Sports
Lee Carsley lives for coaching – but anthem furore shows England job has another side to it
Lee Carsley was one of the first men out from the England dressing room, almost an hour before kick-off. He only had the England goalkeepers for company and he stood arms crossed in the middle of the pitch watching them work.
Eventually, the outfield players and the rest of the staff came out to join him. Carsley stood, arms behind his back, discussing the drills with Ashley Cole. But he wanted to get involved and so with just half an hour to go before his England tenure began, Carsley was there near a mountain of footballs, firing in passes to Kobbie Mainoo and Declan Rice so they could take the ball on the half-turn and drive forward.
Closer and closer to kick-off, Carsley was still out there working with his players. He would stand on the edge of the box, grappling with an attacking player who would then get past him and try to convert a cutback. Only with 20 minutes left before kick-off did Carsley run back into the England dressing room.
Carsley said on Friday, when explaining why he does not sing the national anthem, that in the period immediately before kick-off he is wary of his “mind wandering off” and that he is thinking obsessively about how the game will go and how the opposition will set up. Maybe that explains why he accidentally walked into the home rather than away dugout when he emerged from the tunnel.
Carsley initially sat in the Ireland seats (Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
But what is certainly clear is that Carsley lives for this stuff: the little details with players, the precise work of preparation, the tactical scenarios he might have to face. The characterisation of the old regime was that Gareth Southgate was the public-facing leader while Steve Holland oversaw the nuts and bolts of the football. Carsley, however, appears to relish the football minutiae more than anyone.
Even at half-time, you could see Carsley, before he went in to speak to his players, sat in the dugout with his iPad. He explained afterwards that this is where he keeps all of the notes he made during the long thinking time before the game. “If they change to a four, this is how we can build. If they change to a three, this is how we can build.” So he refreshed his memory on key tactical points before going in and giving his players a few key tactical messages, just two or three bullet points for them to take on board.
This is just one small aspect of what has been a fascinating first look at Carsley in his first game in the England job. This weekend has made clear that as much as Carsley might talk about how he wants to build on Southgate’s work — he was very keen to say this was not a “fresh start” — the reality is that he is his own man and will do things his own way.
There was a lot to like about the football England played in the first half, the small tweaks Carsley had made to his Southgate inheritance. Anthony Gordon played as a high and wide winger, running in behind, and his run led to England’s first goal. Declan Rice was released to go box-to-box thanks to Trent Alexander-Arnold shifting into midfield behind him. Rice scored the first goal and set up the second.
Goals from Rice and Grealish gave Carsley victory (Michael Regan – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)
Carsley denied that we were watching the launch of ‘Carsball’ and insisted that this was not his style, but rather that of the players, so they should receive the credit. And yet the fact is players did things today that they did not always do under Southgate — and Carsley is the man responsible for that.
This international window was always going to be a learning experience as Carsley stepped into the senior job for the first time. He looked as if he loved the occasion, saying it was the proudest day of his career. Just to see him crouched down in the technical area, you could see a man living every minute, trying to process every little detail in front of him on the pitch.
And if the England job was only about picking players, coaching, tactics and systems, then you might well say that Carsley was perfect for the job. Here is someone who understands the system, knows the players, and can now fine-tune the team into winners.
But the other lesson of this weekend is that there is another side to being England manager. It involves being the public face and voice of English football, expected to have a considered view on almost everything. It means being able to speak comfortably on endless non-football topics (you might remember the row about the amended St George’s cross on England’s collars) and at times having to choose your words very carefully under great pressure.
This was the side of the job Southgate was exceptional at, pitch-perfect on almost every topic, so much so that he swiftly became the spokesman for the soul of the national game. (No one expected Roy Hodgson or Fabio Capello to do this.) Carsley has only been in the job for one game but has already found himself at the centre of one big controversy over whether he will sing the national anthem.
