Let’s be honest, if this was an independence era bowl game, BYU fans would be throwing a parade down Center Street. A standalone Saturday night game on ABC against a ranked Colorado team and Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter might be a top five BYU bowl game. Of course everyone wanted to face Colorado in a Big 12 title game, but I guess fans will have to settle for this. Bummer (heavy sarcasm).

A BYU win over Colorado would go a long way to take the sting off a disappointing end to an otherwise magical season. A win tonight secures an 11-win season, a top-15 ranking, and enough offseason momentum to likely earn BYU a preseason ranking that unfortunately matters a lot more than you think. Here are four reasons I think BYU gets that done.

Advanced analytics think this is a good matchup for BYU. BYU’s offense is 22nd and expected points added (EPA) per rush compared to 43rd for Colorado’s defense against the run. Meanwhile, BYU’s defense ranks 27th in EPA per rush and 12th in EPA per drop back compared to 73rd and 25th respectively for Colorado’s offense. The only EPA edge Colorado holds is their 24th national ranking in defensive EPA per drop back compared to 36th for BYU’s offense. BYU is also 14th nationally in net yards per play compared to 27th. In less data nerd speak, BYU generates bigger plays than Colorado on average on a per-play basis. The task then becomes whether Jake Retzlaff can continue to generate the big plays without the costly mistakes that plagued BYU in the month of November.

You would be hard pressed to find a quarterback who has been under more pressure this season than Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Colorado ranks 124th nationally in sacks allowed (3.5 per game) while allowing QB hurries on over a third of Sanders’ drop backs. When pressured, Sanders’ completion percentage drops from 80% to 54% while his turnover play rate nearly doubles. Most alarmingly for Colorado, over 20% of pressures allowed turn into sacks. That is welcome news for a BYU defense that has been able to put pressure on quarterbacks all season, but has struggled to get home on opposing quarterbacks. If BYU can get Colorado off schedule with QB pressure on early downs, Colorado’s 39% 3rd/4th down conversion rate won’t be enough to keep Colorado’s high-flying offense on the field.

You may not like it, but sometimes the easiest way to play defense is to never let an opposing offense get on the field. If any team is good at that, it’s BYU. BYU is the 3rd best offense in the country at generating drives that reach scoring position and 23rd in available yards gained per drive. Translation: BYU moves the ball as well as anyone in the country. The struggles have come with red zone execution over the last month with boneheaded mistakes and turnovers. BYU will be able to keep Colorado’s offense off the field for long stretches with a consistent run game. Whether they win or not will come down to whether they can capitalize with touchdowns on those long drives like they did early in the season.

Colorado ranks dead last nationally in rush yards per game (71) and third to last in yards per rush (2.6). I don’t think that gets any better against a BYU defense that ranks top 50 in both. Instead of the run game, Colorado has relied on the quick passing game to fill the void left by an ineffective run game. Over 60% of Sanders’ passes travel 10 yards or less with a nearly 20% screen rate. These throws are incredibly efficient for Colorado, as nearly 90% of these throws are completed to a plethora of elusive wide receivers led by Heisman trophy winner Travis Hunter with space to work.

BYU’s ability to tackle in space on the edges will be vital. BYU is stronger in this regard than you think. BYU’s linebacking trio of Jack Kelly, Isaiah Glasker, and Harrison Taggart all have exceptional speed while 3 of BYU’s top 4 cornerbacks all have tackling grades above 70 on PFF. If BYU can limit the screen game and force Colorado into higher risk throws down field, there will be more opportunities for an elite BYU secondary to make the game changing plays they have made all season long.

If BYU’s pass rush can’t get to Shedeur Sanders and BYU turns the ball over multiple times, this game could snowball in the wrong direction. On the flip side, if BYU plays successful and clean run-centric football, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders won’t be on the field enough to do any real damage.

Teams that beat Colorado are teams that run the football. Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State combined to run for 665 yards and were +40 in combined time of possession. That is BYU’s path to victory. BYU won’t run for 330 yards like Kansas did, but they can match the 150-mark put up by Nebraska. BYU has averaged 172.5 yards rushing per game over their last 8 games and with at least 2 9+ play drives in every game over that span. Don’t overcomplicate it. Run the [redacted] ball and let Jay Hill and LJ Martin take BYU to their second 11-win season in the last 15 years.

BYU 27 – Colorado 24

SILVERTHORNE, Colo. — Multiple rounds of mountain snow mean it will likely be a crowded holiday weekend for skiers and boarders on the slopes, and for those driving up into the high country.

By Monday, a foot of snow is possible along the Interstate 70 drive. The area around Steamboat Springs and Rabbit Ears Pass is under a Winter Storm Warning and could see even more.

DENVER WEATHER LINKS: Hourly forecast | Radars | Traffic | Weather Page | 24/7 Weather Stream

Denver7 Weather

Shops like Blue Valley Ski and Board Rentals in Silverthorne were packed on Friday.

“Today, we sent out our biggest day of the season so far,” said owner Mo Esch. “We were sold out for a while [today].”

Esch said that only happens a couple of times a season.

This holiday weekend between Christmas and New Year’s has led people to his business from as far as the Southern U.S., and even the Southern Hemisphere.

“Lot of Alabama, a lot of Louisiana,” Esch said of Friday’s customers. “Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Jersey, New York, Argentina, Mexico, lots of places.”

Still, there are many more who will be making the drive up this weekend. The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) is warning them to plan ahead.

“What we are hearing is that there are going to be waves of snow this weekend, fairly moderate snow that we’re expecting,” said Lisa Schwantes, regional communications manager for CDOT.

“Travel during the daylight hours, if you can, because the cold temperatures will definitely impact and affect the roadway. So it could freeze up, get slick out there,” she advised. “So if you can avoid travel at night, I would do that.”

CDOT advises everyone to take extra time and extra emergency items with them, like food, water, a blanket, a snow shovel and a flashlight.

The department also urges everyone, especially commercial drivers, to obey chain laws. Drivers who do not are often involved in slide-offs and pile-ups that can snarl traffic and prevent plows from getting through, according to Schwantes.

The extra precautions are worth it to safely enjoy spending the holidays in the Colorado mountains.

“I hardly remember any of the Christmas presents I got, but I remember every single ski vacation my family ever took,” Esch recalled. “It was really just something I hold near and dear to my heart. So that’s one of the reasons why I just, I like to share that with other people.”

The Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) is warning backcountry travelers to be careful, as this weekend’s heavy snow and high winds will bring high avalanche danger.

The countdown to an unforgettable New Years Eve experience has officially begun! Decadence Colorado is back and bigger than ever, promising to be the highlight of your holiday festivities. On December 30th and 31st, the Colorado Convention Center will transform into a vibrant celebration of music, art, and community, as Global Dance and AEG Presents: Rocky Mountains bring you the largest indoor NYE dance music festival in the United States.
Get your Decadence tickets HERE before they sell out!

This years event features an incredible lineup of performers set to take the stage across two massive platforms, ensuring that your ears will be treated to the best sounds in the industry as we bid farewell to the year. But that’s not all – Decadence is known for it’s immersive experiences, and this years Digital City theme will elevate your senses to new heights. Picture a high-tech metropolis adorned with stunning lights, lasers, and interactive art installations that invite you to explore and engage in a world of creativity.

As Ha Hau, the visionary founder of Decadence and Global Dance, shares, The theme behind Decadence is a digital city, a city of indulgence. This sentiment perfectly encapsulates the event spirit, inviting attendees to immerse themselves in a unique blend of art, music, and community.

Since its debut, Decadence has transformed into a dazzling spectacle, claiming its title as the largest indoor New Years Eve dance event in North America! What began as a cozy gathering in a few halls of the Colorado Convention Center has exploded into a massive celebration that stretches across a venue the size of six football fields.

Every year, Decadence attracts thousands of passionate fans from all corners of the country, creating a vibrant tapestry of energy and excitement that’s hard to match. Picture yourself dancing the night away to the thumping beats of the biggest names in electronic dance music, while also discovering fresh talent that’s making waves in the scene. This event is more than just a celebration, its a cultural phenomenon that has become a staple in Denver’s nightlife and a rite of passage for young adults eager to ring in the New Year with friends and unforgettable memories.

This year’s all-star lineup includes (in alphabetical order):
Apashe, Black Tiger Sex Machine, Chris Lake, Elderbrook (DJ Set), Excision, Ganja White Night, ILLENIUM b2b Slander, ISOxo, Liquid Stranger, Meduza b2b James Hype, Morten, REZZ, Seven Lions, Skepsis, Subtronics, Tchami x Malaa (No Redemption), The Glitch
Mob, Tiësto, Wax Motif, William Black, Wreckno, and Zeds Dead.
Iconic DJ/producer duo Zeds Dead return as fan favorites, having just celebrated their 10th anniversary of selling out Red Rocks for their annual July 4th event. ILLENIUM, who will perform a special back-to-back set with Slander, is another local hero. From humble beginnings playing DJ battles at The Black Box, ILLENIUM has risen to headline Denver’s biggest stages, including three-night runs at Red Rocks and Empower Field at Mile High, home of the NFL’s Denver Broncos. Get your Decadence tickets HERE