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After Further Review: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

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After Further Review: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills


The wild card game had expedited replay reviews but no challenge. There were a total of ten accepted penalties for a total of seventy two penalty yards. The penalties did not determine the outcome for or against the Denver Broncos, and while there were some hiccups the officials also had some notable successes. The Buffalo Bills played a better overall game, and the officials kept the game moving and focused hard on keeping emotions under control for both playoff teams.

Bo Nix Runs Into the Bills Bench

One of the most terrifying plays in football is when in a highly emotional game a player gets tackled into the opposing bench. This is a red alert for officials and for several reasons. First, the player is hilariously out-manned on the sideline, making it very easy for situations to escalate. Second, if things escalate even a little bit, the bench can get involved without breaking the rules about leaving the sideline for a scuffle, while the opposing team cannot. Third, many offensive linemen are coached that especially if it’s the quarterback out of bounds, they need to defend their guy, and want to come to his help. There is basically no situation on a bench that is going to be improved by adding 1500 lbs of hostility. So for these and other reasons, officials are drilled to react fast to plays out of bounds to the bench.The wing secures the spot but pivots (and frequently steps onto the field of play) to have a clear and unobstructed view of as much of the sideline as possible. The referee and the closest deep wing crash hard, to put neutral bodies on the sidelines and hopefully calm any tensions.

In this game, this very situation happened ten minutes into the game when Nix scrambled into the Bills bench. It took referee Bill Vinovich three seconds to get there from approximately 20 yards upfield, and field judge Jabir Walker took a much less impressive six seconds to arrive from approximately thirty five yards downfield. These officials had other post-play responsibilities, but covered a large distance fast. As normally happens when the officials use their deescalating mechanics correctly, nothing happened on the sideline and probably no one noticed the situation. Which is entirely the point, and it was reasonably well executed. In this case, it appeared that a Buffalo substitute wanted to help up Buffalo linebacker Matt Milano, and basically shoved Nix in his attempt to do so. This was really stupid of the substitute, and could have gotten very nasty fast, but deescalated into nothing. I would not have hated an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the sideline for the call (depending on what was said), but did not mind the no call either.

Aiding the Runner

It is against the rules for an offensive player to pull a runner forward. They are allowed to push the runner from behind (controversially so), and allowed to push defenders (though not pull them – that would be holding). This foul has not been enforced in a game in over thirty years, but that does not make it less relevant. When Bills lineman Dion Dawkins clearly pulled runner James forward in the first quarter it should have been called as a foul. This would have set the Bills up with a first and 17 instead of a gain of 16. It is hard to call “exotic” penalties that rarely get called, especially in the playoffs, but it was an egregious foul and a huge no-call.

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Surtain Holding Missed

Mixed crew officiating is tough on the little things. There are some definitive rules for which officials should be observing which players at which times, but there is more art than science to it on some plays. The Bills and announcers highlighted one play in the third quarter where Surtain clearly committed holding, but it went uncalled. Replay shows that Surtain was right in front of back judge Jimmy Russell, and that Russell was looking elsewhere. This was not a bad play by Russell, who had another assignment on the play. At the snap the covering official on tight end Dalton Kincaid was Frank Steratore. Its also not obvious (though it is probable) that it was Steratore’s fault. Someone should have caught the interference, but with a mixed crew there is the chance one official switched faster to zone coverage than the other. Officials always start passing plays in “man” on the offense, and switch to “zone” coverage no later than when the ball is away, though knowing when the ball is away without watching the passer is an art in itself. It is also possible that Steratore had a bad angle on the hold, though it looked fairly obvious from most angles. The end result helped the Broncos, but it was a bad missed call.

Referee Bill Vinovich Talks with Allen

After a timeout, cameras showed a replay of Referee Bill Vinovich talking on Bills sideline with Josh Allen. I have heard a number of complaints about this in the context that referees prefer “star” quarterbacks and give them special treatment. This is a really complicated topic to understand, so I want to explain in depth why people are wrong to think that.

