Connect with us

Sports

NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

Published

on

NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

The NFL offseason is well underway, and while the upcoming NFL Draft will shake things up even more, there has been no shortage of roster-altering moves. The biggest, of course, have come at quarterback. We’re still waiting for one big domino (Aaron Rodgers) to fall, but we’ve already seen huge shifts in the QB landscape. No. 1, of course, was the Seattle Seahawks trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders before signing former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to be their new signal caller.

How did those moves, and all of the others made so far this offseason, affect their teams’ outlooks for the 2025 season? It’s a bit like asking: Who have been the biggest winners and losers of the offseason so far? We’re going to attempt to answer that analytically using our NFL Projection Model.

Before we get there, it bears repeating: A lot can change. Teams have plenty of time to alter their standing in these rankings. But we wanted to examine where things are right now. How much value have some teams added? How much have some teams lost?

To measure that, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL. Think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.

After that, I went through every transaction made this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 25). Since I’m only looking at how these moves affect each team for the 2025 season, my model does not factor in the length of the contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players changing teams. Players who re-signed with their teams aren’t included because those players’ values were already included in their teams’ projections.

Advertisement

With that explanation out of the way, here’s a look at how many expected points each NFL team had added or lost this offseason.

Five Biggest Winners

Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not sure how any list doesn’t include the Raiders at the top, or at the very least inside the top three, after landing Smith. The Raiders roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot, especially in the vaunted AFC West, but they’ve solidified the sport’s most important position with a quarterback who has proven he can give you a solid floor as a league-average QB with the ability for more. And with quarterback (presumably) locked down for the next few seasons, new coach Pete Carroll can focus on acquiring talent to fill out the rest of the roster.

New York Giants

The Giants were wise not to stop addressing the QB position after signing Jameis Winston last week. He now becomes their backup with the newly signed Russell Wilson leading the charge into 2025. Now we’ll see if they want to add a rookie to the mix in April. Beyond their solid start at QB, the Giants made some nice moves on defense by adding safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo while improving the depth of their front seven. The Giants weren’t a QB away from anything significant, but they’ve quietly done a good job fortifying the roster at a position they still need to find a long-term answer for.

New England Patriots

The Patriots continued their free-agent spending spree Tuesday night, adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a receiving group that needed a No. 1. After that splash signing, finishing third in these rankings might seem low. And maybe it is. It probably boils down to what you think of Harold Landry III as an edge rusher. My model thinks Landry is just fine — and that’s not a bad thing. Having average players on the roster can be good if you can put stars around them. Factor in Landry’s familiarity with new head coach Mike Vrabel, and you understand why New England made the move. Offensive tackle Morgan Moses and defensive tackle Milton Williams are the other additions my model likes, and if you think Landry will be better in this new system, you can easily make an argument for the Patriots jumping the Giants in these rankings and even threatening the Raiders for the top spot.

Advertisement

Indianapolis Colts

My model loved the Charvarius Ward signing, grading it as one of the most impactful moves made this offseason not involving a quarterback. While there is some risk — Ward is 28 years old — a change of scenery might be what just what the veteran cornerback needs to return to form as one of the best defensive backs in the league. Pair the Ward signing with the addition of safety Cam Bynum, and the Colts have done an excellent job of upgrading a secondary that badly needed one.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders made their splashes on the trade market rather than in free agency, and my model liked what they did. Laremy Tunsil remains one of the better left tackles in the league, and that was a position where Washington needed an upgrade. Meanwhile, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. should fit into this Washington offense with his versatility, pairing well with the skill set of QB Jayden Daniels. Adding cornerback Jonathan Jones was another interesting move and one that my model liked. He’s up there in age (31) and didn’t have the greatest 2024 season, but if he bounces back in any way, watch out for the Commanders (again) this season.

Five Biggest Losers

New York Jets

The loss of Rodgers might be offset by the addition of Justin Fields, but there were still some major losses here. Davante Adams remains a very good wide receiver, despite getting up there in age; Moses is still a quality tackle; and the biggest loss, according to my projections, is D.J. Reed. Reed has been a quality cornerback for a while, and he’s going to be difficult to replace. I don’t necessarily disagree with letting these players walk, given the state of the roster and the price tags it would have taken to keep them in town, but there’s no debate the Jets lost some top talent this offseason.

