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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

The NFL offseason is well underway, and while the upcoming NFL Draft will shake things up even more, there has been no shortage of roster-altering moves. The biggest, of course, have come at quarterback. We’re still waiting for one big domino (Aaron Rodgers) to fall, but we’ve already seen huge shifts in the QB landscape. No. 1, of course, was the Seattle Seahawks trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders before signing former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to be their new signal caller.

How did those moves, and all of the others made so far this offseason, affect their teams’ outlooks for the 2025 season? It’s a bit like asking: Who have been the biggest winners and losers of the offseason so far? We’re going to attempt to answer that analytically using our NFL Projection Model.

Before we get there, it bears repeating: A lot can change. Teams have plenty of time to alter their standing in these rankings. But we wanted to examine where things are right now. How much value have some teams added? How much have some teams lost?

To measure that, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL. Think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.

After that, I went through every transaction made this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 25). Since I’m only looking at how these moves affect each team for the 2025 season, my model does not factor in the length of the contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players changing teams. Players who re-signed with their teams aren’t included because those players’ values were already included in their teams’ projections.

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With that explanation out of the way, here’s a look at how many expected points each NFL team had added or lost this offseason.

Five Biggest Winners

Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not sure how any list doesn’t include the Raiders at the top, or at the very least inside the top three, after landing Smith. The Raiders roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot, especially in the vaunted AFC West, but they’ve solidified the sport’s most important position with a quarterback who has proven he can give you a solid floor as a league-average QB with the ability for more. And with quarterback (presumably) locked down for the next few seasons, new coach Pete Carroll can focus on acquiring talent to fill out the rest of the roster.

New York Giants

The Giants were wise not to stop addressing the QB position after signing Jameis Winston last week. He now becomes their backup with the newly signed Russell Wilson leading the charge into 2025. Now we’ll see if they want to add a rookie to the mix in April. Beyond their solid start at QB, the Giants made some nice moves on defense by adding safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo while improving the depth of their front seven. The Giants weren’t a QB away from anything significant, but they’ve quietly done a good job fortifying the roster at a position they still need to find a long-term answer for.

New England Patriots

The Patriots continued their free-agent spending spree Tuesday night, adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a receiving group that needed a No. 1. After that splash signing, finishing third in these rankings might seem low. And maybe it is. It probably boils down to what you think of Harold Landry III as an edge rusher. My model thinks Landry is just fine — and that’s not a bad thing. Having average players on the roster can be good if you can put stars around them. Factor in Landry’s familiarity with new head coach Mike Vrabel, and you understand why New England made the move. Offensive tackle Morgan Moses and defensive tackle Milton Williams are the other additions my model likes, and if you think Landry will be better in this new system, you can easily make an argument for the Patriots jumping the Giants in these rankings and even threatening the Raiders for the top spot.

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Indianapolis Colts

My model loved the Charvarius Ward signing, grading it as one of the most impactful moves made this offseason not involving a quarterback. While there is some risk — Ward is 28 years old — a change of scenery might be what just what the veteran cornerback needs to return to form as one of the best defensive backs in the league. Pair the Ward signing with the addition of safety Cam Bynum, and the Colts have done an excellent job of upgrading a secondary that badly needed one.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders made their splashes on the trade market rather than in free agency, and my model liked what they did. Laremy Tunsil remains one of the better left tackles in the league, and that was a position where Washington needed an upgrade. Meanwhile, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. should fit into this Washington offense with his versatility, pairing well with the skill set of QB Jayden Daniels. Adding cornerback Jonathan Jones was another interesting move and one that my model liked. He’s up there in age (31) and didn’t have the greatest 2024 season, but if he bounces back in any way, watch out for the Commanders (again) this season.