He gave an honest, genuine and entirely justifiable answer to the question on Friday, but it was also the type of situation Southgate was so good at defusing. Instead, it made the front page of two national newspapers and the back of many others, with The Telegraph saying he “can’t expect to manage England” if he doesn’t sing the anthem and a columnist in fellow right-wing paper The Daily Mail calling for him to be sacked before kick-off. It feels as if this is the side of the job, being that public spokesman, with every word scrutinised, where Carsley will have to learn fast.
Carsley does seem to accept that this comes with the territory. He will also know there will be more issues like this down the line. “I think you’ve probably got to accept that with that (job) does come a bit of judgement,” he said when asked if the fuss was all worth it. “I don’t feel hard done by. We move forward.”
(Top photo: Carl Recine/Getty Images)
New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is just hitting his stride.
Lawrence made his second consecutive Pro Bowl appearance last year after racking up 4.5 sacks and 53 total tackles in 16 games for the Giants. However, after New York had a disappointing season, Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday is a chance to start fresh.
New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, #97, looks on before the game against the Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 11, 2023. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
“Really important having a fast start,” he told Fox News Digital days before the team took the field for their first regular-season game of 2024. “We preach that every day and I think the guys are buying in and having a good week of practice so far. So, I’m excited.”
The Giants have historically fielded great defenses with Michael Strahan, Lawrence Taylor, Justin Tuck – the names go on. Establishing a winning mindset starts at the top of the organization and trickles down and is reminded to the players at their practice facility.
It has been a few years since the Giants have been ranked in the top 10 in major defensive categories. It is up to Lawrence to lead the pack.
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New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, #97, slams into Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, #4, after the ball was released on Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023. (Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK)
“I think it starts with the players and helping everybody know the importance of every little detail and what it takes to win a game,” Lawrence said. “As leaders on this team, I think we’ve been doing a good job helping the guys understand the importance and cherish every moment that we get here.”
Lawrence earned Defensive Player of the Year votes last year as well.
With his star status rising, Lawrence partnered with Campbell’s Chunky for its Campbell’s Sacks Hunger program. For every sack made across the NFL, Chunky will donate 1,000 meals to feeding America.
He was flanked by cans of Campbell’s Chunky while talking to Fox News Digital.
New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, #97, talks to reporters after day two of training camp at the Quest Diagnostics Training Facility in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on July 27, 2023. (Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports)
“It’s exciting,” he said. “You grew up watching these commercials. My mom was a little upset she couldn’t be in but … you grew up watching this and dreaming of this one day and now you being a part of it seeing how it actually impacts the world and I think that’s why I’m really excited.”
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The 2024-25 sports season will have a group of elite girls competing in a variety of sports who are so talented they could push the elite boys to raise their own level of excellence. Southern California is filled with teenagers you’ll be reading about and seeing on television for years to come.
Let’s examine some of the athletes to watch for the new school year:
GIRLS
Scottlyn Antonucci, Etiwanda, soccer. She’s captain for the USA under-16 national team as a junior midfielder. Known as Scottie, she has a hybrid class schedule so she can have more time to train and travel. She made the decision to keep playing high school soccer. “I absolutely love high school soccer. My best friends are on the team,” she said. She has official recruiting visits to UCLA, North Carolina and Penn State.
Sierra Canyon’s Jerzy Robinson goes up for a shot against Etiwanda in the CIF Southern Section Open Division championship game at Cal Baptist on Feb. 23, 2024.
(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)
Jerzy Robinson, Sierra Canyon, basketball. Considered the No. 1 recruit for the class of 2026, she’s won gold medals the last two summers playing for the USA under-16 and under-17 national teams. She was named tournament MVP at the under-17 World Cup after averaging 20.9 points and 6.9 rebounds.
“I saw her play with USA basketball, I know without a doubt she’s gotten better,” coach Alicia Komaki said.
Asked what she has improved in, Robinson said, “Everything.”
Ontario Christian basketball star Kaleena Smith set the school scoring record and has her sights set on the career mark.