First, most people assume that football is basically the same everywhere, and with a few exceptions they are correct. One of the exceptions has to do with media and time outs. Almost no high school games are broadcast by media, and those that are typically do not have media timeouts. College games range from almost never having media timeouts, to minute plus timeouts on minor games, to major network games typically having ~3:30 media timeouts every change of possession. The NFL has smaller media timeouts than big college games, typically blocking out ~2:30 per timeout. So, in the professional game, unlike in high school or most college games, officials have relatively large blocks of time off. This is extremely welcome, and helps officials do our jobs better. We can coordinate observations on formations, play types, borderline calls, warnings we have given, etc. Most importantly, we can answer rules questions. Officials are always allowed to discuss the game with the teams (though obviously we take enormous efforts to avoid giving an unfair advantage via this). Most of these conversations are player or coach initiated, but officials will frequently seek out players, especially if they are doing something potentially dangerous to themselves or others, or if the player seems to have a shortening fuse. However, most players and coaches are fairly overwhelmed by the pace of the game, and are not really in the space mentally to discuss things with officials. We try our best to have these conversations in ways that will not impact the game. For example – if there is a minor offensive line problem, we will try to tell a defensive coach we want a chat with the offensive line coach after the next change of possession, so that we are not distracting him while the offense is out on the field or getting ready (this also changes a lot by the level of football as to how many coaches or players are on the team). By this logic though, players who are seasoned veterans like Josh Allen tend to have chats with the officials more frequently than younger players, because the veterans are playing a slower game and have more head space to interact with officials. It is a known flaw that this can give veterans, especially veteran quarterbacks a small advantage by this. However, the advantage is in their processing and their headspace, not in our treatment of the veteran, or in other words, it’s a skill issue. In short, there is nothing wrong or strange with Vinovich discussing something with Allen. Its what we want to be able to do with all players all the time.

I will say I found it deeply weird that Vinovich patted Allen on the back. I had an internal rule (not in the rules or mechanics) about never deliberately touching a player or coach under almost any circumstances, and it served me extremely well. This is not a universal thing, but I am amazed that it has not caught on more. Vinovich clearly has different habits than I do on this front, but I still found it bizarre.

Payton/Nix Delay of Game Watch

Denver burned one time out on getting a play in, and had two other plays where the snap barely beat the play clock. Sean Payton and Bo Nix have work to do in the off-season on this.

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Official Evaluation

I charted three bad calls in the game. Two were discussed above, and one was an illegal formation, which while I continue to note them, the league does not want enforced anymore so the officials are not being graded down on. There were six questionable calls in the game, including the Kincaid catch late that probably was not one, as well as the final non-interception by Nix that might have been one. The questionable calls were pretty low leverage except for the Kincaid catch. The spots in the game were playoff caliber. I noted three spots throughout the game that I disagreed with, but none were off by even a yard, and none were in high leverage situations. The officials were very quick to whistle that forward progress had stopped. This is a choice that can de escalate fierce games, but also cuts down on fun running plays. I generally favor slower whistles, but it was consistent throughout and certainly within the realm of valid philosophies. Back Judge Jimmy Russell has relatively under-performed as an official through his career, but I was impressed by his work in this game.

I am not a Bill Vinovich fan. But the NFL consistently likes his style, and in this game you can see why. Vinovich moves things along fairly expeditiously, and places a heavy priority on calming tensions and making the game less prone to escalation. The short wings, who regularly work with Vinovich were interesting enough this game that I am eager to see their work next year.

Mailbag

What is the most unrealistic representation about officials in the media?

I am not sure if this question was about entertainment or punditry, so I will answer for both. For entertainment (in movies or tv shows about football), its coaches arguing calls about the goal line. The reality is coaches are not allowed to move closer to the goal line than 25 yards away, and so they always have a terrible view of goal line plays and no mechanism to argue unless they call time out specifically to do so. For pundits, they underestimate officials – how much they work on the rulebook, how much they practice, and how experienced NFL officials are (most have officiated 15+ years before their rookie year in the NFL).

