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Colorado’s workforce has been shrinking since September — and that could spell trouble

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Colorado’s workforce has been shrinking since September — and that could spell trouble


Buried deep within an otherwise routine state employment report for December is a troubling mystery. Colorado is starting to see an alarmingly large number of workers go missing.

Colorado’s labor force shrank 0.6% year-over-year last month, a monthly decline matching the pace seen during the Great Recession. After flatlining in August, the labor force, those working or looking for work, has been retreating since September. For the year, 20,280 people vanished from its ranks, mostly in the fourth quarter.

That has never happened outside a severe recession or economic shock like the COVID-19 pandemic.

From April 2020 to March 2021, workers removed themselves from the labor force in record numbers. Giving up a paycheck to avoid landing on a respirator seemed like a fair trade-off to many older workers during the pandemic. The defections were unprecedented, triggering a 3.4% drop in the labor force in July 2020. But they were short-lived. People returned once restrictions eased and vaccines became available.

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Another 12-month stretch of a draining labor pool occurred from September 2009 to August 2010 during the housing crash and Great Recession. People couldn’t easily replace the jobs they lost. Many gave up trying. That contributed to annual declines of 0.7% and 0.6% during the worst months.

The mother of all Colorado labor force deflations happened from July 1985 to June 1989. It started during a severe oil and gas downturn, which was followed by a lending crisis, which was followed by a collapse in commercial real estate and home values. It was such an ugly period economically that companies and people packed their bags and left the state in droves.

The year-over-year drops reached a high of 0.9% and 0.8% in 1989, but most months ran lower, with some positive months mixed in. But all those Colorado natives kept graduating from high school and college. The unemployment rose to as high as 8.4% in December 1985 and January 1986. The workers who stayed gutted it out. Better times returned in the 1990s.

There is no health crisis keeping people home, no recession triggering major layoffs and no collapse in a pillar of the state economy. So what might be driving the decline in the number of workers?

The easy out is to blame statistical noise. The household survey — used to determine the size of the labor force and the unemployment rate — is subject to revisions. The federal government shutdown in October might have mucked things up. Below-average snowfalls might have reduced demand for resort workers. The list goes on.

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But the decline is large and accelerating, and it started before the shutdown. It likely reflects a real shift, said Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the Business Research Division at the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder.

“I think the current softening could be a mixture of both the market (demographics) and policy,” he said.

One demographic piece involves more workers retiring. The mirror doesn’t lie. Colorado’s population is getting older. The long-predicted silver tsunami may finally be sucking workers out of the labor pool. But aging is a slow-moving trend, not akin to an earthquake.

Migration is a more plausible force behind what is happening. Colorado lost 12,100 more people than it gained from other states in the year through June 30, according to a population update Tuesday from the U.S. Census Bureau.

That trend may have accelerated in the second half of the year based on what is happening to the labor force. Colorado’s net domestic migration is down sharply since the pandemic. Blame higher housing costs and fewer job opportunities. More longtime residents appear to be picking up and moving out. Last year, Colorado became one of five states with significantly more outbound than inbound moves, according to a survey by United Van Lines.

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From the reopening of the economy following the pandemic through 2024, Colorado saw big increases in the number of people arriving from other countries. Migration to Colorado historically has been 80% domestic and 20% international. That ratio flipped this decade, according to the State Demography Office.

In the 12 months through June 30, the state’s net international migration of 15,356 was enough to offset the loss of 12,100 domestically last year. The combined number was weak, but it wasn’t negative. For the last several years, it appears international migration helped mask the weakness the state was facing on the domestic side.

And the mask has been removed. This is where policy shock comes into play.

Voters, upset with the immigration surge and inflation, elected Donald Trump to office. His administration has moved quickly to shut down flows across the border and remove illegal immigrants. The administration has also tightened down on legal channels of immigration, requiring more vetting and in-person interviews, delaying application processing and even reversing earlier green card approvals.

