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Arctic rivers face big changes with warming climate, permafrost thaw and accelerating water cycle • Alaska Beacon

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Arctic rivers face big changes with warming climate, permafrost thaw and accelerating water cycle • Alaska Beacon


As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world.

Rivers represent the land branch of the earth’s hydrological cycle. As rain and snow fall, rivers transport freshwater runoff along with dissolved organic and particulate materials, including carbon, to coastal areas. With the Arctic now warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, the region is seeing more precipitation and the permafrost is thawing, leading to stronger river flows.

Major river basins of the Arctic region are mapped.
(NOAA Arctic Report Card image)

We’re climate scientists who study how warming is influencing the water cycle and ecosystems. In a new study using historical data and sophisticated computer models of Earth’s climate and hydrology, we explored how climate change is altering Arctic rivers.

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We found that thawing permafrost and intensifying storms will change how water moves into and through Arctic rivers. These changes will affect coastal regions, the Arctic Ocean and, potentially, the North Atlantic, as well as the climate.

Thawing permafrost: Big changes in Arctic soils

Permafrost thaw is one of the most consequential changes that the Arctic is experiencing as temperatures rise.

Permafrost is soil that has been frozen for at least two years and often for millennia. It covers approximately 8.8 million square miles (about 22.8 million square kilometers) in Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, but that area is shrinking as the permafrost thaws.

Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.(Photo by Brandt Meixell/USGS)
Erosion reveals ice-rich permafrost near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska.
(Photo by Brandt Meixell/USGS)

Historically, most water going into Arctic rivers flows atop frozen permafrost soils in spring. Scientists call this “overland runoff.”

However, our results suggest that as warming continues, an increasing fraction of annual river flow will come from under the surface, through thawed soils in the degrading permafrost. As the overall flow increases with more precipitation, as much as 30% more of it could be moving underground by the end of this century as subsurface pathways expand.

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When water flows through soil, it picks up different chemicals and metals. As a result, water coming into rivers will likely have a different chemical character. For example, it may carry more nutrients and dissolved carbon that can affect coastal zones and the global climate. The fate of that mobilized carbon is an active area of study.

More carbon in river water could end up “outgassed” upon reaching placid coastal waters, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, which further drives climate warming. The thaw is also revealing other nasty surprises, such as the emergence of long-frozen viruses.

More rain and snow, more runoff

The Arctic’s water cycle is also ramping up as temperatures rise, meaning more precipitation, evaporation, plant transpiration and river discharge. This is primarily due to a warmer atmosphere’s inherent ability to hold more moisture. It’s the same reason that bigger snowstorms are occurring as the climate warms.

Our study found that the bulk of the additional precipitation will occur across far northern parts of the Arctic basin. As sea ice disappears in a warming climate, computer models agree that a more open Arctic Ocean will feed more water to the atmosphere, where it will be transported to adjacent land areas to fall as precipitation.

Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.(Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024, image)
Changes projected this century in annual rainfall and snowfall simulated by the computer model used in the study. Red areas represent increases.
(Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024, image)

More snow in northern Alaska, Siberia and Canada will lead to more water flowing in rivers, potentially up to 25% more under a high-warming scenario based on our research. There is more carbon in the soil in northern parts of the Arctic compared with the south. With permafrost thaw, those regions will also see more water coming into rivers from below the surface, where additional soil carbon can leach into the water and become dissolved organic carbon.

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More old carbon is already showing up in samples gathered from Arctic rivers, attributed to permafrost thaw. Carbon dating shows that some of this carbon has been frozen for thousands of years.

Impacts will cascade through Arctic ecosystems

So, what does the future hold?

One of the most notable changes expected involves the transport of fresh water and associated materials, such as dissolved organic carbon and heat energy, to Arctic coastal zones.

James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter. (Photo by Michael A. Rawlins)
James McClelland of the Beaufort Lagoon Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research program examines a water sample from a stream near Utqiagvik on Alaska’s North Slope. The brown tint is dissolved organic matter. (Photo by Michael A. Rawlins)

Coastal lagoons may become fresher. This change would affect organisms up and down the food chain, though our current understanding of the potential affects of changes in fresh water and dissolved organic carbon is still murky.

River water will also be warmer as the climate heats up and has the potential to melt coastal sea ice earlier in the season. Scientists observed this in spring 2023, when unusually warm water in Canada’s Mackenzie River carried heat to the Beaufort Sea, contributing to early coastal sea ice melting.

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Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early. (NASA Earth Observatory image)
Fresh water flowing from rivers such as Canada’s Mackenzie River, at the bottom center of the satellite image, into the Beaufort Sea can break up sea ice early. (NASA Earth Observatory image)

Finally, more river water reaching the coast has the potential to freshen the Arctic Ocean, particularly along northern Eurasia, where big Russian rivers export massive amounts of fresh water each year.

