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WNBA playoff projections: Will Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever make the cut?

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WNBA playoff projections: Will Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever make the cut?

The WNBA is already full speed ahead into the second half of the season, and it is going to be a sprint to the finish. Regular-season action ends in exactly one month, with each team packing 12-14 games in the final stretch.

As players re-acclimate to following the Olympic break and make one last push for the postseason, here is a look at which teams I project will make the playoffs as well as a to-do list for each team to focus on to be in the best possible position come playoff time.


Playoff-bound

1. New York Liberty

Stay the course

The Liberty remind me of the Aces at this point last season. New York is the best team in the league, and a couple of bad games or a bad week won’t change that, just as an August swoon for Las Vegas didn’t prevent the Aces from repeating as champs. It will be interesting to see if the Liberty choose to chase the single-season wins record of 34, set by the Aces last year. New York can also tie the best winning percentage of all-time — the Houston Comets won 90 percent of their games in 1998 — by winning out, but that might be a Pyrrhic victory if the Liberty tire themselves out and don’t cap off the season with a ring. Just ask the 2016 Golden State Warriors.

2. Minnesota Lynx

Inject a little variety

The Lynx are loaded with jump shooters, but they don’t put a ton of pressure on the rim, as they’re last in points in the paint and free-throw rate. That makes them too reliant on the 3-point shot for a long series, even when they have four rotation players (Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Bridget Carleton and Cecilia Zandalasini) shooting better than 40 percent from the field. When they shoot below 35.5 percent from 3-point range (league average is 33.8), they’re 5-5. Once defenses lock in on taking away the 3-point line — the Liberty, in particular, seem well-suited to switch everything against them — it’s unclear how the Lynx will generate consistent offense.

3. Connecticut Sun

Diversify the offensive attack

The Sun are essentially the inverse of the Lynx in terms of their offensive profile. They know what they have in the big three of Alyssa Thomas, Bri Jones and DeWanna Bonner. But that trio hasn’t been able to get Connecticut over the hump in the postseason, so the rest of this regular season should serve as reconnaissance for the Sun — they need to figure out which perimeter player, or which perimeter actions, can take over when defenses home in on the frontcourt. Connecticut has leaned into two-player actions with the newly-acquired Marina Mabrey and Thomas, but against the Atlanta Dream defense, which sinks into the paint, the Sun’s spacing still wasn’t good enough. Connecticut needs to create more options in the half court, including increasing its 3-point attempt rate. Currently, 21.2 percent of the Sun’s points come from beyond the arc, which isn’t enough against high-powered offensive teams like the Aces and the Liberty.

4. Las Vegas Aces

Give the stars some rest

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The Aces have the bones of the team that won last year’s title, but they haven’t been able to put together that formula consistently. It’s hard to believe that team isn’t still there, especially after watching A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young have such strong showings at the Paris Olympics. The problem is that the Aces have a big hill to climb in the standings, and their players have endured heavy minutes this year, not to mention the extra burden of multiple investigations into the organization. They may not have the gas to make it through an entire playoff run if they maintain the same minutes load. As a result, even though it’s anathema to their stars, as Becky Hammon indicated on The Athletic’s “Women’s Basketball Show” earlier this year, they’ll likely have to participate in some measure of load management. Young already looks worn down after returning from Paris, and she’s arguably Las Vegas’ second-most important player. Even if it hurts them in the standings, the Aces have to take the long view.

5. Seattle Storm

Get Jewell Loyd out of her slump

The Storm’s 3-point shooting has been atrocious in 2024, with a league-worst 29.3 percent from long range. Seattle isn’t exactly bursting with snipers, but when the player who is taking more than a quarter of the team’s 3-point attempts is shooting 26 percent from distance, that’s a problem. The theory was that Jewell Loyd’s shooting percentages would improve with a lighter offensive load given the arrival of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, but that hasn’t been the case. Nothing looks wrong with Loyd’s form, and she’s still making more than 87 percent of her free throws, so it seems like a matter of time until the worm turns, but the Storm’s offense can’t survive without Loyd becoming more efficient.

