art Museum, 100 W. 14th Ave. Parkway, Denver, go online for prices: denverartmuseum.org.

“Vanity & Vice: American Art Deco” — Through June 1, Kirkland Museum of Fine & Decorative Art, 1201 Bannock St., Denver. Go online for prices. Tickets: kirklandmuseum.org.

“The 90s: Last Decade Before the Future” — Through Oct. 25, History Colorado Center, 1200 Broadway, Denver, go online for prices: historycolorado.org/exhibit/the-90s.

Monday-Tuesday

Greensky Bluegrass — 8 p.m., Mission Ballroom, 4242 Wynkoop St., Denver, $67.89 and up. Tickets: axs.com.

Sqwerv — 8 p.m., Lost Lake Lounge, 3602 E. Colfax Ave., Denver, $23.60-$43.41. Tickets: lost-lake.com.

CARLOTTA OLSON, The Denver Gazette

Against the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. made excellent plays near the end of regulation, putting the team in a position to tie or win the game. Down by one point with eight seconds left in regulation, Broncos head coach Sean Payton decided to go for the extra point, bringing the game to a 24-all score.

This led to overtime, where the Broncos eventually lost to the Bengals 30-24. While Payton’s decision to forego the two-point attempt may have seemed like the right one, it wasn’t, and there are a few reasons why. 

First up, you have the defense’s performance. Sure, the Broncos had two fourth-down stops on the Bengals’ first two drives and a fumble recovery. The Broncos also hadn’t forced a single Bengals punt in regulation. The Broncos defense allowed all but two of the Bengals’ drives to go for 50-plus yards, one of which was Patrick Surtain II’s forced fumble. 

Cornerback Riley Moss was exploited all game, and Ja’Quan McMillian was also a problem for the Broncos. Denver’s linebackers were having issues, and one of its two safeties played a good game.

The only aspect of the Broncos defense that had a strong showing overall was the defensive line and one of their outside linebackers. Nik Bonitto was held to a quiet game, and while Jonathon Cooper had some plays, he also made many mistakes. Dondrea Tillman had the best night of that group. 

With how the Broncos defense had performed until then, Payton was remiss in trusting them in overtime to keep the Bengals out of the end zone. It was great to see the Broncos force a punt on the Bengals’ first overtime drive, only to be let down by an offense that used a questionable play-calling sequence.

The Broncos allowed the Bengals to move down the field into field goal range. Cincy missed, which bailed out the defense, only for Nix and the offense to go three-and-out for the second time in overtime. 

The Broncos defense then crumbled, allowing the Bengals to move the ball downfield and score the game-winning touchdown. The Broncos defense had struggled all night, and, again, it was misguided at best and wrong at worst for Payton to trust them in overtime. While that’s the defense’s vulnerability was the biggest reason he was wrong to pass on the two-point attempt at the end of regulation, there were other factors, too.

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Now, regarding two-point conversions, Payton has attempted 48 of them as a head coach. He’s been successful on 21 two-point attempts in his coaching career, including 4-of-8 as Broncos head coach.

Another reason Payton erred by not attempting the two-point conversion is that this team is aggressive and was a play away from clinching a playoff spot. Even with the Kansas City Chiefs expected to rest starters next week, a win isn’t guaranteed for Denver. Payton built this team to be aggressive, and yet he was conservative at this moment. 

How do we know that? Well, Payton said it himself. The Broncos were ready to go for two until they realized a tie would still get them into the playoffs.

So, the Broncos played for the tie, which brings this back to the first point: Payton’s misguided trust in the defense. Payton’s offense wasn’t doing well for most of the game, but it got the job done against some pretty stiff odds, so keep trusting them to get this win. Going for two also would’ve sent a loud message to the whole team. 

Speaking of the offense getting the job done, that final drive wasn’t the prettiest, but they got into the end zone on an extraordinary play and catch. Momentum was with the Broncos, they were running the ball exceptionally well, and the football gods were giving them all the right breaks.

The Broncos would’ve had a lot of options open for what to call to get them the two yards, especially with Nix’s ability with his legs. Denver had the Bengals’ defense on its heels, especially with that final play, and Payton should’ve looked to exploit that. 

Yes, if the Broncos had failed on a two-point, they would have lost. However, that still would’ve been better than playing for the tie, as Payton admitted was a big part of his logic calculation.

When you play not to lose, you end up losing often. Broncos Country has seen this with multiple coaches over the years and even with Payton over the past two. He has a lot of trust in the quarterback he chose to lead this team, and in that critical moment, the chips were down, and Payton’s decision didn’t show trust in the young quarterback he handpicked.

What does the data say about overtime? Over the past 10 years in the NFL, the away team has won 41.6% of overtime games, with 6.11% ending in a tie, which is what Payton was playing for (more on that later). Playing for an overtime win came with a success probability of less than 50%, and that’s in a vacuum, without considering anything else. 

That’s a 43.75% success rate in his career and a 50% success rate as the Broncos coach. So, there is a combined 47.7% chance of an overtime win or tie for a road team compared to Payton’s 43.75% success rate on two-point conversions. When the other factors above come into play, attempting the two-point conversion would be the logical decision. 

Payton’s job isn’t dependent on a playoff spot, and he has two years (at least) before his seat even gets hot. With nine wins, he has this team overachieving this year, but in back-to-back games, his gaffes with end-of-half or end-of-game situations have hurt the team.

Yes, hindsight is 20/20 and many out there were okay with Payton’s decision to play for overtime. But let’s be clear; it was the wrong decision, and it came back to bite the Broncos.

Hopefully, it doesn’t blow back on Denver even more by losing to the Chiefs and missing the playoffs. The Broncos are still a win away, and they had their chance to clinch. Let’s hope the story ends differently in Denver’s last bite at the apple.

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