(Steve Galluzzo / Los Angeles Times)
Kaleena Smith, Ontario Christian, basketball. She averaged 34.9 points as a freshman. Whether shooting threes or driving to the basket, her offensive skills are advanced and exciting to watch. Ontario Christian could be the team to challenge Etiwanda for girls’ basketball supremacy.
Standout Etiwanda center Grace Knox (23).
(Steve Galluzzo)
Grace Knox, Etiwanda, basketball. The top player on the No. 1 team in California, Knox is a 6-foot-2 center who changes games with her defense. In July, she said she was down to four schools for her college choice: USC, Tennessee, Texas and Louisiana State.
Freshman Emily Song led Santa Margarita to the Division 1 girls’ golf title.
(Greg Townsend)
Emily Song, Santa Margarita, golf. Song helped the Eagles win the state championship in girls’ golf as a freshman. She shot 68 in the Division 1 championship match and was the Trinity League champion. Last year, as a 13-year-old, she was the youngest competing in the U.S. Women’s Amateur field.
Sadie Engelhardt reaches the finish line after running a 1,600-meter split of 4:33.95 that helped Ventura set the national outdoor record at the Mt. SAC Relays on April 20, 2024.
(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)
Sadie Engelhardt, Ventura, track. The reigning Gatorade national player of the year is gearing up for her senior year in cross-country and track. She owns the national record in the mile and one of the five best marks in the 1,500. She’s expected to make her season debut in the Woodbridge Cross-Country Classic on Sept. 20 at the Great Park in Irvine. She also has a 4.56 grade-point average and is committed to North Carolina State.
Swimmer Teagan O’Dell of Santa Margarita.
(Marni O’Dell)
Teagan O’Dell, Santa Margarita, swimming. The future Olympian is finally a senior and keeps setting records and taking home swimming trophies. She’s committed to California. She competed in the 100- and 200-meter backstroke events at the Olympic trials.
Orange Lutheran center fielder Kai Minor is an Oklahoma commit.
(Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times)
Kai Minor, Orange Lutheran, softball. The Oklahoma commit is so fast that steals and infield hits have been piling up through three years of high school softball. “Her speed is phenomenal,” coach Steve Milkos said. “She’s a five-tool player.”
Ki’ele Ho-Ching, Long Beach Poly, softball. She was the Moore League MVP as a sophomore infielder. Her uncle, Herman, was a standout football player for Poly in the 1990s.
Jailynn Robinson helped Orange Lutheran go unbeaten last season. She’s committed to UCLA.
(Orange Lutheran)
Jailynn Robinson, Orange Lutheran, water polo. The UCLA commit led the Lancers last season to a 31-0 record and was the Trinity League MVP.
BOYS
Brayden Burries of Eastvale Roosevelt goes up for shot against St. John Bosco’s Elzie Harrington (3).
(Nick Koza)
Brayden Burries, Eastvale Roosevelt, basketball. The 6-4 guard helped his team reach the Southern Section Open Division championship game last season and is one of the most sought-after prospects for the class of 2025.
Brandon McCoy gets fired up after a basket for St. John Bosco. He had 28 points in overtime win over Richmond Salesian.
(Nick Koza)
Brandon McCoy, St. John Bosco, basketball. The class of 2026 guard won a gold medal during the summer competing for the USA under-17 national team. His versatility, unselfishness and continued improvement make him a talent to admire.
Harvard-Westlake’s Nikolas Khamenia is 6-8 and a rising junior prospect.
(Nick Koza)
Nikolas Khamenia, Harvard-Westlake, basketball. The 6-8 senior won a gold medal playing with the under-18 national team and was MVP of the under-18 3×3 World Cup in Hungary, where he won another gold medal. He also won state and section titles with the Wolverines. He’s physical, versatile and has a work ethic second to none. He’s deciding his college choice among Gonzaga, Arizona, UCLA, North Carolina and Duke.
Tyran Stokes is 6 feet 7 and a junior basketball player at Sherman Oaks Notre Dame.
