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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

The NFL offseason is well underway, and while the upcoming NFL Draft will shake things up even more, there has been no shortage of roster-altering moves. The biggest, of course, have come at quarterback. We’re still waiting for one big domino (Aaron Rodgers) to fall, but we’ve already seen huge shifts in the QB landscape. No. 1, of course, was the Seattle Seahawks trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders before signing former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to be their new signal caller.

How did those moves, and all of the others made so far this offseason, affect their teams’ outlooks for the 2025 season? It’s a bit like asking: Who have been the biggest winners and losers of the offseason so far? We’re going to attempt to answer that analytically using our NFL Projection Model.

Before we get there, it bears repeating: A lot can change. Teams have plenty of time to alter their standing in these rankings. But we wanted to examine where things are right now. How much value have some teams added? How much have some teams lost?

To measure that, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL. Think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.

After that, I went through every transaction made this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 25). Since I’m only looking at how these moves affect each team for the 2025 season, my model does not factor in the length of the contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players changing teams. Players who re-signed with their teams aren’t included because those players’ values were already included in their teams’ projections.

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With that explanation out of the way, here’s a look at how many expected points each NFL team had added or lost this offseason.

Five Biggest Winners

Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not sure how any list doesn’t include the Raiders at the top, or at the very least inside the top three, after landing Smith. The Raiders roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot, especially in the vaunted AFC West, but they’ve solidified the sport’s most important position with a quarterback who has proven he can give you a solid floor as a league-average QB with the ability for more. And with quarterback (presumably) locked down for the next few seasons, new coach Pete Carroll can focus on acquiring talent to fill out the rest of the roster.

New York Giants

The Giants were wise not to stop addressing the QB position after signing Jameis Winston last week. He now becomes their backup with the newly signed Russell Wilson leading the charge into 2025. Now we’ll see if they want to add a rookie to the mix in April. Beyond their solid start at QB, the Giants made some nice moves on defense by adding safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo while improving the depth of their front seven. The Giants weren’t a QB away from anything significant, but they’ve quietly done a good job fortifying the roster at a position they still need to find a long-term answer for.

New England Patriots

The Patriots continued their free-agent spending spree Tuesday night, adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a receiving group that needed a No. 1. After that splash signing, finishing third in these rankings might seem low. And maybe it is. It probably boils down to what you think of Harold Landry III as an edge rusher. My model thinks Landry is just fine — and that’s not a bad thing. Having average players on the roster can be good if you can put stars around them. Factor in Landry’s familiarity with new head coach Mike Vrabel, and you understand why New England made the move. Offensive tackle Morgan Moses and defensive tackle Milton Williams are the other additions my model likes, and if you think Landry will be better in this new system, you can easily make an argument for the Patriots jumping the Giants in these rankings and even threatening the Raiders for the top spot.

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Indianapolis Colts

My model loved the Charvarius Ward signing, grading it as one of the most impactful moves made this offseason not involving a quarterback. While there is some risk — Ward is 28 years old — a change of scenery might be what just what the veteran cornerback needs to return to form as one of the best defensive backs in the league. Pair the Ward signing with the addition of safety Cam Bynum, and the Colts have done an excellent job of upgrading a secondary that badly needed one.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders made their splashes on the trade market rather than in free agency, and my model liked what they did. Laremy Tunsil remains one of the better left tackles in the league, and that was a position where Washington needed an upgrade. Meanwhile, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. should fit into this Washington offense with his versatility, pairing well with the skill set of QB Jayden Daniels. Adding cornerback Jonathan Jones was another interesting move and one that my model liked. He’s up there in age (31) and didn’t have the greatest 2024 season, but if he bounces back in any way, watch out for the Commanders (again) this season.

Five Biggest Losers

New York Jets

The loss of Rodgers might be offset by the addition of Justin Fields, but there were still some major losses here. Davante Adams remains a very good wide receiver, despite getting up there in age; Moses is still a quality tackle; and the biggest loss, according to my projections, is D.J. Reed. Reed has been a quality cornerback for a while, and he’s going to be difficult to replace. I don’t necessarily disagree with letting these players walk, given the state of the roster and the price tags it would have taken to keep them in town, but there’s no debate the Jets lost some top talent this offseason.

San Francisco 49ers

This ranking shouldn’t come as a surprise to those tracking San Francisco’s offseason, which has seen a mass exodus of quality players. I already spoke about how much my model likes Ward, but the 49ers also lost Samuel, Jordan Mason, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Isaac Yiadom, among others. Maybe that’s the price of doing business after paying running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk ahead of of a new contract for quarterback Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are in the middle of a transitional period, and the state of their roster shows it.