Five Biggest Losers

New York Jets

The loss of Rodgers might be offset by the addition of Justin Fields, but there were still some major losses here. Davante Adams remains a very good wide receiver, despite getting up there in age; Moses is still a quality tackle; and the biggest loss, according to my projections, is D.J. Reed. Reed has been a quality cornerback for a while, and he’s going to be difficult to replace. I don’t necessarily disagree with letting these players walk, given the state of the roster and the price tags it would have taken to keep them in town, but there’s no debate the Jets lost some top talent this offseason.

San Francisco 49ers

This ranking shouldn’t come as a surprise to those tracking San Francisco’s offseason, which has seen a mass exodus of quality players. I already spoke about how much my model likes Ward, but the 49ers also lost Samuel, Jordan Mason, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Isaac Yiadom, among others. Maybe that’s the price of doing business after paying running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk ahead of of a new contract for quarterback Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are in the middle of a transitional period, and the state of their roster shows it.

Philadelphia Eagles

One of the byproducts of winning the Super Bowl, or just being consistently competitive in the NFL, is that players on your team earn significant raises. That’s just the way it goes. Last year, the Eagles and Chiefs were near the bottom of this list after the early part of free agency, and both reached the Super Bowl, so all hope isn’t lost in Philadelphia, especially with so much talent still on the roster. But no matter how you shake it, Philadelphia will be looking to replace a lot of snaps from this year’s championship-winning squad as Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay Jr., C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers are all gone.

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Dallas Cowboys

Staying in the NFC East here, the Cowboys will again be looking to primarily bolster their roster through the draft, which they’re pretty decent at, rather than free agency. The losses of DeMarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis, and Chauncey Golston are daunting (though letting Lewis walk after one of his best seasons isn’t the worst decision), and the loss of Zack Martin to retirement will sting. He was certainly past his peak, but he was still a quality offensive lineman, and those are always hard to find.

Seattle Seahawks

What did you expect after they traded away their starting quarterback and a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver? If it’s any consolation to Seahawks fans, it’s impressive they aren’t last on this list. That’s because they replaced Smith and DK Metcalf with Darnold and Cooper Kupp to help offset those losses, while adding Lawrence to their defense. The model is skeptical Darnold can replicate his success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are past their primes and have some injury concerns, so it’s no surprise the Seahawks still rank near the bottom.

(Photos of John Lynch, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith: Ezra Shaw and Tom Hauck / Getty Images)

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NFL Week 17 scores: AFC North, NFC South up for grabs as playoff picture almost complete

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NFL Week 17 scores: AFC North, NFC South up for grabs as playoff picture almost complete

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Only one more week of the 2025 NFL regular season remains, as Week 17 brought about some more playoff implications and even 2026 NFL Draft key positions.

The biggest takeaway from the slate of Week 17 is that two divisions in the NFL — the AFC North and NFC South — will be determined by whoever wins key matchups in Week 18.

First, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers getting upset by the Cleveland Browns at home, as Aaron Rodgers couldn’t find Marquez Valdes-Scantling on a controversial game-ending play in the end zone. That loss sets up the AFC North title game between the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, which is only possibly thanks to a road victory where Derrick Henry scored four touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers.

Then, despite both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers losing their respective matchups, the NFL tiebreakers make their Week 18 bout the NFC South title game.

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Aaron Rodgers of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts during the second quarter of the game against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field on Dec. 28, 2025, in Cleveland. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

And while everyone was focused on the NFL playoff picture, the two-game 4 o’clock slate gave us the New York Giants against the Las Vegas Raiders, the winner of which owning the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.

The Giants would’ve solidified the pick with a loss, but Jaxson Dart and the Giants’ offense blew out Geno Smith and the Raiders to relinquish the pick, which now belongs in Sin City.

