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Housing tracker: A slowdown in the Southern California market for homes and rentals

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Housing tracker: A slowdown in the Southern California market for homes and rentals


The Southern California housing market is downshifting.

The average home price in the six-county region fell 0.3% from October to $869,288 in November, according to Zillow, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines.

“There is really no urgency from buyers,” said Mark Schlosser, a Compass agent in the Los Angeles area. “They are waiting.”

Prices are now 1.3% off their all-time high in July, but some economists say prospective home buyers and sellers shouldn’t expect home values to plunge — one reason behind the shift is the market typically slows in the fall and prices are still above where they were a year ago.

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Still, more homes are hitting the market and mortgage interest rates remain high, creating a situation of slightly more supply and slightly less demand.

As a result, annual price growth has slowed. Last month, Southern California home prices were 4.3% higher than a year earlier, compared to a recent peak of 9.5% in April.

Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist with Zillow, said he expects annual price growth in Southern California to slow further next year, but not turn negative.

Though more home owners are choosing to sell their home, many others still don’t want to give up their ultra-low mortgage rates they took out during the pandemic.

Divounguy said there’s also California’s long-running problem of building too few homes for all the people who want to live here. In some places that build more, prices are already falling compared to last year.

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In the Austin metro area, prices were down 3.4% in November, according to Zillow.

“Until we see inventory catch up, like we have in some of these big metros that built a ton of housing, I don’t think we are going to see negative prices,” he said.

Locally, Zillow forecasts home prices in November 2025 to be 1.5% higher than they are today across Orange and Los Angeles counties. In the Inland Empire, values should climb 2.7%

Though prices may keep rising, if incomes climb as well and mortgage rates fall, the housing market could become more affordable to people looking to break in.

Depending on the time frame one looks at, that’s already happening to some extent.

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Inflation and economic growth play a major role in the direction of mortgage rates. In May, mortgage rates were above 7%, but then steadily declined to 6.08% in September, amid signs inflation was easing and the economy was weakening.

Rates started climbing again, following stronger than expected job growth and fear among investors that an incoming Trump administration would institute policies such as sweeping tariffs and tax cuts that would reignite inflation.

In late November, mortgages rates hit 6.84%, but have declined somewhat since, clocking in at 6.6% as of Dec. 12, according to Freddie Mac.

In a statement announcing the latest mortgage rate figures, Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater noted that “while the outlook for the housing market is improving, the improvement is limited given that homebuyers continue to face stiff affordability headwinds.”

Note to readers

Welcome to the Los Angeles Times’ Real Estate Tracker. Every month we will publish a report with data on housing prices, mortgage rates and rental prices. Our reporters will explain what the new data mean for Los Angeles and surrounding areas and help you understand what you can expect to pay for an apartment or house. You can read last month’s real estate breakdown here.

Explore home prices and rents for November

Use the tables below to search for home sale prices and apartment rental prices by city, neighborhood and county.

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Rental prices in Southern California

In the last year, asking rents for apartments in many parts of Southern California have ticked down.

Experts say the trend is driven by a rising number of vacancies, which have forced some landlords to accept less in rent. Vacancies have risen because apartment supply is expanding and demand has fallen as consumers worry about the economy and inflation.

Additionally, the large millennial generation is increasingly aging into homeownership, as the smaller Generation Z enters the apartment market.

Prospective renters shouldn’t get too excited, however. Rent is still extremely high.

In November, the median rent for vacant units of all sizes across Los Angeles County was $2,057, down 1.2% from a year earlier but 7.2% more than in November 2019, according to data from Apartment List.



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California

Watch: Moment tornado strikes California parking lot

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Watch: Moment tornado strikes California parking lot


Footage captures the moment a tornado tore through Scotts Valley in northern California. At least four people were injured after it struck a parking lot, with cars flipped and trees downed, local authorities said. California averages around 11 tornadoes per year, according to the National Weather Service.



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Disneyland Reaches California Record $233 Million Wage Theft Settlement With Workers

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Disneyland Reaches California Record 3 Million Wage Theft Settlement With Workers


The Walt Disney Co. has reached a California record $233 million settlement with Disneyland workers over a 2019 class-action wage theft lawsuit.

The settlement will provide back pay to workers at the Anaheim theme park, with interest dating back to the start of 2019, and comes as Anaheim is set to raise the minimum wage to $20.50 per hour at the start of 2025. Disney approved the preliminary settlement on Friday and it will be reviewed by a Superior Court judge on Jan. 17 before workers are notified.

The lawsuit alleged that in 2019, Disney did not adjust wages in accordance with the passage of Measure L, an Anaheim ballot proposition that required companies that received tax rebates from the city — namely Disney — to pay at least $15/hour.

Disney’s attorneys argued that it did not have tax rebate agreements with Anaheim and wasn’t subject to the terms of the law. A judge initially sided with Disney, but an appellate court reversed the decision after it was determined that such agreements were made with the city as part of a 1996 expansion deal that helped pave the way for the creation of Disneyland’s neighbor park, Disney’s California Adventure.

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The California Supreme Court later turned down Disney’s request to hear the case, ending the legal battle.

The settlement is the latest victory for Disneyland workers after a multiyear labor campaign in which employees outlined the financial struggles they face despite being employed by the beloved “Happiest Place on Earth.” The park’s employees staged protests outside the entrance to the Disneyland Resort and shared stories of their struggles to reporters and on social media.

Their struggle even reached the attention of Walt Disney’s grandniece, Abigail E. Disney, who interviewed Disneyland employees for her 2022 documentary, “The American Dream and Other Fairy Tales.” Some employees told her that they had to live out of their cars on the streets of Anaheim and struggled to even provide food for their families.