I will have a few more regular columns talking about how different Broncos officials did in the playoffs before we get into the off-season schedule. Thanks for reading this year and for all the questions throughout the year. And lets always remember, its the officials fault!



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Barnstable leads St. Thomas against Denver after 28-point outing

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Barnstable leads St. Thomas against Denver after 28-point outing


TOP PERFORMERS: Barnstable is scoring 14.9 points per game and averaging 2.7 rebounds for the Tommies.

Nicholas Shogbonyo is scoring 14.3 points per game with 4.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists for the Pioneers.

LAST 10 GAMES: Tommies: 9-1, averaging 89.3 points, 27.0 rebounds, 15.3 assists, 7.3 steals and 3.0 blocks per game while shooting 51.7% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 77.8 points per game.

Pioneers: 2-8, averaging 72.6 points, 24.7 rebounds, 11.9 assists, 7.1 steals and 2.4 blocks per game while shooting 44.3% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 83.1 points.

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The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.



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Denver 16th Street Mall stabbings suspect charged with first degree murder

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Denver 16th Street Mall stabbings suspect charged with first degree murder


Elijah Caudill, the suspect in a series of random knife attacks last weekend in Denver, is now facing first degree murder charges.

Elijah Caudill

Denver Police

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The Denver District Attorney’s Office announced the formal charges on Friday. Caudill, 24, is facing two counts of first degree murder, two counts of attempted first degree murder and two counts of assault.

Three of the stabbings happened in the area of the 16th Street Mall downtown on Saturday night and one happened on Sunday. Caudill was arrested soon after the fourth attack and first appeared in Denver court on Monday.

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Elijah Caudill in a Denver courtroom on Monday morning. 

CBS


Two people died — Celinda Levno, 71, and Nicholas Burkett, 34. The other victims haven’t been identified.

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In announcing the charges Denver District Attorney Walsh said his office will “prosecute this case to the full extent of the law.”

“Our thoughts are with the victims of these terrible attacks and their families,” he said in a prepared statement.

While the crimes were apparently random in nature, Denver police said after the attacks that they have added additional security along 16th Street for added security presence.

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Nuggets Journal: Will Russell Westbrook stay in starting lineup when Denver is healthy?

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Nuggets Journal: Will Russell Westbrook stay in starting lineup when Denver is healthy?


As Aaron Gordon’s calf heals, Michael Malone faces what can only be described as a good problem.

The Nuggets have been steadily trending in the right direction, even while dealing with a variety of injuries to starters, most notably Gordon. During the most recent nine-game stretch that he spent on the sideline, Malone went small with his starting lineup, opting to start Russell Westbrook instead of Peyton Watson and repurposing Michael Porter Jr. as a power forward.

The results have been successful enough to raise the question of whether Westbrook should remain in the starting lineup with Denver at full strength.

“We’ll jump off that bridge when we get to it,” Malone said this week in Dallas. “We’re gonna take a really cautious approach with Aaron Gordon. … Everything’s on the table. We’re gonna do whatever’s best for our team.”

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Gordon is currently on a tight minutes restriction, which allows Malone to bring him off the bench and delay any lineup decisions. But the fact that Malone has not ruled out the possibility of a change to the starting five is, of course, an indication that he’s considering it.

It’s a problem because none of Denver’s five regular starters have done anything to warrant what risks coming across as a demotion. It’s a good problem because having more than five players worthy of starting is ultimately a refreshing situation for a team facing broader concerns about its depth.

So how should Malone navigate this? First, someone has to be identified as the most sensible player for Westbrook to replace. Jamal Murray is firmly off the table. His efficiency as a secondary scorer has improved throughout the season, and even if that wasn’t the case, he has meant too much to the franchise to consider benching. Michael Porter Jr. should be off the table as well. He has been far too good, and his floor spacing is far too essential.