San Francisco 49ers

This ranking shouldn’t come as a surprise to those tracking San Francisco’s offseason, which has seen a mass exodus of quality players. I already spoke about how much my model likes Ward, but the 49ers also lost Samuel, Jordan Mason, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Isaac Yiadom, among others. Maybe that’s the price of doing business after paying running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk ahead of of a new contract for quarterback Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are in the middle of a transitional period, and the state of their roster shows it.

Philadelphia Eagles

One of the byproducts of winning the Super Bowl, or just being consistently competitive in the NFL, is that players on your team earn significant raises. That’s just the way it goes. Last year, the Eagles and Chiefs were near the bottom of this list after the early part of free agency, and both reached the Super Bowl, so all hope isn’t lost in Philadelphia, especially with so much talent still on the roster. But no matter how you shake it, Philadelphia will be looking to replace a lot of snaps from this year’s championship-winning squad as Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay Jr., C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers are all gone.

Advertisement

Dallas Cowboys

Staying in the NFC East here, the Cowboys will again be looking to primarily bolster their roster through the draft, which they’re pretty decent at, rather than free agency. The losses of DeMarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis, and Chauncey Golston are daunting (though letting Lewis walk after one of his best seasons isn’t the worst decision), and the loss of Zack Martin to retirement will sting. He was certainly past his peak, but he was still a quality offensive lineman, and those are always hard to find.

Seattle Seahawks

What did you expect after they traded away their starting quarterback and a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver? If it’s any consolation to Seahawks fans, it’s impressive they aren’t last on this list. That’s because they replaced Smith and DK Metcalf with Darnold and Cooper Kupp to help offset those losses, while adding Lawrence to their defense. The model is skeptical Darnold can replicate his success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are past their primes and have some injury concerns, so it’s no surprise the Seahawks still rank near the bottom.

(Photos of John Lynch, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith: Ezra Shaw and Tom Hauck / Getty Images)

Sports

NBA player calls for Hawks to cancel their ‘Magic City’ strip club promotional night out of respect for women

Published

on

NBA player calls for Hawks to cancel their ‘Magic City’ strip club promotional night out of respect for women

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

An NBA player has taken exception to an Atlanta Hawks promotional night, which is a nod to a famed strip club in the city. 

The Hawks have “Magic City Night” scheduled for March 16 against the Orlando Magic, but a player for neither team isn’t too fond of paying tribute to a strip club, which has been famed for its late-night stories involving athletes, celebrities and more. 

While the Hawks call it an ode to a “cultural institution,” San Antonio Spurs center Luke Kornet shared his displeasure in a letter posted on Medium. 

Advertisement

Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs reaches for the ball during the third quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on Feb. 26, 2026 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.  (Ishika Samant/Getty Images)

Kornet, a nine-year veteran and 2024 NBA champion with the Boston Celtics, called for the Hawks’ promotional night to be canceled later this month, saying that it is disrespectful to women to honor the strip club. 

“In its press release, the Hawks failed to acknowledge that this place is, as the business itself boasts, “Atlanta’s premier strip club.” Given this fact, I would like to respectfully ask that the Atlanta Hawks cancel this promotional night with Magic City,” Kornet wrote in his post.

“The NBA should desire to protect and esteem women, many of whom work diligently every day to make this the best basketball league in the world. We should promote an atmosphere that is protective and respectful of the daughters, wives, sisters, mothers, and partners that we know and love.”

The Hawks boasted about the theme night in its press release, including a live performance by famous Atlanta rapper T.I., a co-branded, limited-edition hoodie and even the establishment’s “World Famous” lemon-pepper chicken wings in the arena. 

Advertisement

A general view of signage with the State Farm Arena logo on Nov. 14, 2025, outside State Farm Arena, in Atlanta, GA. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire)

“This collaboration and theme night is very meaningful to me after all the work that we did to put together ’Magic City: An American Fantasy’,” said Hawks principal owner, filmmaker and actor, Jami Gertz, said in a press release. “The iconic Atlanta institution has made such an incredible impact on our city and its unique culture.”

Kornet wrote that allowing the night to continue “without protest would reflect poorly on us as an NBA community, “specifically in being complicit in the potential objectification and mistreatment of women in our society.”