There are concerns that rising river flows in that region are influencing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the currents that circulate heat from the tropics, up along the U.S. East Coast and toward Europe. Evidence is mounting that these currents have been slowing in recent years as more fresh water enters the North Atlantic. If the circulation shuts down, it would significantly affect temperatures across North America and Europe.

At the coast, changing river flows will also affect the plants, animals and Indigenous populations that call the region home. For them and for the global climate, our study’s findings highlight the need to closely watch how the Arctic is being transformed and take steps to mitigate the effects.The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Alaska

Pilot dies in small plane crash southeast of Cordova

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Pilot dies in small plane crash southeast of Cordova


A pilot was killed in a plane crash in mountainous terrain near Cordova, Alaska State Troopers said Friday.

The agency was notified of the overdue Piper Pacer around 8 p.m. Thursday, troopers said in an online post. The pilot was believed to be the sole person on board the aircraft, which was thought to be flying between Yakutat and Fairbanks, troopers said.

Aircraft from the Alaska Air National Guard and Alaska Wildlife Troopers started searching for the plane, and a Guard helicopter crew found the overdue Piper Pacer around 4 p.m. Friday where it had crashed near Kanak Island, about 40 miles southeast of Cordova, troopers said.

The pilot, whom troopers did not identify, was found dead in the crashed plane, troopers said. His body was take to the State Medical Examiner Office in Anchorage for autopsy and positive identification, according to troopers.

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Troopers said the pilot’s next of kin and the National Transportation Safety Board were notified.





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It’s the Alaska Legislature’s last day in special session. Here’s the latest.

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It’s the Alaska Legislature’s last day in special session. Here’s the latest.


The Alaska Senate plans to vote today on a new draft of a bill that would reduce taxes on the Alaska LNG project. It’s the last day of a special session Gov. Mike Dunleavy called to consider the issue.

Dunleavy and pipeline developer Glenfarne, which owns a 75% stake in the project, say a measure replacing a 2% annual property tax with a much smaller tax on gas throughput is essential to allowing the project to attract investors and court lenders. Dunleavy and Glenfarne applauded the version of the bill that passed the House a week ago.

The Alaska LNG project, estimated by the developer to cost up to $54.5 billion, includes an 807-mile pipeline, a conditioning facility on the North Slope to remove gas impurities such as carbon dioxide, and a liquefaction plant on the shores of Cook Inlet to export the gas to Asia. The project would be split into two phases: first, a shorter in-state pipeline to provide gas to Alaskans, and then the much more expensive — and much more lucrative — export infrastructure.

The Senate’s new draft retains many of the House’s provisions with some important changes.

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Perhaps the most significant changes are to the project’s timeline: to be eligible for tax relief, the developer must commit to a final investment decision for the first phase by Jan. 1, 2028, and construction of the in-state pipeline would need to be complete by the end of 2032.

The House’s version required only that construction begin by Jan. 1, 2032.

The faster timeline is an effort to address Southcentral’s looming shortage of natural gas, said Sen. Bert Stedman, a Sitka Republican and a co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee. The Department of Natural Resources’ production forecast envisions demand outstripping Cook Inlet gas production by 2032, requiring producers to dip into storage.

“There’s been a lot of concern out of the Railbelt with the declining volume in Cook Inlet,” Stedman said.

But the more aggressive timeline sparked concerns from minority Republicans on the committee; it increases the risk on an already risky, marginal project, they said.

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“That’s very damaging,” said Sen. Mike Cronk, a Tok Republican and the Senate minority leader. “There’s so many factors that we don’t control.”

Putting a “hard construction date” in the bill may be a “poison pill,” Cronk said.

Glenfarne and Gov. Mike Dunleavy did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the new version of the bill.

Stedman suggested future legislatures could revise the date to account for “unforeseen black swan events.”

“We can change these and modify these going forward,” Stedman said. “This is not in the Constitution, so I think there’d be some consideration under good faith trying to get the project constructed.”

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The tax rate at the heart of the bill — the so-called alternative volumetric tax on gas flowing through the pipeline from the North Slope to Southcentral Alaska — would be fixed, rather than a weighted average tied to the cost of each component of the project.

The Senate draft sets the tax initially at 6.2 cents per 1,000 cubic feet of gas throughput, starting five years after gas begins to flow through the pipeline. The tax would take effect sooner if throughput reaches 500 million cubic feet per day, which is more than double what Southcentral Alaska uses now.

The tax would rise to 10.6 cents per 1,000 cubic feet once Phase 2 of the project, which includes the liquefied natural gas export facility, is up and running. The tax revenue from that mirrors what the Department of Revenue estimates the weighted tax that passed the House would yield.

The rates would rise between 1% and 3% each year, depending on inflation.

