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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

The NFL offseason is well underway, and while the upcoming NFL Draft will shake things up even more, there has been no shortage of roster-altering moves. The biggest, of course, have come at quarterback. We’re still waiting for one big domino (Aaron Rodgers) to fall, but we’ve already seen huge shifts in the QB landscape. No. 1, of course, was the Seattle Seahawks trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders before signing former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to be their new signal caller.

How did those moves, and all of the others made so far this offseason, affect their teams’ outlooks for the 2025 season? It’s a bit like asking: Who have been the biggest winners and losers of the offseason so far? We’re going to attempt to answer that analytically using our NFL Projection Model.

Before we get there, it bears repeating: A lot can change. Teams have plenty of time to alter their standing in these rankings. But we wanted to examine where things are right now. How much value have some teams added? How much have some teams lost?

To measure that, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL. Think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.

After that, I went through every transaction made this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 25). Since I’m only looking at how these moves affect each team for the 2025 season, my model does not factor in the length of the contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players changing teams. Players who re-signed with their teams aren’t included because those players’ values were already included in their teams’ projections.

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With that explanation out of the way, here’s a look at how many expected points each NFL team had added or lost this offseason.

Five Biggest Winners

Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not sure how any list doesn’t include the Raiders at the top, or at the very least inside the top three, after landing Smith. The Raiders roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot, especially in the vaunted AFC West, but they’ve solidified the sport’s most important position with a quarterback who has proven he can give you a solid floor as a league-average QB with the ability for more. And with quarterback (presumably) locked down for the next few seasons, new coach Pete Carroll can focus on acquiring talent to fill out the rest of the roster.

New York Giants

The Giants were wise not to stop addressing the QB position after signing Jameis Winston last week. He now becomes their backup with the newly signed Russell Wilson leading the charge into 2025. Now we’ll see if they want to add a rookie to the mix in April. Beyond their solid start at QB, the Giants made some nice moves on defense by adding safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo while improving the depth of their front seven. The Giants weren’t a QB away from anything significant, but they’ve quietly done a good job fortifying the roster at a position they still need to find a long-term answer for.

New England Patriots

The Patriots continued their free-agent spending spree Tuesday night, adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a receiving group that needed a No. 1. After that splash signing, finishing third in these rankings might seem low. And maybe it is. It probably boils down to what you think of Harold Landry III as an edge rusher. My model thinks Landry is just fine — and that’s not a bad thing. Having average players on the roster can be good if you can put stars around them. Factor in Landry’s familiarity with new head coach Mike Vrabel, and you understand why New England made the move. Offensive tackle Morgan Moses and defensive tackle Milton Williams are the other additions my model likes, and if you think Landry will be better in this new system, you can easily make an argument for the Patriots jumping the Giants in these rankings and even threatening the Raiders for the top spot.

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Indianapolis Colts

My model loved the Charvarius Ward signing, grading it as one of the most impactful moves made this offseason not involving a quarterback. While there is some risk — Ward is 28 years old — a change of scenery might be what just what the veteran cornerback needs to return to form as one of the best defensive backs in the league. Pair the Ward signing with the addition of safety Cam Bynum, and the Colts have done an excellent job of upgrading a secondary that badly needed one.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders made their splashes on the trade market rather than in free agency, and my model liked what they did. Laremy Tunsil remains one of the better left tackles in the league, and that was a position where Washington needed an upgrade. Meanwhile, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. should fit into this Washington offense with his versatility, pairing well with the skill set of QB Jayden Daniels. Adding cornerback Jonathan Jones was another interesting move and one that my model liked. He’s up there in age (31) and didn’t have the greatest 2024 season, but if he bounces back in any way, watch out for the Commanders (again) this season.

Five Biggest Losers

New York Jets

The loss of Rodgers might be offset by the addition of Justin Fields, but there were still some major losses here. Davante Adams remains a very good wide receiver, despite getting up there in age; Moses is still a quality tackle; and the biggest loss, according to my projections, is D.J. Reed. Reed has been a quality cornerback for a while, and he’s going to be difficult to replace. I don’t necessarily disagree with letting these players walk, given the state of the roster and the price tags it would have taken to keep them in town, but there’s no debate the Jets lost some top talent this offseason.

San Francisco 49ers

This ranking shouldn’t come as a surprise to those tracking San Francisco’s offseason, which has seen a mass exodus of quality players. I already spoke about how much my model likes Ward, but the 49ers also lost Samuel, Jordan Mason, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Isaac Yiadom, among others. Maybe that’s the price of doing business after paying running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk ahead of of a new contract for quarterback Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are in the middle of a transitional period, and the state of their roster shows it.

