Sports
NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping
The NFL offseason is well underway, and while the upcoming NFL Draft will shake things up even more, there has been no shortage of roster-altering moves. The biggest, of course, have come at quarterback. We’re still waiting for one big domino (Aaron Rodgers) to fall, but we’ve already seen huge shifts in the QB landscape. No. 1, of course, was the Seattle Seahawks trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders before signing former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to be their new signal caller.
How did those moves, and all of the others made so far this offseason, affect their teams’ outlooks for the 2025 season? It’s a bit like asking: Who have been the biggest winners and losers of the offseason so far? We’re going to attempt to answer that analytically using our NFL Projection Model.
Before we get there, it bears repeating: A lot can change. Teams have plenty of time to alter their standing in these rankings. But we wanted to examine where things are right now. How much value have some teams added? How much have some teams lost?
To measure that, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL. Think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.
After that, I went through every transaction made this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 25). Since I’m only looking at how these moves affect each team for the 2025 season, my model does not factor in the length of the contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players changing teams. Players who re-signed with their teams aren’t included because those players’ values were already included in their teams’ projections.
With that explanation out of the way, here’s a look at how many expected points each NFL team had added or lost this offseason.
Five Biggest Winners
Las Vegas Raiders
I’m not sure how any list doesn’t include the Raiders at the top, or at the very least inside the top three, after landing Smith. The Raiders roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot, especially in the vaunted AFC West, but they’ve solidified the sport’s most important position with a quarterback who has proven he can give you a solid floor as a league-average QB with the ability for more. And with quarterback (presumably) locked down for the next few seasons, new coach Pete Carroll can focus on acquiring talent to fill out the rest of the roster.
New York Giants
The Giants were wise not to stop addressing the QB position after signing Jameis Winston last week. He now becomes their backup with the newly signed Russell Wilson leading the charge into 2025. Now we’ll see if they want to add a rookie to the mix in April. Beyond their solid start at QB, the Giants made some nice moves on defense by adding safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo while improving the depth of their front seven. The Giants weren’t a QB away from anything significant, but they’ve quietly done a good job fortifying the roster at a position they still need to find a long-term answer for.
New England Patriots
The Patriots continued their free-agent spending spree Tuesday night, adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a receiving group that needed a No. 1. After that splash signing, finishing third in these rankings might seem low. And maybe it is. It probably boils down to what you think of Harold Landry III as an edge rusher. My model thinks Landry is just fine — and that’s not a bad thing. Having average players on the roster can be good if you can put stars around them. Factor in Landry’s familiarity with new head coach Mike Vrabel, and you understand why New England made the move. Offensive tackle Morgan Moses and defensive tackle Milton Williams are the other additions my model likes, and if you think Landry will be better in this new system, you can easily make an argument for the Patriots jumping the Giants in these rankings and even threatening the Raiders for the top spot.
Indianapolis Colts
My model loved the Charvarius Ward signing, grading it as one of the most impactful moves made this offseason not involving a quarterback. While there is some risk — Ward is 28 years old — a change of scenery might be what just what the veteran cornerback needs to return to form as one of the best defensive backs in the league. Pair the Ward signing with the addition of safety Cam Bynum, and the Colts have done an excellent job of upgrading a secondary that badly needed one.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders made their splashes on the trade market rather than in free agency, and my model liked what they did. Laremy Tunsil remains one of the better left tackles in the league, and that was a position where Washington needed an upgrade. Meanwhile, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. should fit into this Washington offense with his versatility, pairing well with the skill set of QB Jayden Daniels. Adding cornerback Jonathan Jones was another interesting move and one that my model liked. He’s up there in age (31) and didn’t have the greatest 2024 season, but if he bounces back in any way, watch out for the Commanders (again) this season.
