Sports
Ranking Juan Soto’s free-agent suitors: Which team will sign him? And for how much?
Three weeks into this MLB offseason, two questions dominate the discussion across the sport:
Which team will sign Juan Soto? And for how much?
The Soto sweepstakes are heating up. Five teams — the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays — have met with Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, to make their initial pitches. A sixth team, the Phillies, is expected to sit down with Soto soon, and more could follow.
The teams know they have a chance to sign a generational player who is just entering his prime. They also know it’ll cost them.
Soto’s contract is expected to break records in terms of both average annual value and present-day value (as calculated for luxury tax purposes), but not surpass the total amount of Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers from last offseason.
Sources with the involved teams believe the Soto contract will end up being $550 million to $650 million, depending on the structure of the deal, and 10 to 15 years, depending on luxury tax impact and other factors that could benefit the team in terms of length.
(For comparison’s sake, keep in mind Ohtani’s $700 million deal had a net present value of $460 million for luxury tax purposes because of all the deferrals. The next largest contracts in MLB history were Mike Trout at $426 million, Mookie Betts at $365 million and Aaron Judge at $360 million.)
I predicted a 15-year, $622 million contract when I finalized my top free agent ranking in late October. I believed Soto would get $622 million because he is only 26, has one of the best hit tools the game has ever seen, and should age well. Fifteen years makes sense when you consider many superstar players have signed deals that run until they’re at least 40, even though the backends of those contracts rarely work out well for the teams.
Those are eye-popping numbers, but they’re really not surprising given the player.
A player who will be entering his age-26 season. A player who has already been to two World Series. A player who is comparable to Ted Williams with 40-home run power.
Sure, Soto is only adequate defensively in the outfield — though he was a Gold Glove Award finalist this year — but he has a strong and accurate arm. Sure, he doesn’t possess blazing speed or get good leads, but he is a smart, instinctive base runner.
He’ll go down in history as one of the best on-base percentage players of all time. His bat plays at the highest level against the best pitching. His penchant for the dramatic is well-documented. All the cliches apply: He wants to be at the plate in the biggest moments, on the biggest stages — and he’s proven he’ll perform, as he demonstrated with a sensational walk-year season in New York that included a three-run homer that propelled the Yankees to their first World Series in 15 years.
May we once again re-introduce, The Generational, Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/6R5fWpEg6I
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 20, 2024
After the World Series, Soto followed the Boras script to a T when he spoke to the media.
“I don’t know what teams want to come after me, but definitely, I’ll be open to this and every single team,” Soto said. “I don’t have any doors closed or anything like that. I’m going to be available for all 30 teams.”
Soto said he was open to any team, even if that might not be the case, because that’s the best way to get the best offer, and it’s surely what his agency advised. If a player wants a particular destination, Boras and his lieutenants don’t want anyone to know until the end of the process, so they can maximize the offer, let all the teams that are in the bidding think they have a chance — and then when they get the best offer — go back to the team the player prefers and ask for its best and final offer.
Boras has always counseled his star clients to wait until free agency to sign to maximize their value, and that strategy is poised to pay off handsomely for Soto, who turned down $440 million from the Nationals in 2022 before he was eventually traded to San Diego.
His agency has almost always recommended players take the most money and years — for themselves and their families but also to grow the market for future free agents. While some have suggested Soto prefers to play on the East Coast, during free agency he’s indicated he’s open to the West Coast. Several in the industry familiar with Soto and his camp believe he will take the biggest offer, with the most money and years trumping geography. The best opportunity to win championships could be a deciding factor among those he’ll consider. With the belief that the top teams will be willing to commit the dollars it takes to land him, in the end Soto will choose exactly where he wants to play.
At the start of this offseason, I thought about one-third of the teams in the league would make a serious bid for Soto. Things can change in the coming weeks, but at this point, I believe there are only six or seven legitimate landing spots for the four-time All-Star: the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox — who I view as the most likely destinations — followed by the Blue Jays and maybe a team that’s yet to emerge. All of those named teams should have the resources to make a deal, and all but the Blue Jays should be contending or within striking distance of perennial contenders over the next several years.
Alex Rodriguez is flanked by his agent, Scott Boras (left), and Rangers owner Tom Hicks after signing a record 10-year, $252 million contract with Texas in 2000. (Tom Fox / Getty Images)
Boras has a long history of surprising the baseball world with free agent landing spots, like when Max Scherzer signed with Washington, Iván Rodriguez signed with Detroit and Alex Rodriguez broke the bank with the Rangers. If an unexpected team emerges and decides to outbid the field, there’s a chance Soto will accept the offer. It’s just tough to see that scenario unfolding, especially because that team would need to beat out so many big-market behemoths.
