Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris only trails Republican nominee former President Donald Trump by single digits in Alaska, a state that a Democratic presidential hopeful hasn’t won in six decades.
The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Alaska was President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964—exactly 60 years ago. The GOP has won the state in every presidential election since then, carrying the state by comfortable double-digit margins in recent cycles.
Trump’s margin did shrink in Alaska between 2016 and 2020. In his first election against Hillary Clinton, he carried the state by nearly 15 points, but that went down to a lead of 10 points when he was up against President Joe Biden. Notably, Alaskans bucked Trump’s favored Senate and House candidates in the 2022 midterm election.
Democratic Representative Mary Peltola and anti-Trump GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski won their races despite Trump endorsing their opponents and campaigning against them. They were buoyed by Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system, in which voters get to list and rank multiple options for each office on the ballot.
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Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email on Saturday morning.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a rally on September 13 in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. Former President Donald Trump greets supporters during a campaign rally on September 13 in Las Vegas. New polling suggests Harris is just… Vice President Kamala Harris holds a rally on September 13 in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. Former President Donald Trump greets supporters during a campaign rally on September 13 in Las Vegas. New polling suggests Harris is just a few points behind Trump in Alaska, which Democrats have not won in a presidential election since 1964.
Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Images via AFP/Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
What the Alaska Poll Shows
New polling conducted by Alaska Survey Research from September 11 to 12, after the ABC News debate between Harris and Trump, showed the Democrat down by 5 points with likely voters in the northwestern state. Harris had the support of 42 percent of respondents, whereas Trump had the backing of 47 percent.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was running as an independent but endorsed Trump in late August, received 5 percent support. An additional 6 percent said they were still undecided. Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they had watched the debate between Harris and Trump, with 52 percent saying Harris had won.
The poll included 1,254 likely Alaskan voters. The margin of error and confidence level were not posted with the results.
With ranked-choice voting, those who list Kennedy Jr. as their first choice could select Harris or Trump as their second choice on the ballot. Their votes would then be redistributed in a second round of counting, assuming Kennedy Jr. would be eliminated in the first round. Several other presidential hopefuls, including Libertarian contender Chase Oliver and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, have qualified to be on the ballot in Alaska.
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Q: If the November 2024 general election for US President was held today, for whom would you vote?
Among 1,254 LV’s:
Donald Trump 47 (48) Kamala Harris 42 (44) Robert Kennedy Jr 5 (4) Undecided 6 (5)
Nate Silver, the founder of the Silver Bulletin polling analysis, shared the polling on Substack on Friday, noting that his model has been “bullish” on Harris’ chances of winning Alaska.
“LOL, Silver Bulletin model had been randomly bullish on D chances in Alaska even before this poll. Just 3 electoral votes so unlikely to matter, but 8th-highest state in our Voter Power Index (impact per marginal vote),” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
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Silver previously founded the prominent FiveThirtyEight polling analysis site, which is now owned by ABC News. He parted ways with ABC and FiveThirtyEight in 2023.
What National and Swing State Polling Shows
Nationally, Harris appears to be narrowly ahead of Trump. Silver’s polling average shows the vice president with 48.3 percent support compared to the former president’s 46.2 percent. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with 48.1 percent and Trump with 45.4 percent.
In the critical swing states, Harris narrowly leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, according to Silver’s average. Meanwhile, Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona, with the candidates tied in North Carolina and Nevada.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by slim margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. Trump is narrowly ahead in Arizona and Georgia, while FiveThirtyEight shows the candidates tied in North Carolina.
The U.S. has scrambled fighter jets after Russian military aircraft were detected near Alaska for the second time this week.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said Friday that it had tracked and intercepted two Russian TU-142 military aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
An ADIZ is the area around sovereign airspace that requires any aircraft entering it to give information on its planned course, destination, and any additional details about its trip. It stretches 150 miles from the American coastline, while U.S. territorial airspace and waters start 12 miles from the coastline.
This illustrative image from 2014 shows a Russian Tupolev TU-142 in Severomorsk, Russia. Putin is visiting the Northern Fleet main naval base of Severomorsk. U.S. planes were deployed after one of the Russian aircraft flew… This illustrative image from 2014 shows a Russian Tupolev TU-142 in Severomorsk, Russia. Putin is visiting the Northern Fleet main naval base of Severomorsk. U.S. planes were deployed after one of the Russian aircraft flew near Alaska on September 13, 2024.
Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
NORAD said in a statement that the Russian aircraft stayed in international airspace and that their activity in the Alaska ADIZ “occurs regularly and is not seen as a threat.” Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.
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NORAD said it uses a layered defense network of satellites, ground-based and airborne radars and fighter aircraft to detect and track aircraft and as such “remains ready to employ a number of response options in defense of North America.”
However, it is the second such incident in two days with NORAD saying on Wednesday that it had “detected and tracked” Russian aircraft also operating in the Alaska ADIZ, although unlike on Friday, it did not specify what kind of planes they were.
Since the start of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, NORAD, which is made up of U.S. and Canadian forces, has intercepted Russian aircraft flying near Alaska numerous times amid heightened tensions between Moscow and NATO.
In February this year, the U.S. detected four Russian warplanes in the Alaska ADIZ. In July 2023, NORAD said that Russian aircraft had made at least four incursions into airspace close to Alaska since the beginning of that year.
There were two intercepts of Russian warplanes in the region in February 2023 while the same month a Chinese spy balloon was detected near Alaska before heading across the U.S. and being shot down off the coast of South Carolina.
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In July 2024, the Pentagon said Russian and Chinese bombers—two Russian Tu-95 and two Chinese H-6 military aircraft—were detected flying near Alaska, in what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin described as the first such joint operation in the region between the allies.
On Tuesday, Moscow said it had launched massive naval and air drills with China that will last until Monday and involves more than 400 naval vessels, at least 120 military aircraft and 90,000 troops.
The Russian defense ministry said that at least 15 countries have been invited to observe the maneuvers of the “Ocean-2024” drills.
Joshua Kindred is a nominee for U.S. District Court in Alaska. Image from Senate Judiciary Committee video.
Stories are posted on the statewide news page. Send news tips, questions, and comments to news@alaskapublic.org. Follow Alaska Public Media on Facebook and on Twitter @AKPublicNews. And subscribe to the Alaska News Nightly podcast.
Friday on Alaska News Nightly:
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Alaska’s U.S. Attorney is under scrutiny after a judge’s sexualized relationships with prosecutors. Plus, a massive graphite mine could open near Nome, if the permitting goes through. And, a summer science camp in Petersburg teaches students about the natural world.
Reports tonight from:
Casey Grove, Chris Klint and Rhonda McBride in Anchorage Yvonne Krumrey in Juneau Ben Townsend in Nome Olivia Schmidt in Petersburg Katherine Rose in Sitka
This episode of Alaska News Nightly is hosted by Casey Grove, with audio engineering from Chris Hyde and producing from Tim Rockey.
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Tim Rockey is the producer of Alaska News Nightly and covers education for Alaska Public Media. Reach him attrockey@alaskapublic.orgor 907-550-8487. Read more about Timhere.
FAIRBANKS, Alaska (KTVF) – The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) has awarded $177 million in federal grants for the Alaska Marine Highway System (AMHS).
In a press release, U.S. Senators Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan along with Representative Mary Sattler Peltola, announced the award on Friday stating that it was only made possible by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).
The IIJA plans to reinforce crucial ferry service operations within the state, as well as projects to improve effectiveness.