“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau, in a news release Tuesday. “With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today.”

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Lewandowski notes that the labor force shrank in a dozen states in December, and 19 states had growth rates below 1%. Wyoming led the country on the downside with a 2.5% decline. Vermont and Wisconsin also dropped more than 2%. Illinois, Virginia and Connecticut had declines above 1%.

“I certainly think the lack of international migration has to be playing a role as we don’t have replacements,” said Richard Wobbekind, a senior economist with the Business Research Division, of the shrinking labor force.

More older workers are retiring each year. Years of a subdued birth rate mean fewer young adults are entering the workforce. Colorado has become less attractive to young adults living in other states, and with each passing year, there are fewer of them to recruit. Now immigration has been throttled.

That may explain why the state’s unemployment rate has managed to drop significantly despite fairly weak job growth. It fell from 4.6% a year ago to 3.8%. Normally, a falling unemployment rate is associated with a strong job market. But job gains are a little over a third of their historical pace since 1990. The last two years have been the weakest outside of a recession.

Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls increased by 23,000, with 18,900 of those jobs coming in the private sector and governments adding 4,100 jobs, according to the December employment report from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

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Colorado State football 2026 outlook from national experts

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Colorado State football 2026 outlook from national experts


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Happy college football prediction month!

July is when preseason projections hit for the upcoming season.

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The Colorado State football team is approaching the first preseason camp under new coach Jim Mora, which brings hopes of a new beginning after the Rams went 2-10 in 2025.

Here’s a look at how some of the national outlets project the Rams to fare in 2026:

Athlon Sports

The national college football magazine projection for 2026 picks CSU to finish seventh in the eight-team league.

Tight end Juice Vereen is the only Ram Athlon projects to be first-team all-conference. The magazine also lists Vereen as its No. 10 in the top transfers section.

Oklahoma State transfer Hauss Hejny is the No. 3 player in Athlon’s top transfers, with the magazine saying, “Hejny is a former blue-chip recruit who showed promise for the Cowboys.”

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The magazine projects Boise State to beat San Diego State in the Pac-12 title game. It does not project a bowl appearance for CSU.

Phil Steele

Steele has one of the most well-known college football preview magazines. He also projects CSU seventh ahead of only Oregon State in the Pac-12.

Steele on the QB room, led by Hejny and UConn transfer K’saan Farrar: “Despite the inexperience, this unit should top last year’s stats.”

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Mora will “have to work his magic” in the offensive line room, Steele says, due to just eight career starts within the group. On the defensive line, Steele says that unit is the strength of the team “with great depth.”

Steele says Mora will “craft a run-oriented offense as (tight end) is the strength” and that the offense should “top last year’s numbers by over a TD per game.”

Overall, Steele says CSU is “stronger on both sides of the ball” and that the Rams are improved and “will win more games but it looks like a rebuilding year. Can Mora work another miracle?”

Betting odds

Some early win total betting lines for CSU include BetMGM with an over/under line of 3.5 wins for the Rams and FanDuel listing CSU with a line of 4.5 wins.

ESPN

ESPN’s FPI computer model has the Rams last in the Pac-12 with a win-loss projection of 3.6 wins and 7.5 losses. Basically, that means ESPN’s model projects between three and four regular season wins for CSU.

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How do these rankings compare to a year ago?

Offseason projections get trickier every year in this era of college football with immense roster changes each season. That’s especially true in the case of CSU ahead of the 2026 season, where a new head coach means about a 75% roster turnover.

So, projections are to be taken with caution. A look at the picks from a year ago show why.

  • Athlon: Projected CSU fifth in the Mountain West, to play for a bowl and that QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi “should compete for All-Mountain West honors.”
  • Steele: Projected CSU fifth in the MW as well.
  • Betting odds: Projected CSU to win six or seven regular season games.
  • ESPN: Projected CSU to win six or seven games.
  • Reality: In the end, CSU went 2-10, finished last in the MW, Fowler-Nicolosi was benched and eventually left the team, and coach Jay Norvell was fired.

