Politics
Costs of Iran war will linger despite conflict’s end, experts say
WASHINGTON — A spectacular economic upturn is on its way, President Trump promised Americans last week, galvanized in part by a deal brokered this month to end his war with Iran.
“Very soon you’ll be at $2.50 a gallon for gasoline,” Trump told a crowd Wednesday night on the National Mall. The next year, he said, “is set for an economic boom the likes of which no nation has ever seen before.”
Economists are skeptical. The effects of the war and other factors driving inflation are likely to stick around for months, experts say, presenting an ongoing challenge to American households — and to Trump’s party as it seeks to retain control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
Yesenia De La Torre, 24, from Culver City pumps gas at the Chevron gas station on Sawtelle Boulevard and Culver Boulevard on June 15. Despite an agreement announced Sunday to end the Iran war and open the Strait of Hormuz, high oil, gasoline prices and energy supply problems won’t be solved overnight.
(Kayla Bartkowski / Los Angeles Times)
The war’s end will not create “a complete snap-back,” said Patrick Harker, professor at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
“Markets are still cautious, and the infrastructure that’s been destroyed [in the Middle East] is going to take a while to re-create,” Harker said. “Inflation’s going to stay elevated for a while.”
Oil prices were dropping last week — falling to their prewar level Friday — and average gas prices fell by 7 cents per gallon over a week ago. But it will take significant time for oil shipping to ramp up through the Strait of Hormuz, infrastructure to be rebuilt and gas prices to drop, said Michael Negron, senior fellow for economic opportunity at the Center for American Progress.
“I would expect there to be a continued inching downward,” Negron said, but “we’re not going to just go back within weeks to $2.90 per gallon.”
That means the prices of gas and of other essentials aren’t likely to improve dramatically before the midterms, in which affordability has become a driving issue. It could heighten challenges for Republicans, who are defending their majorities in the U.S. House and Senate, as Democrats seek to leverage the issue to gain ground.
Positive messaging about the economy from Trump and other officials “doesn’t really resonate” with Americans who are struggling to make ends meet, said Gina Plata-Nino of the Food Research and Action Center, a national anti-hunger advocacy organization.
“When you’re still making the same amount of money but there’s less for you to be able to pay [for] your basic needs — gas is more expensive, food is more expensive — it doesn’t really add up,” she said.
A fruit stand on West 7th Street sells bananas for $2 per bunch.
(Carlin Stiehl / For The Times)
Americans question the costs
The Iran war has cost the average American household between $775 and $1,300 so far in fuel and taxpayer costs, according to an analysis by Roger Pielke, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
The national average gas price sat at $3.90 on Friday, according to AAA, and California’s average was $5.48 per gallon, down 13 cents from a week earlier.
The increase in oil prices has also affected diesel and fertilizer prices, creating a ripple effect through several sectors, including agriculture. Consumer prices rose 4.1% in May from a year earlier, putting the inflation gauge at a three-year high.
Trump has leaned on a bullish message about the economy, but he has largely dismissed Americans’ worries about affordability, calling it a “fake word” and a “hoax.” Last week, he undermined the first major progress by Congress on the issue, refusing to sign a bipartisan housing affordability bill after both chambers passed it.
President Donald Trump closes his eyes as Dr. Ben Carson, left, speaks during an event with the White House Religious Liberty Commission in the Oval Office on Friday.
(Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images)
Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating on the economy dropped to 33% last week in an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll — his lowest ever for that poll and 3 points below former President Biden’s worst reading on the question during his term.
Nearly four-fifths of respondents said that gas prices present some sort of strain, with 34% categorizing it as a major strain and 44% calling it a minor strain. Half of respondents who said they were not vacationing this summer said cost was the reason.
And only 23% of Americans say the war was worth the costs, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted days after the Trump administration announced the framework agreement to end the conflict earlier this month.
“People [are] just feeling like they’re getting left behind,” Harker said. “That’s a very real, palpable feeling when you go out and talk to people. They’re worried.”