But in my four decades working in MLB front offices, I learned it only takes one wild-card owner to change the free-agent landscape, one owner who’s willing to shatter records to land a franchise player for their club.
Another variable to consider in all of this: The Boras Corporation represents many of the top free agents — and they are intermingled and can affect each other. For example, Boras also reps first baseman Pete Alonso. Let’s say, for illustrative purposes, Soto has six teams in contention and all are willing to bid in the $600 million range, but Alonso has only two teams that will bid in the $150 million to $200 million range and only one of those teams is also in on Soto. Then it might be best for the Boras Corporation and both of its clients if Alonso signs the best offer he can get but it also pushes Soto to one of his other five teams if the money he’s being offered is the same. Ultimately, the player makes the decision that’s best for him, but free agents’ markets can be connected and affect who signs who.
MLB’s Winter Meetings will be held next month at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas, the same hotel where Boras negotiated A-Rod’s record-breaking deal with the Rangers in 2000 and where Albert Pujols shocked the sport by signing with the Angels in 2011.
It’s easy to imagine Soto with Boras at the podium in Dallas a few weeks from now, announcing his next team and another ground-breaking deal. But which team’s cap will be on his head? Which fan base will be ecstatic?
When the dust settles weeks or even months from now in the race for the offseason’s most-prized free agent, who will win the Soto sweepstakes?
Soto said he was open to joining all 30 teams. Below, I’ve ranked the field of plausible contenders — including teams actively pursuing him, others monitoring his market, and still others that make sense as destinations and possibly could emerge — based on who is most likely to land him. (I left out roughly two-thirds of the league because those teams either aren’t engaged in Soto’s market or have no realistic chance of signing him.)
Here’s how I see the state of the Soto sweepstakes as of today.
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The Big Five — teams with a legitimate chance to sign Soto
Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor could be teammates next year if the Mets outbid their crosstown rivals. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
1. New York Mets
The Mets are my favorites to sign Soto because I believe if their owner, Steve Cohen, wants him, he will make the highest bid — offering the most dollars and years — and if he does that and no other team matches it, I think he’s getting his man. Cohen was the highest bidder last offseason for Yoshinobu Yamamoto before the Dodgers matched the Mets’ bid, and his offer two years ago to Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162 million) far exceeded any other the outfielder had received.
2. New York Yankees
The tandem of Judge and Soto brought back memories of Ruth and Gehrig and Mantle and Maris — and rightfully so. Soto seemed at home in the Bronx. He loved the fans and the fans loved him. I think if the Yankees have the best offer on the table, or match it, there is a strong chance he returns. If they don’t sign Soto, expect them to immediately pivot to some combination of Anthony Santander, Christian Walker, Willy Adames and Tanner Scott.
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3. Los Angeles Dodgers
If I’m Soto, I’d sign with the Dodgers because they are positioned to build a dynasty. Can you imagine a lineup of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman and Soto for the next several years? My goodness. Beyond their overwhelming talent, the Dodgers have the resources and the culture that give Soto the best shot of winning in the short- and long-term.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a track record of signing star players. It’s always been a key part of his formula and how he’s won wherever he’s gone. I believe he has one more future Hall of Famer on his mind: Soto. J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber’s combined $44 million comes off the Phillies’ books after 2025; Nick Castellanos’ $20 million per year comes off after 2026. There is a pathway to make a Soto deal work financially by backloading the first couple of years of a 12- to 15-year contract. And, Phillies ownership — with Dombrowski and before he arrived — has shown it will play in the deep end of free agency and dish out record deals.
5. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox know they made a mistake when they decided not to go all-in to keep Mookie Betts, and they’ve learned from their missteps in recent years. They appear to be serious players for Soto. They have one of the best farm systems in the game and payroll flexibility going forward. Their meeting with Soto went well, as they sought to convince him that the special talent in their system will allow them to spend on free agents and trade acquisitions over the next several years. Soto was impressed with that aspect of their presentation, according to a league source briefed on the meeting.
Five teams that could surprise
Toronto is one of three AL East teams that have met with Soto during free agency. (Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
6. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays finished second in the Ohtani sweepstakes, and they have the resources to make the largest offer to Soto. They can sell him on representing a country — not just a city — but can they really convince him they’re positioned to win?
