California
Six earthquakes hit Southern California in one week. Does that mean ‘The Big One’ is coming?
In recent days, Southern California has experienced one earthquake after another. A 3.6 in Ojai on May 31. Two of a similar magnitude under the East Los Angeles area of El Sereno. Another three quakes near Newport Beach and Costa Mesa.
While these quakes were far weaker than historic temblors like the 6.7 Northridge Earthquake of 1994, which caused an estimated $20bn in damage and killed over 57 people, do they herald the arrival of the so-called Big One in a state sitting on multiple, highly active faultlines?
There’s the notorious 800-mile-long San Andreas, which runs from near the Mexico border, east past Los Angeles, then up the coast north of Sacramento.
Major quakes occur along the fault every 180 years or so, and the San Andreas hasn’t had a majorly powerful one since 1906. The US Geological Survey estimates it has a 60 percent chance of causing a magnitude 6.7 or greater in the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years.
Of even greater concern is the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which runs from Northern California to British Columbia, Canada. It’s overdue for an even larger quake compared with historical averages.
So, are the recent earthquakes an ominous omen of something larger, or business as usual in a state with an estimated 35 quakes a day?
The El Sereno quakes, for example, happened just under the Puente Hills thrust fault, which runs beneath downtown Los Angeles and Orange County. The 10-mile deep fault angles like a ramp and gets closest to the surface near the LA campus of the University of Southern California. If a quake along this fault hits the loose earth of the Los Angeles Basin, it could amplify the intensity of an earthquake by up to ten times compared to areas located on bedrock.
The Newport Beach-Costa Mesa temblors, meanwhile, took place near the Compton thrust fault, which could raise the LA River by up to 5 feet in a strong quake, wreaking havoc on city sewer systems. There have been six quakes above magnitude 7 along the fault in the last 12,000 years, according to geologists.
Scientists argue that instead of focusing solely on the largest quakes by magnitude, the key consideration is how much damage they could do to densely settled areas. The San Andreas, despite its famous reputation, runs for large sections through sparesly populated desert.
“In some respects, the ‘big one’ in terms of damages and deaths would be ones running through town rather than one that’s a long distance away,” Dr. Pat Abbott, professor of geology emeritus at San Diego State University, told KSWB last year. “There’s the size of the earthquake, and then also where you are situated compared to where the fault’s moving.”
He pointed to major quakes like the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas earthquakes, as well 1994’s Northridge earthquake, all of which were under the 8.0 magnitude contemplated in “Big One” scenarios but which still caused “horrendous” damage.
“Unfortunately, earthquake prediction remains an extremely challenging endeavor,” according to the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services website. “While scientists can monitor fault lines and detect patterns of seismic activity, they cannot predict exact earthquakes reliably.”
Instead, scientists deal more in the realm of long-term probability, which can inform what high-risk areas can do to prepare for the day when the hard-to-predict prospect of a major quake arrives.
For instance, the USGS estimates that there’s a 72 per cent chance a 6.7 or greater magnitude quake will hit the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years.
Finding a greater level of precise prediction is the “holy grail” of earthquake science, University of Washington seismologist Harold Tobin wrote last year.
“Science has not yet found a way to make actionable earthquake predictions,” he wrote. “A useful prediction would specify a time, a place and a magnitude – and all of these would need to be fairly specific, with enough advance notice to be worthwhile.”
In the meantime, until that magic predictor code is unlocked, governments can push for preparedness measures like digital alert systems, practice drills, and building retrofits, while individual citizens are advised to have emergency kits in place and drop to their knees, cover their head and neck, and hold onto something stable when a quake begins.
“While SCA 2 was one of many efforts to help address the housing crisis, the November’s ballot will be very crowded, and reaching voters will be difficult and expensive,” Allen said in a statement. “In addition, the legislature recently passed my SB 469, which substantially addresses some of the most significant concerns about how Article 34 might be impacting housing production.”
SB 469 clarifies that the use of state affordable housing dollars does not trigger Article 34’s requirement for voter approval. Allen said his focus is on determining whether these efforts are “making a significant dent in addressing the problem,” adding that quickly building more affordable housing is a priority.
Backed by the California Real Estate Association, the forerunner to the current California Association of Realtors, Article 34 was first adopted by voters in 1950. Realtors played on voters’ fears that affordable housing would lead to greater racial integration of exclusively white neighborhoods.
CAR issued a formal apology in 2022 for its past support of Article 34, with association President Otto Catrina condemning the actions and vowing to address the legacy of its “discriminatory policies and practices.”
