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What NOAA’s new snow maps say about California’s upcoming winter

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What NOAA’s new snow maps say about California’s upcoming winter


“Snowfall during all El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). Blue colors show more snow than average; brown shows less snow than average,” a description of the map reads from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. NOAA’s Climate.gov map is based on ERA5 data from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

New maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that a large part of California’s Sierra Nevada has, on average, seen above-normal snowfall during El Niño events. With a strong El Niño pattern predicted to occur this winter, you may jump to the conclusion that the Golden State could see a massive snow pile-up this year.

But Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, cautions against viewing the maps as a forecast for what is likely to happen this winter. Rather, they are historical data that show how snowfall deviated from the average in winters marked by El Niño weather patterns. On the map, which uses data from 1959 to 2023, brown depicts less-than-normal snowfall and blue is above normal.

The key is to recognize that within the average, the Sierra has seen wild swings in snowfall, with some years recording above-normal snowfall and others below-normal. In fact, L’Heureux and her team found that in the Sierra, depending on the region of the mountain range, there were six to eight El Niño years with above-average snowfall and five to seven with below-average.

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In those above-average years, the deviation was greater than in the below-average ones. Because of this, the big snow years dominate the map, giving the impression above-average snowfall is likely in an El Niño year. In reality, what happens in the Sierra is “more of a coin flip,” L’Heureux wrote in an email. 

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"Snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). Blue colors show more snow than average; brown shows less snow than average,"  a description of the map reads from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. NOAA's Climate.gov map is based on ERA5 data from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L'Heureux.

“Snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). Blue colors show more snow than average; brown shows less snow than average,”  a description of the map reads from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. NOAA’s Climate.gov map is based on ERA5 data from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

El Niño develops in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean when the trade winds ease and warm ocean water collects at the equator in the central and eastern Pacific. The warmer sea surface temperature in an El Niño year can shift the jet stream, high-altitude winds that generally move west to east over the continents. Movement in the jet stream can impact weather across the globe, especially in winter months, leading some areas to be drier and some areas to be wetter than is normal. 

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“The jet stream tends to extend eastward and shift southward during El Niño winters,” L’Heureux and her team wrote in a blog post featuring the maps. “You can think of the jet stream as a river of air, which carries more moisture and precipitation along the southern tier of the United States during El Niño. As a result, it is not surprising to see a stripe of increased snowfall (blue shading) over the southern half of the country.”

Sometimes in an El Niño year, the jet stream sets up in a way that brings increased snow to California, but that’s not always the case. El Niño conditions developed over summer and are expected to persist into the spring, according to the most recent forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. There’s a 75-85% chance a strong El Niño will occur November through January. 

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"Number of years with below-average snowfall during the 13 moderate-to-strong El Niño winters (January-March average) since 1959. Red shows locations where more than half the years had below-average snowfall; gray areas below-average snowfall less than half the time," a description of the map reads from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. NOAA's Climate.gov map is based on ERA5 data from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L'Heureux.

“Number of years with below-average snowfall during the 13 moderate-to-strong El Niño winters (January-March average) since 1959. Red shows locations where more than half the years had below-average snowfall; gray areas below-average snowfall less than half the time,” a description of the map reads from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. NOAA’s Climate.gov map is based on ERA5 data from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux.

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NOAA Climate Prediction Center

California state climatologist Michael Anderson called the new maps “a great data product for climate analyses,” but he said it’s important to understand the caveats.     

“A key caveat is that the maps depict average conditions and each storm event, and each winter is likely to be different than the average,” Anderson wrote in an email. “This is particularly true for California as we are seeing more extremes on both ends of the wet/dry spectrum.  In 2015 (a weak El Niño year), California had its lowest snowpack on record, while in 2019 (a weak to moderate El Niño year), California experienced one of the 5 largest snowpacks on record. The super El Niño of 2016 produced the only near-average snowpack in the past decade. This variability can’t be ignored in California. 

“Bottom line, the new data set is a great way to map snowfall across North America and evaluate changes as the world warms, but averages associated with El Nino and Southern Oscillation phases are not always good predictors for seasonal outcomes for California.”

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Anderson said the Department of Water Resources is working with a team of researchers to explore how to produce “more skillful” long-range season outlooks for the state that incorporate other climate influences, including weather patterns beyond El Niño and the inverse La Niña. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, marked by thunderstorms that circle the equator and help foster storms, may have helped drive the historically wet 2022-23 winter.

Until more accurate outlooks are available for California, it’s good to be prepared for any of one three scenarios in the Sierra: above-normal, below normal or even ordinary, normal snowfall. 



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Caitlyn Jenner says she'd 'destroy' Kamala Harris in hypothetical race to be CA gov

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Caitlyn Jenner says she'd 'destroy' Kamala Harris in hypothetical race to be CA gov


Caitlyn Jenner, the gold-medal Olympian-turned reality TV personality, is considering another run for Governor of California. This time, she says, if she were to go up against Vice President Kamala Harris, she would “destroy her.” 

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Jenner, who publicly came out as transgender nearly 10 years ago, made a foray into politics when she ran as a Republican during the recall election that attempted to unseat Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021. Jenner only received one percent of the vote and was not considered a serious candidate. 

Jenner posted this week on social media that she’s having conversations with “many people” and hopes to have an announcement soon about whether she will run. 

Caitlyn Jenner speaks at the 4th annual Womens March LA: Women Rising at Pershing Square on January 18, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Chelsea Guglielmino/Getty Images)

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She has also posted in Trumpian-style all caps: “MAKE CA GREAT AGAIN!”

