Sports
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can’t keep getting away with this. Or can they?
The Kansas City Chiefs keep winning games no team should win so frequently, leaving opposing fans pointing to everything from dumb luck to favorable officiating to explain the maddening inevitability.
Mathematically, the Chiefs’ 15-game winning streak in games decided by one score or less should happen once in 406 chances.
With a 19-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on a last-second field goal that bounced off the left upright before clearing the crossbar Sunday, the Chiefs became the 26th team in league history to begin a season with a 12-1 record.
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Yet, they are one of one.
The Chiefs’ point differential through 13 games (plus-56) is by far the smallest for any 12-1 team.
The victory over the Chargers was Kansas City’s fourth of the season by one or two points, a total exceeded just once over a full season in the 105-year history of the NFL. The 1989 Green Bay Packers did it five times and finished 10-6, per Pro Football Reference.
How do the Chiefs keep doing this? What is their secret? This specific Kansas City team appears configured to play many close games and win a higher percentage of them, even if the current 15-game win streak in one-score games remains a mathematical outlier, as we’ll demonstrate next.
What will it mean in the playoffs? There are indicators to consider there as well.
The odds behind the streak
The Chiefs have an 18-1 record since Week 17 of 2023, counting their four-game run to a second successive Super Bowl victory. That period includes the 15-game victory streak in games decided by eight or fewer points. The Chiefs have also won by 19, 13 and 10 during that span, while suffering their only defeat, 30-21, at Buffalo on Nov. 17.
To calculate how likely a team would be to win 15 consecutive games of any kind, we take the team’s expected win rate in those games to the power of the streak duration. Counting playoffs, the Chiefs had a 42-21 (.667) record in one-score games from 2018-23 with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. I used this rate to plot Kansas City’s expected wins across 15 such games.
The table below shows the likelihood of a team winning between one and 15 games consecutively with projected win rates of 67 percent (Mahomes’ win rate in one-score games from 2018 to 2023) and 78 percent (his win rate in 2023-24).
Win streak probability by expected win %
| Games in Streak | 67% Win Rate | 78% Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
66.7% |
78.3% |
|
2 |
44.5% |
61.3% |
|
3 |
29.7% |
48.0% |
|
4 |
19.8% |
37.6% |
|
5 |
13.2% |
29.4% |
|
6 |
8.8% |
23.0% |
|
7 |
5.9% |
18.0% |
|
8 |
3.9% |
14.1% |
|
9 |
2.6% |
11.1% |
|
10 |
1.7% |
8.7% |
|
11 |
1.2% |
6.8% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
5.3% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
4.2% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
3.3% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
2.5% |
The microscopic 0.246 percent likelihood of a 15-game streak in the left column works out to a 1-in-406 chance.
It’s historic. Is it unfathomable?
There are ways to demystify the achievement.
The 67 percent win rate creates an expectation that the Chiefs would win 10 of these 15 games. In that case, no one would be shocked if they won a couple fewer or a couple more. Let’s say they happened to win 12. Throw in some one-off occurrences, such as Kansas City blocking a last-second field goal against Denver in Week 10, and the remaining three victories might be explained. An unlikely scramble here, a fortunate penalty there.
But there’s more to it than that.
Perceptions of Chiefs heighten our disbelief
The Chiefs win so frequently and at such a high level, including in the past two Super Bowls, that even the betting markets seem surprised when they do not dominate on the scoreboard.
Point spreads can be instructive here.
The Chiefs are 6-1 over their past seven games without covering the spread even once, per TruMedia.
Since 2000, 21 other teams have gone exactly seven consecutive games without covering. They combined for an 18-129 (.122) record during those streaks. That’s 6-1 for the Chiefs, 18-129 for everyone else.
It’s another way to feel as though the Chiefs are underperforming even when they win, which invites questions about their legitimacy, even though they aren’t the ones setting the expectations.
Winning without impressing might be a Kansas City phenomenon.
The 2020 Chiefs went 5-0 over a five-game stretch without covering the spread, the only team to accomplish that feat since 2000. The 2018 Chiefs own the second-best record since 2000 (3-3) among teams that failed to cover for six straight games.
Nothing seems to come easily for these 2024 Chiefs.
Their rate of explosive plays — defined as rushes gaining 12-plus yards and passes gaining more than 15 — has plummeted to 8.5 percent this season. That ranks 30th, ahead of only the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, who have 2-11 records. The rate is down from 10.5 percent last season, which ranked 16th, and barely half what it was in 2018 (15.7 percent, which ranked second).
Kansas City nonetheless ranks eighth in offensive EPA per play because the Chiefs have shown great ability to sustain long drives, partly because Mahomes ranks first in EPA per pass play on third and fourth downs (he’s 24th on early downs). The Kansas City defense, which has slipped to 18th in EPA per play this season after ranking fifth in 2023, ranks 25th in turnovers forced (10) this season and 27th over the past three.
Longer, more laborious drives by the offense, combined with a defense that plays pretty well in general but does not take the ball away with frequency, could explain why games involving the Chiefs have fewer total possessions than games involving any other team but the Arizona Cardinals this season.
With fewer possessions, each one becomes more valuable, which also could play into Kansas City’s advantages.
Why the Chiefs win so many close games
Reconciling the Chiefs’ 12-1 record with their plus-56 point differential would be difficult without accounting for the roles elite quarterbacks and coaches might play.
Most teams with point differentials near the Chiefs’ plus-56 would have records near 8-5 through 13 games.
The Chiefs are one of seven teams since 1970 with 10-plus wins through 13 games despite having point differentials between plus-51 and plus-61, per Pro Football Reference.
Top 13-game W-L records with +51-61 point margin
Six of the seven had Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks and/or head coaches: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick with the 2003 New England Patriots; Aaron Rodgers with the 2021 Packers; a broken-down Peyton Manning (backed by an elite defense) with the 2015 Denver Broncos; Tom Landry with the 1981 Dallas Cowboys; Andy Reid with the 2003 Eagles; and, of course, Mahomes with Reid on these Chiefs.
Kansas City also has a consensus top-five defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo.
These advantages could tip game outcomes when the margins for winning are smallest.
Mahomes in particular is a master scrambler throughout games and especially in critical moments. His scramble rate jumps by about 50 percent in the fourth quarter of one-score games (9.8 percent, compared to 6.5 percent in all situations).
Scrambles for gains of 10 yards against the Chargers on Sunday and 33 yards against Carolina in Week 12 moved the Chiefs into field-goal range during drives that ended with walk-off kicks. Last season, while protecting a 23-20 lead against the New York Jets, Mahomes scrambled 25 yards on third-and-23 to help the Chiefs run the final 7:24 off the game clock with a 15-play drive.
The chart below shows the EPA he has added over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, counting playoffs, on scrambles in the fourth quarter and overtime when no more than eight points separated Kansas City from its opponents on the scoreboard. Mahomes is so much more prolific than others, he’s almost off the chart.
A league-leading seven of these scrambles added at least 5 percent to the Chiefs’ win probability, per Next Gen Stats.
While some critical officiating calls have helped the Chiefs win close games recently, including a pass-interference call against Cincinnati on fourth-and-16 in the final minute in Week 2, Kansas City ranks only 15th in penalty EPA per game in fourth quarters of one-score games over the past two seasons. Seattle has benefited the most and Cleveland the least in these situations.
The Chiefs, despite having recent turnover at kicker, have made all 18 field-goal tries in the fourth quarter of one-score games over the past two seasons. Their average kick distance in these situations is the sixth-shortest in the league (35.2 yards), probably because Mahomes and the offense do such a good job getting into position. Cincinnati, by contrast, averages a league-long 46.4 yards on these kicks.
The smallest things can make the biggest differences in the most critical situations.
What it means in the playoffs
Before the Chiefs, the 1976 Oakland Raiders owned the distinction as the 12-1 team with the lowest point differential (plus-89). That Raiders team won the Super Bowl, but only after overcoming a 21-10 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat New England in the first round of the playoffs. Oakland got a 1-yard touchdown pass from Ken Stabler in the final 10 seconds to win 24-21 after officials controversially flagged the Patriots for roughing the passer on a third-and-18 incompletion. Not too difficult to imagine Kansas City pulling off something similar, is it?
We might also revisit that list of teams that were 10-3 or better through 13 games, but with point differentials similar to Kansas City’s this season.
Those 2003 Patriots and 2015 Broncos won the Super Bowl. The 1978 Rams and 1981 Cowboys reached the NFC title game. The 2021 Packers lost in the divisional round. The 2013 Eagles lost in the wild-card round.
The Chiefs’ ability to win so many close games is a leading reason Kansas City has a league-best 78 percent chance to secure a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
That means Kansas City probably needs to win only two playoff games to reach another Super Bowl.
What’s a two-game winning streak for a team that has won 15 one-score games in a row?
(Photo: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)
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James Harden arrested in Houston on misdemeanor weapons charge after NBA playoff exit: report
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Two weeks after being eliminated from the NBA playoffs, James Harden was reportedly arrested in Houston, where he used to play, early Saturday morning.
The California Post, citing court records, said the 11-time All-Star was placed in custody on a misdemeanor charge of unlawful carrying of weapons.
Harden allegedly “unlawfully, intentionally and knowingly” had a handgun in his vehicle, the records said, according to the outlet.
Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Harden controls the ball against New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson during the second half of Game 3 in the Eastern Conference finals in Cleveland on May 24, 2027. (Sue Ogrocki/AP)
The firearm “was in plain view” and “not carried in a holster.”
The outlet reported that Harden was at a local hookah lounge with friends before his arrest.
Harden’s Cleveland Cavaliers were recently swept by the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks are one win away from their first NBA title since 1973.
“The Cleveland Cavaliers are aware of the arrest of James Harden this morning and are in the process of gathering additional information,” the Cavs said in a statement. “We are in contact with James and his representation and will continue to monitor developments as they become available. At this time, we will have no further comment.”
Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Harden disputes a call during the second half of Game 3 in the Eastern Conference finals against the New York Knicks in Cleveland on May 24, 2027. (Sue Ogrocki/AP)
TEEN PUNCHED AND KICKED INTO A COMA AFTER KNICKS-SPURS ALTERCATION NEAR MADISON SQUARE GARDEN: POLICE
The Cavs acquired Harden in a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers to boost their playoff push, and they earned the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Harden averaged 20.5 points per game after the trade, understandably taking a back seat to Donovan Mitchell. He averaged 25.4 points per game in L.A., but the Clippers failed to make the playoffs, as they scored the sixth-fewest points per game in the NBA.
The Post said Harden is due back in court on June 22 for arraignment.
Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Harden reacts to a call during the first half of Game 4 in the Eastern Conference finals against the New York Knicks in Cleveland on May 25, 2026. (Sue Ogrocki/AP)
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Harden played for the Houston Rockets from 2012 until 2021, when he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets. He was named the MVP of the 2017-18 season and led the NBA in scoring each season from that year through 2019-20. In that span, he averaged nearly 34 points per contest.
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The U.S. men’s soccer team chose an incredible day to have an incredible day.
Crucially, the United States aced its only chance to make a first impression, kicking off this colossal World Cup it’s co-hosting with Mexico and Canada with a 4-1 victory over Paraguay.
Consider it a save for the tournament, three points for soccer in America and maybe even a win for uniting the States.
The Americans on the pitch did all that, including making sure a sellout crowd of 70,492 fans got their money’s worth for their exorbitantly high-priced seats to watch football under Friday Night Lights at SoFi Stadium.
U.S. forward Folarin Balogun, right, celebrates with Sergino Dest and Chris Richards after scoring during a World Cup win over Paraguay on Friday at SoFi Stadium.
(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)
It was not a clean sheet. And it wasn’t an elixir for all the issues — visas, tickets, transportation — that ailed the tournament in its buildup.
But the opening statement by the United States confirmed what we thought might be true. Only one thing could save this soccer tournament: soccer.
The U.S. delivered a performance to change the conversation — for the next few weeks and maybe longer.
Making history to alter history.
The United States scored multiple goals in a World Cup first half for the first time since 2002.
It got two of them from Folarin Balogun, the Brooklyn-born, England-raised forward of Nigerian descent who became just the second USMNT player to score two goals in a World Cup game and the first since 1930.
Got a perfect match from Chris Richards, the afro-rocking defender with the long, loping strides, who was 83 for 83 on his passes. That’s better than any player at a World Cup since 1966.
And if possession is nine-tenths of the law of attraction, know that the Americans possessed the ball 71% of the first half, most in the first half of a World Cup game in the modern era.
Landon Donovan, star of the 2002 team that reached the World Cup quarterfinals — a record that still stands — posted on X: “From start to finish, that was the most enjoyable day of soccer I’ve ever experienced.”
That’s the stuff that will get the American people going. Get us invested, get us behind them. That could convert even devout casuals.
Americans love a good underdog story. We also want the best, the finest, the biggest — and this, with its expanded field of 48, is the biggest version of the biggest and best tournament in the world.
And the only thing we love more than winning is dominating. The United States did that Friday against a Paraguayan team that had allowed only 10 goals in 18 World Cup qualifying matches, and whom the United States beat 2-1 in a tense match in November.
Fans cheer during the U.S. win over Paraguay in their World Cup opener Saturday at SoFi Stadium.
(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)
That was Mauricio Pochettino and his players helping us help them.
“The fans, amazing,” said Pochettino, the team’s accomplished Argentine coach. “On behalf of the whole team, a massive thank you to the fans. Because the energy that they [gave] to the team was amazing. We can do amazing things if the fans are in this as well.”
Friday was so good for soccer in America.
And so good for America. The kind of butt-kicking that’s chicken soup for a nation’s soul.
Maybe it’s idealistic and naive, or apple-pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking, but I believe that they can win. (And by win, I mean make the quarterfinals again.)
There’s no removing politics from this World Cup, but wouldn’t it be fun to all rally behind a team together? Can’t you see the country coalescing behind the right wingers and left wingers on the pitch? Picture people celebrating the freedom inherent in Pochettino’s system? Cheering the all-for-one and one-for-all of this team of dual nationals and Americans raised abroad — or in Alabama?
Postmatch, Pochettino refused to single out any one player, instead giving reporters a recitation of his roster: “[Christian Pulisic] was amazing [setting up two goals]. Balogun was amazing, of course. Tim Ream was amazing, of course. Chris Richards was amazing, yes. Weston McKennie, he was amazing, amazing. Antonee Robinson, Alex Freeman, amazing. Sergiño Dest, amazing …”
Like they put it on the @USMNT Instagram account: “Together as Won.”
U.S. soccer, amazing.
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The wait is over. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is coming to 16 different cities across Canada, Mexico and the United States this summer, and you’ll be able to catch all the action with FOX Sports, America’s English-language home for the 48-team soccer bonanza.
Here is the full broadcast schedule for the 2026 FIFA World Cup and how you can watch every game:
How to Watch the 2026 FIFA World Cup
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will run from June 11–July 19, 2026. Spread across three countries, the tournament will culminate with the final on July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. All 104 tournament matches will air live across FOX and FS1 with every match streaming live and on-demand within both the FOX One and the FOX Sports apps.
JUMP TO: Group Stage | Knockout Rounds | World Cup Final
2026 World Cup Group Stage Schedule:
June 11, 2026
June 12
June 13
June 14
June 15
June 16
June 17
June 18
June 19
June 20
June 21
June 22
June 23
June 24
- Group B: Watch Switzerland vs Canada — BC Place Vancouver (3 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group B: Watch Bosnia vs Qatar — Seattle Stadium (3 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group C: Watch Brazil vs Scotland — Miami Stadium (6 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group C: Watch Morocco vs Haiti — Atlanta Stadium (6 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group A: Watch Mexico vs Czechia — Mexico City Stadium (9 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group A: Watch South Korea vs South Africa — Monterrey Stadium (9 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
June 25
- Group E: Watch Ecuador vs Germany — New York New Jersey Stadium (4 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group E: Watch Curaçao vs Ivory Coastt — Philadelphia Stadium (4 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group F: Watch Tunisia vs Netherlands — Kansas City Stadium (7 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group F: Watch Japan vs Sweden— Dallas Stadium (7 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group D: USA vs Türkiye – Los Angeles Stadium (10 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group D: Watch Paraguay vs Australia — San Francisco Bay Stadium (10 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
June 26
- Group I: Watch Norway vs France — Boston Stadium (3 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group I: Watch Senegal vs Iraq — Toronto Stadium (3 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group H: Watch Uruguay vs Spain — Guadalajara Stadium (8 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group H: Watch Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia — Houston Stadium (8 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group G: Watch New Zealand vs Belgium — BC Place Vancouver (11 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group G: Watch Egypt vs Iran — Seattle Stadium (11 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
June 27
- Group L: Watch Panama vs England —New York New Jersey Stadium (5 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group L: Watch Croatia vs Ghana — Philadelphia Stadium (5 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group K: Watch Colombia vs Portugal — Miami Stadium (7:30 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group K: Watch DR Congo vs Uzbekistan — Atlanta Stadium (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
- Group J: Watch Argentina vs Jordan — Dallas Stadium (10 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One)
- Group J: Watch Algeria vs Austria — Kansas City Stadium (10 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One)
2026 World Cup Schedule: Knockout Round
Round of 32
June 28
June 29
June 30
July 1
July 2
July 3
Round of 16
July 4
July 5
July 6
July 7
Quarterfinals
July 9
July 10
July 11
Semifinals
July 14
July 15
World Cup Final
July 19
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The World Cup will run from June 11–July 19, 2026. Spread across three countries, the tournament will culminate with the final on July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. All 104 tournament matches will air live across FOX and FS1 with every match streaming live and on-demand within both the FOX One and the FOX Sports apps.
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