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6. Indiana Fever

Be more disciplined defensively

The Fever have several defensive concerns, as is to be expected for a team that is second-to-last in defensive rating. Many of those problems have been mitigated by their rip-roaring offense in recent games, but the main issue is how often they send opposing teams to the foul line. It would be easier to forgive opponents’ high free-throw rate if Indiana forced a lot of turnovers — those free throws would simply be a casualty of Indiana’s aggression. However, the Fever rank last in opponent turnover percentage and 11th in defensive free-throw rate. They can afford to be less handsy because they’re not taking the ball anyway; furthermore, per PBP stats, they score 6.7 more points per 100 possessions off of made field goals than made free throws.

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Why Caitlin Clark’s Olympics omission might be blessing in disguise for her rookie season

7. Phoenix Mercury

Rebound

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Some teams prioritize the defensive glass, others the offensive glass. With the Mercury, corralling boards is a struggle on both ends. They rank 11th in both offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. Some of this is structural, as Phoenix generally plays a bevy of wings and only one true frontcourt player, whether that’s Brittney Griner or Natasha Mack. The Mercury have gotten even smaller with the injury to Rebecca Allen, which has further compromised their possession disadvantage — the opposing team took 14 more field-goal attempts in each of their first two games of the second half. The roster won’t change meaningfully from now until the end of the season; at this point, Phoenix has to commit to boxing out better.

8. Atlanta Dream

Play more optimal lineup combinations

The Dream had a relatively disastrous first half, especially since they gave up control of their 2025 first-round pick in the Allisha Gray trade — that deal was the right move for Atlanta in the long run, but it does negate the value of tanking ahead of what could be a game-changing draft. That’s why the Dream have to maximize their present and make a run at the playoffs despite losing eight straight heading into the Olympic break.

Fortunately for the Dream, Atlanta is finally healthy enough to maximize its roster. Even after winning two in a row, the Dream sit last in the league in offensive rating at 94.8 points per 100 possessions, which would be the worst mark in the WNBA since 2021. The five players who have a positive on-off differential on offense are Gray, Tina Charles, Naz Hillmon, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, but they were never available at the same time during the first half. They are now, and Tanisha Wright has started that group in the last two contests, leading to two big wins over Seattle and Connecticut. That’s a unit that complements each other’s skill sets with rim pressure, shooting and perimeter and interior defense, and Atlanta needs to maximize their minutes going forward.


Chasing the post-season

9. Chicago Sky

Unleash Dana Evans

The Sky have five players under contract next season, two of whom figure to be part of the future core in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. Dana Evans will be a restricted free agent, so Chicago can keep her around on a long-term contract if she shows compatibility with the frontcourt duo. Thus far, Lindsay Allen and Chennedy Carter have been far better perimeter complements, but this is Evans’ chance to make her case to stick around. Even if it doesn’t go well, losing isn’t the worst-case scenario for the Sky, which could still land in the lottery if they and the Wings both miss the playoffs.

10. Dallas Wings

Clean up turnovers

At some point, we’ll stop talking about the hole at Dallas’ point guard position. Today is not that day. The Wings had their first-choice starting five available against Connecticut to kick off the second half of the season, and all that led to was 21 turnovers, even worse than their league-leading mark of 16.6 per game. Sevgi Uzun hasn’t been the answer at point guard; 19.4 percent of her possessions result in a turnover, which ranks 135th among all WNBA players. Last year’s three-headed point guard attack of Crystal Dangerfield, Veronica Burton and Odyssey Sims is all on other teams, leaving Uzun and rookie Jacy Sheldon (who really isn’t a natural lead guard) to handle those duties, and struggles have been clear.

In fairness to those rookies, post-ups naturally lead to more turnovers, and Dallas (arguably the biggest team in the league) ranks second in post-ups per game. Nevertheless, many of the Wings’ errors are unforced, potentially a result of their mishmash of players not being on the same page. Perhaps better health will lead to more cohesion because Dallas needs to take care of its possessions to get back into the playoff picture.