Along with the lawsuit, Disney workers pushed for stronger wages through their union reps at the Master Services Council, a coalition of four unions that represent over 14,000 Disneyland employees. After voting to authorize a strike, MSC members and negotiators reached a deal that raised base pay to $24/hour.

The post Disneyland Reaches California Record $233 Million Wage Theft Settlement With Workers appeared first on TheWrap.

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Column: How organized labor boosted California Democrats — by not talking like Democrats

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Column: How organized labor boosted California Democrats — by not talking like Democrats


Democrats have a growing problem with union members and working-class voters, a building block that’s been foundational to their political success.

Lorena Gonzalez, head of the California Labor Federation, thinks she has at least a partial solution.

“We’ve got to listen to them,” she said, “and not talk about things that do not play in their life, or that they don’t identify with.”

That may seem as straightforward as a palm-slap to the forehead. (Well, duh!) But it’s not necessarily something union leaders have done in the past. Often, Gonzalez said, the top-down instruction to labor’s political troops has been, “This is our message. Go sell it.”

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Vote Harris. Elect a Democratic Congress. Stop Trump.

But none of that, she said, resonated with the large number of Republican and conservative-leaning California voters who also happen to be union members in proud standing. So the Labor Federation tried something different this election, avoiding words such as “Democrat” and “Republican,” “Biden,” “Harris” and “Trump” in its political pitch.

“The usual go-to, the top-of-the-ticket discussion with our union members, wasn’t going to get us anywhere,” Gonzalez said last week in a lengthy conversation at the Labor Federation’s downtown Sacramento headquarters. “And it would just shut them down for everything else.”

California was an oasis this November in a largely barren Democratic landscape. Even as they lost the White House and Senate, the party flipped three House seats in the state, helping Democrats to an overall gain of a single seat and holding Republicans to the barest majority in decades.

Several of those California races were very close, so the Democratic success can be attributed to any number of factors. But at least some credit goes to the Labor Federation and its speak-no-partisanship strategy, which helped yield a significant number of crossover votes in a several closely fought congressional contests.

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As Democrats spend the next few years soul-searching and wilderness-wandering, it’s an approach to winning union members and working-class voters that, Gonzalez suggested, is worth studying across the country.

As recently as 2012, Democratic presidential candidates could count on the support of about 6 in 10 voters from union households. (That’s how exit pollsters typically measure the sentiment of union members; they ask whether a voter or someone they are living with belongs to a union.)

That percentage has fallen in every election Donald Trump has been on the ballot, to just about 5 in 10 voters. The decline may not seem like a lot, but even a small shift matters in close elections — especially in battleground states with large union memberships, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The California strategy grew out of a series of focus groups undertaken soon after Gonzalez, a former state lawmaker, became head of the Labor Federation in July 2022. “What did I want to do?” she asked, as the clang of a trolley car rang from the K Street Mall below. “Not talk to our members, but listen to them.”

Discussions were held throughout the state, in the Central Valley, the Inland Empire, Orange County and the L.A. region — home to the half-dozen most competitive congressional races in California. The groups were split among men and women, Democrats and Republicans; the separation was intended, Gonzalez said, to avoid turning conversations into political arguments.

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The survey found that in virtually every district there were more self-identified Republican union members than Democrats — which didn’t necessarily match up with members’ voter registration. “Take back the House,” the national Democratic rallying cry, was obviously “not gonna fly,” Gonzalez said, nor would a message built around keeping a Democrat in the White House — even if both were seen as being to the greater advantage of union members.

Instead, strategists drew on something that emerged from those focus groups: a fundamental belief in the value of diligent labor. “We would ask questions like, ‘What do you like about your union?’ ” Gonzalez recollected. The oft-heard response: “My union fights for me because I work hard.”

That, in turn, led to a campaign focused on the failings of the 118th Congress, historically one of the least productive in history. The message was simple. If you performed as poorly on the job as your representative in Washington, you’d be fired.

Variations on that theme were repeated to tens of thousands of union members in each of the six competitive districts. In mailers. In discussions on front porches. On refrigerator magnets sent to their homes. “If I got as little done at my job,” the magnets read, “this refrigerator would be empty.”

A refrigerator magnet mailed to union members by the California Federation of Labor suggested they would be fired if they performed as poorly as their congressional representative. This one targeted Rep. Ken Calvert

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(California Federation of Labor Unions)

Care was taken to include documentation from the likes of CNN and Fox News, lest attacks on the do-nothing Congress came across as a one-sided attack.

(It was a somewhat tougher sell in the open-seat contest to replace Democrat Katie Porter, but union strategists counted on Republican Scott Baugh being tainted by association with the Republican-led House. Democrat Dave Min narrowly won the Orange County contest.)

Rather than telling union members who they should vote for — the usual approach — “we left them to come to their own conclusion,” Gonzalez said. Not by making a partisan argument, but appealing to their work ethic.

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It seemed to work. Not perfectly. Democrats knocked off Reps. Mike Garcia in northern L.A. County, Michelle Steel in Orange County and John Duarte in the Central Valley. (The latter two by not much). They failed to oust Republicans David Valadao in the Valley and Ken Calvert in the Inland Empire.

But the strategy was successful enough that Gonzalez plans to sit down with national labor leaders for a debriefing.

It was admittedly difficult for the self-described “bleeding-heart liberal” not to press the hair-on-fire argument about the dangers of Trump and the need for a Democratic check on his authoritarian impulses. Typically, Gonzalez said, “That’s how we talk.”

The approach to California union members — more a nudge than a shove — also had to be sold to skeptics. There has long been a sense within the labor movement that if “we just … ‘educate’ them enough,” she said, “they’ll be good Democrats.”

But that bespeaks an arrogance the party will have to overcome if it’s going to stanch the bleeding among union and working-class voters. Only then will Democrats end their exile in Washington.

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