NFL WEEK 16 SCORES: PLAYOFF PRESSURE LEADS TO THRILLING FINISHES ACROSS LEAGUE

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Here’s how every NFL game played out:

THURSDAY, DEC. 25

– DALLAS COWBOYS 30, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 23

– MINNESOTA VIKINGS 23, DETROIT LIONS 10

– DENVER BRONCOS 20, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 13

Dak Prescott (4) of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates after his team’s touchdown against the Washington Commanders in the second quarter of a game at Northwest Stadium on Dec. 25, 2025 in Landover, Maryland.  (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

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SATURDAY, DEC. 27

– HOUSTON TEXANS 20, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 16

– BALTIMORE RAVENS 41, GREEN BAY PACKERS 24

SUNDAY, DEC. 28

– CINCINNATI BENGALS 37, ARIZONA CARDINALS 14

– CLEVELAND BROWNS 13, PITTSBURGH STEELERS 7

– NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34, TENNESSEE TITANS 26

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– JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 17

– MIAMI DOLPHINS 20, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 17

– NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 42, NEW YORK JETS 10

– SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 27, CAROLINA PANTHERS 10

– NEW YORK GIANTS 34, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 10

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– PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 13, BUFFALO BILLS 12

– SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS-CHICAGO BEARS (TBD)

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MONDAY, DEC. 29

– LOS ANGELES RAMS-ATLANTA FALCONS (TBD)

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Bob Baffert horses dominate on opening day at Santa Anita

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Bob Baffert horses dominate on opening day at Santa Anita

Opening day at Santa Anita might have been delayed by two days because of heavy rain, but it was worth the wait for no other reason than to watch the stretch run of the $200,000 Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes.

And for trainer Bob Baffert, it was even better than that. Not only did Nysos and Nevada Beach run 1-2 for him Sunday in the thrilling Grade 2 Pincay, but he also captured the two Grade 1 races he entered, the La Brea with Usha and the Malibu with Goal Oriented.

It was the fourth time Baffert won three stakes on the same day at Santa Anita, including the same trio of races on opening day in 2022.

He was especially excited after the Pincay, and not just by what he saw on the track.

“You know what’s great?” Baffert said as he stood in the winner’s circle and motioned to the grandstand, which was crowded with an announced 41,962 fans, the largest opening day audience since 2016. “It’s great to see this place packed. Look, everybody came out. They’ll come out to see a good horse and everybody was on the apron for this one. And they saw a great horse race.

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“It was actually fun watching.”

Particularly for Baffert, who knew as the field turned into the stretch he couldn’t lose. Nysos, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile champion ridden by Flavien Prat, was on the inside of Nevada Beach, the Goodwood Stakes winner ridden by Juan Hernandez.

Nysos was the heavy 1-5 favorite, having lost only one of his seven lifetime races, but for at least a moment it looked as if he might not get past Nevada Beach, at 3 a year younger than his stablemate.

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But, in a virtual rerun of the Dirt Mile, when Prat and Nysos edged past Hernandez and another Baffert 3-year-old, Citizen Bull, the older horse once again prevailed, again by a head.

“I was close,” Hernandez said. “My horse ran really good. I was in front on the stretch for a couple of jumps and then it was just back and forth between Nysos and my horse. … He was giving me everything he had.”

The Grade 2 Pincay (formerly the San Antonio) was one of six stakes races on opening day, which is traditionally held the day after Christmas. It wasn’t one of the three Grade 1 races, but the presence of Nysos made it feel like the day’s main event.

Nysos returned $2.40 after running 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.36, the fastest since the Pincay was moved to that distance in 2017.

Baffert said in the leadup to the race that Nysos likely would start next in the $20-million Saudi Cup on Feb. 14 in Riyadh, while Nevada Beach was more apt to go to the $3-million Pegasus World Cup next month at Gulfstream Park. After the Pincay, he didn’t rule out sending both to Saudi Arabia.

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The only downside to Baffert’s stakes day was having to scratch Barnes and Cornucopian, the two morning-line favorites, from the Malibu. Barnes suffered a “minor setback” Saturday while Cornucopian had an incident in the paddock minutes before the race, which forced his withdrawal (he was uninjured).