(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)
Tyran Stokes, Sherman Oaks Notre Dame, basketball. The 6-7 class of 2026 forward won a gold medal with McCoy this past summer. He’s moved from Napa to the San Fernando Valley with skills so impressive that people are already projecting him as a future NBA player.
Alijah Arenas of Chatsworth flies through the air against Washington Prep.
(Craig Weston)
Alijah Arenas, Chatsworth, basketball. The son of former NBA star Gilbert Arenas has returned for a third season with the Chancellors. He’s the City Section’s best player with offensive skills good enough to score 50 points in games if that’s what he needs to do.
Corona High’s Seth Hernandez circles the bases after hitting a two-run home run against visiting Huntington Beach in a Southern Section Division 1 semifinal.
(Jerry Soifer)
Seth Hernandez, Corona, baseball. The pitcher-outfielder whose fastball touched 100 mph during the summer could be the No. 1, 2 or 3 selection in next year’s amateur draft.
Jaden Soong celebrates after winning the Southern California Golf Assn. Amateur Championship at Saticoy Club in Somis on July 11, 2024.
(SCGA)
Jaden Soong, St. Francis, golf. He was the youngest ever to win the Southern California Amateur championship and played in the U.S. Amateur championship. Only a freshman, he’ll become an immediate contender for the Southern Section individual title.
Sophomore Tripp King of Loyola has elite written all over him when it comes to lacrosse.
(Mike Horowitz)
Tripp King, Loyola, lacrosse. Only a sophomore, he was the Mission League offensive player of the year in lacrosse as a freshman. “He’s special,” coach Jimmy Borell said.
Evan Noonan of Dana Hills wins the state title in the boys’ 3,200 meters at Buchanan High in Clovis on May 25, 2024.
(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)
Evan Noonan, Dana Hills, track. The state 3,200-meter champion is one of the best distance runners in the nation. He was the Gatorade state cross-country runner of the year as a junior.
Blake Fahlbusch of Loyola is a 6-foot-8 junior volleyball player.
(Loyola)
Blake Fahlbusch, Loyola, volleyball. Injured during his sophomore season, the 6-8 Fahlbusch is back and ready to dominate above the net. “If he stays healthy, he will be the top recruit in his class,” coach Mike Boehle said.
During March’s league meetings, reporters huddled around Sean Payton, one of football’s quarterback philosopher kings.
Between questions lobbed in his direction and with the upcoming NFL Draft a primary focus, the Denver Broncos head coach shared what would later become more than a passing thought about rookie quarterbacks.
“There’s a topic that I see and read about sometimes, and you guys would know this,” Payton said inside a ballroom at the swanky Orlando Ritz-Carlton. “Is it better to sit behind a starter or get thrown into a fire?”
Payton highlighted the Green Bay Packers’ lineage of Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love and the benefits of the multiyear education each replacement received by watching a longtime starter still slinging at the peak of his powers.
“That’s invaluable,” Payton said. “And yet, there are times when you don’t have that luxury.”
For those aware of history, the query may have sounded purely hypothetical. Denver’s last rookie Week 1 starting quarterback was John Elway in 1983. Payton, former coach of the New Orleans Saints, had never opened a regular season with a first-year passer under center.
One month later, with a roster lacking an obvious starter after releasing Russell Wilson, a Super Bowl champion but a poor fit for Payton’s scheme, the Broncos selected Oregon’s Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick. Payton’s hypothetical about the start-sit debate, one every franchise has faced over the decades, had become reality.
Denver drafting Nix meant six franchises in 2024 put themselves into this situation. Three plan to start their rookies in Week 1: the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, who drafted Heisman Trophy winners Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, respectively, and the Broncos with Nix.
The duo selected with the first and second overall picks by organizations long searching for an answer at the sport’s most valued position were always considered part of this club. Nix’s summer work turned him into a potential member. Minnesota Vikings rookie J.J. McCarthy’s chances ended when he suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Patriots’ Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick, may quickly ascend New England’s quarterback depth chart.