The House backed 30-plus years of tax breaks. Some senators were skeptical of that, so their version doubles the tax rate ten years after exports begin, then doubles them again in 2060.

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The new bill retains key conditions for the tax relief included in the House’s version: the developer must commit to building a spur line to Fairbanks and negotiate project labor agreements with unions. It also includes up to $80 million in community impact funding for municipalities: $40 million due shortly after the final investment decision for each project phase.

It also includes House-passed price controls on in-state gas. Utilities would pay no more than $16 per million British thermal units, adjusted for inflation. That’s roughly $16.60 per 1,000 cubic feet, substantially higher than current Southcentral gas rates — about $10 — but likely cheaper than imported gas, according to Southcentral’s gas utility.

Also notable is an omission from the bill. It does not include a measure that had been under discussion that would subject large so-called S corporations and other pass-through entities in the oil and gas business, like LLCs, to the state’s corporate income tax.

Glenfarne, in its only comments so far on the new bill, urged lawmakers not to include that tax in the final version.

“If the Senate passes a bill with the proposed S Corp tax, it will introduce major hurdles for Alaska LNG to secure the right financing to build the project,” the company said in a statement provided by spokesperson Tim Fitzpatrick.

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Senators are due to amend the bill and take a final vote later today.

The special session expires at midnight tonight, but Gov. Mike Dunleavy has already signed a proclamation calling another special session to begin Saturday.

Asked whether the new special session represented a contingency plan in an event the bill failed to pass, Dunleavy spokesperson Jeff Turner declined to say.

“We will see what happens,” Turner said.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

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8 Prettiest Downtown Strips In Alaska

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8 Prettiest Downtown Strips In Alaska


Alaska’s eight prettiest downtown strips sit in towns as different from each other as the landscapes around them. Skagway draws cruise ship visitors to its Gold Rush history. Sitka pairs Russian Orthodox history with totem-lined trails just beyond downtown. Wrangell is one of the oldest towns in the state. Each downtown is worth spending time in, though Sitka, Ketchikan, and Wrangell are the only ones on this list accessible solely by air or water. In winter, clear dark nights can bring Northern Lights over several of these towns. After a day out, fresh seafood is never far away.

Skagway

Colorful storefronts line the street in downtown Skagway, Alaska. Image credit: lembi via Shutterstock.

Skagway is located in Alaska’s panhandle and is known as the gateway to the Klondike Gold Rush and a major cruise ship destination. For those who love nature and history, visit Klondike Gold Rush National Historical Park and hike part of the 33-mile Chilkoot Trail, the historic route between Dyea, Alaska, and Lake Bennett, British Columbia. Backpackers can stay at designated campsites along the route, with permits required in season. For food, check out Skagway Brewing Company, which offers craft beers and American comfort foods. Another seasonal Skagway option is Salty Siren, whose menu features Alaskan golden king crab, seafood chowder, fish and chips, and pulled-pork sandwiches.

Sitka

Downtown street in Sitka, Alaska. Image credit: Jeff Whyte via Shutterstock.
Downtown street in Sitka, Alaska. Image credit: Jeff Whyte via Shutterstock.

Sitka sits on Baranof Island and is known for its rich Tlingit and Russian heritage, gorgeous outdoor scenery, and variety of wildlife. Sitka is only accessible by sea or air and is a popular stop on cruises. The area offers lots of outdoor activities, including fishing, hiking, and kayaking. Tourists like to visit St. Michael’s Russian Orthodox Cathedral, a National Historic Landmark whose original 1844-1848 building was reconstructed after a 1966 fire. For a short walk through Sitka’s layered history, visit Sitka National Historical Park, where visitors can enjoy a scenic coastal trail lined with totem poles. Grab a bite to eat at Beak Restaurant for delicious seafood. Or if you’re craving pizza or wings, visit Mean Queen for some comfort food.

Talkeetna

The charming downtown area of Talkeetna, Alaska.
The charming downtown area of Talkeetna, Alaska.

Talkeetna is a historic place in Alaska’s Matanuska-Susitna Borough, famous as a gateway to Denali, North America’s highest peak, which welcomes tourists and climbers from all over the world. Beginning as an Alaska Railroad headquarters, this historic location has an artistic vibe and a vibrant art scene despite its small population. Locals and visitors enjoy flightseeing, rafting, fishing, and delving into the unique history, including Stubbs, the late honorary cat mayor who held the ceremonial role until his death in 2017. For those hoping to see the Northern Lights, Talkeetna’s dark winter skies can be a good base when skies are clear and aurora activity is strong. Once you’re hungry, grab some friends and visit Homestead Kitchen for some traditional rustic options like burgers and flatbreads. Then grab a craft beer at Denali Brewpub in their rustic setting.

