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Alaska projected to see a lower population by 2050

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Alaska projected to see a lower population by 2050


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – New data suggests that Alaska will see a decreasing population over the next three decades or so.

The Department of Labor and Workforce Development released its Alaska Populations Projects report on Wednesday, which states, “Alaska will likely grow for the first 10 years but as the population ages, annual natural growth will slow, leading to projected losses through migration.”

These findings are based on state demographics, using past and current population trends, including looking at the net migration, along with birth and death rates.

“We say, ‘What would happen if we continue to see those trends going out 30 years?” David Howell, a state demographer for the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, said. “So it’s just kind of a picture of what it would look like if we see similar population change over the next 30 years that we’ve seen the last 30 years.”

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By 2050, the report states that Alaska is projected to have a population of 722,806. It amounts to roughly 14,000 fewer people than the state recorded in 2023, about a 2% drop.

The state is expecting to see an increase to the Alaska Native population, raising the demographic from 22% to 25% of the state’s overall population by 2025.

However, the drop in overall population is the first time during a set of projections in this time frame that a loss in Alaska’s state population was projected, Howell said.

“Our net migration losses are not made up for by what we refer to as natural increase, which is just births minus deaths,” Howell explained.

The data collected from the report, the department said, can help the state plan for the future. It can give Alaskans a better idea about how many residents will be driving on the roads, students in schools, and senior care needs.

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That is especially important in this report, Howell said, where the data sees a trend of an increasing senior demographic.

“We need to get … those medical pieces in place for that population because we haven’t historically had a large senior population,” Howell said. “That will be a different level of medical care than they’ve needed in the past.”

At the same time, the state is seeing a lower birth rate, causing the population to lean older. That, combined with a negative net migration over the years, has caused a decrease in the working-age population.

“We need everyone. We need more people,” Gov. Mike Dunleavy said in his 2024 State of the State address earlier this year. “There’s no question about it, and encouraging pro-life policies that lead to more people having families and kids shouldn’t be controversial … Whether you’re a student of history or just a casual observer, we can’t have the kind of economic activity, growth, and technological advancements that have built civilization over thousands of years without an increasing population.”

“It is, of course, concerning that we are projecting a lower population for the future,” Adam Weinert, the special assistant for the state’s commissioner, said.

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Weinert said that the Department of Labor and Workforce Development has been focusing on trying to engage with the youth population and encourage Alaskan residents to stay in the state.

“Engaging with our veterans, engaging with those who are new to the state is going to help us try to turn this population — to turn the population trend around,” Weinert said.

Ongoing efforts from the Department of Labor and Workforce Development include re-establishing the Office of Citizenship Assistance, creating partnerships with the Department of Defense, and creating career guides to work with youth.



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Alaska

Over $150K worth of drugs seized from man in Juneau, police say

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Over 0K worth of drugs seized from man in Juneau, police say


JUNEAU, Alaska (KTUU) – An Alaska drug task force seized roughly $162,000 worth of controlled substances during an operation in Juneau Thursday, according to the Juneau Police Department.

Around 3 p.m. Thursday, investigators with the Southeast Alaska Cities Against Drugs (SEACAD) approached 50-year-old Juneau resident Jermiah Pond in the Nugget Mall parking lot while he was sitting in his car, according to JPD.

A probation search of the car revealed a container holding about 7.3 gross grams of a substance that tested presumptively positive for methamphetamine, as well as about 1.21 gross grams of a substance that tested presumptively positive for fentanyl.

As part of the investigation, investigators executed a search warrant at Pond’s residence, during which they found about 46.63 gross grams of ketamine, 293.56 gross grams of fentanyl, 25.84 gross grams of methamphetamine and 25.5 gross grams of MDMA.

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In all, it amounted to just less than a pound of drugs worth $162,500.

Investigators also seized $102,640 in cash and multiple recreational vehicles believed to be associated with the investigation.

Pond was lodged on charges of second-degree misconduct involving a controlled substance, two counts of third-degree misconduct involving a controlled substance, five counts of fourth-degree misconduct involving a substance and an outstanding felony probation warrant.