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11. Los Angeles Sparks

Turn the Paige

Unfortunately for long-suffering Sparks fans who have witnessed their team make three consecutive trips to the lottery, a fourth is in the best long-term interest of the franchise, especially after rookie Cameron Brink tore her ACL in June. L.A. doesn’t have the talent to compete in the playoffs, and it doesn’t make sense to chase the eighth seed for a two-game sweep, especially when the Sparks control their first-round pick this year but not in 2026. Ideally, L.A. features its young players as much as possible and sees what Rickea Jackson, Rae Burrell, Zia Cooke and Li Yueru are capable of before the 2025 offseason, when the Sparks will have to build a roster that can contend. Falling to the bottom of the standings (L.A. is currently two games “ahead” of Washington for the worst record over two years) will enable the Sparks to have the best possible lottery odds for the Paige Bueckers draft. She’s the perfect perimeter complement to their rookie frontcourt of Brink and Jackson.

go-deeper

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Paige Bueckers aims to make this her final season at UConn … and to go out with a bang

12. Washington Mystics

Re-establish Shakira Austin

After an all-rookie campaign in 2022 that culminated in a spot on the Team USA FIBA World Cup roster, Austin hasn’t been healthy enough to recreate that level of play for consistent stretches. Now that she’s back for the Mystics, this is their chance to reacclimate Austin to WNBA play while seeing how she fits next to Aaliyah Edwards. Washington will likely have at least one, if not two, lottery picks in the upcoming draft, and the front office needs to figure out if the franchise needs another frontcourt piece, or if Austin and Edwards can be the fulcrums going forward. The good news for the Mystics is that they have competent guard play in Julie Vanloo and Brittney Sykes, so they can adequately evaluate their frontcourt in that context.

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(Photo of  Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)

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Dispatch audio reveals what was heard inside Josh Jacobs’ home before alleged domestic violence arrest

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Dispatch audio reveals what was heard inside Josh Jacobs’ home before alleged domestic violence arrest

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Released dispatch audio has added some context to the alleged domestic violence incident involving Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs, one of which came from inside his Wisconsin residence.

The audio, obtained by TMJ 4, reveals a dispatcher speaking with a police officer about the “yelling and screaming” she could hear on an open line within Jacobs’ home.

“Things being thrown, open line,” the dispatcher tells the officer. “…Possibly a male and female.”

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Josh Jacobs of the Green Bay Packers jogs off the field after a 26-34 loss to the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo., on Dec. 14, 2025. (Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Then, a second call’s audio was added, as a dispatcher describes a neighbor calling about what they can hear from Jacobs’ home.

“The neighbor is calling now, saying that her neighbor was assaulted,” dispatch called out.

BROWNS ROOKIE QUINSHON JUDKINS ARRESTED IN FLORIDA FOR ALLEGED DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

When authorities arrived at Jacobs’ residence, he wasn’t there. He left the scene in his Mercedes G-Wagon, though police tracked his license plate readers. A call went out to stop the vehicle if it was seen on the road.

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Jacobs was arrested on Tuesday following an investigation by the Hobart-Lawrence Police Department, and he was booked on five domestic abuse-related charges.

The department said in the statement that Jacobs was booked into Brown County Jail on charges of domestic abuse battery, domestic abuse criminal damage to property, domestic abuse disorderly conduct, strangulation and suffocation, and intimidation of a victim. According to Brown County Jail records, strangulation and suffocation is a felony, while the other four are misdemeanors.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs runs the ball and stiff arms Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trikweze Bridges during the second half of an NFL game in Arlington, Texas, on Sept. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Jessica Tobias)

The investigation remains active and ongoing, the statement added.

Jacobs’ attorneys, David Z. Chesnoff and Clarence Duchac, say the 28-year-old denies all charges.

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“Josh vehemently denies the allegations, and this matter is in the early stages of investigation with important evidence that has not yet been made public,” the attorneys’ statement read.

“We ask for fairness and restraint while the judicial process takes its course.”

The NFL was made aware of the situation and has contacted the Packers. Green Bay also told The Athletic that it wouldn’t make comment due to the ongoing investigation on the matter.