Homer

The harbor in Homer, Alaska. Image credit: Charles Knowles via Shutterstock.
The harbor in Homer, Alaska. Image credit: Charles Knowles via Shutterstock.

Found on the Kenai Peninsula, Homer is famous for its gorgeous views of Kachemak Bay, the Homer Spit, and distant volcanoes. Here’s a perfect spot for those hoping to see wildlife and enjoy other outdoor activities, like hiking and fishing. Across the bay, Kachemak Bay State Park is reached by water taxi or air taxi and offers views of the mountains and the ocean. Or head to Bishop’s Beach, which is dog-friendly, and enjoy the soft sand with your four-legged best friend. After experiencing the beautiful scenery of Homer, grab some dinner at the Twisted Goat and dig into some comfort food, including pizza, fish and chips, and burgers. On a nice day, visitors won’t want to miss a local favorite, Water Rudders, which offers a beautiful view from its patio.

Seward

Seward Harbor in Resurrection Bay in Seward, Alaska. Image credit: Raisa Nastukova via Shutterstock.
Seward Harbor in Resurrection Bay in Seward, Alaska. Image credit: Raisa Nastukova via Shutterstock.

Located about 120 miles south of Anchorage, Seward is a scenic port town at the head of Resurrection Bay. It’s loved for its beautiful views of the mountains, marine wildlife, and glaciers, and it serves as a gateway to Kenai Fjords National Park. Here, visitors can take a hike, join in on ranger-guided tours, kayak, and so much more. For those wanting an aerial view, Seward Helicopter Tours offers flights over glaciers and other beautiful sites. For those looking to camp, Waterfront Park offers RV and tent sites with views you can’t beat. After enjoying sightseeing, grab some seafood or steak at Ray’s Waterfront with a wood-paneled dining room overlooking the marina and mountains. Or get some comfort food at The Highliner Restaurant, where the menu includes crab cakes and fish tacos, just to name a few.

Ketchikan

Ketchikan, Alaska. Image credit: Darryl Brooks via Shutterstock.
Ketchikan, Alaska. Image credit: Darryl Brooks via Shutterstock.

Ketchikan is located on Revillagigedo Island in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, known for its rich native culture, totem poles, and salmon fishing. The town is a popular cruise ship destination and is only accessible by boat or plane. Here, visitors can enjoy wildlife viewing, especially in the summer months. For a beautiful site, look into Misty Fjords National Monument and see sheer granite cliffs, towering 3,000-foot rock walls, deep saltwater fjords, and waterfalls within Tongass National Forest. Locals and visitors enjoy spending time at Creek Street, a historic boardwalk built on pilings over the creek, which is now filled with shops, cafes, and galleries. Grab a bite to eat at The Alaska Fish House with beautiful views out the window and live music. Or order crab and seafood at Ketchikan Crab & Go, a seasonal spot at Salmon Landing that caters to the cruise-season crowd.

Valdez

Valdez boat harbor in Valdez, Alaska.
Valdez boat harbor in Valdez, Alaska.

Found in Southcentral Alaska, Valdez is known for its stunning mountain views, water scenery, and being the southern terminus of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. This former Gold Rush town is a popular destination for fishing, glacier tours, and wildlife viewing, and is accessible via the Richardson Highway from Anchorage and Fairbanks. For shore views of icebergs and the face of Valdez Glacier, head to Glacier View Park at the end of Airport Road. For an easy family-friendly outing near town, try Dock Point Trail, a short coastal loop with ocean and Duck Flats views. In summer, The Potato serves handmade comfort food and beer or wine from its harbor-view location in Valdez. Or get some pizza or fish and chips at The Fat Mermaid. It has a laid-back setting and views of the marina.

Wrangell

The gorgeous landscape of Wrangell, Alaska.
The gorgeous landscape of Wrangell, Alaska.

Wrangell is found in Southeast Alaska, located on Wrangell Island in the Inside Passage, and is known for its Tlingit culture, variety of wildlife, and access to the Stikine River. This is one of Alaska’s oldest towns and offers plenty of outdoor activities like hiking, glacier exploration, and fishing, and is only accessible by air or the Alaska Marine Highway. Anan Wildlife Observatory is a must-visit to see bears, both black and brown, who call it home. You’ll have to take a boat or a floatplane to get there. Access the Stikine River from Wrangell for more wildlife viewing. For food, try Filipino, Thai, sushi, and other Asian dishes at Michelle’s Taste of Asia, a casual, family-run restaurant. Or grab pizza at Hungry Beaver Pizza and Marine Bar by Wrangell’s Inner Harbor.

These eight towns show a side of Alaska that operates at a different pace from the state’s most visited destinations. The downtowns are small, the history runs deep, and the wildlife has a way of showing up whether you plan for it or not.

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