Philadelphia Eagles

One of the byproducts of winning the Super Bowl, or just being consistently competitive in the NFL, is that players on your team earn significant raises. That’s just the way it goes. Last year, the Eagles and Chiefs were near the bottom of this list after the early part of free agency, and both reached the Super Bowl, so all hope isn’t lost in Philadelphia, especially with so much talent still on the roster. But no matter how you shake it, Philadelphia will be looking to replace a lot of snaps from this year’s championship-winning squad as Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay Jr., C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers are all gone.

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Dallas Cowboys

Staying in the NFC East here, the Cowboys will again be looking to primarily bolster their roster through the draft, which they’re pretty decent at, rather than free agency. The losses of DeMarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis, and Chauncey Golston are daunting (though letting Lewis walk after one of his best seasons isn’t the worst decision), and the loss of Zack Martin to retirement will sting. He was certainly past his peak, but he was still a quality offensive lineman, and those are always hard to find.

Seattle Seahawks

What did you expect after they traded away their starting quarterback and a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver? If it’s any consolation to Seahawks fans, it’s impressive they aren’t last on this list. That’s because they replaced Smith and DK Metcalf with Darnold and Cooper Kupp to help offset those losses, while adding Lawrence to their defense. The model is skeptical Darnold can replicate his success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are past their primes and have some injury concerns, so it’s no surprise the Seahawks still rank near the bottom.

(Photos of John Lynch, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith: Ezra Shaw and Tom Hauck / Getty Images)

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Nick Saban questions Texas A&M crowd noise before Aggies face Miami in playoff

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Nick Saban questions Texas A&M crowd noise before Aggies face Miami in playoff

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Despite dropping their regular-season finale to in-state rival Texas, the Texas A&M Aggies qualified for the College Football Playoff and earned the right to host a first-round game at Kyle Field.

Nick Saban, who won seven national championships during his storied coaching career, experienced his fair share of hostile environments on road trips. 

But the former Alabama coach and current ESPN college football analyst floated a surprising theory about how Texas A&M turns up the volume to try to keep opposing teams off balance.

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A view of the midfield logo before the game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field on Oct. 26, 2024 in College Station, Texas. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

While Saban did describe Kyle Field as one of the sport’s “noisiest” atmospheres, he also claimed the stadium’s operators have leaned on artificial crowd noise to pump up the volume during games.

CFP INTRIGUE RANKINGS: WHICH FIRST-ROUND GAMES HAVE THE BEST STORYLINES?

“I did more complaining to the SEC office—it was more than complaining that I don’t really want to say on this show—about this is the noisiest place. Plus, they pipe in noise… You can’t hear yourself think when you’re playing out there,” he told Pat McAfee on Thursday afternoon.

Adding crowd noise during games does not explicitly violate NCAA rules. However, the policy does mandate a certain level of consistency.

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A general view of Kyle Field before the start of the game between Texas A&M Aggies and the Alabama Crimson Tide at Kyle Field on Oct. 12, 2019 in College Station, Texas. (John Glaser/USA TODAY Sports)

According to the governing body’s rulebook: “Artificial crowd noise, by conference policy or mutual consent of the institutions, is allowed. The noise level must be consistent throughout the game for both teams. However, all current rules remain in effect dealing with bands, music and other sounds. When the snap is imminent, the band/music must stop playing. As with all administrative rules, the referee may stop the game and direct game management to adjust.”

General view of fans watch the play in the first half between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Ball State Cardinals at Kyle Field on Sept. 12, 2015 in College Station, Texas. (Scott Halleran/Getty Images)

Regardless of the possible presence of artificial noise, the Miami Hurricanes will likely face a raucous crowd when Saturday’s first-round CFP game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET.

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Veteran leadership and talent at the forefront of Chargers’ late-season surge

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Veteran leadership and talent at the forefront of Chargers’ late-season surge

Denzel Perryman quickly listed name after name as he dove deep into his mental roster of the 2015 Chargers.

Manti Teʻo, Melvin Ingram, Kavell Conner and Donald Butler took Perryman under their wing, the Chargers linebacker said. The 11-year veteran said he relied on older teammates when he entered the NFL as they helped him adjust to the schedule and regimen of professional football.

“When I was a young guy,” Perryman said, “my head was all over the place — just trying to get the gist of the NFL. They taught me how to be where my mind is.”

With the Chargers (10-4) entering the final stretch of the season and on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth heading into Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1), veterans have played an important role in the team winning six of its last seven games.

A win over the Cowboys coupled with either a loss or tie by the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon or an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie on Monday night would secure a playoff berth for the Chargers.

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Perryman, who recorded a season-best nine tackles in the Chargers’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs last week, credits Philip Rivers and the rest of the Chargers’ veterans for showing him “how to be a pro” a decade ago. Now he’s passing along those lessons to younger players in a transfer of generational knowledge across the Chargers’ locker room.