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com

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Sand Point teen found 3 days after going missing in lake

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Sand Point teen found 3 days after going missing in lake


SAND POINT, Alaska (KTUU) – A teenage boy who was last seen Monday when the canoe he was in tipped over has been found by a dive team in a lake near Sand Point, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Alaska’s News Source confirmed with the person, who is close to the search efforts, that the dive team found 15-year-old Kaipo Kaminanga deceased Thursday in Red Cove Lake, located a short drive from the town of Sand Point on the Aleutian Island chain.

Kaminanga was last seen canoeing with three other friends on Monday when the boat tipped over.

A search and rescue operation ensued shortly after.

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Alaska Dive Search Rescue and Recovery Team posted on Facebook Thursday night that they were able to “locate and recover” Kaminanga at around 5 p.m. Thursday.

“We are glad we could bring closure to his family, friends and community,” the post said.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated when more details become available.

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com

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Opinion: Homework for Alaska: Sales tax or income tax?

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Opinion: Homework for Alaska: Sales tax or income tax?


iStock / Getty Images

This is a tax tutorial for gubernatorial candidates, for legislators who will report to work next year and for the Alaska public.

Think of it as homework, with more than eight months to complete the assignment that is not due until the November election. The homework is intended to inform, not settle the debate over a state sales tax or state income tax — or neither, which is the preferred option for many Alaskans.

But for those Alaskans willing to consider a tax as a personal responsibility to help fund schools, roads, public safety, child care, state troopers, prisons, foster care and everything else necessary for healthy and productive lives, someday they will need to decide on a state income tax or a state sales tax after they accept the checkbook reality that oil and Permanent Fund earnings are not enough.

This homework assignment is intended to get people thinking with facts, not emotions. Electing the right candidates will be the first test.

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Alaskans have until the next election because nothing will change this year. It will take a new political alignment led by a reality-based governor to organize support in the Legislature and among the public.

But next year, maybe, with the right elected leadership, Alaskans can debate a state sales tax or personal income tax. Plus, of course, corporate taxes and oil production taxes, but those are for another school day.

One of the biggest arguments in favor of a state sales tax is that visitors would pay it. Yes, they would, but not as much as many Alaskans think.

Air travel is exempt from sales taxes. So are cruise ship tickets. That’s federal law, which means much of what tourists spend on their Alaska vacation is beyond the reach of a state sales tax.

Cutting further into potential revenues, state and federal law exempts flightseeing tours from sales tax, which is a particularly costly exemption when you think about how much visitors spend on airplane and helicopter tours.

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That leaves sales tax supporters collecting from tourists on T-shirts, gifts for grandchildren, artwork, postcards, hotels, Airbnb, car rentals and restaurant meals. Still a substantial take for taxes, but far short of total tourism spending.

An argument against a state sales tax is that more than 100 cities and boroughs already depend on local sales taxes to pay for schools and other public services. Try to imagine what a state tax piled on top of a local tax would do to kill shopping in Homer, already at 7.85%, or Kodiak, Wrangell and Cordova, all at 7%, and all the other municipalities.

Supporters of an income tax say it would share the responsibility burden with nonresidents who earn income in Alaska and then return home to spend their money.

Almost one in four workers in Alaska in 2024 were nonresidents, as reported by the state Department of Labor in January. That doesn’t include federal employees, active-duty military or self-employed people.

Nonresidents earned roughly $3.8 billion, or about 17% of every dollar covered in the report.

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However, many of those nonresident workers are lower-wage and seasonal, employed in the seafood processing and tourism industries, unlikely to pay much in income taxes. But a tax could be structured so that they pay something, which is fair.

Meanwhile, higher-wage workers in oil and gas, mining, construction and airlines (freight and passenger service) would pay taxes on their income earned in Alaska, which also is fair.

It comes down to what would direct more of the tax burden to nonresidents: a tax on income or on visitor spending. Wages or wasabi-crusted salmon dinners.

Larry Persily is a longtime Alaska journalist, with breaks for federal, state and municipal public policy work in Alaska and Washington, D.C. He lives in Anchorage and is publisher of the Wrangell Sentinel weekly newspaper.

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