ARIZONA — The Arizona Cardinals didn’t quite maximize the talents of WR Marquise Brown during his time in the desert, though new beginnings could see Hollywood’s lights shine with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Brown was acquired for a first-round pick on draft night a few years back, and the hope was he and former Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins could form a dynamic duo for Arizona to lean on for years.

That didn’t come to fruition, and now Brown finds himself on a back-to-back Super Bowl winning team with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball.

There’s plenty of reason to expect Brown to bounce back in 2024, says PFF – at least in terms of fantasy football production.

“Playing through injury for the Arizona Cardinals last year, the Kansas City Chiefs‘ new field-stretching wide receiver Marquise Brown delivered half-PPR and PPR WR5 results in both season-long and per-game scoring. Fantasy managers should expect Brown to bounce back via positional top-36 results operating as Kansas City’s largely uncontested deep threat,” wrote Nic Bodiford, who explored Brown’s volume target totals after going through the various names Kansas City failed to replace Tyreek Hill with.

“Brown has efficiently earned high-volume target totals in each of the last four years despite regularly running routes past the sticks. His catch rates leave some to be desired but his 2023 down year inaccurately reflects his moderate surehandedness.Among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 280 targets from 2020-to-2022, Brown’s 64.5% catch rate ranks 25th.

“Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a notable upgrade on Brown’s former starting quarterbacks, Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson and Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray. … Fantasy managers should expect Brown to bounce back as a WR3 or better in 2024.”

Even in the realm of actual football, there’s reasonable belief that Brown can emerge as a top weapon in Kansas City despite the presence of others around him. Mahomes has an arm like no other quarterback, and if Brown can remain healthy in 2023, the Chiefs may have gotten a steal on the market.

PHOENIX — Each summer, thunderstorms tower in our otherwise sunny Arizona sky. Winds shift out of the south and southeast, bringing moisture in all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. That moisture rises and forms thunderstorms in the heat of the day. This is our monsoon.

Much of Arizona typically receives 30 to 50 percent of its annual rainfall during the monsoon months of June, July, August, and September, which helps replenish our dry land and diminish wildfire threats.

But, the monsoon as we know it is changing. As our atmosphere gets hotter with climate change, it’s able to essentially hold more water vapor and that’s altering how our monsoon behaves.

“We don’t get as many storms, but when they do come, they’re tending to produce higher rainfall amounts, more intense rainfall, and more intense winds,” says Dr. Christopher Castro with the Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences Department at the University of Arizona.

That’s exactly what we saw play out here in Phoenix last summer. It was our hottest and driest monsoon on record. Sky Harbor only received 0.15 inches of rain. That’s more than 2 inches below normal.

But, what is considered a “normal” amount of monsoon rain has changed a lot in the past 50 years.

Every 10 years, new normals are calculated based on a rolling 30-year average. Our latest update came in 2021, giving us a new average that is based on rainfall data from 1991 to 2020.

This new normal showed an average rainfall in Phoenix for the monsoon season of 2.43 inches of rain. That’s more than a quarter of an inch drier than the previous average, which is a big difference here in the desert!

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Castro and his team at the University of Arizona are leading the way when it comes to research on how climate change is impacting our monsoon. Although not yet published in scientific peer-reviewed journals, they have run experiments simulating how storms move down into the Valley.

They have discovered that a greater number of green spaces, like parks, golf courses, and green landscaping, are leading to fewer storms making it down into the city.

“The presence of all these watered areas is suppressing the amount of instability in the atmosphere. So, it’s harder to initiate storms from the outflow boundaries,” he says.

So, as storms try to move down off of the Mogollon Rim, they are now often getting diverted around the periphery of the Phoenix metro instead of rolling right through it like they used to.

Scientists like Castro have also seen a broadening of our monsoon ridge, which is impacting our monsoon, too.

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It’s the ridge of high pressure, which sets up near the Four Corners during the summer, that allows monsoon moisture to flow in.

“What we’ve observed in the last 20 years or so, is that the monsoon ridge is growing more intense and more spatially expansive. The bigger and more expansive that ridge is, the more propensity there is for the air to sink from the upper atmosphere. So. it suppresses the atmospheric instability and it makes storms harder to form,” Castro says.

