Sports
Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents
Monday’s deep dive into Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a sneak peek of Extension Week.
Now I’ll start a broader look at potential extension candidates, concentrating today on players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents.
These players are, in general, less likely to sign an extension with free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically projecting what each player could earn on the open market before adding in his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it’s an early projection for a free-agent deal this upcoming winter.
Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players actually put pen to paper on an extension, all earning a bit more than I projected:
| Player | Projected | Received |
|---|---|---|
|
4 years, $136M |
3 years, $126M |
|
|
5 years, $82.5M |
10 years, $122.4M |
|
|
6 years, $48M |
6 years, $55M |
*Here and in all other tables, I’ll account for significant deferrals by using the present-day value of the contract when it was signed.
I’ve tried to factor that into the analysis this year.
Here’s how I go about this: I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with more than 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market.
I plug extension candidates into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production (and ideally with similar amounts of team control left) before they signed their deals, and work off of those comps.
A few overall points worth remembering:
- For extensions, team control is important. If Player A looks just like Player B, except Player A has three years of arbitration ahead of him and Player B was a free agent, Player A isn’t going to get the contract Player B did. However, what Player B made in free agency is still useful as a guide to what the later part of Player A’s contract can look like.
- For starting pitchers and position players, I look at fWAR in one-, three- and five-year samples, with a special emphasis on the shorter term. For extensions in particular, the five-year sample is less helpful because a lot of players haven’t been playing for five full years.
- For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
- This is an exercise in player valuation, not commentary on the likelihood of an extension being signed or whether I think a team or player should sign an extension at the value I suggest. I find doing this helpful even when an extension is unlikely because it helps me understand what the market may be once a player reaches free agency or to see how the player’s value has changed over time.
As we go through this, keep in mind:
- The actual extension projection in all cases includes what the player is slated to make this season. It will likely contain a lower AAV (average annual value) than the player would get on the open market for this reason.
- These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year, they were two years removed from free agency, and they were slated to make below market value via arbitration.
- The number in parentheses is the player’s age on July 1 of this year.
- In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal adjusted for inflation.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)
Maybe no one in baseball had a better year for their potential earnings than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to FanGraphs) washed away any concerns after a pedestrian 2023 and reminded the sport that he’s one of its very best hitters. Plus, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses signed for more than $750 million. So Guerrero is in significantly better shape this spring than he was last spring.
Earlier in spring training, I broke down why Guerrero’s value in an extension has proven difficult to pin down. At the moment, he looks like he belongs just below the second tier of free-agent contracts for first basemen (Miguel Cabrera is the sole occupant of the top tier).
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2012 |
32-41 |
3.9 |
19.1 |
35.5 |
10 |
240 |
33.6 |
|
|
2014 |
30-39 |
6.4 |
17.9 |
21.4 |
10 |
225 |
30.6 |
|
|
2019 |
31-35 |
5.2 |
15.4 |
26.9 |
5 |
130 |
32.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
26 |
5.5 |
10.1 |
16.7 |
Extending a deal for a massive 14 free-agent years would limit the AAV just a touch, to about $30 million. I know, I know: A deal that long comes off as crazy. But there have been a dozen players who have signed deals at least nine years in length in the last three offseasons — or just shy of the number of contracts that long that were signed over the prior decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts) extend through a player’s age-40 season, as this one would for Guerrero.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $185 million
2025 Salary: $28.5 million
2025 extension projection: 15 years, $450 million
Kyle Tucker (28)
If Tucker had remained healthy last season and continued playing the way he did in the first half of the season, his best statistical comp would be… Soto. Because of his age, Tucker wouldn’t have been able to get as long a deal as Soto, but he would have been able to make a case for a similar average annual value.
The comps are not bad as is.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2019 |
26-35 |
6.2 |
14.9 |
23.8 |
10 |
300.0 |
37.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180.0 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
28 |
4.2 |
14.1 |
22.9 |
||||
|
2025 |
31-33 |
4.1 |
14.0 |
20.5 |
3 |
90.0 |
30.0 |
|
|
2012 |
28-36 |
4.7 |
13.2 |
19.2 |
9 |
214.0 |
33.3 |
Tucker should be able to secure a deal through at least his age-36 season, and it’s not hard for him to argue he should go longer than either Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go with 10 years at about $35 million each before adding in this season’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Eight years, $204 million
2025 salary: $16.5 million
2025 extension projection: 11 years, $366 million
Dylan Cease (29)
Last season, Cease and Zac Gallen entered in a similar spot: at the same age, earning about the same in arbitration, in line for about the same extension. Then, while Gallen had a nice season, Cease posted another top-five finish in the Cy Young balloting. He’s placed himself in the same group as the top earning starters from this past winter.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2025 |
29 |
4.8 |
12.8 |
17.8 |
||||
|
2025 |
30-35 |
3.7 |
11.8 |
24.2 |
6 |
193.8 |
32.3 |
|
|
2015 |
31-36 |
5.6 |
11.6 |
19.1 |
6 |
155.0 |
35.1 |
|
|
2025 |
31-38 |
3.4 |
10.1 |
17.6 |
8 |
218.0 |
27.3 |
Lester sets the high end for Cease, and that comp suggests Cease can in fact get more than Burnes just did from the Diamondbacks. Both point to a deal buying out six free-agent years. Let’s estimate those at just under $33 million and add in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.75 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $210 million
Zac Gallen (29)
Right now, Gallen isn’t quite on the same level as Cease.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
29 |
2.8 |
12.2 |
15.6 |
This sets him up for roughly the 2025 version of Cueto’s deal in free agency: six years and $174 million, before adding this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.5 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $187 million
Framber Valdez (31)
Valdez has had just as much success as Cease and Gallen; the issue for him is he’s two years older than those guys. Starters who hit the open market entering their age-32 season seldom sign for more than three or four years. (The exceptions are guys like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who all owned Cy Young awards.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
31 |
3.6 |
12.4 |
16.8 |
Let’s stick with the same comps as Gallen but only for four free-agent years rather than six.