The organization “remains a strong supporter of the repeal of Article 34 … which adds unnecessary hurdles and costs to the creation of affordable housing,” CAR spokesperson Sanjay Wagle said in a statement.
Wagle noted that a majority of Californians support repealing the provision but cited research showing a voter education campaign would be needed to explain the article’s effects.
“The cost of such a campaign in an election year with so many initiatives on the ballot made this campaign more costly and difficult, thus making it more logical to pursue a repeal on a future ballot,” Wagle wrote. “We thank Sen. Allen and Sen. Wiener for their efforts on this repeal effort and look forward to working [with] them and other stakeholders on this issue in the future.”
Though Penn State has been busily filling its 2025 recruiting class in June, the program hasn’t stopped looking ahead. The Nittany Lions on Tuesday received a commitment from 4-star California quarterback Troy Huhn, who became the second player in Penn State football’s 2026 recruiting class.
Huhn (6-4, 205 pounds) will be a junior at Mission Hills High, just north of San Diego. He threw for 1,623 yards and 16 touchdowns as a sophomore last season. Huhn quickly built a strong offer sheet that included Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Auburn and Notre Dame, among many others. Huhn took an unofficial visits to Ohio State and Penn State in June, committing to the Nittany Lions two weeks after his trip.
Huhn is the 2026 recruiting class’ 10th-rated quarterback prospect, according to the 247Sports Composite, and a top-15 player in California. On3 ranks Huhn highest among the major recruiting services, slotting him at No. 60 nationally and sixth at quarterback.
Huhn, who committed to Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and quarterbacks coach Danny O’Brien, spent time with head coach James Franklin during his unofficial visit. He told Sean Fitz of Blue-White Illustrated that Franklin made an impression.
“Coach O’Brien was great, but really my main thing when I was getting out there was to have more time with coach Franklin. They definitely gave that to me,” Huhn said in his interview with Blue-White Illustrated. “I really felt the love from coach Franklin. He’s very business, he’s awesome, he’s a funny guy. My mom loves him, he loves my mom. That relationship with him is now a lot better and I’m glad I got to spend that time with him.”
Huhn joins Harrisburg athlete Messiah Mickens on the ground floor of Penn State’s 2026 recruiting class. Mickens committed to Penn State in August 2023. Penn State had been recruiting several 2026 quarterbacks alongside Huhn. One of their targets, Dia Bell, recently committed to Texas.
Huhn’s commitment continued a prolific stretch for the Nittany Lions. Franklin and his staff have received commitments from five players in a four-day stretch. Four of them committed to Penn State’s 2025 recruiting class.
The most recent 2025 commitment belonged to Max Granville, a 4-star prospect from Texas and first-team all-state honoree as a junior. Granville, who will be a senior at Fort Bend Christian Academy, is rated as a 4-star linebacker according to the 247Sports Composite. However, the 6-3, 220-pound Granville projects at defensive end and was recruited by Penn State defensive line coach Deion Barnes. Granville chose Penn State after making an official visit to State College earlier in June. He also visited USC, Texas A&M and Oklahoma in June and took an official visit to Baylor in April.
Penn State opens the 2024 football season Aug. 31 at West Virginia. The game is scheduled for a noon kickoff on FOX.
BREAKING: Four-Star QB Troy Huhn (2026) has Committed to Penn State, he tells me for @on3recruits
The 6’4 205 QB from San Marcos, CA chose the Nittany Lions over Ohio State and Auburn
Ranked as the No. 6 QB in ‘26 (per On3)
“I’m Home #WEARE”https://t.co/lKvct8u4a2 pic.twitter.com/VtLZZ6xH1I
— Hayes Fawcett (@Hayesfawcett3) June 25, 2024
More Penn State Football Recruiting
Penn State receives commitment from 4-star Maryland prospect
Versatile New Jersey prospect commits to the Nittany Lions
Former Penn State linebacker commit switches to Rutgers
AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich.
(FOX40.COM) — An evacuation order is in effect for areas of Butte County amid a wildfire, according to the Butte County Sheriff’s Office.
Around 8:30 p.m. on Monday, BCSO issued an evacuation order for the Apache Fire on the south side of Grubbs Road between Crossa Country Road and Alta Arosa Drive in zones 884 and 885. Shortly after, evacuation orders were also issued for all of zone 884, 865, 866, 868, and 869. For information about zone locations click or tap here.
An evacuation warning was also issued for zones 867 and 883.
At 9:45 p.m., the Apache Fire has burned through 466 acres, according to Cal Fire. By 10:30 p.m. it reached more than 650 acres.
For more information visit www.buttecounty.net, or call (833) 512-5378.
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