ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – The Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development is looking ahead to a potentially brighter economic picture in the state in 2024, estimating there will be over 5,000 new jobs. But, a big question remains: Will there be enough people to fill those positions?
According to the state, the working-age population, or Alaskans between 18 and 64, continued its downward trend in 2022-23, with an estimated 2% decline. According to a state demographer, since 2013, Alaska has lost 13% of its working-age population — about 33,000 people, more than the population of Juneau — with an aging state population and fewer residents moving to Alaska.
The baby boom population, according to demographer David Howell, is expected to be completely aged out by 2030.
“It’s something that we knew was kind of going to happen,” Howell said.
“It’s not so much that there’s this exodus of people going out of the state, it’s more so that people aren’t coming in,” he added. “We knew that we would see a little bit larger outflows as the baby boomers start to hit those 65 ages, because we’ve always lost populations at the senior age groups. So, numerically, we knew that would happen, but at the working ages [18-64], we’re not really seeing that much more going out, just less coming in.”
Howell said historically, a big chunk of that group was made up of people in their early 20s and 30s. However, now, there is a decline in all age groups moving to the state.
“People are looking for workers all around the country. And so I think people aren’t having to move to find a job, necessarily. And so, you know, if you can kind of stay where you are, and get a job, then, you might just stay where you are,” Howell said.
With a large employment gap in an economy ripe with job openings, Howell said it’s currently an employee market.
The state added in a recent report that Alaska has two job openings for each unemployed job seeker. The decline in the working-age population, Howell said, puts the economy at a standstill.
“We’ve seen areas of the country where the working-age population has stagnated or declined in other years, and, yeah, in general, it does lead to a stagnant economy because you can’t expand that quickly because you don’t have that working population to fill those new jobs,” Howell said.
Jenna Wright, the CEO of the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, agrees with Howell. She said Anchorage needs to find a way to attract and retain residents to create a thriving economy and help grow back the working-age population. She said investing in infrastructure would be a good start.
“We’ve got great trail systems, we have the beautiful Chugach State Park but we don’t have a ton of access,” Wright said. “All of the parking lots are full right now. So the more that we can invest in quality of life elements that work for a diverse set of people, that’s going to be what’s most important to retaining and attracting talent.”
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