Tennessee Titans first-time head coach Brian Callahan is among those who believe the sooner incoming quarterbacks start, the better.
“That’s the one thing I’ve always believed,” said the ex-Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator who taught rookie day-one starter Joe Burrow. “The idea that quarterbacks learn more by sitting? I don’t subscribe to that.”
Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix chats with coach Sean Payton during the team’s rookie minicamp in May. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Organizational details are rarely the same, yet this highly scrutinized choice is always a defining moment.
Three-time Super Bowl-winning coach Andy Reid has tackled this matter before. The first start for Donovan McNabb, the Philadelphia Eagles’ No. 2 overall selection in the 1999 draft, came in Week 10. With Kansas City, Reid kept 2017 rookie Patrick Mahomes as Alex Smith’s backup except for an essentially meaningless Week 16 start despite the Chiefs boldly trading up from pick 27 to 10.
“The toughest thing for these young guys is the blitz game and the different coverages and disguises they’re coming into,” Reid said. “I believe in giving (the rookies) an opportunity, if you can, to see those things before you throw them in.”
With three titles in five Super Bowl appearances, plus other trips to the conference championship game, one can say waiting worked for Reid. However …
“I think there’s no substitute for playing,” Callahan said. “There’s no easier way to learn lessons than going through them physically.”
Green Bay’s offensive-minded head coach Matt LaFleur’s experiences led to a different conclusion.
“I do believe that some guys, if they’re thrown in there too early, get scars and start to lose their confidence,” LaFleur said in Orlando.
C.J. Stroud, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year, is a prime example of a passer who “comes in and lights the league on fire,” LaFleur said. Knowing most rookies won’t experience such steady highs, the Packers coach emphasized, “You want them to have a great knowledge base and maintain their confidence through the ups and the downs.”
A competitive player aware of Stroud’s exploits, Daniels recently told The Athletic, “Everybody’s path is different. C.J.’s rookie year was phenomenal. … Not too many rookies come in and do that.” At the same time, others needing more seasoning can “have a lot of success in the future.”
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No matter how bold or shaky the start-sit stance, one constant refrain from either camp sounds like a famous Whitney Houston lyric. The kid passers are our future. Teach and develop them well, and then let them lead the way. If only it were that simple.
“The hardest thing to do in sports, I think, is evaluate and develop a quarterback,” Commanders general manager Adam Peters said. “You want to make sure you do as much as you can to let them develop.”
The assessment from former NFL quarterback EJ Manuel, a 2013 first-round pick by Buffalo, comes from lived experiences.
“You have to have an infrastructure in place around him for development. That’s the most important part. Fans don’t have that patience, but those in charge have to,” Manuel said.
“If you don’t, you’ll look up in two years and return to the same place.”
Ex-Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan worked with rookie quarterback Joe Burrow in 2020. (Joe Robbins / Getty Images)
McCarthy’s college coach and former NFL quarterback, Jim Harbaugh, altered his opinion over time.
The 1987 late first-round quarterback waited three seasons before becoming a full-time starter. That likely contributed to the new Los Angeles Chargers head coach previously sharing Reid’s broad view. The 14-year NFL veteran and coach of the 2012 NFC champion San Francisco 49ers once saw the “big jump” from college to the pros as comparable to J.V. to varsity and high school to college football.
Harbaugh turned to second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick over the experienced Smith as the 2012 49ers pushed for a championship. Last college football season, with McCarthy, a two-year starter and future top-10 selection, Harbaugh coached Michigan to an undefeated national championship. Two months after winning the title, Harbaugh explained why he’d changed his tune.
“I’ve noticed that jump is not as big anymore,” Harbaugh said in Orlando during the AFC coaches’ breakfast. “Guys are coming from high school to college, and the quarterback is one of those positions now where they’re ready. … Going from college to pro, they’re able and ready to play quicker. Why is that? Probably a bunch of reasons, but they are well-trained coming out of high school (and) college.”