Philadelphia Eagles

One of the byproducts of winning the Super Bowl, or just being consistently competitive in the NFL, is that players on your team earn significant raises. That’s just the way it goes. Last year, the Eagles and Chiefs were near the bottom of this list after the early part of free agency, and both reached the Super Bowl, so all hope isn’t lost in Philadelphia, especially with so much talent still on the roster. But no matter how you shake it, Philadelphia will be looking to replace a lot of snaps from this year’s championship-winning squad as Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay Jr., C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers are all gone.

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Dallas Cowboys

Staying in the NFC East here, the Cowboys will again be looking to primarily bolster their roster through the draft, which they’re pretty decent at, rather than free agency. The losses of DeMarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis, and Chauncey Golston are daunting (though letting Lewis walk after one of his best seasons isn’t the worst decision), and the loss of Zack Martin to retirement will sting. He was certainly past his peak, but he was still a quality offensive lineman, and those are always hard to find.

Seattle Seahawks

What did you expect after they traded away their starting quarterback and a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver? If it’s any consolation to Seahawks fans, it’s impressive they aren’t last on this list. That’s because they replaced Smith and DK Metcalf with Darnold and Cooper Kupp to help offset those losses, while adding Lawrence to their defense. The model is skeptical Darnold can replicate his success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are past their primes and have some injury concerns, so it’s no surprise the Seahawks still rank near the bottom.

(Photos of John Lynch, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith: Ezra Shaw and Tom Hauck / Getty Images)

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What we’re hearing about John Tortorella’s final days with the Flyers

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What we’re hearing about John Tortorella’s final days with the Flyers

An incident between John Tortorella and Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Cam York this week contributed to a deteriorating relationship between coach and team that led to Tortorella’s firing on Thursday morning, a team source said.

The source said that after Tortorella benched York for the final 50 minutes of the Flyers’ game on Tuesday at Toronto, a confrontation took place between the two that did not turn physical but that “they probably both crossed the line.”

As a result, York was functionally scratched on Thursday in a victory over the Montreal Canadiens, although he sat on the bench for the entire game because the Flyers had no healthy extra players. Interim coach Brad Shaw called it a “disciplinary issue,” and the team source said the decision to sit York was made by general manager Daniel Briere, who felt the team needed to make a point with York — who is expected to return to the lineup on Saturday.

But he won’t be playing under Tortorella, who has not responded to multiple interview requests from The Athletic since his firing.

The disagreement with York, and subsequent comments that Tortorella made after the game, contributed to the coach’s firing on Thursday morning. But those two events were not isolated. Something began to shift around the trade deadline on March 7, according to the team source.

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Up until then, Tortorella seemed to be on board with the moves that Briere made, as the Flyers traded respected leaders Scott Laughton and Erik Johnson, further reducing a roster that had lost top-nine forwards Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee about a month earlier. But there was a heaviness around the team stemming from some of Tortorella’s reactions in the days and weeks that followed.

A disconnect started to grow between Tortorella, the team and Flyers management, culminating on Tuesday in Toronto, where the coach’s postgame comments didn’t help his cause, either, according to the team source.

As colleague Pierre LeBrun reported on Friday morning, the timing of Tortorella’s dismissal “was surprising. The indication from the Flyers earlier this week was that they wanted to sit down after the season with the 66-year-old coach, who had another year on his deal, to see where he was at, mentally and physically.”

Shaw said on Friday that Tortorella “left a note in our (coaches) room and in the players’ room when he came and got his stuff. That’s the type of guy he is.”

There had seemingly been tension bubbling between Tortorella and York for the past few weeks. York was made a healthy scratch for a game on March 8, and later bemoaned the lack of communication from the coach.

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“We haven’t talked much, so I’m not sure,” he told reporters two days later, when asked why he thought he was scratched.

He also added: “I mean, I’m not playing to prove him anything. I’m playing for the guys in this locker room and the logo on my chest. I’m not playing for him, necessarily, if that makes sense.”

On Friday, speaking for the first time since being benched and then punished, York said:  “I’m not going to get into the details of it. I will say this, I take full responsibility for my actions. It’s been addressed here in the locker room. It’s something that I’m going to put behind me and move on from. We’ve got eight games left here and that’s my focus right now. We’ll leave it at that.”

Still, he admitted frustration with watching the team get shellacked 7-2 by the Maple Leafs, as they had only five defensemen playing for the majority of the game at the end of a 10-day road trip.

“Obviously, sitting on the bench there in that type of game is never fun,” he said.  “Five (defensemen) is a tough thing to do and you never want to put your teammates in that type of situation.”

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Shaw was asked whether he would do something like bench a player for 50 minutes, as Tortorella did on Tuesday.

“I’m not going to get into that,” he said. “I don’t want to answer a question that can be used against Torts. I don’t think it’s anybody’s best interests, so I’d rather not answer that.”

In 58 games this season, York has four goals and 11 assists for 15 points. The 24-year-old is a pending restricted free agent. There were discussions about a contract extension earlier in the season, but not much progress made.