Kornet wrote that “others throughout the league” were surprised by the Hawks’ decision to have this promotional night. 

“We desire to provide an environment where fans of all ages can safely come and enjoy the game of basketball and where we can celebrate the history and culture of communities in good conscience. The celebration of a strip club is not conduct aligned with that vision,” he wrote. 

Advertisement

Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs defends against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on Jan. 31, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

The Hawks have seen good reception for the promotional night, as Tick Pick reported a get-in price was initially $10 for the game and has since skyrocketed to $94. 

Kornet is in his first season with the Spurs, his sixth NBA team, where he has played mainly in a bench role. He averages 7.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game across 50 contests.

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter. 

Advertisement

Related Article

NBA game delayed due to technical malfunction as horn blares for 13 minutes straight

Continue Reading

Sports

Shaikin: Clayton Kershaw’s ‘perfect’ ending has one final chapter in WBC

Published

on

Shaikin: Clayton Kershaw’s ‘perfect’ ending has one final chapter in WBC

How do you improve on the perfect ending?

Clayton Kershaw stood in the desert heat Monday, wearing a far darker shade of blue than the Dodgers do. He does not need a medal, or a chance to fail. His election to the Hall of Fame will be a formality.

In his farewell year, the Dodgers won the World Series, becoming baseball’s first back-to-back champions in 25 years. He secured a critical out. He bathed in adoration at the championship rally, and he told the fans he would be one of them this year.

“I’m going to watch,” he hollered that day, “just like all of you.”

Four months later, he was back in uniform.

Advertisement

He wore a dark blue jersey with red-and-white piping. As Team USA ran through its first World Baseball Classic workout, Kershaw participated in pitchers’ fielding practice and shagged fly balls during batting practice. He could have been home with his five kids, and instead he was rushing off the mound to take a throw at first base.

That November night in Toronto, as it turned out, was not the last time we would see him in uniform.

“Feels good,” he said Monday. “I wouldn’t put on a uniform for anything else. This is a special thing.”

He put the World Baseball Classic into red, white and blue perspective.

“It’s a bucket list thing for me,” he said.

Advertisement

He is either self-deprecating or painfully honest about his capabilities right now, or perhaps a little of both.

The last World Baseball Classic came down to Shohei Ohtani pitching to Mike Trout. This one could come down to Kershaw pitching to Ohtani.

“I think, for our country’s sake, it’s probably better if I don’t,” Kershaw said.

Former Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw fields a ground ball during a workout at Papago Park Sports Complex on Monday.

(Chris Coduto / Getty Images)

Advertisement

Never say never. Team USA planned to run a tremendous rotation of Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Joe Ryan and Logan Webb, but now Skubal says he will pitch just once in the tournament. Skenes says he’ll pitch twice. Ryan says he won’t pitch in the first round, at least.

Kershaw might be needed beyond the role he was promised: save the team from using the current major league pitchers in blowouts or extra innings.

In 11 career at-bats against Kershaw, Ohtani has no hits. Kershaw won’t duck the assignment if gets it, but he considers it so unlikely he is happy to share his game plan publicly.

“It’s throw it, pitch away, play away, hope he flies out to left,” Kershaw said. “Don’t throw it in his barrel.

Advertisement

“I can’t imagine, if it comes down to USA versus Japan, with the arms that we have, that I’ll be needed. But I’ll be ready.”

Kershaw’s average fastball velocity dropped to 89 mph last season, but he led the majors in winning percentage. He could eat innings for some team — maybe even the Dodgers, with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone all but certain to be unavailable on opening day.

Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, right, celebrates with teammates after the Dodgers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays.

Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, right, celebrates with teammates after the Dodgers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2025 World Series title.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

But, even with his success last year and even with the joy of wearing a uniform once again, he insists he isn’t interested in pitching beyond the WBC.

Advertisement

“I don’t want to,” he said. “You can’t end it better than I did last year. I had a great time last year. It was an absolute blast and honor to be on that team. I think that was the perfect way to end it. Honestly, I don’t know if I would have enough in the tank to pitch for a full season again. I’m really at peace with that decision.

“This is kind of a weird one-off thing, but you can’t really turn down this opportunity. It wasn’t easy to get ready for this, with no motivation for a season, but I actually am in a pretty good spot with my arm. I’ll be fine. If they need me, I’ll be ready.”