After an extraordinary final college season that catapulted his draft stock, Daniels is a perfect avatar for Harbaugh’s stance.
“Jayden probably made more progress than any quarterback coming out in the last five or six years,” one scout told The Athletic before the draft.
Washington acquired veteran signal callers over the years, including McNabb, but there’s no hope like first-round pick quarterback hope. Daniels is the third since 2012 for Washington when Robert Griffin III had fans believing the team’s quarterback struggles were over.
Despite new coach Dan Quinn half-heartedly pushing a summer quarterback competition, there was little doubt Washington would immediately start the prized rookie.
Though Daniels, 23, is older than some of his draft class peers, the Commanders never let him skip developmental steps.
“Let’s get really good, kick ass at this, and then we move on,” Quinn said this summer. “It doesn’t all have to be in one week or one month.”
The Commanders revamped nearly their entire football infrastructure before choosing Daniels, a five-year college starter at Arizona State and LSU who turns 24 in December.
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Hiring the defensive-minded Quinn brought a first-tier people-person to an organization desperately needing a hug. The offense’s “help wanted” sign remained until former Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury was convinced to become Washington’s offensive coordinator.
Kingsbury tutored Mahomes and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel in college and guided another passer with access to the mythical Heisman House, the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray. That might be considered enough to aid Daniels. But the Commanders didn’t stop there.
There was little doubt new coach Dan Quinn and the Commanders would start No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels this fall. (Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
Brian Johnson, the Eagles quarterbacks coach when 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts developed into an MVP candidate, became Washington’s assistant head coach and pass-game coordinator.
Quinn retained former Stanford quarterback Tavita Pritchard as Washington’s quarterbacks coach and hired David Blough, an active quarterback the previous five seasons, as the assistant quarterbacks coach. Super Bowl XXII hero Doug Williams returned to Washington’s front office.
“We got a bunch of former quarterbacks on the (staff),” said Kingsbury, a standout playmaker at Texas Tech. “Pointers, tips, things we can help him grow and expedite the process, we’re here for it.”
New England expanded its staff by hiring T.C. McCartney as its first quarterback coach in years. Former NFL quarterback — and recent Italian League player — Ryan Griffin joined Chicago’s staff.
The purposeful signing of another Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota, put a mentor in Washington’s quarterback room for Daniels. The No. 2 selection by Tennessee in 2015, Mariota considers the first two seasons the best of his career partly due to the veterans in the Titans’ quarterback room “who took care of me. … We’re trying to create that type of atmosphere here for Jayden.”
Manuel could only dream of such infrastructure.
“I didn’t get that luxury,” he lamented.
Manuel, the 16th pick and the lone quarterback selected in the first round in 2013, started the first five games as a rookie despite undergoing meniscus surgery soon after the Bills’ second preseason game. Kevin Kolb, Buffalo’s ersatz version of experienced help, also suffered a preseason injury. That left Buffalo and first-year head coach Doug Marrone with three options: use undrafted free-agent rookie Jeff Tuel, acquire/pay another vet or rush Manuel’s recovery.
“They more or less turned to me and said, ‘Hey, it’s been three and a half weeks. Let’s get out there,’” Manuel recalled during a phone call last month. Though not fully recovered, the rookie obliged. Following a promising opening chapter, Manuel bookended his pain by injuring his other knee.
He missed the next four regular-season games and six overall. Though he entered 2014 as Buffalo’s starter, Manuel was benched after four games. He didn’t throw another pass that season — Marrone’s last season as the Bills’ head coach — made three starts over the final two years of his rookie contract and was out of the league after the 2017 season.
Buffalo’s fixation on the short term rather than a years-long vision isn’t an anomaly.
Consecutive failures with top-three picks Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson punctuate the New York Jets’ eight-year stretch without a winning record. Both were traded after three seasons. In the quarterback desert after 2015 MVP Cam Newton lost his Superman cape, Carolina saw Darnold as a potential fix. That experiment fizzled. Two seasons later, the Panthers shipped a massive haul of assets to Chicago for the right to select Bryce Young first overall in 2023.