York reiterated his desire to be a part of the Flyers’ future on Friday.

“This is where I want to be,” York said. “I’ve stated that. I love what’s going on here and I love what we’re building. It hasn’t been our (best) year, but it’s here. This is where I want to be, and I’m looking forward to the future.”

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Regarding Tortorella, York said: “I have nothing bad to say. He taught me a lot of really good things and was a really good coach for me. I’m going to use a lot of the things that he taught me down the road in my career. He’s a really good coach, and I wish him the best of luck down the road.”

(Photo: Robert Edwards / Imagn Images)

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NBA great Shaquille O'Neal's son Shaqir leaving Florida A&M and transferring again: report

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NBA great Shaquille O'Neal's son Shaqir leaving Florida A&M and transferring again: report

Shaqir O’Neal, the son of basketball Hall of Famer Shaquille O’Neal, has made a big decision about his basketball future. 

Shaqir is leaving Florida A&M and entering the NCAA transfer portal, On3 reported. 

The junior forward averaged 6.7 points and 3.4 rebounds per game during the 2024-25 season with the Rattlers.

Florida A&M Rattlers forward Shaqir O’Neal against the Florida Gators during the first half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center in Gainesville, Fla., Nov. 19, 2024. (Morgan Tencza/Imagn Images)

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If he does transfer, O’Neal would finish his career in Tallahassee having started 17 of 29 games.

BROOME, AUBURN FLEX THEIR MUSCLES IN SWEET 16 WIN OVER MICHIGAN

This wouldn’t be the first time in O’Neal’s college basketball career he’s switched schools. He transferred to Florida A&M after a two-year stint at Texas Southern.

Trevin Knell

Trevin Knell (21) of the Brigham Young Cougars pressures Shaqir O’Neal (8) of the Florida A&M Rattlers as he drives to the basket during the first half of a game at the Marriott Center Dec. 20, 2024, in Provo, Utah. (Chris Gardner/Getty Images)

O’Neal appeared in 41 games during his time with the Tigers, starting in two games. He was listed as a three-star high school recruit, according to his bio on Florida A&M’s athletics website.

Basketball runs deep in the O’Neal family. 

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Shaq signs basketball

Shaquille O’Neal smiles before a game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Lakers as part of the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament Dec. 7, 2023, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.  (Mike Kirschbaum/NBAE via Getty Images)

Shaq won four NBA championships and was a 15-time All-Star during his storied career. His other son, Shaereef, played at UCLA and LSU before a stint in the NBA G League.

In 2023, Shaq’s youngest child, Me’Arah O’Neal, signed her national letter of intent to play for the Florida Gators. She made her debut with Florida during the 2024-25 season and recorded a career-high 19 points in a game against Arkansas in February.

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Hernández: Roki Sasaki isn't an instant star. But the Dodgers don't need him to be one

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Hernández: Roki Sasaki isn't an instant star. But the Dodgers don't need him to be one

Roki Sasaki chose right when he signed with the Dodgers.

Never mind not being ready to lead the rotation of another team and challenge Shohei Ohtani. The 23-year-old Sasaki doesn’t look ready to pitch in the major leagues.

Sasaki made his second start for the Dodgers on Saturday night, and it was somehow worse than his first. He didn’t make it out of the second inning of a 7-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers at Dodger Stadium, his control problems even more pronounced than they were in his debut in Tokyo.

He recorded only five outs. He walked four. He was charged with three hits and two runs. Of the 61 pitches he threw, only 32 were strikes.

This disheartening start to his major league career — he walked five batters in three innings in his previous start against the Chicago Cubs — shouldn’t sound any alarm bells, but that’s only because he’s playing for the Dodgers.

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If Sasaki needs another start or two to get acclimated to the pitch clock or low-quality American baseballs, the Dodgers can afford to give them to him.

If he needs to spend time refining his delivery in the minor leagues, the Dodgers have the necessary depth to cover his absence.

Sasaki won’t have a rookie season like Fernando Valenzuela’s or Dwight Gooden’s, but the Dodgers don’t need him to. The Dodgers are World Series favorites with or without him, and they have the luxury of treating him as if he’s a prospect without compromising their championship ambitions.

Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki delivers during his Dodger Stadium debut on Saturday night.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

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His circumstances would be completely different if he’d signed with another team. On the San Diego Padres, he probably would have started the season as the No. 3 starter. Him pitching like this would have erased whatever chance the Padres had of dethroning the Dodgers in the National League West. The pressure to perform would be greater by several orders of magnitude.

However, there is a downside to not being needed, as Sasaki is with the Dodgers, which is that a player can be forgotten. Around this time last year, Bobby Miller was viewed as a star in the making. Miller didn’t have the season the Dodgers envisioned, as his performance declined and his health failed him. He started this season with the franchise’s triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City.

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