Sports
Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents

Monday’s deep dive into Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a sneak peek of Extension Week.
Now I’ll start a broader look at potential extension candidates, concentrating today on players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents.
These players are, in general, less likely to sign an extension with free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically projecting what each player could earn on the open market before adding in his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it’s an early projection for a free-agent deal this upcoming winter.
Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players actually put pen to paper on an extension, all earning a bit more than I projected:
Player | Projected | Received |
---|---|---|
4 years, $136M |
3 years, $126M |
|
5 years, $82.5M |
10 years, $122.4M |
|
6 years, $48M |
6 years, $55M |
*Here and in all other tables, I’ll account for significant deferrals by using the present-day value of the contract when it was signed.
I’ve tried to factor that into the analysis this year.
Here’s how I go about this: I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with more than 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market.
I plug extension candidates into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production (and ideally with similar amounts of team control left) before they signed their deals, and work off of those comps.
A few overall points worth remembering:
- For extensions, team control is important. If Player A looks just like Player B, except Player A has three years of arbitration ahead of him and Player B was a free agent, Player A isn’t going to get the contract Player B did. However, what Player B made in free agency is still useful as a guide to what the later part of Player A’s contract can look like.
- For starting pitchers and position players, I look at fWAR in one-, three- and five-year samples, with a special emphasis on the shorter term. For extensions in particular, the five-year sample is less helpful because a lot of players haven’t been playing for five full years.
- For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
- This is an exercise in player valuation, not commentary on the likelihood of an extension being signed or whether I think a team or player should sign an extension at the value I suggest. I find doing this helpful even when an extension is unlikely because it helps me understand what the market may be once a player reaches free agency or to see how the player’s value has changed over time.
As we go through this, keep in mind:
- The actual extension projection in all cases includes what the player is slated to make this season. It will likely contain a lower AAV (average annual value) than the player would get on the open market for this reason.
- These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year, they were two years removed from free agency, and they were slated to make below market value via arbitration.
- The number in parentheses is the player’s age on July 1 of this year.
- In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal adjusted for inflation.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)
Maybe no one in baseball had a better year for their potential earnings than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to FanGraphs) washed away any concerns after a pedestrian 2023 and reminded the sport that he’s one of its very best hitters. Plus, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses signed for more than $750 million. So Guerrero is in significantly better shape this spring than he was last spring.
Earlier in spring training, I broke down why Guerrero’s value in an extension has proven difficult to pin down. At the moment, he looks like he belongs just below the second tier of free-agent contracts for first basemen (Miguel Cabrera is the sole occupant of the top tier).
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 |
32-41 |
3.9 |
19.1 |
35.5 |
10 |
240 |
33.6 |
|
2014 |
30-39 |
6.4 |
17.9 |
21.4 |
10 |
225 |
30.6 |
|
2019 |
31-35 |
5.2 |
15.4 |
26.9 |
5 |
130 |
32.8 |
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180 |
33.8 |
|
2025 |
26 |
5.5 |
10.1 |
16.7 |
Extending a deal for a massive 14 free-agent years would limit the AAV just a touch, to about $30 million. I know, I know: A deal that long comes off as crazy. But there have been a dozen players who have signed deals at least nine years in length in the last three offseasons — or just shy of the number of contracts that long that were signed over the prior decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts) extend through a player’s age-40 season, as this one would for Guerrero.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $185 million
2025 Salary: $28.5 million
2025 extension projection: 15 years, $450 million
Kyle Tucker (28)
If Tucker had remained healthy last season and continued playing the way he did in the first half of the season, his best statistical comp would be… Soto. Because of his age, Tucker wouldn’t have been able to get as long a deal as Soto, but he would have been able to make a case for a similar average annual value.
The comps are not bad as is.
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 |
26-35 |
6.2 |
14.9 |
23.8 |
10 |
300.0 |
37.8 |
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180.0 |
33.8 |
|
2025 |
28 |
4.2 |
14.1 |
22.9 |
||||
2025 |
31-33 |
4.1 |
14.0 |
20.5 |
3 |
90.0 |
30.0 |
|
2012 |
28-36 |
4.7 |
13.2 |
19.2 |
9 |
214.0 |
33.3 |
Tucker should be able to secure a deal through at least his age-36 season, and it’s not hard for him to argue he should go longer than either Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go with 10 years at about $35 million each before adding in this season’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Eight years, $204 million
2025 salary: $16.5 million
2025 extension projection: 11 years, $366 million
Dylan Cease (29)
Last season, Cease and Zac Gallen entered in a similar spot: at the same age, earning about the same in arbitration, in line for about the same extension. Then, while Gallen had a nice season, Cease posted another top-five finish in the Cy Young balloting. He’s placed himself in the same group as the top earning starters from this past winter.
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 |
29 |
4.8 |
12.8 |
17.8 |
||||
2025 |
30-35 |
3.7 |
11.8 |
24.2 |
6 |
193.8 |
32.3 |
|
2015 |
31-36 |
5.6 |
11.6 |
19.1 |
6 |
155.0 |
35.1 |
|
2025 |
31-38 |
3.4 |
10.1 |
17.6 |
8 |
218.0 |
27.3 |
Lester sets the high end for Cease, and that comp suggests Cease can in fact get more than Burnes just did from the Diamondbacks. Both point to a deal buying out six free-agent years. Let’s estimate those at just under $33 million and add in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.75 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $210 million
Zac Gallen (29)
Right now, Gallen isn’t quite on the same level as Cease.
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
2025 |
29 |
2.8 |
12.2 |
15.6 |
This sets him up for roughly the 2025 version of Cueto’s deal in free agency: six years and $174 million, before adding this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.5 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $187 million
Framber Valdez (31)
Valdez has had just as much success as Cease and Gallen; the issue for him is he’s two years older than those guys. Starters who hit the open market entering their age-32 season seldom sign for more than three or four years. (The exceptions are guys like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who all owned Cy Young awards.)
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
2025 |
31 |
3.6 |
12.4 |
16.8 |
Let’s stick with the same comps as Gallen but only for four free-agent years rather than six.
2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
2025 salary: $18 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $134 million
Devin Williams (30)
Just looking at the raw numbers isn’t charitable to Williams, who on a per-appearance basis is right there with recent closers who signed four-year deals like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed roughly two-thirds of last season.)
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR2
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 |
32-35 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
58 |
16.4 |
|
2025 |
30 |
1.6 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
72.0 |
18.0 |
|
2025 |
30 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
Given that no position gets paid on reputation quite the way closer does, Williams could still be in line for a deal that rivals Scott’s, before adding in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: N/A
2025 salary: $8.6 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $80 million
(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)