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Young endured a classic example of what happens when a newbie is paired with arguably the NFL’s most unstable franchise. The Panthers finished with a league-worst 2-15 record as Young was sacked 62 times. Meanwhile, having endured their version of quarterback purgatory for decades, the Bears drafted Williams No. 1 in April with a pick acquired from the Panthers.
Manuel’s broad advice is to let young quarterbacks “sit at least the first six games” to learn the clutch details of the job. Ideally, and beyond organizational patience, that would require a proven starter already on the roster. Having drafted Michael Penix Jr. this spring at No. 8 after signing Kirk Cousins to a massive multiyear contract, Atlanta will likely continue this approach for at least two seasons. But the shortage of viable starters means not everyone has that luxury of time.
A first-round pick in 2013, EJ Manuel would start just 18 games in his five-year NFL career. (Sam Greenwood / Getty Images)
For those who want to turn to the data for unequivocal answers on how quickly to start a rookie quarterback, think again.
Analytics guru and defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) creator Aaron Schatz has studied the options. “Every research project we’ve done on this has ended with this answer: ‘I don’t know.’”
Every side of this debate can cherry-pick Super Bowl titles and individual awards to claim conclusive proof. Schatz says only one standard for Year 1 exists when looking at outcomes for the 59 first-round quarterbacks this century.
“The typical norm for a rookie quarterback is to be below average,” said Schatz. “Even for a top pick or one who eventually turns out to be good.”
Defining “franchise quarterback” is nebulous and, from a debate/conversation perspective, often exhausting. Since finding a player who will be under center for years beyond his rookie contract is the primary goal, exploring the paths for those first-round picks who did or didn’t receive a contract extension might be illuminating. The list, pulled from TruMedia, begins in 2000 but includes neither the three selected in 2023 nor this year’s six.
• Week 1 starters. Of the 22, eight received a second consecutive contract from their original team: Burrow, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, Murray, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford
• Debut before Week 7. Of the 43 rookies in this category, 13 received a second consecutive contract from their original team: the initial eight names, Josh Allen (Week 2 debut), Justin Herbert (2), Daniel Jones (3), Ben Roethlisberger (3), Alex Smith (5)
• Debut Week 7 or later. Of the 13 in this category, six received a second consecutive contract from their original team: Jared Goff (11), Lamar Jackson (11), Mahomes (16), Eli Manning (11), Tua Tagovailoa (8), Michael Vick (9)
• Starting debut after drafted season. Of the 10 rookies, six received a second consecutive contract from their original team: Daunte Culpepper, Jordan Love, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers
By the money math, waiting beyond the first season might seem like the winning approach. LaFleur coached Rodgers, who began his career with three years as Favre’s backup, and Rodgers’ replacement, Love, a 2020 first-round selection. The luxury of having a four-time MVP meant not even considering rushing the Utah State alum’s development.
“It’s hard when a guy loses his confidence to recover from that,” LaFleur said.
David Carr never did entirely. Selected first overall in 2002 by the expansion Houston Texans, Carr started all 16 games as a rookie and was sacked 76 times. That remains the single-season high for any quarterback. Carr remained a full-time starter until 2006 and stayed on NFL rosters through 2012, but he never finished a season with over 16 touchdowns or a winning record as a starter.
The counterpoint? Peyton Manning, the first overall selection in 1998, led the league with 28 interceptions as the Colts went 3-13 in his rookie season. The smooth road to Canton began the following year.
Playing the waiting game is old school. Of the 10 quarterbacks making their first start in Year 2 or later, only Love was drafted after 2011. Love’s impressive first season as a starter led to him receiving a contract extension this summer that put him among the highest-paid quarterbacks.
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Before the draft, many expected the teams that selected Maye, 22, or McCarthy, 21, to allow a longer adjustment period for the inexperienced quarterbacks. The Patriots announced last week that Jacoby Brissett, a longtime spot starter and high-end backup, would be the Week 1 starter over Maye.
Landing on contending teams benefits any quarterback. Rodgers replaced Favre after Green Bay lost the NFC Championship Game following the 2007 season. Culpepper ascended to QB1 for a Vikings team coming off a 10-6 regular-season record and playoff appearance.
McCarthy’s injury officially gave Darnold a third and likely final chance to start, this time under the direction of head coach and play caller Kevin O’Connell.
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“So much depends on whether you have at least an average starter to use and the coach’s job security,” Manuel said. “Kevin O’Connell has that kind of time. He could have let J.J. McCarthy watch and learn before the knee injury.”
Based on a pre-draft interview with Daniels, Manuel dubbed him a “student of the game.” With a confident but even-keeled vibe, Daniels doesn’t back off the hype surrounding his draft status or the juxtaposition against RGIII, Stroud and other successful rookie quarterbacks.
“It’s going through the ups and downs, through adversity. I don’t compare myself to C.J.,” Daniels said. “It’s a competitive thing. I’m not coming in and expecting I will have a rookie year like that.”
Despite his analytical glass-half-empty analysis of rookie starters, Schatz conceded a silver lining.
“The expectation has to be that a rookie quarterback has to be bad, but there is hope,” he said. “That, at least, as a fan, gives you something to hang your hat on.”
Quarterback Peyton Manning struggled mightily as a rookie for the Colts in 1998. But he gained valuable experience that would help him to a Hall of Fame career. (John Ruthroff / AFP via Getty Images)
Washington’s intrigue surrounding Daniels intensified with its pre-draft homework on the quarterback whose electric running, Peters said, “kind of takes your soul as a defense.” Then, the internal conversation shifted to how they could improve him, no matter the tutoring pace.
“Whether that takes three months or three games or whatever, putting somebody into a space before they’re ready can be detrimental,” Quinn said. “That can set you back. You don’t want any setbacks.”
Coaches sought to protect Daniels this summer, emphasizing reps in two joint practices over preseason action, even if the rookie sometimes couldn’t quiet his aggressive nature. Quinn worked with Daniels in the preseason on the timing of his pregame routine while trainers helped set a weekly regimen.
The effort must go both ways — and it has. Daniels impressed teammates with his crack-of-dawn agenda by consistently beating them to Washington’s practice facility. Terry McLaurin lauded the rookie’s penchant for staying late to work with receivers, something Daniels did last week after the Commanders signed ex-Texan Noah Brown.
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Washington’s vision of altering its locker room culture included acquiring several notable veterans. In between basketball trash-talking with Bobby Wagner — and the linebacker calling out the offense’s play in practice — Daniels picks the brain of the future Hall of Famer for confirmation on what he sees with the defensive scheme.
Coordinators “get you figured out and make you so confused or play a little bit slower,” said Manuel, an ACC Network and SiriusXM college football analyst. “That half-second leads to tipped balls and interceptions and sacks.”
And in some instances, failure. History shows that only some teams are well equipped to help those attempting to play this fragile position.
Don’t blame salaries. The 2011 collective bargaining agreement severely limited rookie contract loot. “It’s not the money,” Manuel said. “Guys don’t get paid like Sam Bradford anymore. Maybe it is just the excitement, the unknown.”
Reid cites human nature. “People aren’t patient, so fan bases are impatient,” he said. “A lot of times, it can put a lot of pressure on that player.”
On the other hand, some feel that waiting a half-season or longer to play a highly drafted quarterback won’t help them eliminate negative qualities.
“There are hard lessons to learn in this position. They need to play, and they need to learn them,” Callahan said. Tennessee’s coach inherited strong-armed 2023 second-round pick and nine-game rookie starter Will Levis. “I think that the more that happens quickly, the better.”
There are few conclusions in the start or sit debate, but Washington and other teams with first-round rookies now and in the future must take logical steps toward helping the cause. Otherwise, history is bound to repeat itself.
(Top photo of Jayden Daniels: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
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