As for VP Harris, she has not indicated any future plans for when she leaves office. However, a recent poll suggests Harris would have a sizable advantage should she decide to run in 2026. At that point, Newsom cannot run again because of term limits. 

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If Jenner decides to run and wins, it would mark the nation and state’s first transgender governor.  



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Northern California 6-year-old, parents hailed as heroes for saving woman who crashed into canal

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Northern California 6-year-old, parents hailed as heroes for saving woman who crashed into canal


LIVE OAK — A six-year-old and her parents are being called heroes by a Northern California community for jumping into a canal to save a 75-year-old woman who drove off the road. 

It happened on Larkin Road near Paseo Avenue in the Sutter County community of Live Oak on Monday. 

“I just about lost her, but I didn’t,” said Terry Carpenter, husband of the woman who was rescued. “We got more chances.” 

Terry said his wife of 33 years, Robin Carpenter, is the love of his life and soulmate. He is grateful he has been granted more time to spend with her after she survived her car crashing off a two-lane road and overturning into a canal. 

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“She’s doing really well,” Terry said. “No broken bones, praise the Lord.” 

It is what some call a miracle that could have had a much different outcome without a family of good Samaritans. 

“Her lips were purple,” said Ashley Martin, who helped rescue the woman. “There wasn’t a breath at all. I was scared.” 

Martin and her husband, Cyle Johnson, are being hailed heroes by the Live Oak community for jumping into the canal, cutting Robin out of her seat belt and pulling her head above water until first responders arrived. 

“She was literally submerged underwater,” Martin said. “She had a back brace on. Apparently, she just had back surgery. So, I grabbed her brace from down below and I flipped her upward just in a quick motion to get her out of that water.” 

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The couple said the real hero was their six-year-old daughter, Cayleigh Johnson. 

“It was scary,” Cayleigh said. “So the car was going like this, and it just went boom, right into the ditch.” 

Cayleigh was playing outside and screamed for her parents who were inside the house near the canal.

I spoke with Robin from her hospital bed over the phone who told us she is in a lot of pain but grateful.

“The thing I can remember is I started falling asleep and then I was going over the bump and I went into the ditch and that’s all I remember,” Robin said. 

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It was a split-second decision for a family who firefighters said helped save a stranger’s life. 

“It’s pretty unique that someone would jump in and help somebody that they don’t even know,” said Battalion Chief for Sutter County Fire Richard Epperson. 

Robin is hopeful that she will be released from the hospital on Wednesday in time to be home for Thanksgiving. 

“She gets Thanksgiving and Christmas now with her family and grandkids,” Martin said. 

Terry and Robin are looking forward to eventually meeting the family who helped save Robin’s life. The family expressed the same feelings about meeting the woman they helped when she is out of the hospital. 

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“I can’t wait for my baby to get home,” Terry said. 



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California may exclude Tesla from EV rebate program

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California may exclude Tesla from EV rebate program


California Gov. Gavin Newsom may exclude Tesla and other automakers from an electric vehicle (EV) rebate program if the incoming Trump administration scraps a federal tax credit for electric car purchases.

Newsom proposed creating a new version of the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, which was phased out in 2023 after funding more than 594,000 vehicles and saving more than 456 million gallons of fuel, the governor’s office said in a news release on Monday.

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“Consumers continue to prove the skeptics wrong – zero-emission vehicles are here to stay,” Newsom said in a statement. “We’re not turning back on a clean transportation future – we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute.”

The proposed rebates would be funded with money from the state’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which is funded by polluters under the state’s cap-and-trade program, the governor’s office said. Officials did not say how much the program would cost or save consumers.

NEBRASKA AG LAUNCHES ASSAULT AGAINST CALIFORNIA’S ELECTRIC VEHICLE PUSH

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday proposed creating a new version of the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program if the incoming Trump administration scraps a federal tax credit for electric car purchases. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images, File / Getty Images)

They would also include changes to promote innovation and competition in the zero-emission vehicles market – changes that could prevent automakers like Tesla from qualifying for the rebates.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who relocated Tesla’s corporate headquarters from California to Texas in 2021, responded to the possibility of having Tesla EVs left out of the program.

Tesla automobile plugged in and charging a Supercharger rapid battery charging station for the electric vehicle company Tesla Motors, in the Silicon Valley town of Mountain View, California, August 24, 2016.

Tesla and other automakers may not qualify for the proposed tax credits, according to the governor’s office. (Getty Images, File / Getty Images)

“Even though Tesla is the only company who manufactures their EVs in California! This is insane,” Musk wrote on X, which he also owns.

BENTLEY PUSHES BACK ALL-EV LINEUP TIMELINE TO 2035

Those buying or leasing Tesla vehicles accounted for about 42% of the state’s rebates, The Associated Press reported, citing data from the California Air Resources Board.

Newsom’s office told Fox Business Digital that the proposal is intended to foster market competition, and any potential market cap is subject to negotiation with the state Legislature. 

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“Under a potential market cap, and depending on what the cap is, there’s a possibility that Tesla and other automakers could be excluded,” the governor’s office said. “But that’s again subject to negotiations with the legislature.”

Newsom’s office noted that such market caps have been part of rebate programs since George W. Bush’s administration in 2005.

Democrat California Gov. Gavin Newsom

Newsom has pushed Californians to replace gas-powered vehicles with zero-emission vehicles. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Federal tax credits for EVs are currently worth up to $7,500 for new zero-emission vehicles. President-elect Trump has previously vowed to end the credit.

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California has surpassed 2 million zero-emission vehicles sold, according to the governor’s office. The state, however, could face a $2 billion budget deficit next year, Reuters reported, citing a non-partisan legislative estimate released last week.

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