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have struggled over the years to land top position player free agents, but they were the highest bidder for Aaron Judge before the Yankees matched the offer and they were the highest bidder for Carlos Correa before nixing the deal over concerns about his medical records. Perhaps Buster Posey, their new president of baseball operations, might be able to convince Soto to sign with them — but this is a long shot, especially with a payroll reduction possibly on the horizon.
8. Washington Nationals
There could not be a better script for Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo than to trade Soto to San Diego for a Herschel Walker-type prospect package and then two and a half years later, re-sign Soto.
9. Houston Astros
Astros owner Jim Crane has historically been opposed to long-term contracts as he allowed both Correa and George Springer to depart over the length of the deal. He did extend Jose Altuve and is working to do the same with Alex Bregman. However, I think it’s more likely he focuses on extending Kyle Tucker than landing Soto.
10. San Diego Padres
If the late Peter Seidler hadn’t gotten ill, he might have completed a long-term contract to keep Soto in San Diego. However, that would assume Soto wasn’t focused on reaching free agency and he showed otherwise. It’s unlikely the Padres’ current ownership team would be willing to put another huge long-term contract on the books at this point, but I will never bet against A.J. Preller pulling off a surprise move.
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(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photo: Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos / Getty Images)
Sports
Florida AG launches civil rights investigation into MLB’s warning to Christian pitchers over Pride Night caps
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The attorneys general from Missouri and Florida have reacted strongly to the controversy stirred when Major League Baseball warned three San Francisco Giants players about inscribing a Bible verse on their Pride Night caps, and that reaction includes MLB being served with a subpoena that signals the launch of an official investigation.
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier launched his investigation on Friday by serving MLB with a subpoena to investigate whether it is violating the civil rights of players based on their religious beliefs.
The general purpose and scope of Florida’s investigation “extend(s) to possible civil rights and deceptive and unfair trade practices violations in matters of employment concerning the business practices, policies, and procedures of Major League Baseball,” per the subpoena obtained by Fox News Digital.
In a letter from Uthmeier to MLB Commissioner Robert Manfred, the AG warns that “a pattern or practice of selectively enforcing its rules to benefit favored secular beliefs over disfavored religious beliefs would not only potentially violate Florida civil rights law, but it would also violate the League’s own policies.
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FACES BACKLASH FOR ITS STANCE ON CHRISTIANS WRITING BIBLE VERSES ON PRIDE CAPS
“And a practice of claiming not to discriminate based on religion while discriminating based on religion could further amount to an unfair or deceptive trade practice in violation of the Florida Deceptive and Unfair Trade Practices Act.”
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier speaks at a news conference in Orlando on July 15, 2025, where he said U.S. Masters Swimming should not allow transgender athletes to compete against women swimmers or face legal action. Advocates Cassidy Carlisle and Lainey Armistead also attended. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service)
Uthmeier is particularly troubled by the fact MLB said its warning had nothing to do with the players’ religious beliefs but rather was strictly because of a violation of the league’s uniform code.
It should be noted MLB said in a follow-up statement to its initial warning to the players that it was merely enforcing its uniform codes and the warning had nothing to do with Giants pitchers Landen Roupp, JT Brubaker and Ryan Walker writing a Bible verse on the team’s Pride Night Cap most of the other players wore.
MLB ACCUSED OF ‘DOUBLE STANDARD’ AFTER CALLING OUT PLAYERS’ BIBLE MESSAGES DESPITE BACKING BLM IN 2020
Uthmeier noted that doesn’t ring true and presented in his letter a handful of examples where MLB has been absolutely fine with players adding to their uniform.
“In 2019, for example, a Cincinnati Reds player wrote on his cap in tribute to a nearby mass shooting,” Uthmeier wrote to Manfred. “And in 2020, MLB evidently added new, sweeping exceptions to its uniform rules by allowing players to ‘support social justice and diversity and inclusion.’ These policy changes included permitting players to add Black Lives Matter patches to their sleeves.
“MLB therefore appears to applaud — even change its rules for — the ideological beliefs it prefers, but targets players who express religious views the League doesn’t like.”