Josh Jacobs of the Green Bay Packers stands for the National Anthem before an NFL wild card playoff game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill., on Jan. 10, 2026. (Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

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Jacobs finished his second season with the Packers, tallying 929 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on 1,234 carries in 2025. In 2024, he racked up 1,329 yards on 301 attempts with 15 touchdowns to lead the way for the Packers’ ground game in his inaugural season up north.

Jacobs, who spent five seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders prior to his time in Green Bay, has led the league in the past with rushing yards. His 2022 campaign saw 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns across a full 17-game slate.

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Alyssa and Gisele Thompson joined NWSL in high school. Their younger sister might be better

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Alyssa and Gisele Thompson joined NWSL in high school. Their younger sister might be better

Few players are driven to club soccer practice by a national team player. But then few players have two sisters who play for the U.S. women’s team.

Also Zoe Thompson is just 14, so you can’t expect her to drive herself.

But here’s the thing that truly sets Zoe Thompson apart. Although eldest sister Alyssa, 21, has already played in a World Cup and middle sister Gisele made 38 NWSL appearances and played four times for the national team before her 20th birthday, Zoe may actually be the best of the three.

“She’s better technically,” said her father Mario Thompson, who coached all three.

“I think she’s the combination between Alyssa and Gisele,” said Carlos Marroquin, owner of the pre-professional women’s team that gave Alyssa and Gisele their start.

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So maybe there should be a line of coaches, teammates and family members waiting to drive her to practice or to her debut with Marroquin’s team, the Santa Clarita Blue Heat, on Saturday evening at The Master’s University.

The Santa Clarita Blue Heat coach Leonardo Neveleff, center, talks to his team before a practice at Valencia High. Zoe Thompson makes her debut with the team Saturday.

The team, which competes in USL W league, has long been a summer proving ground for elite college players and aspiring pros with alumni that includes Venezuela’s Deyna Castellanos, once a finalist for FIFA’s world player of the year award; World Cup veterans Savannah DeMelo and Ashley Sanchez; former Chelsea and Atlético Madrid star Ana Borges of Portugal; and Natalia Kuikka, a five-time Finnish player of the year.

This year’s roster includes more than two dozen Division I college players, meaning Zoe Thompson will be playing with and against women much older than her.

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Did we mention she’s still in middle school?

“She’s always having to get out of her comfort zone, no matter what,” said Mario Thompson, whose job as Zoe’s father is to both nurture and protect his daughter’s talent.

Zoe has followed a different path than her sisters. Alyssa and Gisele were born less than 13 months apart and grew up playing together, practicing together and pushing each other. Zoe, born seven years later, grew up watching them, imitating them and wanting to be them.

But she had to do the work alone.

“It’s a unique dynamic where Alyssa and Gisele had each other,” their father said. “It wasn’t just Alyssa by herself. She always had a partner.”

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Zoe, however, observed a lot by watching.

“I feel like their mistakes helped me,” she said. “But at the same time, there are some mistakes that I’ve made that they haven’t. I’m learning differently, but I’m more learning from them.”

Zoe Thompson hugs her father Mario Thompson after practice.

Zoe Thompson hugs her father Mario Thompson after practice at Valencia High.

Still, this is uncharted territory. No family has ever had a trio of siblings play for the women’s national team, and the pressure of having to match the success her sisters have had will be inescapable, if unfair, for Zoe.

It’s a level of pressure that has the potential to be crushing.

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“She kind of has this expectation that’s put upon her already that ‘oh, she’s going to be like her sister,’” Gisele said. “But it’s her own life.”

And Mario Thompson, an elementary school principal who has been intimately involved in all his daughters’ careers, is having to negotiate all this on the fly.

“Everyone sees the glam and the glitz of Alyssa and Giselle, but people don’t really understand it’s a lot of pressure,” he said of the sisters, who will both be heading to Brazil with the national team next week. “They see all the great stuff, but it’s also their job.”