“When I came in as a young guy, I thought this happens every year,” safety Derwin James Jr. said of winning, starting his career on a 12-4 Chargers team in 2018. “Remember the standard. Remember, whatever we’re doing now, to uphold the standard, so that way, when guys change, coaches change, anything changes, the standard remains.”

Running off the field at Arrowhead Stadium, third-year safety Daiyan Henley charged at a celebrating Tony Jefferson, a veteran mentor at his position who was waiting for teammates after being ejected for an illegal hit on Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton.

After the game Jefferson and Henley hopped around like schoolchildren on the playground. That’s the atmosphere the veterans want to create, Jefferson said, one in which younger players in the secondary can turn to him.

“That’s what we’re here for,” Jefferson said. “For them to watch us and follow, follow our lead, and see how we do our thing.”

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It’s not just the veteran stars that are making a difference. Marcus Williams, a 29-year-old safety with 109 games of NFL experience, replaced Jefferson against the Chiefs after being elevated from the practice squad. The 2017 second-round pick played almost every snap in Jefferson’s place, collecting four tackles.

“That just starts with the culture coach [Jim] Harbaugh creates,” defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said. “It’s really a 70-man roster.”

Harbaugh highlighted defensive lineman/fullback Scott Matlock’s blocking technique — a ba-boop, ba-boop, as Harbaugh put it and mimed with his arms — on designed runs as an example of a veteran bolstering an offensive line trying to overcome the absence of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.

Harbaugh said his father, Jack, taught Matlock the ba-boop, ba-boop blocking technique during an August practice.

“He’s severely underrated as an athlete,” quarterback Justin Herbert said of the 6-foot-4, 296-pound Matlock, who also catches passes in the flat as a fullback.

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With three games left in the regular season, Jefferson said the focus is on replicating the postseason-like efforts they gave in consecutive wins over the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It was good that they were able to get a taste of that,” Jefferson said of his younger teammates playing against last season’s Super Bowl teams, “because these games down the stretch are really what’s to come in the playoffs.”

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Rams star Puka Nacua fined by NFL after renewed referee criticism and close loss to Seahawks

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Rams star Puka Nacua fined by NFL after renewed referee criticism and close loss to Seahawks

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Los Angeles Rams star wide receiver Puka Nacua’s tumultuous Thursday began with an apology and ended with more controversial remarks.

In between, he had a career-best performance. 

After catching 12 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Thursday’s overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Nacua once again expressed his frustration with how NFL referees handled the game.

Nacua previously suggested game officials shared similarities to attorneys. The remarks came after the third-year wideout claimed some referees throw flags during games to ramp up their camera time.

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Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium.  (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images)

After the Seahawks 38-37 win propelled Seattle to the top spot in the NFC standings, Nacua took a veiled shot at the game’s officials. 

“Can you say i was wrong. Appreciate you stripes for your contribution. Lol,” he wrote on X.

The Pro Bowler added that his statement on X was made in “a moment of frustration after a tough, intense game like that.”

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RAMS STAR PUKA NACUA ACCUSES REFS OF MAKING UP CALLS TO GET ON TV: ‘THE WORST’

“It was just a lack of awareness and just some frustration,” Nacua said. “I know there were moments where I feel like, ‘Man, you watch the other games and you think of the calls that some guys get and you wish you could get some of those.’ But that’s just how football has played, and I’ll do my job in order to work my technique to make sure that there’s not an issue with the call.”

But, this time, Nacua’s criticism resulted in a hefty fine. The league issued a $25,000 penalty, according to NFL Network. 

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) runs with the ball during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, in Seattle.  (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

Nacua had expressed aggravation on social media just days after the 24-year-old asserted during a livestream appearance with internet personalities Adin Ross and N3on that “the refs are the worst.”

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“Some of the rules aren’t … these guys want to be … these guys are lawyers. They want to be on TV too,” Nacua said, per ESPN. “You don’t think he’s texting his friends in the group chat like, ‘Yo, you guys just saw me on “Sunday Night Football.” That wasn’t P.I., but I called it.’”

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) scores a touchdown during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, in Seattle.  (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

On Thursday, reporters asked Nacua if he wanted to clarify his stance on the suggestion referees actively seek being in front of cameras during games. 

“No, I don’t,” he replied.

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Also on Thursday, Nacua apologized for performing a gesture that plays upon antisemitic tropes.

“I had no idea this act was antisemitic in nature and perpetuated harmful stereotypes against Jewish people,” the receiver said in an Instagram post. “I deeply apologize to anyone who was offended by my actions as I do not stand for any form of racism, bigotry or hate of another group of people.”

Rams coach Sean McVay dismissed the idea that all the off-field chatter surrounding Nacua was a distraction leading up to Los Angeles’ clash with its NFC West division rival. 

“It wasn’t a distraction at all,” McVay said. “Did you think his play showed he was distracted? I didn’t think so either. He went off today.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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