Commissioner of Major League Baseball Robert D. Manfred Jr. speaks at the 2024 MLB Draft presented by Nike at Cowtown Coliseum in Fort Worth, Texas, on July 14, 2024. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The Florida subpoena, issued under the Florida Civil Rights Act, demands action from MLB on July 23, 2026, at 9 a.m.. At that time, MLB must deliver to the AG’s office documents including:
- All documents concerning how MLB characterized or classified the June 2026 cap writing, including, for example, whether MLB treated it as religious expression, political messaging, protest, or a violation unrelated to its content.
- All documents concerning what prompted MLB’s review of and warning regarding the June 2026 cap writing, including any complaint, media inquiry, internal escalation, or third-party communication received before the warning issued, and the timing of each relative to the warning.
- All documents concerning the actual June 2026 warnings issued by the MLB to any club.
- All documents, including drafts and internal deliberations, concerning MLB’s decision to issue and publicly announce the June 2026 warnings, and any analysis of whether doing so adhered to the Code or with MLB’s treatment of comparable non-religious expression.
San Francisco Giants pitcher Landen Roupp wrote “Genesis 9:12-16” on his Pride-Night themed hat. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Uthmeier is thus joining Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, who recently wrote a letter to Manfred asking the commissioner to confirm that no player who has chosen to refrain from “wearing Pride Month paraphernalia or included Bible verses on Pride Month hats” will not be disciplined in any way.
Hanaway’s letter states that if Manfred fails to answer by June 25 or does not confirm that no discipline will be levied, she too will open an investigation of MLB.
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The two attorneys general have authority over their individual states. But it affects four MLB teams.
Florida is home to two MLB teams — the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins — while Missouri is home to the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.
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Sports
Commentary: Why MLB’s Pride Night cap condemnation isn’t the anti-Christian crackdown conservatives claim
Amid the first days of grief after Alex Vesia and his wife lost their newborn daughter last fall, Vesia noticed something as he watched the World Series on television. He paused the broadcast, then checked the video, then texted another player to make sure.
51.
Dodgers teammates wore his number on their caps. So did players from the Toronto Blue Jays.
“It was awesome,” Vesia said. “It was a very heartwarming moment.”
Moving.
Touching.
And, under baseball’s rules, illegal.
Who knew, really, until this week? Three pitchers from the San Francisco Giants wrote the name of a Bible verse on their Pride Night caps and, amid an uproar, Major League Baseball said it had warned the players that “writing of any kind, with any message” on any playing apparel is not permitted. The issue, the league said in a statement, was not what they wrote on their caps but simply that they wrote on them at all.
Said MLB in the statement: “We have given the same warning numerous times in the past to players for messages such as ‘Dad’, ‘Happy Mother’s Day, I Love Mom’ and names of family members.”
To its credit, the league did not enforce the rule when Vesia’s number started appearing on caps in the World Series. But, if you’re going to draw a line on enforcement, where should you draw it?
In San Francisco, the actions of the Giants’ pitchers were widely condemned.
“They were in for a rude awakening with the response, and it wasn’t just from the gay community,” Giants broadcaster and former pitcher Mike Krukow told KNBR, the team’s flagship radio station. “It was from the Northern California community that supports the gay community.”
In response to media inquiries, and as first reported by Outsports, MLB confirmed it had warned the three players. I asked the league whether warnings had been issued in two other instances in which players had written on their caps, including Clayton Kershaw last year writing the same Bible verse on his Pride Night cap that the Giants’ pitchers wrote this year. MLB declined to comment.
“I got chastised by the league when I put Charlie [Kirk]’s name on my hat last year, because a man was murdered in cold blood,” Dodgers pitcher Blake Treinen told me, “and now these gentlemen who are relievers in San Francisco are getting chastised by the league for putting a Bible verse on their hat. It’s crazy to me.”
Treinen said league officials had told him the rule is strictly enforced.
“I straight up asked Clayton last year, ‘Did they call you when you put that on your hat?’” Treinen said. “He said, ‘No.’”
The Pride caps feature team logos decorated in the colors of the rainbow, a symbol long associated with the gay community. In the Bible verse cited by the pitchers (Genesis 9:12-16), the rainbow represents “the everlasting covenant between God and all living creatures.”
That the league would warn players against writing a Bible verse on their caps ignited a wave of conservative outrage, from Vice President JD Vance to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley fired off a letter to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, alleging apparent discrimination “against baseball players who profess their Christian faith” and threatening the league’s antitrust exemption. Assistant U.S. Atty. Gen. Harmeet Dhillon said on national television that players might be able to file a claim for employment discrimination.