Sports
10-year-old chess prodigy defeats grandmaster in ‘near-perfect game’

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Bodhana Sivanandan, a 10-year-old chess prodigy from London, made headlines over the summer after she became the youngest female chess player to defeat a grandmaster. This week, Sivanandan reached another important milestone in her young career.
The young talent, known as the “girl wonder,” defeated former women’s world champion and grandmaster Mariya Muzychuk in the first round of the European Chess Club Cup, hosted in Greece on Sunday.
Bodhana Sivanandan, 9, competes in the second round of the Delancey UK Chess Challenge Terafinal in Woodstock, Great Britain, Oct. 12, 2024. (REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett)
Experts called the stunning victory a “near-perfect game,” The Times reported.
Grandmaster David Howell took to social media to commend Sivanandan for her “incredible win.”
“It’s not every day a 10-year-old defeats a [grandmaster] (and former world champion) in such style,” his post on X read.
Sivanandan seemed quite pleased with her win, but told The Times she’s looking for more victories.

Bodhana Sivanandan, a 10-year-old chess prodigy, competes in the British Chess Championships at St. George’s Hall on Aug. 7, 2025, in Liverpool, England. (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
CHESS PRODIGY, 10, MAKES HISTORY AFTER DEFEATING 60-YEAR-OLD GRANDMASTER
“I’m happy to win, but hopefully I do even better in the future games … This will inspire me to keep doing better and trying harder to win more games,” she said.
Sivanandan made history this summer when she defeated Grandmaster Peter Wells, 60, in the final round of the 2025 British Chess Championships in August. According to the International Chess Federation, Sivanandan set the record previously held by American Carissa Yip, who set the record in 2019 at 10 years, 11 months and 20 days old.