Five Biggest Losers
New York Jets
The loss of Rodgers might be offset by the addition of Justin Fields, but there were still some major losses here. Davante Adams remains a very good wide receiver, despite getting up there in age; Moses is still a quality tackle; and the biggest loss, according to my projections, is D.J. Reed. Reed has been a quality cornerback for a while, and he’s going to be difficult to replace. I don’t necessarily disagree with letting these players walk, given the state of the roster and the price tags it would have taken to keep them in town, but there’s no debate the Jets lost some top talent this offseason.
San Francisco 49ers
This ranking shouldn’t come as a surprise to those tracking San Francisco’s offseason, which has seen a mass exodus of quality players. I already spoke about how much my model likes Ward, but the 49ers also lost Samuel, Jordan Mason, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Isaac Yiadom, among others. Maybe that’s the price of doing business after paying running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk ahead of of a new contract for quarterback Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are in the middle of a transitional period, and the state of their roster shows it.
Philadelphia Eagles
One of the byproducts of winning the Super Bowl, or just being consistently competitive in the NFL, is that players on your team earn significant raises. That’s just the way it goes. Last year, the Eagles and Chiefs were near the bottom of this list after the early part of free agency, and both reached the Super Bowl, so all hope isn’t lost in Philadelphia, especially with so much talent still on the roster. But no matter how you shake it, Philadelphia will be looking to replace a lot of snaps from this year’s championship-winning squad as Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay Jr., C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers are all gone.
Dallas Cowboys
Staying in the NFC East here, the Cowboys will again be looking to primarily bolster their roster through the draft, which they’re pretty decent at, rather than free agency. The losses of DeMarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis, and Chauncey Golston are daunting (though letting Lewis walk after one of his best seasons isn’t the worst decision), and the loss of Zack Martin to retirement will sting. He was certainly past his peak, but he was still a quality offensive lineman, and those are always hard to find.
Seattle Seahawks
What did you expect after they traded away their starting quarterback and a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver? If it’s any consolation to Seahawks fans, it’s impressive they aren’t last on this list. That’s because they replaced Smith and DK Metcalf with Darnold and Cooper Kupp to help offset those losses, while adding Lawrence to their defense. The model is skeptical Darnold can replicate his success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are past their primes and have some injury concerns, so it’s no surprise the Seahawks still rank near the bottom.
(Photos of John Lynch, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith: Ezra Shaw and Tom Hauck / Getty Images)
Sports
Philip Rivers’ former teammate expresses one concern he has with 44-year-old’s return to Colts
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There is a good chance Philip Rivers sees some action on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts take on the Seattle Seahawks in a must-win game for the AFC South team.
Rivers, 44, joined the Colts earlier this week as the team deals with a quarterback crisis. The potential Hall of Famer hasn’t played since the 2020 season, but when the Colts needed him the most, he answered the call and dove into a playbook to get game ready.
But what can any NFL fan think Rivers is going to provide for the Colts at 44? He’s changed so much since the 2020 season, as his opponents on the field. The Seahawks also have one of the best defenses in the league.
Shawne Merriman #56 of the San Diego Chargers walks on the sideline in the game against the Seattle Seahawks on Aug. 15, 2009 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. (Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Shawne Merriman, Rivers’ former teammate, told Fox News Digital that he expected him to play well but was concerned about one thing.
“It’s a tough week for him to get back. But I’ll tell you this, Phil’s upside was never his athleticism. It was always his competitiveness,” he said. “He’s the most competitive player I’ve ever played with, that’s one. And two, it was his preparation and his mental and his knowledge of the game of football. Those two things would always got Philip to be that elite quarterback. It was that. So, it’s not gonna be that much different as far as him moving around the pocket.
“The concern I do have is you can’t replicate football without playing it. So, you can have a coach out there, I’m sure he was throwing the football around with his high school kids. I’m sure that he was working out, but you can’t replicate football. So, I think he’s gonna go out there and look good. I think he’s gonna go out there and actually look like he did five years ago.”
When the rumors started that Rivers was potentially going to come to Indianapolis for a workout, Merriman said he wasn’t surprised.