No matter, though; Goal Oriented ($4.20) took over favoritism and earned his first stakes win, defeating stablemate Midland Money by a length in 1:20.97, the fastest Malibu since 2016.

“I’m just happy it turned out that we won it because it was so upsetting for a little bit,” Baffert said.

Usha ($13.20) was starting in a Grade 1 race for the first time, but she won the La Brea like a filly who has more victories in her future. She finished seven furlongs in a rapid 1:21.68 to beat 2-1 favorite Formula Rossa by 5¼ lengths.

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The first of the six stakes races was the $200,000 Mathis Mile for 3-year-olds on the turf. Tempus Volat, trained by Leonard Powell, led the race but was passed in the final yard by Hiding in Honduras ($21.40), a 9-1 long shot ridden by Antonio Fresu for Jonathan Thomas. Namaron, the 1-2 favorite ridden by Prat, finished third.

There was no such drama in the second turf stakes, the $100,000 San Gabriel, in which Cabo Spirit ($14.80), trained by George Papaprodromou, took the lead shortly after the start under Mike Smith and rolled to a 1¼-length victory over Astronomer. Stay Hot, the 2-1 favorite, lost a photo for third to Mondego.

The final race of the day was the other Grade 1 event, the $300,000 American Oaks, won by another Thomas trainee, Ambaya, a 12-1 long shot. The daughter of Ghostzapper was ridden by Kazushi Kimura, who picked up the mount when Fresu injured his ankle earlier in the day.

Etc.

The two cards that were rained out over the weekend will be made up Monday and Wednesday, with free parking and admission. Both days will offer two stakes races; Monday’s highlight is the $200,000 Joe Hernandez, which includes Motorious and Sumter, who were 1-2 in the race last year, and Imagination, last month’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up who will be racing on turf for the first time.

Rain is forecast beginning Wednesday, with track officials saying they will monitor the situation before deciding on how it will affect the racing, if at all. The schedule calls for racing Thursday through Sunday before Santa Anita begins its normal schedule of Fridays through Sundays on Jan. 9.

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Ravens quarterback hopes to provide words of encouragement to Shedeur Sanders before Browns-Steelers game

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Ravens quarterback hopes to provide words of encouragement to Shedeur Sanders before Browns-Steelers game

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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley said Saturday night he hoped to give Cleveland Browns rookie Shedeur Sanders a call before his game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Ravens defeated the Green Bay Packers to keep their playoff hopes alive and need the Browns to pull off an upset victory over the Steelers. If Pittsburgh wins, they clinch the AFC North division title and a spot in the playoffs. If the Browns win, then the division title and a playoff spot would come down to their Week 18 matchup.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (5) speaks during a press conference after an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers, Saturday, Dec. 27, 2025, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)

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“I’m trying to make it out of here, so I can call Shedeur really quick and make sure he gets it done,” Huntley told reporters, adding that he would probably watch the game at home.

Huntley was in Browns training camp when he, Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco were all vying for the starting job. Flacco ended up winning the job before he was traded in the middle of the season, while Pickett was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Huntley was cut and signed with the Ravens. Gabriel started a few games during the season and Sanders earned his own showcase to end the season.

The one-time Pro Bowler got to know Sanders in camp.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders looks to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the first half of an NFL football game in Cleveland, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/David Richard)

RAVENS RIDE DERRICK HENRY’S FOUR TOUCHDOWNS TO KEEP PLAYOFF HOPES ALIVE

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“Just when we got to the Browns. I knew of him, and he probably knew of me, but once we got to the Browns, we linked up a little bit,” Huntley added. “He’s a cool dude.”

Sanders and the Browns pulling off a win would be the marquee victory the young quarterback is looking for.

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ESPN noted that Deion Sanders, Shedeur’s father, intercepted a pass from Aaron Rodgers when the latter quarterback made an appearance for the Green Bay Packers in 2005. About 20 years later, Rodgers will compete against Sanders’ son in a pivotal matchup.

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