That is complete nonsense. This is what you want: When employees raise an issue to their employer, the employer listens and addresses their concerns.
In 2023, the year after five Tampa Bay Rays players declined to wear rainbow logos for Pride Night, Manfred said the league would no longer compel players to do so.
“We have told teams, in terms of actual uniforms, hats, bases that we don’t think putting logos on them is a good idea just because of the desire to protect players: not putting them in a position of doing something that may make them uncomfortable because of their personal views,” Manfred said then.
Teammates congratulate Freddie Freeman after his walk-off home run gave the Dodgers a 1-0 win on June 5, when the Dodgers held their annual Pride Night. Blake Treinen, the winning pitcher that night, elected to wear his regular Dodgers cap instead of the Pride version.
(Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
Manfred said the Pride Night celebrations could go on, however a team wished to stage them — or not, in the case of the Texas Rangers, the only one of the 30 MLB teams that declines to hold a Pride Night. And the league still sells Pride gear on its website for all teams, including the Rangers.
In the cases of the Giants and Dodgers, MLB grandfathered each team’s long-running use of a rainbow logo on the cap, with this accommodation to players: If you don’t feel comfortable wearing the Pride cap, just wear your regular cap.
That is what Treinen and outfielder Alex Call did when the Dodgers celebrated Pride Night. That is also what a fourth Giants pitcher did.
“My job is to abide by the rules,” Treinen said. “Ultimately, the only rule we have is to wear our team-issued uniform. So that’s what I chose to do.”
To Treinen, the decision over whether to wear a Pride cap is not about passing judgment on anyone else but about what he sees as the push “to force something on people that you know that is controversial to their faith — and, in fact, straight up against their faith.”
He expressed his support for the Giants pitchers.
“Kudos to those men over there who are standing strong in their faith,” he said. “It’s a sad thing to corner someone and try to make them feel bad about their convictions.”
I respect Treinen for explaining his viewpoint. To me, wearing a Pride cap for one night does not diminish your faith at all. It might sharpen your convictions. More important, it signals a welcome to everyone in the community that buys the tickets and broadcast subscriptions that help pay your salary.
“I think a few people made it about themselves and not about the community,” San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie told the Bay Area Reporter.
We always proclaim the life lessons of sports. One of them: Sometimes you have to put the team’s interests ahead of your own.
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After its massive 1-0 win over South Korea on Thursday night, Mexico has won Group A and officially clinched a spot in the knockout round.
El Tri will play its Round of 32 game in Mexico City, and will face the third-place finisher in either Group C/E/F/H/I.
This is the fourth time that Mexico has topped the group stage of a World Cup, with the other three coming in 1986, 1994 and 2002.
With the win, Mexico remains unbeaten in World Cup group games at home, going a combined 6-2-0 (W-D-L), with two wins and a draw in 1970 and 1986, and now two wins in 2026.
Before the tournament began, Mexico was listed at +6500 to win the World Cup. Now, after winning its first two games of the tournament, Mexico has surged up the oddsboard to +5000.
Can Mexico build off its first two matches and make a deep run in this tournament? Let’s check out the updated odds for El Tri as of June 19.
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Team Mexico — Stage of Elimination
Last 32: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Last 16: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Quarterfinals: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Semifinals: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Runner-up: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Outright winner: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Mexico is currently +5000 to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup after winning Group A (Getty Images).
Mexico’s Past World Cup Results:
1930: Group stage
1934: Did not qualify
1938: Withdrew
1950: Group stage
1954: Group stage
1958: Group stage
1962: Group stage
1966: Group stage
1970: Quarterfinals
1974: Did not qualify
1978: Group stage
1982: Did not qualify
1986: Quarterfinals
1990: Banned
1994: Round of 16
1998: Round of 16
2002: Round of 16
2006: Round of 16
2010: Round of 16
2014: Round of 16
2018: Round of 16
2022: Group stage
2026: TBD
What to know: Mexico has made a habit of being in the running, but never really being in the running. Make sense? Consider this: El Tri made it out of the group stage in seven consecutive World Cups (1994-2018), but never made it past the Round of 16 in any of those years. In 2022, Mexico failed to make it out of the group stage, and it will look to get back to its winning ways in 2026 after a great start to the tournament. With its win Thursday night, Mexico has now advanced to the knockout stage in eight of the last nine World Cups. It is important to note, however, that Mexico has never made it past the quarterfinals at a FIFA men’s World Cup.
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