The president and his party need a midterms message that “real economic change” is coming, said Brian Reisinger, a rural policy analyst in Wisconsin and a former GOP strategist.
“It has to be substance behind the sell,” Reisinger said.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) speaks to reporters after the weekly Senate policy luncheons at the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday in Washington, D.C. Thune spoke on a meeting with President Trump on the Iran deal.
(Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images)
U.S.-Iran talks on shaky ground
Trump’s boosters have hailed the Iran deal as a victory for the president. And Trump has justified the shock to gas prices as “worth it not to have a nuclear weapon” in Iran, though the war has not achieved the president’s stated aims, which included the elimination of its nuclear program.
“President Trump was clear all along that there would be short-term, temporary disruptions to energy markets, and that oil and gas prices will quickly fall as soon as the Iran situation is resolved,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said Friday.
How rapidly the conflict will be resolved is not yet clear. The U.S.-Iran negotiations were on shaky ground by week’s end, with each country offering diametrically opposed messaging on the status of key points of negotiation.
Analysts say much of the increase in traffic through the strait has been driven by the return of Iranian oil to global markets. Trump agreed in the controversial deal with Iran to lift sanctions on Iranian oil, allowing Tehran to resume trading its most valuable export and breaking with decades of U.S. policy.
The unpredictability of the talks is another factor keeping energy companies, shippers and insurers cautious for now, Negron said.
“Everything is to be negotiated in the next nearly two months,” he said. “It is natural to expect there to be additional risk priced into each barrel of oil, into the insurance people are paying, just because of the volatility and uncertainty of where we are.”
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The DOJ’s expanded anti-fraud task force made its first sweeping bust of Medicaid scofflaws in Pennsylvania this month, drawing comparisons to the massive fraud scandals that rocked Minnesota — but with one major difference.
Republicans and Democrats in the state united in outrage after nearly two dozen people were charged in Philadelphia and elsewhere. The DOJ noted Pennsylvania spends $8 billion on Medicaid home-care services, more than almost any other state, and those services were the target of the busts.
“The allegations are really disturbing just as they are in Minnesota and other places where we’ve seen this,” House Ways & Means Committee member Lloyd Smucker, R-Pa., told Fox News Digital in an exclusive interview.
PENNSYLVANIA AG EXPLAINS WHY STATE LEADS NATION IN MEDICAID FRAUD CONVICTIONS WHILE OTHERS BATTLE MASS SCHEMES
Rep. Lloyd K. Smucker, R-Pa., addresses a hearing on Capitol Hill. (Bill Clark/Getty Images)
“It’s criminal activity that is taking money from individuals who really need it. And this is this is Medicaid — It’s not Medicare, which is more for seniors. But this is for people who truly need help, who are disabled — these are individuals who are relying on Medicaid to help them get through every day. And these are criminals who are taking that money and lining their pockets with it,” said Smucker, whose Lancaster-area district has an older population and has anywhere from two in 10 to four in 10 constituents enrolled in Medicare, Medicaid or both, according to reports.
The DOJ’s anti-fraud chief echoed those sentiments while describing some of the most egregious cases among the 19 Pennsylvania defendants charged as of last week.
One suspect billed Medicaid for services that supposedly occurred while police had pulled him over for a moving violation and charged him on suspicion of marijuana possession, according to the DOJ.
Another suspect billed Medicaid for services during a period when he was in court watching a family member get sentenced for Medicaid fraud-related offenses, according to Colin McDonald.
I’M OHIO’S STATE AUDITOR — MEDICAID FRAUD IS NOT JUST A WASHINGTON PROBLEM
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks during a re-election campaign kickoff event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (Rachel Wisniewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Another suspect billed Medicaid for home-care services that McDonald said were supposedly provided while the suspect was driving for a rideshare company. Another billed for services while in prison, according to McDonald.
Smucker said Pennsylvania welcomes fellow Keystone Stater and CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz and his investigators, adding that he is grateful state officials in Harrisburg are also taking note.