Sports reporter Kevin Lytle can be found on social media on X, Instagram and Threads @Kevin_Lytle and on Bluesky.





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Colorado buyers gain options as Western Slope housing market rebalances

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Colorado buyers gain options as Western Slope housing market rebalances


Colorado’s housing market wrapped up the spring season with more inventory than in previous years, setting up an active summer for buyers — even as economic and political uncertainty continues to drive up prices.

Colorado continued its momentum toward a “balanced and sustainable environment” in May, according to a Colorado Association of Realtors’ market trends report released in June.

Demand remained steady statewide, but buyers gained more choices thanks to higher overall inventory. New listings dropped nearly 14% in May compared to the same month last year, but pending sales increased 7%. This indicates spring buyers were more active than they were in 2025 despite affordability challenges.



“Summer visitors are beginning to arrive, and buyers and sellers are testing the waters for what many expect to be a busy season,” said Dana Cottrell, president of the Altitude Realtors Association, in the report.

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Median and average sales prices rose across the state, up 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively, for the month. The median sales price for single-family homes sat at $565,000 — up $15,000 year over year — and $400,000 for condos and townhomes, which saw a modest 1.7% drop. Sellers are, for the most part, receiving close to 99% of a home’s list price, down a feeble -0.1% year over year.



Accompanying May’s higher prices was an increase in the average time a home spent on the market, jumping to 56 days from 53 in 2025.

Although sales were down slightly across the state, inventory remains significantly healthier than the historically low levels of recent years, with 4.3 months of supply statewide.

A balanced real estate market is traditionally indicated by four to six months of supply, measuring the time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the existing pace of sales. Anything less than four months would be a seller’s market (demand outpaces supply), while anything more than six would benefit buyers (supply outpaces demand).

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While a useful indicator, it can often be unreliable on its own for determining market health in rural Colorado counties due to low sales volume and fragmented property types. Months supply is often over the six-month threshold in ski towns because homes take longer to sell, and don’t automatically point to a buyer’s market.

Rural counties on the Western Slope recorded a larger supply of homes in May for the most part — ranging from 5.5 months supply in Summit County for single-family homes to 10.5 and 8.4 months supply in Pitkin and Grand counties, respectively, according to May 2026 data from the Colorado Association of Realtors.

“Sellers are facing more competition and must price strategically, while buyers see benefit from selection and negotiating power,” the report states. “Overall, the market reflects normalization, with stable pricing, improving affordability and steady buyer activity providing a more sustainable housing environment across the state.”

On the Western Slope, higher inventory brings more negotiation power for buyers, who are becoming more active compared to this time last year. Many buyers are still moving forward despite the combination of rising prices, rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.

Western Slope counties see rise in buyer activity

Similar to statewide trends, some mountain towns in Colorado’s western rural counties are seeing higher inventory compared to past years, offering more options for potential buyers.

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Grand County, for example, saw sidelined buyers begin re-entering the market after a year of waiting for opportunities to improve, according to Monica Graves, a realtor in the area. These buyers returned to the market with more negotiating power than they’ve had during the last few years.

Sellers in Grand County, on the other hand, are facing increasing competition. As more housing projects pop up around mountain towns, buyers have more inventory to choose from compared to recent spring and summer seasons. The result is steadying demand and a return to a balanced mountain real estate market, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors report.

“May 2026 felt like the market finally woke up from winter,” Graves said in the report. “Resort buyers are still attracted to the area’s year-round recreation and proximity to Denver, but they are taking longer to make decisions.”

Steamboat Springs saw a similar trend in May, with higher year-over-year inventory despite entering 2026 with fewer new listings across all property types. Single-family inventory was down 4.5% and multi-family inventory was down 21.9% compared to last year, the report states.

Sales for single-family homes were stronger to end the spring season, but homes took longer to sell, averaging 90 days on the market year-to-date.

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Summit County’s spring inventory also remained above the “extremely limited levels” seen during the pandemic years, according to Cottrell, giving buyers more options and negotiating power. Single-family home sales were up 27% with a 20% bump in listings in May 2026 compared to 2025, while multi-family homes saw a 32% drop in sales and a 15% decline in new listings.

Listings were mostly down for counties across other parts of the north-central mountains, with Eagle, Garfield and Pitkin counties seeing fewer new listings for single-family homes. All except Pitkin County saw a rise in inventory compared to last May, accompanied by a lengthening of days on market to over 100 days. Pitkin County properties spent the longest on the market before selling, rising 10% to 228 days, according to data from the Colorado Association of Realtors.

Interest is high, but what about pricing?

A single-family home is built on Boulder Ridge Road in Steamboat Springs in 2017.
Matt Stensland/Steamboat Pilot

Whether Western Slope counties saw housing prices rise or drop varied significantly from town to town. However, more expensive price tags don’t seem to be slowing buyers down heading into the summer selling season — for now.

The median price for single-family homes dropped to $965,000 in Grand County from $990,000, while the median list price in Winter Park hit $1.2 million.

“Well-priced properties moved, while homes that missed the mark on pricing tended to sit longer,” Graves said. Homes in Winter Park averaged around 51 days on market in May — lower than the statewide average — while those in Granby averaged 78 days despite significantly lower pricing. Graves added that, in places like Granby, homes offering updated finishes, views or short-term rental potential generated the strongest interest.

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Prices across Summit County went up compared to last spring. The average price for single-family homes rose 6% to $2.68 million in May 2026, while multi-family home prices saw a larger 19% jump, hitting $1.07 million.

The most expensive home sold in the county was a $13 million home in Breckenridge. This continued strength in pricing demonstrates that demand for mountain living remains firmly intact, with many buyers still moving forward despite economic uncertainty, Cottrell said.

In Steamboat Springs, multi-family homes — which matched last year’s May closings at 26 — saw median and average sales prices increase to $1.96 million and $2.24 million, respectively. Across Routt County, median sales prices jumped 62% for single-family homes and 156% for townhomes and condos, more than doubling from their May 2025 median price of $640,000 to hit $1.64 million.

Across Eagle, Garfield and Pitkin counties, changes in pricing differed by property type. All three counties recorded a drop in the median sales price for single-family homes, with the greatest drop coming from Pitkin County: 58.5% for a median price of $5.5 million in May 2026. The average sales price also dropped from $12.9 to $12.6 million, while townhomes and condos saw a 50% increase in average sales price, bumping up the cost from $2.99 million to $4.5 million.

Could rising mortgage rates scare away potential buyers?

A major market element that could influence buyer activity heading deeper into the summer season is rising mortgage rates.

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In February, Western Slope housing markets were reporting an uptick in buyer inquiries due to sinking mortgage rates. Rates had trended downward throughout the first few months of 2026, after home loan rates hit their lowest point in three years in early January.

As of July 2, 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to 6.51%, reversing what had once improved the sentiments of buyers who had been sidelined by affordability concerns. 

Rates began increasing following the start of the war in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising inflation has only further elevated mortgage rates, though they’ve managed to remain below the 7% reached in early 2025, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

With recent rate fluctuations, it remains to be seen whether rates will dampen buyer enthusiasm during Colorado’s peak season for buyers.





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New Colorado wildfire sparks evacuations south of Steamboat Springs

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New Colorado wildfire sparks evacuations south of Steamboat Springs


A new wildfire sparked Sunday in northern Colorado’s mountains, forcing evacuations near Stagecoach State Park in Routt County, according to county officials.

The Green Ridge fire was discovered Sunday near the Stagecoach Reservoir, according to Routt County officials. That’s roughly 17 miles south of Steamboat Springs.



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