There’s more of an argument that can be made for Gordon coming off the bench permanently — he’s versatile and selfless enough to be effective in any lineup, and Denver’s starters excelled while he was out. But again, overall cache within the organization should be taken into account. Gordon, Porter, Murray and Nikola Jokic make up the “core four” responsible for a championship.

That leaves Christian Braun, a third-year player and first-year starter who often operates as Denver’s lead defensive guard — a role Westbrook also occupies occasionally.

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Malone has consistently praised the 23-year-old Braun throughout his transition into the starting five, where he’s replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. At the 40-game mark. the Nuggets’ status-quo lineup — the core four plus Braun — had a 5.1 net rating in 220 minutes of playing time.

When it’s the core four plus Westbrook, Denver’s net rating is 16.9, albeit in a much smaller sample size of 48 minutes.

Crucially, Jokic looms over all analytics. He is the constant variable. When he is on the floor, the net rating is always going to be in the black, almost regardless of how Malone builds the lineup around him.

Jokic’s rest minutes are more fraught with danger. Malone described them earlier this season as “man’s search for meaning.”

So which player is better equipped to handle minutes without the MVP?

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When Braun and Jokic are on the floor together and Westbrook is off (499 minutes), the Nuggets have a 10.6 net rating. Westbrook on the court, without Jokic and Braun, is a minus-13.9 (233 minutes).

Now flip it around: When Westbrook and Jokic are on the floor and Braun is off (217 minutes), the Nuggets have a 6.1 net rating. Braun, without Jokic and Westbrook, is a plus 4.4 (144 minutes).

Those numbers illuminate the nuance of the situation. Both players benefit from playing alongside Jokic, but Westbrook lineups in particular have thrived with Jokic and struggled without. Westbrook’s greatest strength in Denver has been his chemistry with the center. When Jokic has the ball, Russ looks to cut. When Russ has the ball, he looks to feed Jokic. They’re the No. 3 assist duo in the NBA, and they’ve played 100 fewer minutes together than the top two combos.

Regardless of whether Westbrook is starting or coming off the bench, then, Malone will want to keep maximizing the veteran point guard’s minutes with Jokic.

But there’s a delicate balance between optimizing that combo and empowering Braun, who represents the long-term future of the Jokic-era Nuggets. Entering the starting lineup has been a key stage in his development, allowing him to play through shooting slumps; prosper as a top-three fast-break scorer in the league; and learn from his increased defensive reps against star guards and forwards.

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There’s also a spacing dynamic to consider once Gordon is back in the starting lineup. He’s 42% from the 3-point line, which has been a massive boost for Denver’s short-on-shooting roster, but opponents may still feel inclined to sag off Gordon when he plays on the perimeter. The NBA is and always will be a reputation-based league. And Westbrook’s infamous reputation as a 3-point shooter has been etched in scouting reports for years. Teams will always dare him to fire away.

Like Gordon, Westbrook deserves credit. He’s making 33% of his 3s in Denver, his highest clip since the 2016-17 MVP season. But with him and Gordon on the floor together, the Nuggets are still asking for a clogged interior.

When Jokic, Gordon and Westbrook are on the court and Braun is off, their net rating is minus-6.4 (74 minutes). Most of that damage is done when one of Murray or Porter is also on the bench, accentuating the need for two shooters to be on the floor with that three-man lineup.

Braun is still trying to establish his own reputation as a 3-point threat. But when he, Jokic and Gordon are on the floor and Westbrook is off, the team’s net rating is 5.9 (265 minutes). The defensive metrics are almost identical between those lineup variations; the offensive gap is 11 points per 100 possessions.

You could keep going down the rabbit hole of combinations from there. The layers to a decision like this are endless, and it’s possible there is no wrong answer — only pros and cons for Malone and his staff to weigh.

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“We’ll evaluate as a staff when we are fully healthy what lineup gives us the best chance to go out there and win games at a high level,” he said. “I like how we’re playing right now. Our defense is much improved. Our 3-point defense is much improved. But whether we continue to bring Russ off the bench when we’re healthy or he starts, those are conversations that we’ll continue to have internally.”

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