That cooperation sets the Pennsylvania busts apart from those in Minnesota, where Gov. Tim Walz has faced accusations of inaction over what has become a multibillion-dollar scandal.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro signaled cooperation and collaboration with Republicans in going after Medicaid fraudsters in remarks his office made to Fox News Digital.
TIM WALZ BECOMES GOP PUNCHLINE IN SWEEPING NEW WAR ON WELFARE FRAUD
Shapiro, a Democrat and the commonwealth’s former attorney general, prosecuted public assistance-related crimes and now governs the state with the nation’s highest number of criminal convictions for Medicaid fraud.
The governor — who was considered a runner-up to Walz in then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ search for a running mate — said the commonwealth is a “national leader in stopping fraud.”
“Here in Pennsylvania, we combat fraud wherever we find it. In 2024, we charged 119 cases of Medicaid fraud — recovering more than $11 million for taxpayers,” Shapiro said in a recent statement.
“Governor Shapiro has made fighting public assistance fraud a cornerstone of his career in public service, rooting out waste, fraud and abuse as Attorney General where he cracked down on fraud and public assistance benefit theft, charging dozens of people who stole millions in taxpayer dollars,” Shapiro spokeswoman Rosie Lapowsky told Fox News Digital.
READ: DR. OZ PUTS ALL 50 GOVERNORS ON NOTICE OVER BILLIONS LOST TO MEDICAID FRAUD
Lapowsky said the Pennsylvania Department of Human Services (DHS) brought one of the cases referenced by McDonald to the Justice Department for further investigation during Shapiro’s tenure.
“[That is] clearly showing our system works,” she said, adding that Pennsylvania’s high number of home-care service providers is not by itself an indicator of fraud. Conservative critics in Minnesota and Washington state have pointed to similar provider numbers to raise suspicions about fraudulent activity.
Pennsylvania — the fifth-most populous state, behind California, Texas, Florida and New York — has seen a 20% increase since 2018 in the number of adults in home-care programs, according to DHS.
DHS said it employs “ongoing monitoring,” including an electronic visit-verification system, to ensure proper billing and curtail fraud. The department refers potential fraud cases to Republican Pennsylvania Attorney General David Sunday’s office.
WATCH: DR. OZ SAYS NEWSOM, OTHER BLUE STATES HAVE TURNED MEDICAID FRAUD INTO A ‘FEATURE’
“This criminal conduct is much more than someone ‘working the system’ — the impact is deep and wide-ranging, as every dollar diverted deprives someone in need of care,” Sunday said in a statement.
“In collaboration with our partners, my office last year convicted more than 100 defendants, and clawed back more than $40 million that was intended for Pennsylvanians in need.”
In 2025, Sunday’s office handled 744 referrals from DHS alone, according to Harrisburg sources.
Smucker said all stakeholders must continue being vigilant for both Medicaid and Medicare-related fraud.
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“People like the four seasons here,” he said, referring to the high number of retirees who call Amish Country home.
“But we have a lot of people who are relying on these programs… and we have seen fraud across the system in federal programs. This is probably hundreds of billions per year that is being siphoned-off from taxpayer dollars,” he said.
Pennsylvania officials say investigators continue to make progress fighting Medicaid fraud.
“We are coming for you,” said former Pittsburgh U.S. Attorney Scott Brady, whom President Donald Trump tapped to lead the White House’s nationwide anti-fraud task force
The DOJ’s “Northeast Strike Force” was originally organized in Brooklyn and Newark before expanding into Pennsylvania as part of the broader crackdown.
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“Our message is clear: if you are a medical provider who chooses greed over your professional responsibility, DEA will hold you accountable,” said Drug Enforcement Administration Philadelphia chief Timothy Flaherty, whose agency is one of several participating in the new task force.
Fox News Digital’s Hannah Brennan contributed to this report.
Things people don’t want to do this summer, as evidenced by poor ratings: Watch CBS news anchor Tony Doukopil. Tune in to Paramount+’s sci-fi teen drama “Star Trek: Starfleet Academy.” Read President Trump’s Truth Social posts.