Mario Thompson faced some of the same issues with Alyssa, the second-youngest U.S. woman to play in a World Cup, so he limited her media interviews and tried to let her be a teenager — albeit it an exceptionally talented one. Zoe faces the additional burden of having do all that while following in her sisters’ footsteps.

“I’m very mindful and aware of that,” he said. “She’s already in the spotlight without having to be in the spotlight. It’s that pressure. I want her to love the sport, love this journey. That’s kind of how I raised all three of them.”

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Zoe Thompson during a practice session in preparation for her debut with the Santa Clarita Blue Heat.

Zoe Thompson during a practice session in preparation for her debut with the Santa Clarita Blue Heat soccer team.

For her part Zoe, mature well beyond her tender age, dismisses the hype with a shrug.

“There are going to be comparisons,” she said. “But we’re such different people that I think it’s unfair. At the same time, they can have those comparisons, they can have those opinions, but I’m not them. So it’s not going to be any different, how I play.”

Plus, having two accomplished sisters has its advantages. In the spring Zoe trained with the youth teams at Chelsea, where Alyssa now plays, and this summer she says she’ll train with Angel City, Gisele’s team. But the drawback of being a (much) younger sister is Alyssa and Gisele had each other to lean on growing up. Zoe has had to go it alone and that, she said, has made her stronger.

“Mentally, it is harder. But seeing my sisters and where they are, it’s kind of a motivation for me,” said Zoe, who has already been called in three times by the U-14 national team. “They were kind of at the same place I am. And it’s just very motivating to see them where they are. That’s just kind of where I want to be.”

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If there’s been one constant in the girls’ soccer careers it’s been their dad, who has been intimately involved in with all three, drilling them in the backyard of their Studio City home or walking them down the street to a park, where they shared the lumpy grass with softball players and unleashed dogs.

They were often, but not always, willing participants since the family didn’t have a TV when the girls were growing up.

Zoe Thompson drives the ball past a teammate during a training session.

Zoe Thompson controls the ball during a training session in preparation for her debut with the Santa Clarita Blue Heat soccer team.

And while the hours and hours of practice certainly honed the sisters’ skills, their parents can’t explain where the girls got their immense physical gifts. Mario played football and basketball and ran track at Occidental College with modest success while his wife, Karen, an occupational therapist, played basketball and ran cross-country in high school, hardly the pedigree that could be expected to produce three world-class soccer players.

Perhaps part of the answer lies in their unique DNA, a mix of Mario’s Black and Filipino background and Karen’s Italian and Peruvian roots.

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“It was never the plan, ‘Hey, let’s have some soccer players’,” Mario said.

But once the sisters decided that was their plan, the parents had to adjust. The girls had rare talent, Mario Thompson quickly realized, and it had to be developed. So Alyssa and Gisele began playing with an elite boys’ team while they were still in high school and passed up scholarships to Stanford to sign lucrative contracts with Angel City while their were teenagers.

Zoe has chosen another way, playing with Tudela FC, an all-girls team that practices near her home, and with the Blue Heat, where she’ll be facing stronger, more mature players for the first time. Mario Thompson hopes those aren’t the only differences, although he said the road his youngest daughter takes will ultimately be up to her.

“My hope is she goes through college and just goes a different pathway, different journey,” Mario Thompson said. “It’s a roller-coaster ride and so for [Zoe], I think she sees that roller-coaster ride and I don’t know if it’s a rush to let me get to that. She wants to eventually be a pro, but I don’t think it’s ‘I need to get there as soon as possible.’”

“It’s Zoe, what do you want?” he added. “It’s not like you have to be here, you have to do this. It’s none of that. It’s about, ‘Hey, Zoe, this is your journey.’ We want you to enjoy it, have fun with it, be happy with it.”

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She appears to be accomplishing all three of those goals. She’s also both confident and comfortable in her abilities and believes she’s already ahead of both her sisters despite the weight of expectation.

Zoe Thompson with head coach Leonardo Neveleff at the conclusion of a training session.