Philip Rivers #17 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks for an open receiver during the third quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
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The former San Diego Chargers star said when he spoke to Rivers during Antonio Gates’ Hall of Fame induction ceremony, it didn’t feel like the quarterback was completely finished with the game.
“I wasn’t shocked. And, this is why – a couple of years ago, I put on Twitter that Phil was still ready to play and this was I think in 2023,” he said. “And everybody’s like, ‘What? Well, yeah, right.’ He’s been gone out of the game I think three years at that point and then literally a week later or two, it pops up that the San Francisco 49ers, their quarterback situation with all their injuries, that they were thinking about bringing in Philip. And I said, I told you.
“I had a conversation with Philip and he didn’t say, ‘Oh, I’m coming back to play,’ but when you talked to him, it sounded like he was ready. It sounded like he was talking about the game in the present moment.”
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Merriman said he got together with Rivers and Drew Brees during Antonio Gates’ Hall of Fame induction ceremony and it didn’t like Rivers was exactly finished with football.
“So, I’m not surprised at all and it’s the right decision by the Indianapolis Colts.”
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Sports
UCLA’s Donovan Dent could be rounding into form just in time for Gonzaga showdown
Sometimes even Donovan Dent needs to be told he’s Donovan Dent.
“I just keep reminding him of who he is,” Skyy Clark said of his message to his UCLA teammate who has been pushing through a tough opening stretch as a Bruin.
The most highly coveted point guard in the transfer portal, Dent arrived on campus with the pedigree of an All-American honorable mention who was expected to immediately elevate his new team. Among his many talents were strong three-point shooting and an ability to blow by defenders to the rim.
He’s been looking more like that version of himself the last few games after a slow, injury-marred first month, a trajectory the No. 25 Bruins (7-2) will need to continue Saturday night at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle if they hope to beat No. 8 Gonzaga (9-1).
“He’s been showing a lot of flashes of who he is as a person, as a player, and we’re all rooting for him,” Clark said. “I think it’s only going to get better.”
Having a week between games might help. UCLA coach Mick Cronin said he’s been working with Dent on his shooting form, which curiously has been an issue for someone who made 40.9% of his three-pointers and 78.4% of his free throws last season at New Mexico.
Those numbers have dipped considerably, Dent making just one of 13 three-pointers (7.7%) to go with 62.8% of his free throws. He barely was making half of his free throws before a recent stretch in which he’s converted 10 of 13.
Perhaps the biggest concern has been Dent’s inability to embarrass defenders like he did as a Lobo.
UCLA guard Donovan Dent drives to the basket against Oregon forward Dezdrick Lindsay, left, and center Ege Demir, right, during the Bruins’ 74-63 win on Dec. 6.
(Jessie Alcheh / Associated Press)
“In the Mountain West, he was able to get to the rim in a way that he’s not able to get to the rim at our level, it’s just not going to happen,” Cronin said. “At the high level, it’s really hard. You can’t finish on some of the big guys you could finish on in that league — maybe in the bottom half of the league, you could just take everybody to the rim. First of all, they allow you to bump the dribbler; it’s more physical the higher up you go — it just is. It’s not a knock on it, it’s just the way it is. You know, the Power Four leagues now plus the Big East, the physicality is amazing.
“And in the NBA you can’t blow on a guy, but in college, it’s physical, and that’s what people try to do is beat him up, that’s the game plan. And everybody has the same game plan, like, we know, we talk to people, be physical, beat him up, be as physical as you can with him.”
Cronin said he’s been encouraged by what he’s seen over the last two games, in which Dent averaged 15 points and 5.5 assists with 3.0 turnovers while leading the Bruins to victories over Washington and Oregon. He’s also put abdominal and lower-leg injuries behind him.
That’s not to say that Dent can’t boost his game another notch or two.
“He’s got to have more confidence in his three-point shot, his pull-up shot and focusing on his defense on the ball, using his quickness for that,” Cronin said. “So there’s just different ways he can affect the game, which is going to be [key] for him to have a [professional] career anyway. He’s been pushing through it, he’s been working on it, I thought the last couple of games his effort’s been great.”
