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Colorado’s workforce has been shrinking since September — and that could spell trouble

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Colorado’s workforce has been shrinking since September — and that could spell trouble


Buried deep within an otherwise routine state employment report for December is a troubling mystery. Colorado is starting to see an alarmingly large number of workers go missing.

Colorado’s labor force shrank 0.6% year-over-year last month, a monthly decline matching the pace seen during the Great Recession. After flatlining in August, the labor force, those working or looking for work, has been retreating since September. For the year, 20,280 people vanished from its ranks, mostly in the fourth quarter.

That has never happened outside a severe recession or economic shock like the COVID-19 pandemic.

From April 2020 to March 2021, workers removed themselves from the labor force in record numbers. Giving up a paycheck to avoid landing on a respirator seemed like a fair trade-off to many older workers during the pandemic. The defections were unprecedented, triggering a 3.4% drop in the labor force in July 2020. But they were short-lived. People returned once restrictions eased and vaccines became available.

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Another 12-month stretch of a draining labor pool occurred from September 2009 to August 2010 during the housing crash and Great Recession. People couldn’t easily replace the jobs they lost. Many gave up trying. That contributed to annual declines of 0.7% and 0.6% during the worst months.

The mother of all Colorado labor force deflations happened from July 1985 to June 1989. It started during a severe oil and gas downturn, which was followed by a lending crisis, which was followed by a collapse in commercial real estate and home values. It was such an ugly period economically that companies and people packed their bags and left the state in droves.

The year-over-year drops reached a high of 0.9% and 0.8% in 1989, but most months ran lower, with some positive months mixed in. But all those Colorado natives kept graduating from high school and college. The unemployment rose to as high as 8.4% in December 1985 and January 1986. The workers who stayed gutted it out. Better times returned in the 1990s.

There is no health crisis keeping people home, no recession triggering major layoffs and no collapse in a pillar of the state economy. So what might be driving the decline in the number of workers?

The easy out is to blame statistical noise. The household survey — used to determine the size of the labor force and the unemployment rate — is subject to revisions. The federal government shutdown in October might have mucked things up. Below-average snowfalls might have reduced demand for resort workers. The list goes on.

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But the decline is large and accelerating, and it started before the shutdown. It likely reflects a real shift, said Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the Business Research Division at the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder.

“I think the current softening could be a mixture of both the market (demographics) and policy,” he said.

One demographic piece involves more workers retiring. The mirror doesn’t lie. Colorado’s population is getting older. The long-predicted silver tsunami may finally be sucking workers out of the labor pool. But aging is a slow-moving trend, not akin to an earthquake.

Migration is a more plausible force behind what is happening. Colorado lost 12,100 more people than it gained from other states in the year through June 30, according to a population update Tuesday from the U.S. Census Bureau.

That trend may have accelerated in the second half of the year based on what is happening to the labor force. Colorado’s net domestic migration is down sharply since the pandemic. Blame higher housing costs and fewer job opportunities. More longtime residents appear to be picking up and moving out. Last year, Colorado became one of five states with significantly more outbound than inbound moves, according to a survey by United Van Lines.

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From the reopening of the economy following the pandemic through 2024, Colorado saw big increases in the number of people arriving from other countries. Migration to Colorado historically has been 80% domestic and 20% international. That ratio flipped this decade, according to the State Demography Office.

In the 12 months through June 30, the state’s net international migration of 15,356 was enough to offset the loss of 12,100 domestically last year. The combined number was weak, but it wasn’t negative. For the last several years, it appears international migration helped mask the weakness the state was facing on the domestic side.

And the mask has been removed. This is where policy shock comes into play.

Voters, upset with the immigration surge and inflation, elected Donald Trump to office. His administration has moved quickly to shut down flows across the border and remove illegal immigrants. The administration has also tightened down on legal channels of immigration, requiring more vetting and in-person interviews, delaying application processing and even reversing earlier green card approvals.

“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau, in a news release Tuesday. “With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today.”

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Lewandowski notes that the labor force shrank in a dozen states in December, and 19 states had growth rates below 1%. Wyoming led the country on the downside with a 2.5% decline. Vermont and Wisconsin also dropped more than 2%. Illinois, Virginia and Connecticut had declines above 1%.

“I certainly think the lack of international migration has to be playing a role as we don’t have replacements,” said Richard Wobbekind, a senior economist with the Business Research Division, of the shrinking labor force.

More older workers are retiring each year. Years of a subdued birth rate mean fewer young adults are entering the workforce. Colorado has become less attractive to young adults living in other states, and with each passing year, there are fewer of them to recruit. Now immigration has been throttled.

That may explain why the state’s unemployment rate has managed to drop significantly despite fairly weak job growth. It fell from 4.6% a year ago to 3.8%. Normally, a falling unemployment rate is associated with a strong job market. But job gains are a little over a third of their historical pace since 1990. The last two years have been the weakest outside of a recession.

Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls increased by 23,000, with 18,900 of those jobs coming in the private sector and governments adding 4,100 jobs, according to the December employment report from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

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Colorado man sentenced to over 40 years in prison for murder of ex-girlfriend

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Colorado man sentenced to over 40 years in prison for murder of ex-girlfriend


A Boulder County man was sentenced to 48 years in prison for murdering his ex-girlfriend and dumping her body in 2024.

The Boulder County Sheriff’s Office said Christine Barron Olivas’s body was discovered in a remote area of unincorporated Boulder County on Sept. 14, 2024. She was last seen leaving the neighborhood with her boyfriend, Carlos Dosal, the week prior.

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Boulder County Sheriff’s Office


The coroner’s office determined the cause of her death was strangulation.

In Feb. 2026, Dosal pleaded guilty to second-degree murder as a crime of domestic violence in her death. On Saturday, the judge sentenced him to 48 years in the Colorado Department of Corrections.

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Saturday Night Showdown | Colorado Avalanche

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Saturday Night Showdown | Colorado Avalanche


Leading the Way

Nate the Great

MacKinnon is tied for fifth in the NHL in points (10), while ranking tied for seventh in goals (4) and tied for ninth in assists (6). 

All Hail Cale

Cale Makar is tied for first in goals (4) among NHL defensemen,

Toewser Laser

Among NHL blueliners, Devon Toews is tied for third in points (7) while ranking tied for fifth in assists (5) and tied for sixth in goals (2). 

Series History

The Avalanche and Wild have met in the playoffs on three previous occasions, all in the Round One, with Minnesota winning in 2003 and 2014 in seven games while Colorado was victorious in six contests in 2008. 

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Making Plays Against Minnesota

MacKinnon has posted 16 points (4g/12a) in nine playoff games against the Wild, in addition to 70 points (27g/43a) in 55 regular-season contests. 

Makar has registered three points (2g/1a) in two playoff contests against Minnesota, along with 26 points (6g/20a) in 29 regular-season games. 

Necas has recorded five points (1g/4a) in two playoff games against the Wild, in addition to nine points (5g/4a) in 15 regular-season games. 

Scoring in the Twin Cities

Quinn Hughes is tied for the Wild lead in points (11) and assists (8) while ranking tied for second in goals (3). 

Kaprizov is tied for first on the Wild in assists (8) and points (11) while ranking tied for second in goals (3). 

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Matt Boldy leads the Wild in goals (6) while ranking third in points (10) and tied for fourth in assists (4). 

A Numbers Game

4.50

Colorado’s 4.50 goals per game on the road in the playoffs are tied for the most in the NHL.

39

MacKinnon’s 39 playoff goals since 2020-21 are the second most in the NHL. 

2.17

The Avalanche’s 2.17 goals against per game in the playoffs are the second fewest in the NHL. 

Quote That Left a Mark

“It should definitely get you up and excited. It’s gonna be a good test. [It’s a] great building and [it’s] against a desperate team. It’s gonna be great.” 

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— Gabriel Landeskog on playing in Minnesota



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Colorado Gov. Jared Polis signs state budget, with Medicaid taking brunt of cuts to close $1.5 billion gap

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Colorado Gov. Jared Polis signs state budget, with Medicaid taking brunt of cuts to close .5 billion gap


Colorado Gov. Jared Polis on Friday, May 8, signed into law a $46.8 billion state budget that cuts healthcare spending but preserves funding for K-12 education. 

The budget applies to the 2026-27 fiscal year, which begins on July 1, and caps months of work by lawmakers, who wrestled with how to close a roughly $1.5 billion gap that ultimately forced reductions to Medicaid funding and other programs. 

“This year was incredibly difficult and challenged each of us in a myriad of ways that put our values to the test,” said Rep. Emily Sirtota, a Denver Democrat and chair of the bipartisan Joint Budget Committee, which crafts the state’s spending plan before it is voted on by the full legislature. “It’s a zero-sum game. A dollar here means a dollar less over here.” 



The state’s spending gap was the result of several factors. 

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The legislature is limited in how it can spend under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, or TABOR, an amendment to the state constitution approved by voters in 1992 that limits government revenue growth to the rate of population growth plus inflation. 



Lawmakers are also dealing with the consequences of increased spending on programs they created or expanded in recent years, some of which have seen their costs balloon beyond their original estimates. Costs for Medicaid services, in particular, have surged, driven by inflation, expanded benefits and greater demand for expensive, long-term care services due to Colorado’s aging population. 

Medicaid cuts 

Medicaid recently eclipsed K-12 education as the single-largest chunk of the state’s general fund and now accounts for roughly one-third of all spending from that fund. 

Lawmakers, who are required by the state constitution to pass a deficit-free budget, said they had no choice but to cut Medicaid funding as a result. 

That includes a 2% reduction to the state’s reimbursement rate for most Medicaid providers. The budget also institutes a $3,000 cap on adult dental benefits, limits billable hours for at-home caregivers of family members with severe disabilities to 56 hours per week and phases out, by Jan. 1, automatic enrollment for children with disabilities to receive 24/7 care as adults.

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The budget also cuts benefits and places new limits on Cover All Coloradans, a program created by the legislature in 2022 that provides identical coverage as Medicaid to low-income immigrant children and pregnant women, regardless of their immigration status. 

That includes an end to long-term care services for new enrollees, a $1,100 limit on dental benefits, and an annual enrollment cap of 25,000 for children 18 or younger. The cuts come as spending on the program has grown more than 600% beyond its original estimate, going from roughly $14.7 million to an estimated $104.5 million for the 2025-26 fiscal year. 

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis signs the state’s 2026-27 fiscal year budget at his Capitol office on May 8, 2026. He is flanked, from left, by Lt. Lt. Gov. Dianne Primavera, Rep. Emily Sirota, D-Denver, Sen. Jeff Bridges, D-Greenwood Village, and Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, R-Brighton.
Robert Tann/Summit Daily News

While the budget still represents an overall increase in Medicaid spending compared to this year, funding is roughly half of what it would have been had lawmakers not made any changes to benefits and provider rates, which total about $270 million in savings for the state. 

Healthcare leaders say the cuts will exacerbate an already challenging environment for providers, who are bracing for less federal support after Congress last year passed sweeping Medicaid cuts and declined to renew enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. 

For rural hospitals in particular, Medicaid is one of their key funding drivers. 

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“While a 2% (Medicaid reimbursement rate cut) doesn’t sound like a whole lot, when we already have close to 50% of our rural hospitals statewide operating in the red and 70% with unsustainable margins, facing another 2% (cut) on top of that is just devastating,” said Michelle Mills, CEO for the Colorado Rural Health Center, which represents rural hospitals on the Western Slope and Eastern Plains. 

If the state provides less reimbursement for Medicaid services, Mills said it will lead to fewer providers accepting Medicaid plans. That in turn will mean fewer care options for people, particularly in Colorado’s rural counties, where healthcare services are already more limited. 

“I feel like all of the decisions and cuts that they’re making are hitting everyone,” she said. 

Rep. Rick Taggart, a Grand Junction Republican and budget committee member, said cuts to healthcare led to “a lot of tears.” 

State Rep. Rick Taggart, R-Grand Junction, talks about the tough decisions he and other members of the legislature’s Joint Budget Committee made to balance the state budget on May 8, 2026.
Robert Tann/Summit Daily News

“This was a tough budget, and nobody won in this budget, but we did what we had to do by way of the (state) constitution,” he said. 

While Medicaid saw some of the biggest cuts, lawmakers also trimmed spending from a suite of other programs, including financial aid for adoptive parents and grants providing mental health support for law enforcement. 

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Preserving K-12 education 

One of the brighter spots for Polis and lawmakers in the budget is K-12 education. 

After years of chronically underfunding the state’s schools, lawmakers in 2024 rolled out a revamped funding formula and abolished what was known as the budget stabilization factor, a Great Recession-era mechanism that had allowed the state to skirt its constitutional funding obligation to schools for more than a decade.

The new funding formula went into effect this school year, and the state is set to continue delivering higher levels of K-12 funding in the 2026-27 fiscal year budget. The budget allocates roughly $10.19 billion in K-12 funding, an increase of roughly $194.8 million, though the specifics of that spending are still being worked out in a separate bill, the 2026 School Finance Act, which has yet to pass the legislature. 

The finance act guides how state and local funds are allocated to Colorado’s 178 school districts on a per-pupil basis. As it stands now, the bill is on track to increase per-pupil funding by $440 per student for the 2026-27 fiscal year, for a total of $12,314 per student.

“We are not returning to the days of underfunding our schools and a budget stabilization factor,” Polis said.

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Colorado Gov. Jared Polis highlights efforts to shield K-12 education funding from cuts in the state’s 2026-27 fiscal year budget on May 8, 2026.
Robert Tann/Summit Daily News

Still, there are challenges on the horizon for some districts. 

Combined with a proposed three-year averaging model for student counts instead of the current four-year averaging, recent dips in student enrollment across the state will weigh more heavily on how much funding is allocated to each district. The shift to three-year averaging advances the state’s plan to gradually phase in the new school finance formula by 2030-31.

With several districts seeing decreased year-over-year enrollment and rising operational expenses like healthcare, some Western Slope school districts are poised to see less funding compared to this year, while others are seeing their increases eaten up by inflation.

A note on wolves 

The topic of Colorado’s spending on gray wolf reintroduction hasn’t gone away, and while Medicaid headlined much of the budget discussions, lawmakers also used the spending plan to send a message on the future of the wolf program. 

While the budget allocates $2.1 from the general fund to Colorado Parks and Wildlife to spend on wolf reintroduction, it also contains a footnote from lawmakers asking the agency not to use the money to acquire new wolves. 

Footnotes are not legally binding, but rather serve as a direction or guidance from lawmakers to agencies on how they want certain funds spent. 

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Under the footnote, the wildlife agency could still use gifts, grants, donations and non-license revenue from its wildlife cash fund to bring additional wolves to Colorado. Most of the agency’s wolf funding goes toward personnel, followed by operating costs, compensation for ranchers and conflict minimization programs and tools.

Education reporter Andrea Teres-Martinez and wildlife and environmental reporter Ali Longwell contributed to this story





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