No matter how much Trump posts, and he has been posting a lot lately, traffic to the platform he uses as his megaphone for official White House statements and personal rants has fallen off significantly this summer. Last month, the overall number of monthly visitors to Truth Social was down about 36% from where it was in 2025, according to the online tracking firm Similarweb. The numbers were similarly dismal in June.
But Trump’s slumping media fortunes may soon get an infusion of cash, or bitcoin, or whatever it takes to line his coffers before the jig is up.
Never one to leave a source of income untapped, the president has come up with yet another way to add to the $2.2 billion he made in just the first year of his second term. His majority-owned Trump Media & Technology Group earlier this month announced that it was rolling out a new service aimed at cashing in on the president’s every word.
Truth API is a subscription service that offers early access to posts from Trump and other notable users of the platform, for a price. It’s charging fees of up to $100,000 a month.
But there’s a hiccup in the president’s latest grift. On Wednesday, media organizations Freedom of the Press Foundation and The Intercept sued Trump, filing a complaint saying that providing quicker access to his posts to those who pay was “extraordinary, corrupt, and unconstitutional.”
Their suit alleges that Truth API contradicts the 1st Amendment’s guarantee of equal public access to the president’s statements and violates the 5th Amendment by granting preferential access for “unreasonable sums.” The lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, asked the court to block Trump from publishing official government information exclusively on Truth Social.
So why is this particular moneymaking scheme garnering so much attention outside Trump’s many other grifts? Because a president’s words can, and often do, sway the stock market. In the frenetic world of Wall Street trading, early access to statements and news from the commander-in-chief gives subscribers an edge, and as NPR pointed out, that could mean a difference of millions of dollars.
Unlike any other sitting U.S. president, Trump in his second term has ignored traditional means of communication such as press briefings, live addresses or posting official announcements, executive actions, press releases and statements on the official White House website. He’s done so in favor of communicating through his own privately controlled platform, delivering wild posting sprees that often forgo the fact-based, informative briefings we the people still need from our elected officials. But even back when he was using Twitter (now X) during his first term, the White House said his tweets should be considered official statements.
That standard still holds for his frequent barrages of boasts, insults, threats, grouses and indecipherable dispatches via Truth Social. After the humiliating failure of his America 250 celebration, he fired off 67 posts on Truth Social in just two hours, posting almost every single minute between 11:12 a.m. and 1:14 p.m. His musings ranged from attacks on a federal judge to a photo of himself at a 1991 New York City tree-lighting ceremony with his “Home Alone 2” co-stars.
That spree is now among the thousands more posts from the president that have not been followed up by announcements from the White House outside of Truth Social. “In other words, President Trump’s posts are the only way to get official government news,” the lawsuit said.
Trump Media & Technology Group, or TMTG, is majority-owned by the president. It was launched following Trump’s account suspension across mainstream social platforms including Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. The platforms cited risks of inciting violence following the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot. Trump responded by creating his own platform, and Truth Social debuted in 2022.
But the platform’s parent company, TMTG, has lost money ever since it went public in 2024. On Monday, Trump Media reported a $238-million loss for the second quarter, tied mostly to cryptocurrency assets. Executives told investors on a conference call that they are now going to focus their energy on Truth Social and soft-explained their latest scheme to profit off the presidency.
“Our customers will get published and publicly available posts fractionally faster” than everyone else,” said Kevin McGurn, the company’s interim chief executive. He added that such early access is a “well-established business practice.”
Unless it’s a sitting U.S. president doing the selling. We’re in uncharted territory, once again. But another big question around this new subscription service is whether investors and traders can trust the intelligence they get from early access to Trump’s posts.