Bodhana Sivanandan, center, a 10-year-old chess prodigy, competes in the British Chess Championships at St. George’s Hall on Aug. 7, 2025, in Liverpool, England. (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Sivanandan was 10 years, five months, and three days old when she defeated Wells.
She has made a name for herself since first picking up the game during the COVID-19 pandemic, when she was just 5 years old.
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Sports
Coach-of-the-year candidates in high school football keep expanding

With two weeks left in the regular season for high school football, it’s become clear there’s a large and growing list of candidates for coach of the year. They are considered based on exceeding expectations, winning championships or helping to engineer a program turnaround when no one saw it coming.
Let’s review the great coaching performances so far this season:
Los Alamitos football coach Ray Fenton stands with his players on Thursday during an Alpha League opener at SoFi Stadium.
(Craig Weston)
- Ray Fenton, Los Alamitos: The man looks so fit he could run around any stadium without breaking a sweat. Few expected the Griffins to be 8-0 at this point, let alone be in the running for a Southern Section Division 1 playoff berth. He’s molded a team of best friends into believing in themselves no matter the opponent. San Clemente and Mission Viejo are the only teams standing in the way of a 10-0 regular season.
-
Terrance Whitehead, Crenshaw: When head coach Robert Garrett was placed on administrative leave before the season began, the Crenshaw grad and longtime assistant took over. Garrett helped train him, and Crenshaw is 7-1 going into a Coliseum League title decider against King/Drew on Friday. The Cougars have discipline, resiliency and are playing to make Garrett and his assistants proud.
Crenshaw interim coach Terrance Whitehead speaking with quarterback Danniel Flowers.
(Robert H. Helfman)
- Brad Vonnahme, Crespi: Who predicted the Celts would be 8-0 and headed to the Del Rey League championship in Vonnahme’s third season of a massive rebuilding job? He hasn’t brought in transfers, rather relying on players who start out as freshmen learning the game and move up. There’s a group of sophomores being developed who could be very good in the coming seasons.
-
Jason Negro, St. John Bosco: The Braves have established themselves as the No. 1 team in California, if not the nation, while relying on an improving sophomore quarterback and four receivers headed to college success. He knows championships are won with the help of the offensive and defensive lines, and those are the areas to watch as the playoffs approach.
St. John Bosco coach Jason Negro has his team ranked No. 1 in the nation.
(Craig Weston)
- Jon Ellinghouse, Sierra Canyon: The Trailblazers are 8-0 and no one has come close to beating them. The season will be based on whether they can break through and disrupt the St. John Bosco-Mater Dei domination. Their defense is clearly the best in Southern California.
- Dylen Smith, Palisades: He lost his field, lost his weight room and nearly lost his team to the Palisades fire. And yet, the Dolphins have persevered and are 8-0 with players who stayed and a couple new ones who wanted to experience an adventure with no guarantee of success.
- Chad Johnson, Mission Viejo: With the Diablos (7-1) having wins over Santa Margarita, Folsom and San Diego Lincoln, Johnson challenged his team with a difficult nonleague schedule and they’ve met that challenge. He placed his trust in quarterback Luke Fahey, and don’t doubt how far this team can advance.
- Rick Clausen, Westlake: An assistant coach all his life, Clausen decided to accept the head coaching position even though his wife died of cancer. He’s somehow managed to balance parenting duties and coaching duties, helping a Westlake team go from 0-10 last season to 8-0 this season in his rookie year.
- Tony Henney, Dana Hills: Wherever Henney goes, he succeeds. He’s been head coach at Nordhoff, Trabuco Hills, St. Bonaventure and Westlake. He has Dana Hills at 8-0 going into a game on Friday against 8-0 Laguna Beach, whose own coach, John Shanahan, surrounded himself with an elite group of assistants, including former JSerra head coach Scott McKnight. The winner of the battle of the unbeatens might not be stopped the rest of the way.
-
Kevin Hettig, Corona del Mar: With his team 8-0 and tough games ahead, Hettig has quietly and competently prepared the Sea Kings to stay focused and keep improving each week.
Corona del Mar head coach Kevin Hettig, quarterback Brady Annett, and NMUSD superintendent Dr. Wesley Smith.
(Don Leach/Staff Photographer)
- Jason Miller, Leuzinger: Who loses his only quarterback who can pass and still keeps the team winning? Miller and the Olympians (6-1) are on the verge of ending Inglewood’s reign as a league champion by using 5-foot-8 Journee Tonga as his versatile offensive weapon and replacement quarterback.
-
Mike Moon, Oxnard Pacifica: Moon is trying to get his always underrated 8-0 team to run the table in the Marmonte League. He’s helped develop junior quarterback Taylor Lee while managing rising expectations and winning close games.
Mike Moon of Oxnard Pacifica has his team at 8-0.
(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)
- Raymond Carter, Torrance: The former All-City running back at Crenshaw has his team at 8-0, beating local team after local team led by junior quarterback Gibson Turner, who has 20 touchdown passes.
- Mark Carson, Rio Hondo Prep: Year after year, Carson has Rio Hondo Prep ready to succeed. This year’s 8-0 start is no different. A challenge ahead will be playing in a tougher playoff division.
- Darryl Goree, Palm Springs: An 8-0 start has the Indians being the talk of town. Senior linebacker Koa Rapolla has been turned loose and is averaging 13 tackles a game.
- Rick Curtis, Crean Lutheran: Curtis figured out how to best use one of the best athletes in the Southland, quarterback/point guard Caden Jones, and it has led to an 8-0 record.
Sports
Drew Brees backs Alvin Kamara’s retirement threat over potential Saints trade: ‘That should be celebrated’

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With the NFL trade deadline getting closer by the day, all eyes are on teams like the New Orleans Saints to see if they’re willing to sell off their stars to acquire draft picks for a potential rebuild.
One of those stars is running back Alvin Kamara, but he made it clear what he would do if general manager Mickey Loomis were to trade him. Kamara said he and Loomis are on the same page, but in the unlikely event it does happen, he threatened to retire.
“If I was a GM, I guess I would go to the player and be like, ‘Hey, we’re trading you. Just to let you know.’ If Mickey comes down and says that, then I’ll go drink a piña colada somewhere,” Kamara told reporters recently.
Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints react during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at Mercedes Benz Superdome on Jan. 10, 2021, in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
As someone who knows Kamara quite well, Saints legend Drew Brees loved hearing that answer from his old running back.
“Look, all of this is unfortunate and wouldn’t even be a topic if the Saints weren’t 1-6,” Brees told Fox News Digital, while discussing his flag football organization, Football ‘N’ America, partnering with Unrivaled Sports. “Immediately, when people think the season is ‘lost,’ or a high unlikelihood, all of a sudden you start dealing these pieces to get draft picks to build for the future. That term rebuilding, right?
ALVIN KAMARA THREATENS RETIREMENT IF SAINTS TRY TO TRADE HIM: ‘I’LL DRINK A PIÑA COLADA SOMEWHERE’
“I know Alvin obviously, but for those who don’t know Alvin, I think you should read into his comments as he loves being a part of the New Orleans Saints, and he loves the city of New Orleans and loves the people. He doesn’t want to go anywhere. So, when the topic is broached with him, ‘Hey, what would you think about…’ He doesn’t want to go anywhere else. ‘This is my team, I want to play here in front of these fans.’ I just think that’s a testament to his loyalty and that’s kind of rare nowadays, to be honest with you. That should be celebrated more than anything.”
Kamara isn’t the only attractive Saints star in the building. Wide receiver Chris Olave is another name swirling in trade speculation, while players like defensive end Cam Jordan and linebacker Demario Davis could be viewed as trade candidates as well.

Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints hands the ball off to Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Oct. 4, 2020, in Detroit, Michigan. (Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)
But Brees doesn’t like the thought of selling just because of what the record says. Having leaders like those in the locker room goes a long way.
“I think the reaction for everybody, especially when you’re not winning, that something must be really wrong and who do we blame it on?” Brees explained. “Everybody seems to want dysfunction – makes for a better story. I would almost argue there’s a heck of a lot more dysfunction I know on some winning teams right now than there is on teams like the Saints, who are 1-6.
“I think everybody loves the coach. I think the coach has really endeared himself to a lot of the team. They love playing for him despite the record, and I think we got guys who care about the organization, the city, the community. They love being a part of the team, they love being leaders on the team. They take real pride in it.”

Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints look on against the Los Angeles Rams during the fourth quarter in the NFC Championship game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Jan. 20, 2019, in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Brees feels his former team is “close,” but they may still need to find their identity. The coach he mentions is new head coach Kellen Moore, who is a first-year head coach that New Orleans really likes.
No one expected the Saints to turn around quickly this season, but Brees and others feel the pieces are in place, especially those like Kamara who want to remain in place to get the Saints back to their playoff ways.
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