If Dent needed a template for perseverance amid high expectations as a transfer, he could find it in Clark. After arriving from Louisville, Clark struggled with his shooting and never scored in double figures over his first nine games as a Bruin.
Then came a 15-point breakthrough against Arizona in mid-December and an 11-point, nine-rebound, seven-assist showing two weeks later in a victory over Gonzaga.
“I had a slow start last year when I first came here and then as the season went on it started to get a little [better],” Clark said. “So, I just keep telling him about that and keep sticking with it.”
Money matters
Cronin said UCLA raised more money playing in neutral-site games against Arizona, California and Gonzaga than it would have by participating in the Players Era Festival.
“They raise money for our program to buy players,” Cronin said of neutral-site games with a laugh. “I mean, everybody else can talk about recruiting, you know, write about why kids pick schools — I don’t have time for it. I’m too old, I’ve done enough, it’s comical. We’re semipro, our guys do go to school, [but] guys pick schools because they get paid, so these neutral-site games help raise money. So next spring, when we sign a guy in the portal and you go interview him and he tells you he really bonded with me, and I’ve known him for two weeks,” you’ll know why he signed.
Etc.
Cronin, on the scheduled 8:30 p.m. start time against Gonzaga: “I mean, it’s ridiculous. I mean, why don’t we just play at midnight? … My dad’s real happy about it. He’s 84, he’s gonna have to take two naps on Saturday to be able to watch us play Saturday night.” … Cronin said the Bruins would honor UCLA alumnus Dave Roberts, manager of the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers, at a home game this season. … Six years after he uprooted his family from Cincinnati, Cronin said he would be happy to assist new UCLA football coach Bob Chesney with the logistics of moving across the country to Los Angeles: “I don’t know anything about football, but I can help him on where to live and just have his wife call us, we’ll help her.”
Sports
Sherrone Moore’s alleged mistress reportedly received massive pay raise in 2025
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The alleged mistress of former Michigan football head coach Sherrone Moore received a massive pay bump between 2024 and 2025.
The individual allegedly linked to Moore, whose LinkedIn profile lists her as an Executive Assistant to the Head Football Coach at the University of Michigan, earned just over $58,000 in 2023 and 2024, according to public payroll information. In the 2025 fiscal year, though, her salary jumped to $99,000, according to a salary disclosure report from the University of Michigan.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore leaves the field following the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan on Nov. 29, 2025. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images)
That’s a 70.62 percent increase year-over-year — even higher than the figure circulating social media right now via UMSalary.info.
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As OutKick’s Trey Wallace reported, Moore was fired with cause on Wednesday in his second season as the Wolverines’ head coach. The move came after an investigation surrounding Moore’s alleged “inappropriate relationship” with a staffer.
And it’s hard to imagine the massive salary bump she received didn’t raise some eyebrows within the department.
“U-M head football coach Sherrone Moore has been terminated, with cause, effective immediately,” Michigan Athletic Director Warde Manual announced on Wednesday. “Following a university investigation, credible evidence was found that Coach Moore engaged in an inappropriate relationship with a staff member. This conduct constitutes a clear violation of University policy, and U-M maintains zero tolerance for such behavior.”
Michigan football head coach Sherrone Moore reacts from the sideline during a college football game against the USC Trojans at Michigan Stadium on Sept. 21, 2024 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
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Less than an hour after his termination, police were called to a residence to detain the former coach under possible assault charges. Moore allegedly threatened to harm himself and others before being taken into custody.
As of Thursday afternoon, Moore is being held at Washtenaw County Jail. No charges have been filed yet, but he is expected to appear in court on Friday to be arraigned, according to Pittsfield Township police department.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore is shown on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland, on Nov. 22, 2025. (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)
OutKick reached out to the University of Michigan and its athletic department regarding the staffer’s 70 percent pay raise, but they didn’t immediately respond.
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