It was revealed this week that the president published deceptive information last month, putting the lives of dozens in danger. Before leaving a NATO meeting in Turkey, he posted that he’d be riding on the older Air Force One “for old time’s sake” instead of the newly retrofitted, Qatari-donated jet. His misdirection was part of an elaborate ruse to mask his transfer from Air Force One to a military fighter jet following intel that Iran may be targeting the president’s plane. The subterfuge involved him stowing away in an airport catering container to sneak onto the jet. Of course a president has to be protected, but Air Force One still had members of the press and his administration aboard when they sent it into the sky. Essentially, they were unwitting decoys.
Sometimes a president has to lie to stay safe. And oftentimes this president peddles misinformation as a means to other ends, like amassing more money for himself while holding on to his seat of power. Paying for early access to Trump’s posts is a great idea — for Trump.
Politics
Fauci refuses Senate appearance after invoking Fifth Amendment more than 100 times in COVID probe
Fauci held in contempt by Senate panel as states launch probes
A Senate panel has voted to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress after he invoked the Fifth Amendment 111 times during a hearing on the origins of COVID-19. ‘Outnumbered’ details HHS handing over work iPhone records and state subpoenas issued by officials in Florida, Alabama and Louisiana following the vote led by Senator Rand Paul.
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Dr. Anthony Fauci on Friday declined a request to voluntarily appear before a second Senate panel, opening another front in Republicans’ investigations into the former public health official’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
An attorney for Fauci rejected the request from Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, arguing that compelling Fauci to testify again after his contentious July 29 Senate hearing would “impermissibly harass or degrade Dr. Fauci for political purposes.”
Johnson has been conducting a parallel investigation into Fauci and the federal government’s response to COVID-19, including the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines.
SEN RON JOHNSON TALKS FAUCI EMAILS, NEW SENATE FILIBUSTER STRATEGY ON ‘RUTHLESS’
FILE – Former NIH Director Anthony Fauci is sworn in before testifying to Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on July 29, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The refusal comes after Republicans on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee voted along party lines last week to hold Fauci in contempt of Congress after he invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination more than 100 times during the July hearing.
Committee chairman Rand Paul, R-Ky., has sought to send the contempt referral directly to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the District of Columbia, bypassing a full Senate vote.
“It’s a good legal discussion, and we will make those legal points to DOJ in sending the referral over,” Paul told Fox News Digital ahead of last week’s contempt vote.
At issue is whether Fauci can invoke the Fifth Amendment after former President Joe Biden issued him a preemptive pardon before leaving office.
CAN FAUCI HIDE BEHIND THE FIFTH? GAME-CHANGING BIDEN PARDON MAY NOT PROVIDE COMPLETE COVER, EXPERTS SAY
FILE – Former NIH Director Anthony Fauci listens during a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on July 29, 2026, in Washington, D.C. Fauci declined to answer questions, asserting his Fifth Amendment right. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Paul has argued that Biden’s pardon removed Fauci’s risk of federal prosecution and therefore undermined his basis for refusing to answer lawmakers’ questions. Fauci and his attorneys have disputed that position.
Paul has spent years investigating Fauci’s role in the government’s response to COVID-19 and has accused the former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director of funding “risky” research that led to an alleged lab leak of the COVID-19 virus in China. Paul has repeatedly called for Fauci to be prosecuted.
Johnson’s subcommittee has separately obtained records related to Fauci and the government’s pandemic response. Fox News Digital previously confirmed that the Department of Health and Human Services sent the subcommittee a copy of Fauci’s pandemic-era cellphone.
The broader Homeland Security panel also received more than 1,000 pages of Fauci’s personal diary before his July hearing.
FILE – Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., gestures while addressing Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison during a hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday, Feb. 16, 2026. It is unclear if Johnson’s office will subpoena Fauci following the refusal. (CSPAN)
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Fox News Digital reached out to Johnson’s office to ask whether he intends to subpoena Fauci following the refusal. Fox News Digital also sought reaction from Paul’s office and asked Fauci attorney David Schertler whether Fauci would comply with a subpoena compelling his testimony.
Fox News Digital’s Alex Miller and Elizabeth Elkind contributed to this report.
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