Kershaw said he has kept in touch with his old Dodgers teammates, with some connecting on video calls from the weight room or clubhouse at Camelback Ranch. He arrived in the Phoenix area two days before the workout, but he skipped a trip to Camelback Ranch.

“I’ve thought about it,” he said. “I miss the guys. I think it’s probably just better, at least for this first year, for me mentally to just stay away, just for spring training.”

Kershaw said he would be at Dodger Stadium for the championship ring ceremony March 27.

Advertisement

He is content with what he calls “Dad life.” He and his wife, Ellen, just welcomed their fifth child, and Dad life includes lots of shuttles to baseball and basketball practice.

“I run an Uber service,” Kershaw said.

This wouldn’t be a Dodgers story these days without some reference to the team’s big spending so, for what it’s worth, Kershaw spent some time Tuesday chatting with Skubal, who will be the grand prize on the free-agent market next winter, or whenever the likely lockout might end.

That’s a rational explanation, Kershaw says, for Skubal pitching just once in the WBC.

“Everybody knows the situation he is in, contract-wise,” Kershaw said. “Any innings we can get out of him is a huge bonus to this team. He’s great. Super competitive. We’re honored to have him.”

Advertisement

Should we assume Skubal will be pitching for the Dodgers next season? Kershaw laughed.

“No comment,” he said, then walked away to get ready for the first game of his post-retirement life.

Continue Reading

Sports

Charles Barkley scolds sports fans for getting wrapped up in Olympic hockey frenzy

Published

on

Charles Barkley scolds sports fans for getting wrapped up in Olympic hockey frenzy

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Basketball Hall of Famer Charles Barkley sounded off on the frenzied reactions to the U.S. men’s hockey team getting invited to the White House by President Donald Trump.

Trump talked to the Olympic gold medal-winning team immediately after they defeated Canada in overtime last weekend. He said they would be invited to his State of the Union address and added that he needed to invite the women’s team as well or he would be “impeached.”

Charles Barkley sits courtside against the Minnesota Timberwolves during an NBA Cup game at Mortgage Matchup Center on Nov. 21, 2025. (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)

Advertisement

Trump critics took the joke as a shot at the women’s team, which sparked questions from NHL and Professional Women’s Hockey League reporters as the players returned to their respective club teams.

“I’m proud of the United States men. I’m proud of the United States women. You should have invited both of them to the White House, but it shouldn’t have been disrespect, misogyny,” Barkley said on the “Steam Room” podcast. “Like, yo, man, why do y’all have to mess everything up? Everything isn’t Democrat, Republican, conservative, liberal. That’s why we got this divided, screwed up country. Stop it man. Because, you know, the public, they’re idiots. They’re fools. They can’t think for themselves. I know y’all say stuff to trigger them. Y’all say stuff and y’all know they’re going to be fools.”

Barkley lamented that the average person would get riled up over the supposed controversy.

The U.S. team poses for a group photo after defeating Canada in the men’s ice hockey gold medal game at the 2026 Winter Olympics. Milan, Italy, on Feb. 22, 2026. (Luca Bruno/AP Photo)

“We don’t have to fall for stupidity. But we do – that’s my point. These people out here are stupid. They need something to trigger them. Just because they want us to be stupid. We don’t have to be stupid. He should have invited both teams to the White House. Simple as that. Guys who didn’t want to go shouldn’t have to explain why they didn’t go.”

Advertisement

The former Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns star made clear he would go to the White House regardless of whether Trump was in office.

“I’ve said this before, I’m not a Trump guy. But if I got invited to the White House, I would go. I’m not a Trump guy – I want to make that clear. But I respect the office,” Barkley said. “He’s the president of the United States. But if guys don’t want to go, I understand that too. It doesn’t have to be a talking point. It doesn’t have to be un-American.

Megan Keller (5) celebrates with a flag alongside Cayla Barnes (3) of Team United States after scoring the game-winning goal in overtime during the women’s gold medal match against Canada on Day 13 of the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milan Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy, on Feb. 19, 2026. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

“I just wish y’all would stop falling for the stupidity.”

Advertisement

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

Related Article

US women's hockey players crack jokes about men's team on 'Saturday Night Live' after Trump controversy

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending