San Francisco and Bakersfield are 251 miles aside as a condor would fly however culturally and politically, they may as properly be on completely different planets — and that additionally applies to their congressional representatives.

Uber-progressive San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi is the long-serving Democratic chief — and present speaker — of the Home whereas very conservative Bakersfield’s Kevin McCarthy leads the Republican minority and would displace Pelosi if the GOP recaptures management of Congress this 12 months.

Republicans want to realize simply 5 seats in November to take over and uniformly, polling and different checks of political sentiment point out that with President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, pushed by excessive inflation and different points, the GOP is properly positioned to win management.

Democrats hope they’ll stave off defeat by tying former President Donald Trump to the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by his supporters and motivating their voters to oppose a pending Supreme Court docket choice eroding abortion rights.

It’s attainable, though unlikely, that whether or not Pelosi retains the speakership or cedes it to McCarthy will finally hinge on a number of California duels, arrange by modifications in congressional district boundaries and outcomes of final week’s major election.

On paper, as many as six and even seven California congressional seats may change partisan palms in November, however 4 — two now held by Democrats and two by Republicans — loom massive on the political radar.

—Republican Mike Garcia, a former fighter pilot, defeated Christy Smith, a Democratic assemblywoman, in a particular election for a congressional seat in Los Angeles’ northern suburbs in 2020. He then eked out a 333-vote win over Smith for a full time period later that 12 months, regardless of a 7.5% Democratic voter registration edge. Garcia hopes his third matchup with Smith this 12 months can even be a attraction, however the brand new 27^th Congressional District has a 12%-plus Democratic voter margin, making him decidedly extra weak.

—Katie Porter, a Democratic congresswoman from Orange County who has acquired a excessive nationwide political profile, gained her Irvine-centered district regardless of its slight Republican voter registration margin and her new district (CD 47) now has a slight Democratic edge, which ought to make re-election simpler. Nonetheless, Republican challenger Scott Baugh, a former assemblyman and present Orange County GOP chairman, is a formidable fundraiser whose hopes experience on Biden’s unpopularity.

—Hanford Republican David Valadao has been elected and re-elected by San Joaquin Valley voters regardless of a lopsided Democratic voter registration benefit. His newly redrawn, three-county district (CD 22) favors Democrats by greater than 17 share factors however Valadao hopes that his impartial picture — he was certainly one of 10 Republican Home members who voted to question Trump — will save him once more. Having overcome stiff major challenges from two different GOP candidates, Valadao now faces Rudy Salas, a Democratic assemblyman from Kern County who counts on a excessive turnout of Latino voters to flip the seat.

—Democrat Mike Levin has gained two phrases in Congress from a coastal area — northern San Diego County and southern Orange County — that was lengthy a Republican stronghold, however the very slight Democratic voter registration fringe of his redrawn district (CD 49) fuels Republican hopes of a win if nationwide developments invade the turf. Former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott beat 4 different Republican hopefuls for the precise to tackle Levin.

General, it seems that Democrats have a greater probability of unseating Garcia and/or Valadao than Republicans have of ousting Porter and Levin. Might a two-seat Democratic achieve in California stave off a GOP takeover of the Home? Unlikely, however actually within the realm of chance.