2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
2025 salary: $18 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $134 million
Devin Williams (30)
Just looking at the raw numbers isn’t charitable to Williams, who on a per-appearance basis is right there with recent closers who signed four-year deals like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed roughly two-thirds of last season.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR2
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2022 |
32-35 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
58 |
16.4 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
1.6 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
72.0 |
18.0 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
Given that no position gets paid on reputation quite the way closer does, Williams could still be in line for a deal that rivals Scott’s, before adding in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: N/A
2025 salary: $8.6 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $80 million
(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
Sports
Pro Football Hall of Famer Troy Aikman critiques NIL landscape, transfer rules and Lane Kiffin’s LSU move
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For the past couple of decades, former NFL star quarterback and Pro Football Hall of Famer Troy Aikman has shared his thoughts on what he’s seen during whichever game he and his longtime broadcast partner are calling.
The three-time Super Bowl winner is currently part of the “Monday Night Football” broadcast crew. Aikman has routinely given his take on a variety of football-related topics, from the state of NFL officiating to college football.
Some of Aikman’s latest thoughts about the college game centered on the growing number of players who have taken advantage of the transfer portal in today’s polarizing NIL landscape.
The former Dallas Cowboys quarterback and many others have referred to the state of today’s sport at the collegiate level as the “Wild West.”
Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman stands with his Monday Night Football Broadcast announcer Joe Buck before a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants at Acrisure Stadium. (Barry Reeger/Imagn Images)
“College football has become the Wild West, as everybody knows. Forget about Lane Kiffin for a minute, but starting with NIL, there just has been no guardrails. I’m on the National Football Foundation Board, so I hear firsthand from a lot of the commissioners and athletic directors and the people involved in all of that. It’s gotta get cleaned up, first and foremost,” Aikman told The Athletic.
When asked about student-athletes’ mobility in today’s world, Aikman reflected on his personal choices during his time competing at the NCAA level.
NFL GREAT TROY AIKMAN FIRES BACK AT JERRY JONES’ TRADE PLAN AMID LOSING EFFORT: ‘HE MAY WANT TO CANCEL’
“I was a transfer. I went from Oklahoma to UCLA, and I’ve always felt that if a coach is able to pick up and leave, that a player should have the same opportunity if a coach leaves,” he continued.
UCLA quarterback Troy Aikman (8) runs the ball during a college football game against Arizona on Oct. 2, 1988, at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz. (Mike Powell/Allsport/Getty Images)
“What’s happened obviously over the years since I got out of college football is that in recent years with NIL, there’s been no accountability on the players,” Aikman continued. “So the players pick up and now they’re leaving all the time whereas before it was typically the coach. The player used to have to sit out a year. Now, the players can up and go regardless of whether or not they’ve been paid. It’s every man for himself.”
Aikman then dived into another college football hot topic – Lane Kiffin’s decision to leave Ole Miss in favor of LSU. The NFL analyst gave his best guess on what fueled Kiffin to make the leap.
“Lane Kiffin’s motivation? Is it his thoughts that it’s a better opportunity for him at LSU? Possibly. Is it money? Possibly. Is it lifestyle? Possibly. I can’t answer any of those questions.”
Then-Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin throws a football before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on Oct. 25, 2025. (Kevin Jairaj/Imagn Images)
“But whatever his motivation is, he feels like LSU is the right place for him. So I don’t fault him for that at all. I know there’s always hard feelings. Ole Miss did not want to lose Lane Kiffin,” he said. “Once he made the decision to leave, now he’s a pariah. Let’s get this guy just as far away from us as we can. I understand that as well. Everybody gets a little bit jaded.”
Aikman concluded that those in positions of power should ultimately take charge and focus on getting things in order. “Where I’m at is I think there’s gotta be some leadership at the very top that kind of cleans all of this up. Starting with players that accept money, there’s gotta be some accountability and responsibility on their behalf to have to stick with a program. I gave money to a kid. I won’t mention who. I’ve done it one time at UCLA. Never met the young man. He was there a year, he left after the year. I wrote a sizable check, and he went to another school. I didn’t even get so much as a thank you note.”
Aikman is scheduled to be on the call for a Week 15 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins on Dec. 15.
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Sports
Take a swing? Two Buss brothers consider investing in baseball’s Athletics
Could two members of the Buss family add some green and gold to their purple and gold?
Joey and Jesse Buss, fired last month as Lakers executives, have explored pursuing an ownership stake in baseball’s Athletics, according to two people familiar with the discussions but not authorized to speak publicly about them.
The discussions were described as preliminary, and it is unclear whether they might result in a deal. Jesse Buss did not reply to a message seeking comment.
In September, Joey and Jesse – sons of legendary Lakers owner Jerry Buss – announced the launch of Buss Sports Capital “to pursue high-impact investment opportunities across the global sports ecosystem.” The announcement said Buss Sports Capital would aim “to partner with forward-thinking professionals to unlock new opportunities in professional sports.”
Joey and Jesse Buss retain their stakes of Lakers ownership. In October, Dodgers owner Mark Walter closed his purchase of majority ownership in the Lakers, in a deal that valued the Lakers at $10 billion. Walter tasked Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and former general manager Farhan Zaidi to assess the Lakers’ front office operations.
Last month, Joey Buss was dismissed as vice president of research and development and Jesse Buss as assistant general manager.
The A’s left Oakland after the 2024 season. They plan to move from their temporary Sacramento home to Las Vegas in 2028, and construction there is underway on an enclosed 30,000-seat stadium originally estimated to cost $1.5 billion. In July, team owner John Fisher told the Nevada Independent the cost had risen into “the $2 billion range.”
Fisher obtained $380 million in public funding. He is responsible for the balance of construction costs. In 2023, The Times first reported that Fisher hoped to generate $500 million toward stadium costs by valuing the A’s at $2 billion and selling 25% of the team to minority investors.
Fisher has since used a higher valuation in soliciting investors. CNBC last year estimated the A’s franchise value at $2 billion, Forbes at $1.8 billion, and Sportico at $1.6 billion.
The A’s have posted four consecutive losing seasons. They say they are rebuilding toward their planned 2028 arrival in Las Vegas, and they have an impressive core of position players, including first baseman Nick Kurtz — the American League rookie of the year — shortstop Jacob Wilson, catcher Shea Langeliers, designated hitter Brent Rooker, and outfielders Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom.
Times staff writer Broderick Turner contributed to this report.
Sports
Browns to start Shedeur Sanders at quarterback for remainder of 2025 season
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There will be no more quarterback moves for the Cleveland Browns for the remainder of the 2025 season, as Shedeur Sanders will stay as the team’s starter for the next four games.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski told reporters that he’s seen Sanders “constantly and consistently gotten better in each of these games,” as he’s started the last three contests after fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel suffered a concussion in Week 11 against the Baltimore Ravens.
“He’s been working very hard. I feel good about where his development is heading,” Stefanski said of Sanders. “He knows there are always gonna be plays that he could be better and those types of things, but he’s very intentional about getting better each and every game he’s out there.”
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Cleveland Browns’ Shedeur Sanders (12) and Teven Jenkins (74) celebrate a touchdown in the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans in Cleveland, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
Sanders became the first Browns quarterback to win his first-ever start in the league after helping take down the Las Vegas Raiders for Cleveland’s third win of the season.
And while Sanders completed a season-high 64% of his passes against the San Francisco 49ers in his first start at home, the Browns weren’t able to see the same victory on their record at the end of that contest.
BROWNS COACH DRAWS FURY AS SHEDEUR SANDERS SITS DURING CRUCIAL 2-POINT TRY
Sanders made his third start in a row on Sunday in sloppy conditions in Cleveland against a lowly Tennessee Titans team that beat them, 31-29, to capture just their second win of the year.
During the game, Stefanski drew the ire of Sanders fans when the quarterback was off the field for a two-point conversion try despite throwing a touchdown pass to tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Stefanski, instead, tried for a wildcat play with rookie running back Quinshon Judkins leading the way. The play ultimately didn’t work out, and fans wondered what could’ve been if Sanders was in the game.
Shedeur Sanders of the Cleveland Browns stands for the national anthem prior to a NFL Preseason 2025 game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on Aug. 8, 2025, in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Logan Bowles/Getty Images)
“Browns removing Shedeur constantly on goal 2 go situations and going wildcat needs 2 be studied,” Shannon Sharpe wrote on X. “He’s on the SL. That’s bulljive.”
Skip Bayless even called for the removal of Stefanski after seeing what transpired at the end of the game.
“SHEDEUR TO FANNIN FOR THE CLUTCH TD — THEN STEFANSKI TAKES SHEDEUR OUT FOR THE WILDCAT — DISASTER. STEFANSKI BLOWS ANOTHER GAME. HE JUST COULDN’T STAND SEEING SHEDEUR TIE THE GAME WITH A 2-POINT CONVERSION AFTER SUCH A GREAT LONG TD DRIVE. FIRE STEFANSKI!”
Sanders was impressive despite the losing result, going 23-of-42 for 364 yards passing with three touchdowns and his first career rushing score.
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The Browns will travel to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears in Week 15, followed by games against the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and finishing the season against the Cincinnati Bengals.
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