Zoe Thompson with head coach Leonardo Neveleff at the conclusion of a training session in preparation for her debut with the Santa Clarita Blue Heat soccer team. Thompson, 14, is the younger sister of U.S. women’s soccer players Gisele and Alyssa Thompson.

But she’s also well aware of the pitfalls ahead, having seen Alyssa and Gisele occasionally stumble into them.

“Yeah, it is a lot of pressure but I feel like we just had different paths,” she said. “They didn’t really know they were going to do soccer. They didn’t know that was their sport. But I feel like that path was set for me.

“It was just like I grew faster. I kind of took the understanding of what they were doing, and then I did it a little faster.”

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There are other differences as well. Gisele is a defender and Alyssa a forward, but Zoe plays in the midfield. And while it was sometimes difficult to get anything more than a giggle from Alyssa in an interview even after she turned pro, Zoe already gives complete, thoughtful answers to most questions.

Zoe’s game is also different; while Alyssa and Gisele are both exceptionally fast, Zoe relies more on her skill.

“Zoe’s more technical than her sisters at this stage,” her father said. “She’s better on the ball, she has a better understanding of the game. A lot of their game was because of speed. Hers is more thinking, hers is more of the ball on her feet.

“Technically, she’s better and understands the game at this age.”

Gisele, the sister who chauffeurs Zoe to practice in Santa Clarita, agrees. But, she adds, Zoe’s greatest strength may actually be her desire.

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“She just has so many great qualities that me and Alyssa don’t have,” she said. “At her age, she wants it way more than we did. She loves soccer with a passion. Me and Alyssa didn’t love it as much as she does.”

And if that passion translates to performance, Zoe will someday join her sisters on the national team. By then she may even be in the driver’s seat.

Team owner Carlos Marroquin talks to Zoe Thompson after a training session.

Santa Clarita Blue Heat team owner Carlos Marroquin talks to Zoe Thompson after a training session at Valencia High.

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Thunder lose star Jalen Williams for Western Conference Finals Game 7 as hamstring injury lingers

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Thunder lose star Jalen Williams for Western Conference Finals Game 7 as hamstring injury lingers

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The Oklahoma City Thunder will be shorthanded in Saturday’s pivotal Game 7, as one of Oklahoma’s key contributors has been sidelined with an injury.

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OKC guard Jalen Williams has been ruled out for Game 7 with a hamstring issue, ESPN reported on Friday. Williams appeared to aggravate his left hamstring during the Thunder’s 122-113 victory in Game 2. He missed the next three games before returning for Game 6, but logged just 10 minutes off the bench in Oklahoma City’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, which forced a winner-take-all Game 7.

“He’s obviously not 100%,” Mark Daigneault, the head coach of the Thunder, said.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams watches during the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in Game One of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 18, 2026. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

Daigneault applauded Williams for fighting through the injury and doing everything he could to help Oklahoma City.

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“He didn’t know what to expect. I didn’t know what to expect. So, it was a matter of getting him out there in kind of an insulated role and see what he can bring to the team. He’s an All-Star player, he’s an All-NBA player. He hasn’t done a full return to play [protocol] like he would if this was the regular season, and yet, he just wants to do whatever he can to try to contribute whatever he can to the team.”

BLOCKBUSTER GAME 7 SHOWDOWN: FOUR BEST BETS FOR SAN ANTONIO SPURS AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

“I give him a lot of credit to get himself out there. He did the best he could. He’s certainly not the reason we lost.”

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams reacts to a shot by forward Luguentz Dort in the third quarter against the San Antonio Spurs during game one of the Western Conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, on May 18, 2026. (Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images)

Williams did not talk to reporters after Thursday’s game in San Antonio.

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Williams underwent surgery last offseason to repair a wrist injury but still played a key role in the Thunder’s run to the NBA Finals last season. He appeared in just 33 regular-season games before this year’s playoffs.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams drives into the paint during the first quarter of Game Two of the NBA Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 20, 2026. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

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The winner of Saturday’s Game 7 will advance to the NBA Finals to face the New York Knicks. New York snapped a nearly three-decade Finals drought by sweeping the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals.

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