That’s exactly what happened last year. As that ridge of high pressure sat over Arizona, it suppressed storm formation and made it much hotter. Our 2023 monsoon season was the hottest and driest on record in Phoenix.

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2020 was also a so-called “non-soon” with only 2 days of measurable rain in Phoenix. That year, we received 90% of our monsoon rain (0.90 inches) in just 2 hours with one particularly bad storm the night of August 20, 2020.

Castro says that’s the fingerprint of climate change in the desert.

“It’s really about the extremes. The monsoon is, generally all the way around, getting more extreme. So, when we get our heat waves now those are more intense than they used to be and when it rains, it may not rain as frequently as it used to, but it tends to be more intense,” Castro says.

That intensity makes it harder for us to adapt.

When it’s extreme heat, we see more heat-related deaths. We had 987 heat-related deaths across Arizona last year. 645 of those happened in Maricopa County, mostly during the hottest and driest monsoon on record.

When it’s extreme rainfall, we see more flash flooding and complete destruction near wildfire burn scars since the charred ground can no longer absorb water.

“From the water supply perspective, it’s bad news for recharge of the groundwater table. If you’re drying out the soils and then realizing your precipitation with only a few intense events, more of that precipitation is likely to run off. There’s also a greater danger for wildfires to happen and that totally changes the characteristics of the permeability of the soil. Then, when it rains, that water will immediately wash off very similar to a landslide,” Castro says.

A bigger, broader monsoon ridge also deflects atmospheric disturbances, known as inverted troughs, from tracking through Arizona.

Those disturbances often serve as triggers to get widespread rain and thunderstorm activity going during the monsoon.

“The expanded monsoon ridge is suppressing the path of those inverted troughs more to the south, so the number of inverted troughs is decreasing. So, the frequency of big precipitation events is decreasing. But when they do occur, they’re occurring in a more moist environment that is favorable for heavier amounts of precipitation,” says Castro.

We’re seeing similar impacts across the country as the number of heavy downpours increases in this warming world.

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While downpours are increasing, periods of drought are increasing too.

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So we are increasing both of these extremes as our climate changes.

Castro says, “We’re going into a world where we have these more dramatic swings in climate variability, whether it’s winter or summer. There’s been this term coined climate whiplash, you go from one extreme to another, either between seasons or within a season. This is devastating from the standpoint of climate and our resiliency to the natural climate because if we’re exceeding the ranges of which our natural and human systems can cope with these whiplash swings, you’re going to go from one year where a dam nearly fails because it’s flooded to a year of devastating wildfires and the ecosystem cannot recover.”

Arizona… home of the heat dome!

It’s so hot in Arizona, no it’s not the start of a joke, it’s actually super hot in Arizona! Anyone who has traveled through Arizona already knows that the heat there is no joke; this year alone the heat in Phoenix has already broken record reaching 113 degrees! Summer hasn’t officially began!

Last year’s heat in Arizona was so extreme that the medical examiner’s office was over capacity due to heat-related deaths that officials had to bring in coolers to store the bodies. This year, doesn’t look like it’s going to get any better! However, the people of Arizona are hoping that the heat will calm down a bit with monsoon rain. Yes, you read that right, “monsoon” rain.

There is most definitely a monsoon season in the Arizona desert; and to get the rains to bless the desert, it needs to get really hot first!

Arizona’s monsoon season starts on June 15 and runs through September 30 every year. This period is characterized by increased humidity and frequent thunderstorms, which can bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and sometimes even flash flooding to the region. The monsoon season significantly impacts the desert landscape, providing much-needed moisture and relief from the intense summer heat.

With monsoon season underway, it doesn’t always mean that there will be rain in the forecast everyday. Robert Cerveny, a professor of geographical sciences at Arizona State University, told KTAR News 92.3 FM:

People have to realize that it doesn’t start out wet, that the first few weeks of our monsoon are dry. That means a lot of lightning, a lot of wind, very little rain, and those are the perfect recipes … for wildfires.

With a dry season and brutal temperatures, I’m sure everyone in Arizona patiently await the first rainfall of monsoon season! You can learn more about Arizona’s monsoon season here.